Frontier Airlines EarlyReturns - New Route Cuts Including Newark

Looks like the last day of Newark is 3/31. All the rest of the existing MKE and MCI schedule seems intact through summer at this point. That includes the rest of the RJ markets at Milwaukee.

The only further item of question I see is that the main scheule page won't bring up Boston as a destination from MKE, and vice versa. The Boston flights planned to resume in later April never "worked" with the rest of the MKE schedule. If they do plan to offer MKE-BOS, they need to rework something else in the schedule.

MKE-BOS is still bookable elsewhere on the website, including a full array of fares. So perhaps it is not being pulled. But updates to the front page (which include those new cities mentioned in the other thread) may have purposely included the removal of MKE-BOS as a valid search in preparation for official removal coming.

Looks like the last day of Newark is 3/31. All the rest of the existing MKE and MCI schedule seems intact through summer at this point. That includes the rest of the RJ markets at Milwaukee.

Actually...it might be much worse. The online booking doesn't show these cuts, but if you look at the online schedule there are several cuts.

MCI-MKE
MCI-HOU
MKE-PHL
MKE-DFW
MKE-PHX

DCA only shows 1x/day instead of 2x.

Also, while CMH, IND, OMA, BNA and RHI all remain as 2x/day RJ, it looks like GRR ends in April. This leaves three lines of RJ flying.

We'll see if these are really the new saleable schedule shortly, or if something else is up.

Looks like MCI-LAX, MCI-SFO, and MCI-SEA are all missing too.

Also...

DEN-SAT
DEN-BOI
DEN-GRB
DEN-RFD
DEN-ASE. The Q400's are leaving.

Well that kind of stinks. The Q's leaving isn't surprising, and I wonder if they'll try again getting the E90 certified for ASE. Either way it probably wasn't paying for itself anymore.

I guess I can say goodbye to AUS-MCI-MKE. Connecting in DEN gives me more miles but is less conveinient.

Surprised to see SAT leave, but the 1x daily wasn't something they could sustain. It was 3x daily not too long ago. RFD is probably seasonal with CUN service? We already guessed about GRB I think.

Looks like most of the cuts in MKE and MCI are what is funding the new expansion. Surprised they are keeping the RJ flying as is but removing GRR. I was under the impression GRR has been a solid market. Its a 20 minute flight versus a 5 hour drive.

Its too bad they returned those 2 E90s...

Thanks for changing the title of the thread. Had I known it was so much more than Newark I would have titled appropriately. So far it's only Newark that is pulled from the actual inventory for sale, but I suspect within a few days that will catch up and these other cuts will appear.

Actually...it might be much worse. The online booking doesn't show these cuts, but if you look at the online schedule there are several cuts.

MCI-MKE
MCI-HOU
MKE-PHL
MKE-DFW
MKE-PHX

DCA only shows 1x/day instead of 2x.

Also, while CMH, IND, OMA, BNA and RHI all remain as 2x/day RJ, it looks like GRR ends in April. This leaves three lines of RJ flying.

We'll see if these are really the new saleable schedule shortly, or if something else is up.

Looks like MCI-LAX, MCI-SFO, and MCI-SEA are all missing too.



I think most of us knew this was coming.

The MKE cuts are hardly surprising. For BOS and PHL, the planned schedules for spring were questionable at best. It was better for Frontier to simply throw in the towel on these routes. I suspect that once the situation with RHI gets worked out the remaing regional jets will be parked resulting in the elimination of IND, CMH, BNA, and OMA as well.

I guess this probably means DCA and LGA are in danger of being cut, especially with Delta coming into the New York market this summer.

By my count, this leaves Frontier with 18 flights in MKE. Park the regional jets and that number falls below 10. Over the last three years the MKE operation has gone from 90 flights down to possibly less than 10. An amazing turn of events.

It will be interesting to see if American or U.S. Airways backfill any of these cuts with increased frequency or the use of larger aircrfat.

The airline wars in MKE are finally over. Let's see what Southwest decides to do in the market.

Frontier's interest in MCI seems to be wanning as well. It looks like the West Coast flying is shifting to the newest focus city in COS.

By my count, this leaves Frontier with 18 flights in MKE. Park the regional jets and that number falls below 10. Over the last three years the MKE operation has gone from 90 flights down to possibly less than 10. An amazing turn of events.

That's too bad. An 80% loss of flights.

At MKE, F9 has gates D27-D51 and D53-D55 (according to the airport website). So many gates for that number of flights. It's really unfortunate. I wonder if part of the D concourse will have to be mothballed.

A message is displayed today on Frontier's website over the normal link to "view schedules":

Check back on Friday, Feb. 10 to view an updated schedule.

Official press release on additions, but no mention of dropped service, yet.

Story to be reported this afternoon on WTMJ Radio. So much for the announcement coming first from Frontier.

http://www.620wtmj.com/shows/listen

This was the lead story on the news, along with an earlier taped interview with consultant Michael Boyd. Reporter said that "sources" told WTMJ News... it's funny that the information is almost verbatim from this board.

The newscast I heard on TMJ was quoting the flight attendant union saying it had been notified of the cuts.

So much for the announcement coming first from Frontier.

In this day and age - and internet and whistle blowers and just plain old gossip - I don't know how the story could possibly come from Frontier first.

I was quite shocked to see all the new service listed on airliners.net many hours before Frontier had said a word.

davy

And, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel picks up the story:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/wisconsin/frontier-to-cut-flights-from-milwaukee-k44532n-139067274.html

From WTMJ Radio:

http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/139058794.htm

These service reductions are not easy for any of us, as they affect some of our team members; however, they are fundamental and necessary changes for Frontier, which will enable significant profitability improvements and generate greater job opportunities and security for the majority of our 5,000 employees.

I presume that the "team members" who are affected by the service reductions are at MKE, and the ones with "greater job opportunities" are at DEN.

We were informed today the MKE and GRR E135/45, MKE E190 and DEN Q400 Bases will all close May 1st.

Quite a shame. Frontier always made a nice backup. It really is unlikely that F9 will increase their frequencies in the future to the levels that they were. Then again, pricing may stabilise and th

I really hope that the legacy carriers up their lift. I can wish that DL would move out of E in favour of D, never going to happen, and that *A would move to E.

A post on airliners.net says that Best Care Club at MKE closes 05/31/2012.

How much longer will it be until F9 moves from D Concourse at MKE?

A post on airliners.net says that Best Care Club at MKE closes 05/31/2012.

How much longer will it be until F9 moves from D Concourse at MKE?

I'm not entirely sure why they think they'll move out of D. Yeah they'll downsize a ton but I'd more expect another airline to move to D and join them. Maybe American.

I agree that it's is unlikely that MKE will be restored in the foreseeable future. It is too bad. I wonder if they had had more E90s (like was planned) they would have kept more in MKE or if the losses were still that bad where it made sense to move them.

I'm told that MKE-LGA and MKE-DCA are only "safe" through the summer schedule.

Frontier has really struggled on the core legacy Midwest routes. From MKE, LGA, DCA, DFW, and BOS tended to be the true bread & butter routes for Midwest. While the hyper-competitive fare environment is definately a factor, I have to point the finger at Republic for really screwing-up the MKE operations. Looking back, Bedford said time and time again that they did not have the right assets in MKE to compete effectively (namely the smaller and less economical E170s and of course the small regional jets). Yet, there never seemed to be a priority to bring most of the E190s to MKE where they could have been used effectively early on to keep AirTran in check. Then they had the real blunder last winter by upgauging BOS/LGA/DCA to Airbus jets when traffic weakens significantly. The resulting huge losses shouldn't have been a surprise.

I think it's quite likely that by fall Frontier may only be operating MKE-DEN.

How much has changed in a ten-month span!


Apr 14, 2011
MILWAUKEE (April 14, 2011) – Frontier Airlines, a wholly owned subsidiary of Republic Airways Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET), expands its Wisconsin service on April 18, 2011, with the addition of its fifth destination in the Badger state – Rhinelander Oneida County Airport (RHI).

Frontier will launch daily nonstop service between its hub at Milwaukee’s General Mitchell International Airport (MKE) and Rhinelander. The service in both directions will include continuing service to Ironwood Gogebic-Iron County Airport (IWD) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. The route will be operated on Frontier’s 37-seat Embraer 135 jet aircraft.

“Our new service reflects Frontier’s ongoing commitment to providing the people of Wisconsin with convenient and affordable air travel,” said Daniel Shurz, Vice President of Strategy and Planning. “Travelers from throughout the state can now enjoy our reliable service to Milwaukee and connections to more than 70 destinations across the United States, Mexico and Costa Rica.”

Also on April 18, the carrier will begin nonstop service between Milwaukee and Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) in Michigan.

In addition to the new Wisconsin and Michigan service, Frontier is enhancing and expanding its service from Milwaukee to destinations outside the Midwest. On April 4, the airline added a fourth frequency to New York-La Guardia International Airport (LGA) and on May 13 will add a fourth frequency to Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). It will also add nonstop service between Milwaukee and San Francisco International Airport (SFO) and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) beginning May 13, and between Milwaukee and San Diego International Airport (SAN) starting May 14. Additionally, Frontier has extended its seasonal service between Milwaukee and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) until May 12; that service was originally scheduled to end April 17.

“These routes are popular with both business and leisure travelers. The increased frequencies and new nonstop service will make it easier than ever for our guests to find a schedule that meets their needs,” Shurz pointed out.

Emphasis added to copy.

It won't be long before the current Frontier schedule will look like Frontier's pre-YX schedule at MKE. What original YX routes will be left, systemwide, after the Frontier service slashing?

I think it's quite likely that by fall Frontier may only be operating MKE-DEN.

I second that thought. By year's end they will only need one gate at MKE.

Story from the Business Journal regarding jobs at MKE, related to service cutbacks:

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/blog/2012/02/shifting-of-frontier-airlines-jobs-out.html

I second that thought. By year's end they will only need one gate at MKE.

That may be optimistic if nobody buys the airline. They could just pull out all together.

MKE has invested heavily in food & beverage concession upgrades on D; not the case on E. DL could easily move over to D and move the Sky Club to the old Best Care Club space. I don't know how or whether the DL lease agreements would permit such a move, but I bet they could make it work.

If any concourse is going to be mothballed, it should be E.

Probably not. E goes back to the NorthCentral days. It was built specifically for NC and inherited by NW and now DL. I understand Delta is happy there. They are not going to move just to play musical gates.

Probably not. E goes back to the NorthCentral days. It was built specifically for NC and inherited by NW and now DL. I understand Delta is happy there. They are not going to move just to play musical gates.

It isn't tough to give a carrier an incentive to move.

Another Business Journal story - this one with comments from MKE spokesperson Pat Rowe.

The Business Journal's Rovito was told

...that airport officials spoke with Frontier management on Thursday about the cuts.

It isn't tough to give a carrier an incentive to move.

And less tough to let one of your biggest tenants stay where they are.

That may be optimistic if nobody buys the airline. They could just pull out all together.

Even before the merger, F9 had a few daily departures to DEN and seasonal CUN service out of MKE. I imagine they are willing to keep the seasonal Florida flying and if F9 takes over the Apple flying out of MKE next year they'll have a presence, but it'll be nowhere near the current levels. It's really too bad, I just made Summit and am moving back to MKE this year. :(

It's really too bad, I just made Summit and am moving back to MKE this year. :(

Is the :( because you just made Summit or because you are moving back to MKE? :D

MKE has invested heavily in food & beverage concession upgrades on D; not the case on E. DL could easily move over to D and move the Sky Club to the old Best Care Club space. I don't know how or whether the DL lease agreements would permit such a move, but I bet they could make it work.

If any concourse is going to be mothballed, it should be E.

I'm very disappointed that things are turning out this way for Frontier and the former YX employees that are still at MKE.

Losing the BCC is a major loss for MKE, and also decreases the value of Classic Plus.

The decision makers at DL should at least consider moving to Concourse D. Taking over the BCC would give them a much better SkyClub, perhaps at a lower cost than renovating the existing Club on E (don't know whether they had any plans to remodel that one, or were planning to keep as is). This is all pure speculation.

Will the F9 call center still remain at the maintenance facility?

I'm very disappointed that things are turning out this way for Frontier and the former YX employees that are still at MKE.

Will the F9 call center still remain in the bowels of the D concourse?

If I'm not mistaken, I believe that the call center moved into remodeled facilities at the former YX hangar about 1-1/2 years ago.

If I'm not mistaken, I believe that the call center moved into remodeled facilities at the former YX hangar about 1-1/2 years ago.

You're right...I will update the post.

Rich Rovito of the Business Journal will be interviewed on WTMJ Radio this afternoon, to discuss what he has found out.

Now they are interviewing Jay Sorensen about F9, who says "it will be very little time, before they cease to exist."

Is the :( because you just made Summit or because you are moving back to MKE? :D

The :( is because I may be limited in my options for using my status after I move back. Looking forward to being home though :)!

If I'm not mistaken, I believe that the call center moved into remodeled facilities at the former YX hangar about 1-1/2 years ago.

To move everyone to Denver they will have to expand the current GO or lease other office space. Prior to office and operations consolidating with Republic and Midwest, F9 leased office space away from the Frontier HQ where it housed the call center and other related functions. They moved the call center to the newly renovated GO offices once other functions moved out.

There are a still a few back office functions at the MKE airport in D concourse, in the cargo offices and at the hanger. Not sure how long they will be around though.

Moving the call center depends if they will be able lease out the hanger to any and if they want them there. The F9 call center did used to be in ABQ prior to being shut down when F9 combined with Midwest.

I'm very disappointed that things are turning out this way for Frontier and the former YX employees that are still at MKE.

Will the F9 call center still remain at the maintenance facility?

Rich Rovito of the Business Journal says people already being given notice at the call center at MKE.

Rich Rovito of the Business Journal says people already being given notice at the call center at MKE.

A few may have been, but I wonder if he puts a number on that. From the Frontier Q and A yesterday:

Q. Will there be any changes in the Milwaukee reservations center?

A. The Milwaukee Reservations Center is not impacted by this change.
As we reallocate flying, our customer projections for 2012 remain
essentially unchanged, with just a new mix of markets. As Reservations
call volumes are correlated with passenger volumes, we need the
experienced reservations staff that we have in place. We continue to
believe that having redundant call centers in Milwaukee and Denver
supports our business, especially in the event of a weather or
technology impact that may disrupt one of the centers at any given
time.

davy

Rich Rovito of the Business Journal will be interviewed on WTMJ Radio this afternoon, to discuss what he has found out.

Now they are interviewing Jay Sorensen about F9, who says "it will be very little time, before they cease to exist."

No way! Jay Sorensen ripping Frontier? Never! :rolleyes:

No way! Jay Sorensen ripping Frontier? Never! :rolleyes:

It's true, it's true - LOL:

http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/139132389.html

"Frontier Airlines expert believes we're watching 'slow death of the airline'

How he thinks that will help anyone is beyond me - but perhaps he doesn't want to help?

People tell me that I'm wrong to see a strong anti-Frontier bias in the Milwaukee media, but I haven't seen much change since Republic acquired Midwest and with people like Mr. Rovito and Mr. Sorenson around, who needs enemies?

davy

It's true, it's true - LOL:

http://www.620wtmj.com/news/local/139132389.html

"Frontier Airlines expert believes we're watching 'slow death of the airline'

How he thinks that will help anyone is beyond me - but perhaps he doesn't want to help?

People tell me that I'm wrong to see a strong anti-Frontier bias in the Milwaukee media, but I haven't seen much change since Republic acquired Midwest and with people like Mr. Rovito and Mr. Sorenson around, who needs enemies?

davy

The MKE flying public isn't ripping Frontier because I think they don't really care anymore. Midwest is gone and they have moved on. The people ripping Frontier is former employees of Midwest and their union. I can't say that I blame them. MKE had a shot at becoming a true third airport solution for Chicago... Unfortunately it had to be low fares and not convenience that would lure patrons from South of the state line. Maybe in 10 years time and an updated Hiawatha line between Chicago and MKE, will we see another opportunity to become a third airport for Chitown. In the meantime Southwest will have opportunity to expand some if they wish at MKE without worry of Frontier trying to match them.

The MKE flying public isn't ripping Frontier because I think they don't really care anymore. Midwest is gone and they have moved on. The people ripping Frontier is former employees of Midwest and their union.

People keep telling me that, too, but those strident voices can do enormous p.r. damage. I would imagine a number of people have been scared off from booking today by the Sorenson comment, and it isn't just today.

I used to think MKE could be "sorted out" for Frontier, now I am not at all sure.

MKE has Southwest. Be happy.

davy

a very quick look at some departures now has F9 with less daily flights than UACO (21). I wouldn't be surprised with UA increasing flights to EWR, and hopefully even adding in IAD.

a very quick look at some departures now has F9 with less daily flights than UACO (21). I wouldn't be surprised with UA increasing flights to EWR, and hopefully even adding in IAD.

There is always some airline to fill in the void. I have hope for MKE that someday it will be the airport we all want it to be. As for Sorensen's comment about Frontier dying a slow death.... He might be right. I am for free market myself, so if Frontier isn't a viable business, then it shouldn't exist. The big problem for Frontier is another airline probably would never be interested in buying them because they are a DEN centric airline. I believe DEN can support two hubs long term, but not three. Southwest is really aggressive in DEN and I don't see them laying off.

As for Sorensen's comment about Frontier dying a slow death.... He might be right. I am for free market myself, so if Frontier isn't a viable business, then it shouldn't exist.

I have no problem with that. I am actually amazed that Frontier is still around. For fourteen years, people have been telling me it is dying (or will be crushed).

Maybe one day they'll be right.

The big problem for Frontier is another airline probably would never be interested in buying them because they are a DEN centric airline. I believe DEN can support two hubs long term, but not three. Southwest is really aggressive in DEN and I don't see them laying off.

People have been telling me that since Southwest first announced DEN, too, but Frontier is still there, regained the #2 spot last November and will serve a record number of destinations from DEN this summer.

davy

MKE had a shot at becoming a true third airport solution for Chicago... Unfortunately it had to be low fares and not convenience that would lure patrons from South of the state line. Maybe in 10 years time and an updated Hiawatha line between Chicago and MKE, will we see another opportunity to become a third airport for Chitown. In the meantime Southwest will have opportunity to expand some if they wish at MKE without worry of Frontier trying to match them.

Wisconsin cancelling the Madison-Milwaukee rail was another nail in the coffin for MKE as a major hub airport. Bringing those passengers to feed MKE would have boosted traffic, since MKE, unlike ORD or MDW, has a convenient Amtrak intercity train station. As it was, Midwest's hub was failing, and Frontier has been unable to turn it around, in spite of substantial money and effort expended to do so, as has been well chronicled here. They have basically said MKE doesn't work, and we're packing our bags and heading back to DEN, where we have had some success.

RIP Midwest Express.

So after this latest round of cuts, F9 will have 18 flights out of MKE. Can someone list them for me?

RIP Midwest Express.

Um - Midwest died a long time ago, before Republic/Frontier took charge..

I guess I'm a disruptive element here. I thought it was a Frontier board, I didn't realize it was a Midwest/MKE board.

I wish you all nothing but the best. As I said, you have Southwest - be happy.

Hooroo. :-)

davy

So after this latest round of cuts, F9 will have 18 flights out of MKE. Can someone list them for me?

Here they are...

0550 DEN
0714 LGA
0715 MCO
0720 IND
0835 BNA
0840 OMA
0859 DEN
1235 CMH
1247 RHI
1420 DEN
1425 OMA
1430 DCA
1520 BNA
1551 LGA
1605 IND
1905 DEN
1915 RHI
1925 CMH

The list is scary. One DCA flight? That was one of the solid routes. It will also vanish with no early AM departure. The above list gives MKE pax virtually no reason to be loyal to F9.

People tell me that I'm wrong to see a strong anti-Frontier bias in the Milwaukee media, but I haven't seen much change since Republic acquired Midwest and with people like Mr. Rovito and Mr. Sorenson around, who needs enemies?

davy

You keep saying this (here and on other forums) but I have to respectfully disagree.

When Republic acquired Midwest, the news coverage in the mainstream media was overwhelmingly positive. It was the same when Republic announced that they were dropping the Midwest name, when the badger was unveiled for one of the E190 tails, etc. Republic and Frontier certainly weren't portrayed as the Midwest killer as you like to say.

As for Rovito and Sorenson, they've had an axe to grind against Midwest long before Republic entered the picture. Sorenson and his wife both worked at Midwest at one point in time (I believe she was fired). In recent years, Sorenson's consulting business has done a fair amount of work for AirTran. He's hardly an objective source but tends to be the go to guy for the local media.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel has actually treated Frontier better than Midwest in its coverage. Throughout the late 1990s and 2000s, the Journal Sentinel wasn't always so kind in its portrayal of Midwest (some of that negative coverage was rightfully deserved).

With all of that said some of the blame for the collapse of Frontier in MKE is due to mismanagement on the part of Republic (using the wrong aircraft on the wrong routes, a poor revenue management strategy, etc.) They deserve to take some flak in the media for this as those decisions have caused the loss of a thousand + jobs and will have a negative impact on the local economy.

I guess I'm a disruptive element here. I thought it was a Frontier board, I didn't realize it was a Midwest/MKE board.

I wish you all nothing but the best. As I said, you have Southwest - be happy.



This is indeed a Frontier board. Since Midwest was merged into Frontier and a hub operation existed in MKE until recently, talking about both is fair game IMO. It seems the ghosts of Midwest still linger.

I don't have a horse in this race anymore. Like you, I have said from the outset that the situation in MKE was not sustainable long-term. It's finally getting sorted out - not in the way I thought - but it's being sorted out nonetheless. In the long run, I think MKE may be better off without a true hub airline (look at RDU as an example).

However, I think we need to acknowledge that there are many MKE based individuals who participate in this forum (both travelers and employees) who will be significantly impacted by all of these changes. While you bring an interesting and provocative perspective to this board, I think it's a bit dismissive to tell these same people that they're lucky to have Southwest.

So where do we go from here? Will Delta add more MKE flights? Will American go back to mainline service on MKE-DFW? Will new airlines enter the market? Will WN go in for the kill and add more flights to get Frontier completely out of the market?

The mergers are killing MKE, to be sure, with no competition between Southwest and AirTran for example and Frontier essentially pulling out. I anticipate the feeder routes will soon be gone -- what will they have to feed into?

I think Frontier needs to make one more cut, though. Bedford.

A message is displayed today on Frontier's website over the normal link to "view schedules":

Quote:
Check back on Friday, Feb. 10 to view an updated schedule.


This message, first displayed on Feb 9, is still on F9's website today, Feb 11.

So where do we go from here? Will Delta add more MKE flights? Will American go back to mainline service on MKE-DFW? Will new airlines enter the market? Will WN go in for the kill and add more flights to get Frontier completely out of the market?

I doubt we'll see too much action right away. I think there will be a settling period until F9 is fully sorted out. Like many have mentioned the ERJ routes still need to be sorted out, but they may wait until Fall if they think they can turn a profit on them. Unfortunately it looks like the future has a lot more connections for us MKE folk.

The mergers are killing MKE, to be sure, with no competition between Southwest and AirTran for example and Frontier essentially pulling out. I anticipate the feeder routes will soon be gone -- what will they have to feed into?

I think Frontier needs to make one more cut, though. Bedford.

Bedford isn't the CEO of Frontier anymore. These recent decisions had the approval (and possibly influence) of the new President and CEO David Siegel.

I guess I'm a disruptive element here. I thought it was a Frontier board, I didn't realize it was a Midwest/MKE board.

I wish you all nothing but the best. As I said, you have Southwest - be happy.

Hooroo. :-)

davy

Just a reminder as to the exact scenario...


RJET bought YX
RJET bought F9
Decision made by RJET to name combined Midwest+Frontier "Frontier"


Frontier did not buy Midwest.

A great number of the regular participants on this board were active partipants on the Midwest forum, prior to the name change and merging of the two boards. A good number of F9 customers are based or travel frequently to/thru MKE.

The profound changes being made by RJET/F9 will impact a great number of these fliers, and thus, impact Frontier. The posts here have been totally relevant.

So where do we go from here?

It's a good question.

I think we need to wait and see what Southwest does in MKE. At the moment they can't pull BOS, LGA, or DCA because those routes carry so much connecting traffic for MSP, West Coast, etc. It will be interesting to see what happens once (if) a codeshare with AirTran is added and the integration/network rationalization kicks into high gear.

Besides Southwest, there is an opportunity for new carriers to enter the market or existing carriers to add capacity.

Should Southwest end MKE-BOS, I think JetBlue might enter the market and perhaps add a few flight to NYC, Florida, etc.

For existing carriers, I wouldn't be surprised to see U.S. Airways increase PHL service (both in frequency and equipment upgauges) and American to reinstate some mainline service. Perhaps they'd finally add MIA flights as well. U.S. Airways would likely add DCA service if Southwest pulls out as well.

Delta is probably best positioned to take advantage of Frontier's pullbacks. I've heard that they plan on putting 757s back in MKE and possibly adding more DTW flights or even reinstating SLC. They have access regional jet lift so maybe we'd see a few point to point routes.

Most of the smaller regional markets are likely gone forever.

The worst case scenario would be if Southwest decided to scale back significantly but I don't think that is likely at this point.

Perhaps this is slightly off-topic, perhaps not. If you consider it so, my apologies.

There are, perhaps, a lot of MKE and (former) YX folks on this board, but I'm not one of 'em. The only flying to MKE that I've done has involved a car and an interstate highway, and that was a long time ago :D

Anyway, it is always sad to see contraction and to see hopes and dreams go awry, but at another level, I think also that it is a natural part of the cycle of life. While service at MKE is waning, other service is ramping up. (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frontier-airlines-earlyreturns/1312041-bunch-new-cities-coming.html)

I think that the question of F9's survival is a far different question and of greater scope than the nature of its presence at MKE. As distressing and inconvenient as it surely will be for those of us who frequent MKE, I think that it is unavoidable that F9 must do what it can to be profitable or the entire airline will cease to exist.

My 2¢, worth every penny of what you paid for 'em.

It's a good question.

I think we need to wait and see what Southwest does in MKE. At the moment they can't pull BOS, LGA, or DCA because those routes carry so much connecting traffic for MSP, West Coast, etc. It will be interesting to see what happens once (if) a codeshare with AirTran is added and the integration/network rationalization kicks into high gear.

Besides Southwest, there is an opportunity for new carriers to enter the market or existing carriers to add capacity.

Should Southwest end MKE-BOS, I think JetBlue might enter the market and perhaps add a few flight to NYC, Florida, etc.

For existing carriers, I wouldn't be surprised to see U.S. Airways increase PHL service (both in frequency and equipment upgauges) and American to reinstate some mainline service. Perhaps they'd finally add MIA flights as well. U.S. Airways would likely add DCA service if Southwest pulls out as well.

Delta is probably best positioned to take advantage of Frontier's pullbacks. I've heard that they plan on putting 757s back in MKE and possibly adding more DTW flights or even reinstating SLC. They have access regional jet lift so maybe we'd see a few point to point routes.

Most of the smaller regional markets are likely gone forever.

The worst case scenario would be if Southwest decided to scale back significantly but I don't think that is likely at this point.

I agree. I do not see WN cutting back anytime soon. I was pleasantly suppressed to see MKE-SEA,SFO and LAX stay. With frontier gone MKE is theirs for the taking. I hope they can find a way to expand service. I was in Milwaukee a few months ago and that city really needs companies to invest in it. The north side looks worse today then it did in 1993. Thats great news about Delta. Maybe they will also add MKE-LAX. They have been expanding their operations at LAX.

Perhaps this is slightly off-topic, perhaps not. If you consider it so, my apologies.

There are, perhaps, a lot of MKE and (former) YX folks on this board, but I'm not one of 'em. The only flying to MKE that I've done has involved a car and an interstate highway, and that was a long time ago :D

Anyway, it is always sad to see contraction and to see hopes and dreams go awry, but at another level, I think also that it is a natural part of the cycle of life. While service at MKE is waning, other service is ramping up. (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frontier-airlines-earlyreturns/1312041-bunch-new-cities-coming.html)

I think that the question of F9's survival is a far different question and of greater scope than the nature of its presence at MKE. As distressing and inconvenient as it surely will be for those of us who frequent MKE, I think that it is unavoidable that F9 must do what it can to be profitable or the entire airline will cease to exist.

My 2¢, worth every penny of what you paid for 'em.

Not off topic at all. Can't disagree at all that F9 needs to do what it can to survive, and I think much of my disappointment is more that MKE couldn't make it work. F9/RJET gave it a try, expanded service, and couldn't make it work. My fear all along has been MKE will actually have even less service in a few years as no one has been able to make it very profitable.

Um - Midwest died a long time ago, before Republic/Frontier took charge..

davy

I said Midwest EXPRESS, where I was cracking crab claws between DEN and MKE. Some fine memories.

Midwest, however, hung on until Republic/Frontier took charge.

The word Express has a different meaning on this forum, as the MKE crew will understand.

Daze

TMJ4 had an article based on this thread

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/139157939.html

Jay Sorenson says:

"What we're watching now is the slow death of the airline,"... "Milwaukeeans have enjoyed a tremendous benefit -- a competitive outcome -- of very low fares and lots of flights. That's not going to stay."

Any thoughts on this?

okay, who's the lurker?

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/139157939.html

I have said from the outset that the situation in MKE was not sustainable long-term. It's finally getting sorted out - not in the way I thought - but it's being sorted out nonetheless. In the long run, I think MKE may be better off without a true hub airline (look at RDU as an example).

However, I think we need to acknowledge that there are many MKE based individuals who participate in this forum (both travelers and employees) who will be significantly impacted by all of these changes.


We knew that it was pretty much inevitable that something would give in Milwaukee, but that knowledge doesn't really soften the blow much.

The shakeout obviously costs a lot of local jobs. It also means a much worse situation for Milwaukee business travelers. When looking at the shakeout overall (not specificlaly just this weekend's cuts):

--30 nonstop MKE destinations served in the past few years are gone or on the block.

--More driving to destinations under 6 hours.

--More connections and less ability to do business day trips.

--Far fewer destinations served with aircraft with premium seating available.

--Countless millions of banked Frontier frequent flyer miles in the community are far less useful, and potentially soon only useful to the west.

--Thousands of Frontier credit cards in the community which likely no longer justify keeping / paying an annual fee on, but a credit score hit for closing out a long-term credit card.

--Much more difficult to concentrate miles on a single carrier, and to earn elite status. (And for many people in MKE, too many important markets on Southwest have infrequent and/or highly-circuitous schedules like MKE-BWI-CLE to be useful.)


So for many of us in the MKE business travel trenches, the shakeout means a lot more driving, a lot more connections, a lot of banked miles with far less utility, a credit card of questionable value, and few prospects of ever earning elite FF benefits again.


I don't post this to find fault with Frontier or their recent actions. They are in the business to make money, and what they are doing is what they believe is in their best financial interest. Now there's plenty which can be said about how they handled things all along, plenty of "what if's" (both internal and external), etc. But that can be for a different post. (I'm already getting daggers shot across the room at me that I'm wasting a beautful Sunda morning online!)


As for what Southwest will do here in Milwaukee, well, I'm not going to hold my breath. Clearly they will have some benefit from Frontier's decisions. And even my worst-case-but-fairly-plausible scenarios have Southwest at around 20 daily flights here.

But I have several reasons why I don't think Southwest will be the white knight here.

(1) There's no certainty that Frontier pullbacks with make Milwaukee so much more profitable that Southwest will keep everything FL/WN has. As an example, if you go back a couple of years, Indianapolis had AirTran, Southwest, and Northwest/Delta all beating each other up on flights west. Now Indy has no nonstop flights to the west coast at all, a Southwest monopoly (not even WN + FL but just WN) to Vegas, and WN and US to Phoenix. When there's active competition, there's often a strong resistance to "blinking first" for fear it will strengthen your competitor. We may see that happen here.

(2) The smallest plane the dominant airline files here is 117 seats now, which will likely go up with slimline seats. With serious question marks over the 717's role with Southwest beyond a few more years, Southwest's smallest plane might soon be 143-seat 737's. That's simply too much aircraft for many Milwaukee markets without a lot of hub flow.

(3) That Southwest / AirTran has not pulled more assets (including slots) out of Milwaukee is not...at this point...a vote of confidence for the east-west hub. At this point it seems increasingly clear (and not just to me) that Southwest wasn't prepared to integrate AirTran and is still figuring it out. Leaving AirTran intact for now...including bag and seat fees which appear critical to making a buck in their network...is not going to continue forever.

(4) The notion that Milwaukee has an important role to play in relieving Midway congestion is not likely to save the day. The success of so-called "reliever hubs" to take pressure off of congested airports is about as good as "airline within an airline" launches. Airlines keep coming back to the well on the idea of using a secondary hub as a relief for a different crowded one, and it always ends up being pulled.

(5) The DCA and LGA slots are critical for the success of east-west Milwaukee, and when Southwest finally is able to do more than just let AirTran function as-is, it still does not seem logcal that Milwaukee will retain most of their access east. Currently from LGA there are 5x to Milwaukee and 5x to Midway, among Southwest's biggest markets. Currently from DCA there are 4x to Milwaukee and 0x to Midway. How long will that last? And for those who say that Midway is just too crowded to add DCA and more LGA, note that they are making room to add two Akron flights later this summer. LGA-MKE and DCA-MKE are not financial disasters to deal with now like CAK-MKE is. But when Southwest actually starts to integrate AirTran, does anyone think they will say the best use of LGA and DCA assets are to Milwaukee? That dosn't necessarily mean zero Milwaukee flights to the east, but it might well mean enough cuts to make Milwaukee east-west not work. East coast assets might be even less profitable for Southwest to use on Milwaukee if US, DL or someone else fills some Frontier vacuum here.

Of course we'll see what happens. But I have a feeling we're going to look a lot more like Columbus, Louisville, and Indianapolis soon.

okay, who's the lurker?

http://www.todaystmj4.com/news/local/139157939.html

LOL....not me. I'm glad they didn't mention DEN-RFD because that market is *not* being dropped. It was either my error when looking at the online schedule, or it may have been incorrectly listed as unavailable all seven days of the week I checked.

What is also being dropped is DEN-TUS. Word is that it's planned to return seasonally.

LOL....not me. I'm glad they didn't mention DEN-RFD because that market is *not* being dropped. It was either my error when looking at the online schedule, or it may have been incorrectly listed as unavailable all seven days of the week I checked.

What is also being dropped is DEN-TUS. Word is that it's planned to return seasonally.

Pretty soon they'll be quoting Knope instead of Jay Sorenson!

Anyway excellant analysis as usual Knope. You pretty much hit the nail on the head about MKE's future. They've enjoyed several years of a lot of service only to end up with probably not a whole lot. As someone who is about to move back to MKE and possibly starting a small business, it is scary to think of the local businesses that have benefitted from good air service for so long. Sure you'll be able to connect in places like ORD, MSP, and DTW, but it is far less convienient.

I also share your thoughts on elite status, and much more enjoyed being a big fish in a little pond vs a small fish in a big pond. I'm trying to figure out how much I want to connect in DEN next year. My travel patterns probably make AA a good choice but I've never been impressed with their product.

As for the credit card, I'm glad I didn't join yet. But closing it doesn't necessarily hurt your credit except for the fact that your amount of available credit goes down. The "age" of a card on the report is always reported based on when you opened it, and even after you close the card it continues to "age."

http://www.bankrate.com/financing/credit-cards/closing-credit-card-affect-credit-score/

I imagine the media watches this forum..and the other enthusiast site...like hawks. If not, they are missing a perfect place to pick up stories. Knope is as good as any inside source, if you ask me.

Knope, maybe you should send them a stringer bill!

As for what Southwest will do here in Milwaukee, well, I'm not going to hold my breath. Clearly they will have some benefit from Frontier's decisions. And even my worst-case-but-fairly-plausible scenarios have Southwest at around 20 daily flights here.

Re-reading my post on my smart phone at a stoplight, I want to make this a tad clearer. Worst case I see WN around 20/day, but that might turn out to be 30 or 40 or even more. But even in the best case I just don't see Southwest getting us markets like Raleigh, San Diego, Hartford, Indianapolis...much less Grand Rapids, Des Moines, Dayton, etc. (DSM will not last beyond FL.)

I would not call this a slow death of Frontier at MKE but rather the funeral dirge.

Here they are...

0550 DEN
0714 LGA
0715 MCO
0720 IND
0835 BNA
0840 OMA
0859 DEN
1235 CMH
1247 RHI
1420 DEN
1425 OMA
1430 DCA
1520 BNA
1551 LGA
1605 IND
1905 DEN
1915 RHI
1925 CMH

We know that most of the routes listed above are on borrowed time. Once ZW can get MSP-RHI up and running, Frontier will end service. The sub 99 seat aircarft are not part of Frontier's year-end fleet plan so IND, CMH, BNA, and OMA are goners too. MCO will probably be cut in September (I'm surprised they're even keeping it this summer with AirTran going up to 4x daily). With only 1x daily to DCA, yields will be garbage and Frontier will pull the route if they can find a better use for the slots. I suspect Southwest and Delta will try to force Frontier off of the LGA route. That leaves DEN.

Here's an updated list of departures at MKE. Including the new PIT addition, Milwaukee will be at 20 flights to 10 nonstop destinations:


0600 DEN
0714 LGA
0715 MCO
0720 IND
0835 BNA
0840 OMA
0901 DEN
1025 PIT
1235 CMH
1247 RHI
1425 DEN
1425 OMA
1430 DCA
1520 BNA
1551 LGA
1605 IND
1850 PIT
1859 DEN
1915 RHI
1925 CMH

If DL is awake it would be all over these cuts like flies at a picnic. The old NW would have,

Journal Sentinel reports 500 Milwaukee employees will be cut:

http://www.jsonline.com/business/frontier-airlines-to-cut-500-milwaukeearea-employees-cv46bem-139239153.html

Journal Sentinel reports 500 Milwaukee employees will be cut:

http://www.jsonline.com/business/frontier-airlines-to-cut-500-milwaukeearea-employees-cv46bem-139239153.html

And...the other shoe has dropped.

The layoffs affect employees at Mitchell, the airport’s commissary and maintenance facility.


I think that the MKE maintenance facility is gone.

http://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2012/02/13/frontier-slashing-more-milwaukee-jobs.html

It will be interesting to see the $ deal made with DEN to bring the jobs there.

As bad as they are, I'm surprised it's not a bigger chunk of the local workforce.

The crew bases are being closed, which means all 230 MKE-based crews are displaced. That leaves 216 non-fligh-crew position cuts.

If there are about 1,000 (pre-layoff) MKE-based employees, that means there are about 770 non-flight-crew positions.

216 non-flight-crew position layoffs
770 non-flight-crew positions in MKE before layoffs

Thats only about 28% reduction in workforce among non-flight-crew ranks.

Of course only is a very relative term. But I thought it would be even worse. I wonder how many of the remaining positions are in direct support of the MKE station operations (ramp, groomers, gate agents, etc) and how many are in res or in the mx area which support the airline as a whole.

As far as the initial media reports, I have to chuckle that the Journal Sentinel rounds 446 up to 500 in the headline (not even "nearly" 500). Coverage of Frontier has been more even handed since Tom Daykin is off the airline beat, but this particular story was written by....Tom Dakyin himself. At least both JSonline and the Business Journal acknowledge that the flight crews are being transfered and in many cases do not reside in the area. That must have been clearly specified in the press item

Journal Sentinel reports 500 Milwaukee employees will be cut

Thank you, Tim Hoeksema! The seeds you sowed have finally germinated and flowered. It was Hoeksema who engineered the sale of YX to NW and a group of loan sharks from Texas. NW ponied up for the sole purpose of keeping the airline away from FL. Remember that NW almost immediately called its "investment" a total loss for tax purposes, and the financiers peddled the carcass to Frontier/Republic. Had Hoeksema been able to keep his considerable ego in check and sold the airline to FL, they would have used Milwaukee as its midwest hub and likely would not have sold out to WN. Not to mention Brian Bedford wanted nothing to do with YX in the first place, he wanted everyone of their employees out. He is a terrible CEO - destroying TWO respected airlines! Bedford pays his employees so low, the majority could qualify for the food assistance program. Flying Republic Airlines is supporting the cancer of the airline industry! Maybe the animal on the tail should be a weasel!

As far as the initial media reports, I have to chuckle that the Journal Sentinel rounds 446 up to 500 in the headline (not even "nearly" 500).

The headline has been updated to say 446.

Thank you, Tim Hoeksema! The seeds you sowed have finally germinated and flowered. It was Hoeksema who engineered the sale of YX to NW and a group of loan sharks from Texas. NW ponied up for the sole purpose of keeping the airline away from FL. Remember that NW almost immediately called its "investment" a total loss for tax purposes, and the financiers peddled the carcass to Frontier/Republic. Had Hoeksema been able to keep his considerable ego in check and sold the airline to FL, they would have used Milwaukee as its midwest hub and likely would not have sold out to WN. Not to mention Brian Bedford wanted nothing to do with YX in the first place, he wanted everyone of their employees out. He is a terrible CEO - destroying TWO respected airlines! Bedford pays his employees so low, the majority could qualify for the food assistance program. Flying Republic Airlines is supporting the cancer of the airline industry! Maybe the animal on the tail should be a weasel!

There's a lot of speculation with what if FL bought the YX.
It could've prospered.
It could've floundered and stopped flying.
Or WN could've still bought them and we'd be seeing the wind-down of a lot of markets. (FL had a pretty aggressive, and fairly unsustainable growth plan)

MKE is in the bad position of being fairly close to ORD, but in the upside that if another airline comes in and offers a modest amount of popular destinations they could do quite well. WN, although offering plenty of benefits, is seriously overrated as a carrier.

Maybe the new "PeoplExpress" will make its way to MKE.

Only time will tell.

Thank you, Tim Hoeksema! The seeds you sowed have finally germinated and flowered. It was Hoeksema who engineered the sale of YX to NW and a group of loan sharks from Texas. NW ponied up for the sole purpose of keeping the airline away from FL. Remember that NW almost immediately called its "investment" a total loss for tax purposes, and the financiers peddled the carcass to Frontier/Republic. Had Hoeksema been able to keep his considerable ego in check and sold the airline to FL, they would have used Milwaukee as its midwest hub and likely would not have sold out to WN. Not to mention Brian Bedford wanted nothing to do with YX in the first place, he wanted everyone of their employees out. He is a terrible CEO - destroying TWO respected airlines! Bedford pays his employees so low, the majority could qualify for the food assistance program. Flying Republic Airlines is supporting the cancer of the airline industry! Maybe the animal on the tail should be a weasel!

Hi IllinoisMan, welcome to FlyerTalk.

For existing carriers, I wouldn't be surprised to see U.S. Airways increase PHL service (both in frequency and equipment upgauges) and American to reinstate some mainline service

American Airlines will reinstate mainline service on MKE-DFW effective April 4, 2012.

The schedule will be 4x daily (2x MD80 and 2x ERJ).

American Airlines will reinstate mainline service on MKE-DFW effective April 4, 2012.

The schedule will be 4x daily (2x MD80 and 2x ERJ).

A small silver lining. Thanks for sharing, Blue.

Let's hope other carriers follow suit on select routes.

American Airlines will reinstate mainline service on MKE-DFW effective April 4, 2012.

The schedule will be 4x daily (2x MD80 and 2x ERJ).

I believe this is right around the same day that the mainline service started last year, only to be dropped after Thanksgiving. We can only hope that its here to stay this time.

There's a lot of speculation with what if FL bought the YX.
It could've prospered.
It could've floundered and stopped flying.
Or WN could've still bought them and we'd be seeing the wind-down of a lot of markets. (FL had a pretty aggressive, and fairly unsustainable growth plan)

MKE is in the bad position of being fairly close to ORD, but in the upside that if another airline comes in and offers a modest amount of popular destinations they could do quite well. WN, although offering plenty of benefits, is seriously overrated as a carrier.

Maybe the new "PeoplExpress" will make its way to MKE.

Only time will tell.

At the price AirTran was willing to pay for Midwest, I think they would have floundered. I think where it all went wrong was the battle of egos between Hoeksema and Joe Leonard. Neither wanted to give in to the other. What AirTran should have done was withdraw the offer and returned with a new lower offer once it was 100% obvious that Midwest wasn't going to make it on its own. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

At the price AirTran was willing to pay for Midwest, I think they would have floundered. I think where it all went wrong was the battle of egos between Hoeksema and Joe Leonard. Neither wanted to give in to the other. What AirTran should have done was withdraw the offer and returned with a new lower offer once it was 100% obvious that Midwest wasn't going to make it on its own. Hindsight is 20/20 though.

I've debated whether to jump back into the discussion. After all, we're talking about events that happened five years ago.

With that said, I think some people have selective memory about what happened (and I'm not saying that you do flyYX).

A few points:
1) Midwest didn't want to sell. The AirTran take-over attempt was hostile.

2) The final AirTran offer was contingent on obtaining financing at or below a certain interest rate. That clause was the primary reason why Midwest's board rejected the offer (despite all of the spin here and elsewhere, the events leading up to the board's decision are detailed at length in SEC filings). Given that Midwest went into loss making mode in the 3rd quarter of 2007 and the collapse of the credit markets, it was hardly guaranteed AirTran would have obtained financing.

3) TPG/Northwest offered more money for each share AND it was all cash. AirTran was a combination of cash and stock.

4) The Midwest stockholders voted overwhelmingly to accept the TPG/NW offer.

5) AirTan's hub plans for MKE were simply unrealistic. Almost 45% of departures were to be on 32 and 50 seat regional jets. Regional jet economics don't work with LCC fare structures. Can you imagine how much red ink would have been flowing during the summer of 2008 when oil was at $140 +.

6) AirTran executives said that had their purchase of Midwest gone through the combined airline would have likely filed Chapter 11.

Hoeksema certainly made mistakes. We also know that Northwest invested mainly to block AirTran and keep LCC service out of the heartland markets. However, if we didn't have the oil crisis of 2008 and subsequent recession, Midwest might have made it. Would they have survived the last few years? We'll never know.

I understand that emotions are running high especially among impacted employees and frequent travelers. It's natural to try and cast blame on someone and Hoeksema is an easy target. Yet there's is plenty of blame to be thrown at AirTran (creating an unsustainable fare war) and Republic (for any number of avoidable screw-ups they made the last few years but that's a topic for a different thread).

The point is none of us know how things would have turned had AirTran been successful. Perhaps we'd all be here right now talking about the closure of AirTran's MKE hub and how stupid Midwest was for selling out to Joe Leonard and Company.

(My apologies MikefromMKE for getting somewhat off topic)

With that said, I think some people have selective memory about what happened (and I'm not saying that you do flyYX).

I agree with all your points, but I still believe that AirTran played their cards wrong when going after Midwest. They pushed Midwest into a sale... They actually thought nobody would bid on Midwest. If AirTran would have waited for Midwest Stock to tank again and based on history, I believe it would have fallen below 4 dollars a share, then AirTran could have swooped in again with a much lower offer. This is all water under the bridge now and it doesn't matter anymore.

I've debated whether to jump back into the discussion. After all, we're talking about events that happened five years ago.

With that said, I think some people have selective memory about what happened (and I'm not saying that you do flyYX).


The point is none of us know how things would have turned had AirTran been successful. Perhaps we'd all be here right now talking about the closure of AirTran's MKE hub and how stupid Midwest was for selling out to Joe Leonard and Company.



Great post, Blue.

I was at the MEH shareholders' meeting, where AirTran made their public presentation. Among the attendees were Midwest and AirTran management, hedge fund representatives, local YX shareholders, YX employees, etc; the AirTran team did not receive a warm welcome from most of those assembled. Midwest showed a video montage prior to the meeting, which included years-worth of their commercials; the commercials brought back lots of memories, which certainly contributed to a heightening of emotions. It was a well-orchestrated move on the part of YX management.

Following the FL presentation, a member of the AirTran team returned to his seat in the audience. As an elderly man in the crowd made direct eye contact with him, someone whom he obviously considered to be his adversary, the elderly gent made a very vigorous thumbs-down gesture, right in the face of the AirTran presenter (it probably could have been worse, if the gesture were just slightly different); those in view laughed uncontrollably. It was a great tension-breaker.

I recall one of the hedge fund reps standing up to offer his comments supporting the AirTran offer. To appease the many local, small stakeholders in the audience, he assured them that AirTran would have to keep the Midwest cookies, as a part of the deal. After five years, it's funny that now, the cookies will be about all that's left as a reminder of Midwest.

Quick! Besides Denver, where does Frontier fly?

OK, no need to write a literal response but I just wanted to point out that the last year or so of erratic Frontier conduct isn't helping it as a competitive airline. They needed to expand routes and code sharing and basically fizzled. Not opening the DEN BCC was a sign.

At least both JSonline and the Business Journal acknowledge that the flight crews are being transfered and in many cases do not reside in the area. That must have been clearly specified in the press item.
Milwaukee will have 450 fewer jobs, and that is what the title says. How is that deceiving?

Coverage of Frontier has been more even handed since Tom Daykin is off the airline beat, but this particular story was written by....Tom Dakyin himself.

This most recent article isn't quite as forgiving:

http://www.jsonline.com/business/cuts-at-frontier-mean-fewer-flights-higher-fares-cv467di-139329858.html

The service cuts and layoffs show Frontier has lost the Milwaukee battle with Southwest and AirTran that started in 2009, Sorensen said. Frontier's owner, Republic Airways Holdings Inc., is seeking a buyer for the airline, but Sorensen believes those efforts are futile.

"This airline will fail," he said. "There's nothing left to buy."

I do find it interesting though that he thinks WN is likely to pick up MKE-EWR/PHL.

Milwaukee will have 450 fewer jobs, and that is what the title says. How is that deceiving?

It did after it was changed, it first said 500

The service cuts and layoffs show Frontier has lost the Milwaukee battle with Southwest and AirTran that started in 2009, Sorensen said. Frontier's owner, Republic Airways Holdings Inc., is seeking a buyer for the airline, but Sorensen believes those efforts are futile.

"This airline will fail," he said. "There's nothing left to buy."

I do find it interesting though that he thinks WN is likely to pick up MKE-EWR/PHL.


Good lord...

--This airline will fail? It has a far better chance to be profitable as the streamlined DEN-focused ULCC they are becoming than the disjointed multi-personality plan they were failing to execute. The phrase "they need to decide what they want to be when they grow up" has rattled around my head regularaly since they day they canceled plans for the Denver Best Care Club. Well, they've finally done that. Arguably, Frontier has better prospects to succeed now than it has since coming out of bankruptcy. That's not, IMHO because the legacy YX system was worthless or dead, but because they were not able to figure out how to make it work. Although slashing MKE and MCI is not exactly pleasant to witness (and that's an understatement), from the perspective of Frontier's health it puts them in a far better position. It's not only true in the midwest, but in Denver as well. Frontier's moving to ULCC model means more seasonal markets, no more Q400, more less-than-daily markets, and fewer markets and frequencies operated because they are important to serve the Denver business market. By virtue of the hub they operate in Denver, Frontier will still be rather useful for Denver business travelers, but cuts and changes made there suggest it's not "the same old Frontier" there either.

--There's nothing left to buy? What, exactly, did Frontier shed which was especially valuable to buy? Pretty much nobody buys and airline to get their aircraft, so take that off the table. Frontier's assets at LGA and DCA are of some limited value, and they still are. One could argue that they squandered the customer base they had in the former YX system, but how much of Frontier's overall value was the FF based in Milwaukee and Kansas City? With few exceptions (like AirTran's value to Southwest being access to Atlanta) the key value an airline has is its ability to make money. I'd say there's more to buy than there recently has been.

--Southwest will start MKE-EWR and MKE-PHL? Really? Even if the MKE east-west operation survives intact...which is not a certain prospect by any means...EWR has very limited access for Southwest and it is highly unlikley they'd dedicate any resources there to a new market of EWR-MKE. And Philadelphia is a Southwest station with unprecidented market failures. The lack of successfull penetration against USAirways there makes PHL-MKE a non-starter.

Sorensen's vision field has always been short, but these comments really expose his limits. A small silver lining in the Frontier carnage here is that perhaps local media will finaly pull this guy's card out of their virtual rolodex.

I could see UA upgauging MKE-EWR to at least a CR7, and US doing the same for MKE-PHL

Beyond that I can't see WN doing much from MKE to other than their own focus cities. Going to other hubs will be a disaster, and WN has already shown that it can't compete with even US.

Beyond that I can't see WN doing much from MKE to other than their own focus cities. Going to other hubs will be a disaster, and WN has already shown that it can't compete with even US.

You can ask US' ex-employees in BWI and LAS about that, where WN's domination was total.

Purely speculation, but I can't realistically see WN keeping a transitioned MKE any larger than they have kept BNA pre-ATL. That would be 24 cities. Right now at MKE, the combined WN+FL has somewhere in the high 20s - I want to say 27 after you take out the duplicates, but I may be off by a couple.

But I can just as easily see WN take MKE down further to 19-20 cities, more like a SAN or an OAK. I don't think they'll take it far down as a RDU or and SLC, with only 13-14 cities.

Beyond that I can't see WN doing much from MKE to other than their own focus cities. Going to other hubs will be a disaster, and WN has already shown that it can't compete with even US.
Southwest should be able to function from MKE with a route network like the following at about 48-50 flights per weekday:
- Core connections: ATL, BWI, STL, MCI, DEN
- Secondary connections: BNA, HOU, PHX, LAS
- Business markets: LGA, BOS, MSP, LAX
- Sunny markets (seasonal?): TPA, MCO, FLL, CUN

Purely speculation, but I can't realistically see WN keeping a transitioned MKE any larger than they have kept BNA pre-ATL. That would be 24 cities. Right now at MKE, the combined WN+FL has somewhere in the high 20s - I want to say 27 after you take out the duplicates, but I may be off by a couple.

But I can just as easily see WN take MKE down further to 19-20 cities, more like a SAN or an OAK. I don't think they'll take it far down as a RDU or and SLC, with only 13-14 cities.

If WN used Milwaukee like it uses Oakland that would be great. They have over 100 flights in Oakland. Realistically I think that they will stay where they are for now. They are in a dominant position in MKE and have a monopoly on a lot of routes which means they can charge more money.

Southwest should be able to function from MKE with a route network like the following at about 48-50 flights per weekday:
- Core connections: ATL, BWI, STL, MCI, DEN
- Secondary connections: BNA, HOU, PHX, LAS
- Business markets: LGA, BOS, MSP, LAX
- Sunny markets (seasonal?): TPA, MCO, FLL, CUN

add SFO and SEA to business markets and I think you got it

4) The Midwest stockholders voted overwhelmingly to accept the TPG/NW offer.


Of course they voted for it; with all the phony-baloney capital provided by Northwest they probably got a 600% premium over what Midwest was worth.


The service cuts and layoffs show Frontier has lost the Milwaukee battle with Southwest and AirTran that started in 2009, Sorensen said. Frontier's owner, Republic Airways Holdings Inc., is seeking a buyer for the airline, but Sorensen believes those efforts are futile.

"This airline will fail," he said. "There's nothing left to buy."

I do find it interesting though that he thinks WN is likely to pick up MKE-EWR/PHL.

Southwest is brilliant, absolutey brilliant. There was real value in Air Tran and there is real value in the MKE market.

It's good to see WN's success at MKE and DEN, despite the NW phony-baloney captial infusion.

Southwest is brilliant, absolutey brilliant. There was real value in Air Tran and there is real value in the MKE market.

It's good to see WN's success at MKE and DEN, despite the NW phony-baloney captial infusion.

Welcome back :)

The past is never dead. It's not even past.
William Faulkner

If WN used Milwaukee like it uses Oakland that would be great. They have over 100 flights in Oakland. I meant more in terms of the number of non-stop destinations, not the number of flights. OAK has a lot of high-volume routes, where I don't think any destination from MKE would be more than 4x/day and many would only be 2x/day.

Quote: MCO will probably be cut in September (I'm surprised they're even keeping it this summer with AirTran going up to 4x daily).

I'm surprised they would drop MKE-MCO. I fly that fairly regularly and it's usually very full. Of course I'm not on it every day...

Quote: MCO will probably be cut in September (I'm surprised they're even keeping it this summer with AirTran going up to 4x daily).

I'm surprised they would drop MKE-MCO. I fly that fairly regularly and it's usually very full. Of course I'm not on it every day...

Leisure markets generally have junky yields.
A full flight doesn't mean full profits.

I meant more in terms of the number of non-stop destinations, not the number of flights. OAK has a lot of high-volume routes, where I don't think any destination from MKE would be more than 4x/day and many would only be 2x/day.

I believe delta flies to MSP, DTW and to ATL more then that. I know delta flies to MSP at least 7 times a day on mainline aircraft.

Listening to the Bucks game last night on the radio, the Frontier commercial says, "...Now over 50 departures from Milwaukee!..." Obviously an OLD commercial!

You can ask US' ex-employees in BWI and LAS about that, where WN's domination was total.

True, but US has managed to hold their own in PHX and, quite surprisingly IMHO, put the total smack down on SWA in PHL.

Having lived in Chicago, there are a number of Chicagoans who will drive (or take the train) to MKE rather than ORD or MDW, plus the people who actually live in MKE, so I think MKE will always have a greater level of service than other cities of similar size, but I think the hub days are gone.

True, but US has managed to hold their own in PHX and, quite surprisingly IMHO, put the total smack down on SWA in PHL.


Southwest in PHL still has 50% more flights than US has out of LAS. As for 5-year trends in PHX, I don't have any data at hand. That puts US' record vs. WN at no better than 1-2-1 in my book.

Southwest in PHL still has 50% more flights than US has out of LAS. As for 5-year trends in PHX, I don't have any data at hand. That puts US' record vs. WN at no better than 1-2-1 in my book.

For US to maintain a hub in both PHX and a short distance away having LAS. HP was using LAS as an overnight hub for extra slack in their network.
LAS is just a spoke in US's hub now, same as PHL is a spoke in WN's oddly shaped hub.

I fly MKE-PHL/PHL-MKE on US every week. The flights are always 100% full and most often (especially the morning MKE-PHL flights) with business travelers.

I hope US ups its equipment on this route now that F9 is pulling out.

I fly MKE-PHL/PHL-MKE on US every week. The flights are always 100% full and most often (especially the morning MKE-PHL flights) with business travelers.

I hope US ups its equipment on this route now that F9 is pulling out.

Knope may know this but, wasn't there an issue where US could not fly the US branded Republic E170s on the MKE-PHL route because of YX/F9 contract. I assume this is no longer an issue with the F9 MKE-PHL being cancelled.

There was an interesting rumor (and it is only a rumor at this point) posted on airliners.net stating that Republic is pulling all flying from MKE this summer (E145 and E190). The individual who posted this information stated that this was actual flying and not the closure of the E145/E190 bases. This would leave only Frontier Airbus flights.

I'm sure the rapidly increasing price of oil is (or will) making the financial performance of these flights really, really ugly.

If this is actually true, it looks like my prediction of only MKE-DEN flights by fall will come true.

The cookies are apparently going away as well.

Darn cookie haters. Not sure why everyone at A.net hated them but the debate got pretty heated.

Darn cookie haters. Not sure why everyone at A.net hated them but the debate got pretty heated.

Funny how a cookie can be debated so much. It was a nice touch but not anything that would draw me to an airline. Why people feel so passionate over it on either side is beyond my comprehension. It's only a COOKIE! :p

Funny how a cookie can be debated so much. It was a nice touch but not anything that would draw me to an airline. Why people feel so passionate over it on either side is beyond my comprehension. It's only a COOKIE! :p

True. I looked at it as something to make frontier unique. I'm kinda of a cookie monster myself, so I quite enjoyed the cookie. It sure beat WN peanuts. It may have not increased sales but I think it added value to the F9 brand and perception, similarly to the unique tails. They may save some money by switching to a pre-packaged snack but I hope they don't do as far as NK.

To me it seems that Republic and the head office had a hard time finding its identity. I believe that Denver knows Frontiers identity: Cheap fares, good customer service, funny ads and the underdog in the United:Southwest:Frontier fight. (Denver loves the underdog, just think back to Rockies World Series run)

I'm afraid some good will might be lost with the many route starting and stopping but hopefully they can start offering reward seats on all the new flights to the Caribbean and Mexico. Hopefully some of the new COS routes will stick and some stability can come to the route map while improving their finances. If WN costs keep creeping higher, F9 may have the ability defend WN and beat them back. I know that doubtful but maybe in another 5 to 10 years...

There was an interesting rumor (and it is only a rumor at this point) posted on airliners.net stating that Republic is pulling all flying from MKE this summer (E145 and E190). The individual who posted this information stated that this was actual flying and not the closure of the E145/E190 bases. This would leave only Frontier Airbus flights.

I'm sure the rapidly increasing price of oil is (or will) making the financial performance of these flights really, really ugly.

If this is actually true, it looks like my prediction of only MKE-DEN flights by fall will come true.

The cookies are apparently going away as well.

If indeed the pulling of all Embraer flights from MKE is true, where would they send them?

Yes, oil is going up in price, but oil is roughly the same place no matter which markets these aircraft serve. Moving them to a place like DEN won't change that. I suppose they're hoping to put these in markets that have higher yields and better traffic composition, but I don't know that DEN is much better than MKE is (considering the fierce competitive environment there).

Meanwhile, reduced competition at MKE means yields here will continue to rise.

So what happens with the DCA and LGA slots in that case?

If indeed the pulling of all Embraer flights from MKE is true, where would they send them?



Republic would probably park the E145s or try and place them with another carrier. As for the E190s, we aren't talking about that much lift (3 or 4 flights per day).

If Republic does pull operations from MKE, I'm more curious on what they will do with the DCA and LGA slots. With the reductions in MKE and MCI, Republic already has a surplus of slots. Are these being leased to another airline or will something else be announced?

If Republic does pull operations from MKE, I'm more curious on what they will do with the DCA and LGA slots. With the reductions in MKE and MCI, Republic already has a surplus of slots. Are these being leased to another airline or will something else be announced?I'm really hoping for E-190s DCA-ORD-COS into their new T5 operation at ORD, but I'm not holding my breath.

I'm really hoping for E-190s DCA-ORD-COS into their new T5 operation at ORD, but I'm not holding my breath.

I don't know about the tag on from COS, but there are probably a few YX/F9 FFs in the Chicago area that would be willing to fly more F9. I'd love to see 3x daily LGA-ORD and DCA-ORD on the E90s or A320s. They already have pretty low costs, let's jump into some routes where they can get traffic. I still argue that STRETCH on the E90s is one of the most comfortable and best value seats in the air.

I don't know about the tag on from COS, but there are probably a few YX/F9 FFs in the Chicago area that would be willing to fly more F9. I'd love to see 3x daily LGA-ORD and DCA-ORD on the E90s or A320s. They already have pretty low costs, let's jump into some routes where they can get traffic. I still argue that STRETCH on the E90s is one of the most comfortable and best value seats in the air.

I respectfully disagree. I finally made it on an E90 last month in stretch, and the seat was extremely uncomfortable and didn't line up with the windows (which have more wall space between windows than most aircraft). I was also surprised that, despite being in stretch, service was done from back to front, meaning I was one of the last to get served. Also, the wifi was inoperable and the food options were limited.

Not trying to be debbie the downer here. I was looking forward to a great experience, but walked away disappointed.

I don't know about the tag on from COS, but there are probably a few YX/F9 FFs in the Chicago area that would be willing to fly more F9. I'd love to see 3x daily LGA-ORD and DCA-ORD on the E90s or A320s. They already have pretty low costs, let's jump into some routes where they can get traffic. I still argue that STRETCH on the E90s is one of the most comfortable and best value seats in the air.
LGA-ORD is already saturated by UA, AA, and DL (E-175s), so I don't see that one happening. I was thinking about the COS tag because I don't think ORD would have any other E-190 service, so they'd need a way to rotate them out. I don't think the 320s would be a good fit on ORD-DCA - AA doesn't even fly mainline on all of its flights, they mix 737-800 and CRJ-700 (although both are two-class).

I respectfully disagree. I finally made it on an E90 last month in stretch, and the seat was extremely uncomfortable and didn't line up with the windows (which have more wall space between windows than most aircraft). I was also surprised that, despite being in stretch, service was done from back to front, meaning I was one of the last to get served. Also, the wifi was inoperable and the food options were limited.


I've have to disagree with you on this one, Vinnie. :D We flew in Stretch last week. Seats were comfortable, food was served front to back. We were even able to get two of the six sandwiches boarded. (The Ham sand was one of the better in flight sandwiches I have had in recent years.) 99 pax on board, the FA said she could have sold a lot more sandwiches if they had more.

Knope may know this but, wasn't there an issue where US could not fly the US branded Republic E170s on the MKE-PHL route because of YX/F9 contract. I assume this is no longer an issue with the F9 MKE-PHL being cancelled.

No issue. Republic planes fly DCA/PHL-MCI as F9 and US. Many of our flights even those as DL/UA/CO/AA/US compete directly against our Branded service

Bedord's latest letter to employees contained a few interesting items and perhaps ominous news about the remaining ERJ/E190 flying in MKE/MCI.

-Beginning in Q1 Republic will change how its financial results are reported to more clearly reflect the independent nature of the branded and fixed-fee flying. Any profits or losses from the ERJ/E190 flying will now be broken-out seperately on Republic's financial statements.

-Republic has a pro-rate codeshare agreement with Frontier for all ERJ/E190 flying.

-Of the $82M lost on the branded operations last year (including the storm-related losses), almost $75M of that loss was generated in MKE and MCI. As a result, many of the "chronic loss-making markets" were discontinued.

-If oil prices remain elevated and Republic cannot raise fares appropriately, they will trim the flight schedule further to ensure the business remains profitable."

Bedord's latest letter to employees contained a few interesting items and perhaps ominous news about the remaining ERJ/E190 flying in MKE/MCI.

-Beginning in Q1 Republic will change how its financial results are reported to more clearly reflect the independent nature of the branded and fixed-fee flying. Any profits or losses from the ERJ/E190 flying will now be broken-out seperately on Republic's financial statements.

-Republic has a pro-rate codeshare agreement with Frontier for all ERJ/E190 flying.

-Of the $82M lost on the branded operations last year (including the storm-related losses), almost $75M of that loss was generated in MKE and MCI. As a result, many of the "chronic loss-making markets" were discontinued.

-If oil prices remain elevated and Republic cannot raise fares appropriately, they will trim the flight schedule further to ensure the business remains profitable."

Could be ominous but also could be a glimmer of hope. I'd almost be more worried if they didn't break out this flying from F9 since then they would get rid of it for sure to get their CASM numbers lower. As it stands we get to keep some flying that we might not have gotten and I would bet as long as it makes more money than parking the planes, RJET will continue to fly the routes. RJET has an abundance of 50 seaters that they don't know what to do with so if they can find a few high yielding routes for them I think it can be good for everyone. Heck I bet they could find a way to route one out to DEN to do DEN-ASE.

As it stands we get to keep some flying that we might not have gotten and I would bet as long as it makes more money than parking the planes, RJET will continue to fly the routes. RJET has an abundance of 50 seaters that they don't know what to do with so if they can find a few high yielding routes for them I think it can be good for everyone.

Very true.

With that said, Republic is going to be hard pressed to find many (if any) routes that will work with oil over $100. The economics of the regional jets just aren't there to make those routes profitable. I suspect that the appeal of the E190 is also starting to significantly erode in the current fuel environment.

It's not just a Republic/Frontier problem, either. If oil continues its upward trajectory, I suspect that we will be looking at some significant capacity cuts by airlines come fall.

Very true.

With that said, Republic is going to be hard pressed to find many (if any) routes that will work with oil over $100. The economics of the regional jets just aren't there to make those routes profitable. I suspect that the appeal of the E190 is also starting to significantly erode in the current fuel environment.

It's not just a Republic/Frontier problem, either. If oil continues its upward trajectory, I suspect that we will be looking at some significant capacity cuts by airlines come fall.

You're very right. It's one of the big reasons they are getting BB focused back on RJET, because they know they are probably going to experience some pain at CHQ this year trying to figure out what to do with all those birds. They are somewhat less exposed then their peers, but if birds don't fly they don't make money.

Story from BizTimes discusses how the F9 flight reductions impact MKE.

http://www.biztimes.com/news/2012/3/5/mitchell-reeled

There has been discussion on this board about unused gates on Concourse D at Mitchell Airport, due to the extreme cutbacks in service; apparently, Frontier is locked into a lease agreement thru 2015 for gate and counter space at MKE.

Story from BizTimes discusses how the F9 flight reductions impact MKE.

http://www.biztimes.com/news/2012/3/5/mitchell-reeled

There has been discussion on this board about unused gates on Concourse D at Mitchell Airport, due to the extreme cutbacks in service; apparently, Frontier is locked into a lease agreement thru 2015 for gate and counter space at MKE.

Decent article. I've done some more thinking on concourse D and think it would be a good fit for Delta with some gate/jetway shuffling. They could take over the Best Care Club and the airport could reduce its costs by mothballing E. F9 won't need more than a few gates and WN will probably move over to C with FL. If WN wants to stay on D maybe DL moves over to C and they build them a new club, but that is a less easy option than the BCC. Either way I don't think MKE needs to keep all 3 concourses open (heated, cooled, secured, cleaned) when they would be comfortable with 2.

Decent article. I've done some more thinking on concourse D and think it would be a good fit for Delta with some gate/jetway shuffling. They could take over the Best Care Club and the airport could reduce its costs by mothballing E. F9 won't need more than a few gates and WN will probably move over to C with FL. If WN wants to stay on D maybe DL moves over to C and they build them a new club, but that is a less easy option than the BCC. Either way I don't think MKE needs to keep all 3 concourses open (heated, cooled, secured, cleaned) when they would be comfortable with 2.

American would end up needing to move over the D as well. UA's combined operations (as well as the AC flights) would be larger than what the gates they have would allow for.

Or, the *A carriers would end up moving to D, WN over to C, DL to D as well. Either way there will be a gate shuffle happening, if nothing else from CO and UA moving together.

The airlines have started loading some schedule adjustments for the summer that impact MKE (mostly positive for a change).

In July, Frontier will reduce MKE-MCO from daily to 2x weekly (Mondays and Thursdays). The non-stop flight will operate late afternoon which has traditionally been weaker for MKE-Florida traffic flows.

Delta is already increasing MKE-LGA from 3x daily to 4x daily in August even though the route hasn't started yet. Equipment will be 1x E170 and 3x CRJ900.

United will increase MKE-EWR from 3x daily to 4x daily. Equipment will be E145.

Per OAG, U.S. Airways will increase MKE-PHL from 4x daily to 6x daily in June. However, this change does not appear in booking websites yet. I'm guessing all flights will be CRJ200s to help Air Wisconsin rotate aircraft to their maintenance base in MKE.

The airlines have started loading some schedule adjustments for the summer that impact MKE (mostly positive for a change).

In July, Frontier will reduce MKE-MCO from daily to 2x weekly (Mondays and Thursdays). The non-stop flight will operate late afternoon which has traditionally been weaker for MKE-Florida traffic flows.

Delta is already increasing MKE-LGA from 3x daily to 4x daily in August even though the route hasn't started yet. Equipment will be 1x E170 and 3x CRJ900.

United will increase MKE-EWR from 3x daily to 4x daily. Equipment will be E145.

Per OAG, U.S. Airways will increase MKE-PHL from 4x daily to 6x daily in June. However, this change does not appear in booking websites yet. I'm guessing all flights will be CRJ200s to help Air Wisconsin rotate aircraft to their maintenance base in MKE.

Thanks for compiling / posting this. A few updates:

MKE-PHL is loaded this morning on the US site, and it is 6x/day CRJ on Air Wisconsin. It's only for June, however, and currently reverts to 4x/day in July. Not sure if an increased schedule will move beyond June or what their plan is.

Frontier's switch to 3x/week Airbus is funded from the Orlando side, meaning the planes run MCO-MKE-MCO. This actually starts on Jun 7th already -- it was originally loaded to start in September:

Mondays
08:11am Lv MCO
10:04am Ar MKE
10:45am Lv MKE
02:25pm Ar MCO

Thursdays and Saturdays
02:40pm Lv MCO
04:33pm Ar MKE
05:15pm Lv MKE
08:56pm Ar MCO

A less-than-optimal schedule may be workable in markets where they are the only nonstop airline (like MSN-MCO) but it's not a slam dunk in MKE-MCO where AirTran has 4x and Southwest has 1x. Speaking of Southwest, their Florida flying has often included non-optimal Milwaukee departure times, and their loads have been only moderate most of the year.

The ominous concern about the MKE-MCO change is that it leaves orphaned the aircraft which is scheduled to do MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. The April schedule has an E190 doing MKE-MCO-MKE in the morning, and then MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. Now, starting June 7th that plane is scheduled to just sit all morning in Milwaukee and then fly MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. That's virtually certain to not end up that way. The two most likely scenarios are that the last MKE-DCA trip gets dropped, or that something is restored in Milwaukee to use that aircraft in the morning. At least for summer they could do just fine using that aircraft for MKE-BOS-MKE in the morning, and then re-evaluate in fall. But that does not seem to be their trend these days.

I could see them not officially pulling MKE-DCA from the schedule until a decision is made on DCA-SDF and DCA-COS to avoid a black eye. If Frontier pulls MKE-DCA, that leaves AirTran with 4x as the only carrier. AirTran will continue to fly the route for the time being because Southwest's integration of AirTran is a slow and clunking affair, not because Southwest intends to keep 4x DCA-MKE, IMHO. Before one protests "But Southwest won't cut or drop DCA-MKE because they are the only nonstop carrier left", note that there is no nonstop carrier at all on DCA-MDW. And AirTran has only a small number of slots Southwest can use for Midway service -- four pairs currently used for MKE and six pairs currently used for ATL. A relatively modest but workable schedule of 4x DCA-MDW could mean DCA-ATL dropping to 4x and DCA-MKE dropping to 2x. If they wanted both DCA-MDW and DCA-ATL to be a more-competitive 5x, that would leave no slots for DCA-MKE. I do not expect DCA-MKE to go without any nonstop flights, but 18 months from now it could be any combination of Southwest, Delta, USAirways, or Frontier, offering anything from multiple daily mainline flights down to just a handful of CRJ's.

Dropped ASE service by F9 ends up with others picking up capacity.

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_20385633/frontier-airlines-bids-adieu-aspen-ending-service-monday?IADID=Search-www.denverpost.com-www.denverpost.com