Virgin America Elevate - Virgin America expansion @ JFK?

Hi all. I am wondering what you think of Virgin America expanding at JFK in the future.

I know they have only a small few flights out of JFK, and use some terminals at Terminal 4. Yet since Delta is coming back in some carriers at T4 will be displaced.

Does anyone think that Virgin America could gain control of Terminal 7 in 2015?

Or do you think Virgin will remain at T4 with these slots or will they be forced to relocate.

Virgin America has a future...?

Virgin America has a future...?

Virgin will be a major carrier this year. It is indeed adding routes just like PHL to SFO + LAX as the last one and will definitely add more.

So yes Virgin has a future just like JetBlue's map increased in size and scope since it started. Used to only have a few flights as well.

The question was if Virgin has a future specifically at JFK.

Virgin America has a future...?

Yes - they're a terrific airline.

Yes - they're a terrific airline.

Everyone agrees and would love to see Virgin America in their routes.

Virgin America will reshape domestic travel in the USA as soon as its route network expands. It is limited in routes but is getting larger.

I enjoy flying VX as much as the next guy...

but quarter after quarter of hemorrhaging money, with seemingly NO sight of pure profit in sight makes me wonder HOW long can this operation go on?

Granted Q3 of 2011 was MUCH more favorable than the rest of the year... but consistently offering airfare for below cost is a strange way to make a business.

With 24 mil cash on hand- any two consecutive bad quarters will put them in need of a major restructuring.

With 24 mil cash on hand- any two consecutive bad quarters will put them in need of a major restructuring.

In December, VX borrowed another $150 million, so it can withstand a few bad quarters.

In December, VX borrowed another $150 million, so it can withstand a few bad quarters.

I think the USA has a vested interest in keeping domestic airline travel competitive here on various routes.

JetBlue and Virgin America represent the top tier of domestic carriage in the USA for the most part. Southwest IMHO represents a lower tier even though it is a decent carrier with cheap pricing in the sense that there is no assigned seating, planes are flying fuller with new seating, and flight attendents actually dress down.

Someone like me would not be found on Southwest. Virgin America's route structures are just too small right now which is its biggest problem however on the routes it does serve hands down beats the legacy carriers which also have some of the worst terminals at the moment like Delta.

Virgin America is likely more competitive for travellers from California, while JetBlue is more competitive from NYC. But I hope in the end, not now, they wind up competing against each other since there will definitely be room for Virgin America in the future especially after the American Airlines bankruptcy is finalized.

Virgin has its few flights now at JFK Terminal 4. T4 is being expanded and it seems likely that Delta's expansion at T4 will force out another carrier so Im wondering if Virgin's terminals will be the one which moves out of T4 or if it will be someone else.

I think the USA has a vested interest in keeping domestic airline travel competitive here on various routes.

JetBlue and Virgin America represent the top tier of domestic carriage in the USA for the most part. Southwest IMHO represents a lower tier even though it is a decent carrier with cheap pricing in the sense that there is no assigned seating, planes are flying fuller with new seating, and flight attendents actually dress down.

Someone like me would not be found on Southwest. Virgin America's route structures are just too small right now which is its biggest problem however on the routes it does serve hands down beats the legacy carriers which also have some of the worst terminals at the moment like Delta.

Virgin America is likely more competitive for travellers from California, while JetBlue is more competitive from NYC. But I hope in the end, not now, they wind up competing against each other since there will definitely be room for Virgin America in the future especially after the American Airlines bankruptcy is finalized.

Virgin has its few flights now at JFK Terminal 4. T4 is being expanded and it seems likely that Delta's expansion at T4 will force out another carrier so Im wondering if Virgin's terminals will be the one which moves out of T4 or if it will be someone else.

The real question is how VX will be able to attract and keep business travelers. I think VX offers a phenomenal in-flight product when compared to most legacies, but I do not fly them for business because the frequent flyer programs offered by the legacies are on a level that VX doesn't even try to meet. Indeed, everyone I know who flies VX is either a very infrequent flyer or a frequent flyer who is going on a cheap personal trip.

There's a reason the majors have not jettisoned the complicated and rewarding frequent flyer programs. I would switch to VX in a heartbeat if it offered something competitive.

The real question is how VX will be able to attract and keep business travelers. I think VX offers a phenomenal in-flight product when compared to most legacies, but I do not fly them for business because the frequent flyer programs offered by the legacies are on a level that VX doesn't even try to meet. Indeed, everyone I know who flies VX is either a very infrequent flyer or a frequent flyer who is going on a cheap personal trip.

There's a reason the majors have not jettisoned the complicated and rewarding frequent flyer programs. I would switch to VX in a heartbeat if it offered something competitive.

I agree with this. However, as a result of the downgrading of benefits for 2P's on UA, I have booked more travel on VX in 2012 and will continue to do so. I am hoping that other 2P's will follow suit, since SFO is a hub for UA and there are thousands of 2P's available to go to VX. Their FF program does need a revamping to offer some benefits to attract more frequent flyers.

I agree with this. However, as a result of the downgrading of benefits for 2P's on UA, I have booked more travel on VX in 2012 and will continue to do so. I am hoping that other 2P's will follow suit, since SFO is a hub for UA and there are thousands of 2P's available to go to VX. Their FF program does need a revamping to offer some benefits to attract more frequent flyers.

I think you are right. VX's market share is increasing taking marketshare away from other carriers but has to become a much larger carrier for it to really make headway.

If I were to do say JFK to LAS, the choices would be vast. But Delta still has domestic flights pushed thru T3, which is a horrible terminal even though they are the cheapest so thats reason enough to pay extra for JetBlue or Virgin America which fly out of Terminal 4 or Terminal 5.

If I were to do say JFK to LAS, the choices would be vast. But Delta still has domestic flights pushed thru T3, which is a horrible terminal even though they are the cheapest so thats reason enough to pay extra for JetBlue or Virgin America which fly out of Terminal 4 or Terminal 5.

That, and 7 or so trips to Vegas on DL = a free transatlantic business class ticket. 7 trips to Vegas on VX = a free coach trip to Vegas (maybe). Or worse yet, LAX. Frequent flyers who are also international travelers give up a great deal by selecting VX over the legacies.

JetBlue should acquire Virgin, and then upgrade the JetBlue A319/320 aircraft to match the VX aircraft, and also add a decent FF program that included upgrades to F. This would result in a next gen airline in the US and attract all the UA, DL, AA flyers.

JetBlue should acquire Virgin, and then upgrade the JetBlue A319/320 aircraft to match the VX aircraft, and also add a decent FF program that included upgrades to F. This would result in a next gen airline in the US and attract all the UA, DL, AA flyers.

JetBlue and Virgin are different business models. And we need competition from both carriers. Both deserve to stay as domestic competition.

On the part which someone commented on Delta, this is true. The FF mileage and upgrades make these programs advantageous. But the tradeoff is the older T3 terminal which is a dump.

We will see what happens to Virgin, but for those travellers who fly its small route structure, especially Californians it seems worthwhile.

For people in other markets, less so.

I think the point I'm missing from all of these posts, is that Virgin does not successfully make money doing any of these things.

Growth and competing for non-profitable routes somehow escapes me.

... and to the fellow who believes Southwest is beneath him, and yet JetBlue somehow offers some kind of premium experience, I'm completely lost.

As far as LCC's-

I fly VX because when you combine their bargain bin pricing with 20% off discount codes- the fares are untouchable... likely because they're selling at a loss.

I'll fly JetBlue because they have an extensive route map now, have reasonable pricing (even more reasonable if you're the sort of folk who checks bags, I myself am not) and I've had their credit card (which I'm dumping) for years now. However they're late nearly all the time now, and the policies aren't as great as they used to be.

I'll fly Southwest because they're the best damn airline in the US- no frills, no fees, much more so on-time than JetBlue, and with T24 check in, always... always, a good seat.

...as a result of the downgrading of benefits for 2P's on UA, I have booked more travel on VX in 2012 and will continue to do so. I am hoping that other 2P's will follow suit, since SFO is a hub for UA and there are thousands of 2P's available to go to VX. Their FF program does need a revamping to offer some benefits to attract more frequent flyers.

I agree disgruntled UA 2Ps based at SFO represent a modest opportunity for VX -- as long as those customers are headed for the 9 or 10 cities VX serves.

There is no evidence VX will amount to anything more than an interesting disaster. Scrawny network, insane pricing, useless FF program, burning millions with no path to profit... it's as tragic and doomed fiscally as it is great in the air.

I think the point I'm missing from all of these posts, is that Virgin does not successfully make money doing any of these things.

Growth and competing for non-profitable routes somehow escapes me.

... and to the fellow who believes Southwest is beneath him, and yet JetBlue somehow offers some kind of premium experience, I'm completely lost.

As far as LCC's-

I fly VX because when you combine their bargain bin pricing with 20% off discount codes- the fares are untouchable... likely because they're selling at a loss.

I'll fly JetBlue because they have an extensive route map now, have reasonable pricing (even more reasonable if you're the sort of folk who checks bags, I myself am not) and I've had their credit card (which I'm dumping) for years now. However they're late nearly all the time now, and the policies aren't as great as they used to be.

I'll fly Southwest because they're the best damn airline in the US- no frills, no fees, much more so on-time than JetBlue, and with T24 check in, always... always, a good seat.

Southwest isn't a bad airline and has every right to exist but is a step down from Virgin America and JetBlue.

If Southwest is making profit, then there is no reason for Virgin America not to be able to profit with its own business model and to expand its network as well.

There is no evidence VX will amount to anything more than an interesting disaster. Scrawny network, insane pricing, useless FF program, burning millions with no path to profit... it's as tragic and doomed fiscally as it is great in the air.

One has to wonder what management is thinking. WN at least offers some rewards to its frequent flyers and has no relationship with an alliance. And with a website that is still frustrating, VX could not do much more to hurt itself. Is there anyone at VX who is listening?

Virgin will be a major carrier this year.

It certainly will not.

One has to wonder what management is thinking. WN at least offers some rewards to its frequent flyers and has no relationship with an alliance. And with a website that is still frustrating, VX could not do much more to hurt itself. Is there anyone at VX who is listening?

I know -- it's incredibly frustrating. Why do they touch off destructive, unnecessary fare wars in the west coast corridor ($79 SEA-SFO, etc.) that insure red ink for all players, including them, but then price ex-SEA transcons at 2X or 3X the competition, insuring zero sampling behavior? Why do they repel loyalty with an almost aggressively bad FF program, insuring that customers choose them for price (not always good), schedule (often terrible, with long SFO layovers), and service alone?

VX is providing a Harvard Business School case study on how to run a great brand into the ground.

And rapid expansion is no solution. If you're losing $X million per airplane and you double your fleet size, you'll just expire twice as fast.

Comparing VX and Southwest is apples and oranges. WN took 40 years to get to this point, and they went about it a hell of a lot smarter than VX ever will. When WN enters a new market it's like Godzilla wading into the harbor. Everybody knows. VX tiptoes in on little cat feet.

Comparing VX and Southwest is apples and oranges. WN took 40 years to get to this point, and they went about it a hell of a lot smarter than VX ever will. When WN enters a new market it's like Godzilla wading into the harbor. Everybody knows. VX tiptoes in on little cat feet.

Yes - don't disagree, but VX could have learned from them quickly what WN took 40 years to learn... free baggage, free roundtrip after X number of flights, early boarding.

Yes - don't disagree, but VX could have learned from them quickly what WN took 40 years to learn... free baggage, free roundtrip after X number of flights, early boarding.You know that WN no longer has a free trip after X flights, right? The two have VERY different business models but WN is actually more copying the loyalty program of VX (and B6) than the other way around.

Hi all. I am wondering what you think of Virgin America expanding at JFK in the future.
...
Does anyone think that Virgin America could gain control of Terminal 7 in 2015?Absolutely not. There is no way they'll gain slots to have enough flights to justify significant expansion, much less taking control of a terminal that sees quite a bit of traffic from other carriers. T4 is growin, in large part to accommodate the DL growth at JFK. There will be enough room for the current T4 tenants to continue operating there.
Virgin will be a major carrier this year. It is indeed adding routes just like PHL to SFO + LAX as the last one and will definitely add more. Yes, they are adding 5x transcon frequencies daily. That's not going to make them a major carrier by any stretch.
So yes Virgin has a future just like JetBlue's map increased in size and scope since it started. Used to only have a few flights as well.
Only if they can either turn a profit or find someone willing to invest more cash. I doubt that the current cost structure and cash burn rate will see them surviving without an additional investor infusion in the next couple years.

The major carrier was defined by the Department of Transportation and yes Virgin America will have enough flights to be defined as such later this year.

Virgin still has a ways to go before it grows even larger.

Gotcha...didn't catch the difference between "major carrier" and major carrier. ;)

JetBlue and Virgin are different business models. And we need competition from both carriers. Both deserve to stay as domestic competition.

How so? They are both lowcost carriers that hubbed out of a major underserved market, identical new aircraft, nonunion staff, fly shorthaul flights to neighboring cities as well as transcons, etc., etc.

VX is trying to do this low fare in, high cost add ons strategy like it's a hotel. No coincidence they call pax "guests".

And for all the hype about Red, really just need the Wi-Fi. Even PA jr now flies with an iPad and doesn't need seat back IFE.

How so? They are both lowcost carriers that hubbed out of a major underserved market, identical new aircraft, nonunion staff, fly shorthaul flights to neighboring cities as well as transcons, etc., etc.There are some subtle and not-so-subtle differences. VX has F while B6 does not, for example. B6 has been much more aggressive in international markets from the start than VX has. B6 is focused as much on VFR and leisure traffic as they are on business traffic while VX seems to be focused much more on the business segment.

And neither SFO nor NYC are underserved IMO. Not to say there isn't room for competition at both, but that's a different thing.

And for all the hype about Red, really just need the Wi-Fi. Or not even that. But I agree that RED is more hype than actual value.

You know that WN no longer has a free trip after X flights, right? The two have VERY different business models but WN is actually more copying the loyalty program of VX (and B6) than the other way around.

You are correct. I should clarify that the WN rewards program does offer free flights based on points. However, WN does attract a certain number of business travelers and does offer some benefits which VX does not. My belief is that VX does less than other carriers to obtain loyalty, other than offering a better soft product.

You are correct. I should clarify that the WN rewards program does offer free flights based on points. However, WN does attract a certain number of business travelers and does offer some benefits which VX does not. My belief is that VX does less than other carriers to obtain loyalty, other than offering a better soft product.

Yes it is called breadth and frequency. On WN; there are more flights between 0600-1200 intra CA than what VX runs all day. Additionally, every VX aircraft is already $2M in the hole due to IFE installation versus Southwest or Spirit, who either put the basics or no IFE/WiFi onboard. This means that ancillary revenue, which is otherwise respectable at VX, goes to pay off the cost of the IFE/WiFi installation, rather than just pure revenue.

In December, VX borrowed another $150 million, so it can withstand a few bad quarters.

And likely plenty of cash hidden off the books...

Hi all. I am wondering what you think of Virgin America expanding at JFK in the future.

I know they have only a small few flights out of JFK, and use some terminals at Terminal 4. Yet since Delta is coming back in some carriers at T4 will be displaced.

Does anyone think that Virgin America could gain control of Terminal 7 in 2015?

Or do you think Virgin will remain at T4 with these slots or will they be forced to relocate.

Already beaten to death. JFK is slot limited; and VX has maxed them out. The only other option to enter the NY/NJ market is hoping they can get in on EWR slots.

There are some subtle and not-so-subtle differences. VX has F while B6 does not, for example. B6 has been much more aggressive in international markets from the start than VX has. B6 is focused as much on VFR and leisure traffic as they are on business traffic while VX seems to be focused much more on the business segment.

And neither SFO nor NYC are underserved IMO. Not to say there isn't room for competition at both, but that's a different thing.



Not to be argumentative, but IMHO these are the very differences that make them a good fit for a merger. Combining a massive east coast hub + international routes with west coast hubs, and combining leisure and business travelers is what made USAir + America West happen.

Peter

...combining leisure and business travelers is what made USAir + America West happen.

And that turned out so well. Not. It was an operational and cultural disaster, and in many ways still is. B6 and VX are equally far apart on those counts.

I cannot for the life of me understand why so many customers root for further mergers and consolidation when each new deal does them further harm.

Bump. I heard they're pausing growth, cutting their order for 30 A320s to 10 and delaying neos until 2020. Doesn't sound good. Can an airline survive that long with a single hub on the West Coast? I feel like they should expand in the East somewhere, but it's a pretty crowded market. And if they're gunning for business travelers, I can't think of a good route for them to add in the East besides. Maybe they're good where they are? Curious what you guys think.

I'm worried because Independence Air couldn't survive against United despite its pretty extensive network out of IAD. Though on the other hand they didn't have IFE and Wi-Fi to differentiate themselves.

A JetBlue merger would be less than ideal but preferable to seeing them disappear altogether. Their route networks are pretty complementary, and I'd take an unhappy middle ground between JetBlue and Virgin's experiences over Southwest or the legacy carriers any day.