Here are the onboard loads for the eastern division of the Frontier network, plus select competitors. As always, remember that load is only half the picture when trying to judge relative performance, as it says pretty much nothing about fare and traffic composition.
Markets primarily served by Airbus / EJet
96.1% ….. MKE ….. LAS
93.6% ….. MKE ….. PHX
91.2% ….. MCI ….. SFO
90.9% ….. MKE ….. DEN
85.5% ….. MKE ….. DFW
82.8% ….. MCI ….. MSY ….. 77.6% one direction, 88.0% the other
82.6% ….. MCI ….. BOS
82.4% ….. MKE ….. MCO
81.6% ….. MCI ….. SEA
80.6% ….. MCI ….. DCA
79.9% ….. OMA ….. DCA
78.2% ….. MKE ….. LGA
77.9% ….. MKE ….. MCI
76.3% ….. MKE ….. BOS
75.5% ….. MCI ….. LAX
74.7% ….. OMA ….. MCO
73.8% ….. MKE ….. SAT
73.5% ….. MCI ….. AUS
69.0% ….. MCI ….. LGA
67.1% ….. MKE ….. DCA
65.5% ….. MCI ….. SAT
54.7% ….. MCI ….. MSP
I'll see if I have the opportunity to run the DEN numbers as some point soon.
MikeFromMKE
Jan 18, 12, 10:34 pm
Thanks Knope!
Not too surprising to see those CAK and DSM flights pretty low for FL. I wonder how much more money they are willing to burn there before they make a move.
Surprised by the BKG numbers for MKE, even on the RJ. Wonder if they might try to keep it around on the E90 or if most of that traffic ended up connecting beyond MKE. I know I took 2 flights AUS-BKG-MKE last year.
High numbers on FL for west coast nonstops. Wonder how much of that was O/D and what prices they were paying.
davywavy
Jan 19, 12, 9:13 pm
Thanks Knope!
Surprised by the BKG numbers for MKE, even on the RJ. Wonder if they might try to keep it around on the E90 or if most of that traffic ended up connecting beyond MKE. I know I took 2 flights AUS-BKG-MKE last year.
And thanks from me, as well, Knope.
I'm a little surprised by those MKE-BKG numbers, too, and the continuation to AUS. I'd love to know what AUS-BKG looked like in the same month, or is that contained with the BKG-AUS number?
davy
knope2001
Jan 20, 12, 1:03 pm
I'm a little surprised by those MKE-BKG numbers, too, and the continuation to AUS. I'd love to know what AUS-BKG looked like in the same month, or is that contained with the BKG-AUS number?
The numbers are average for both ways combined. Sorry I didn't make that clear! The north vs south numbers both at Milwaukee and Austin on the BKG routes were nearly identical...less than a pct difference in load factor.
Here are some more numbers from Branson's October.
I'm surprised how tough the 717 flights to Houston and Chicago had it -- fewer onboard people than the ERJ's to Austin and Milwaukee. I'd heard the weekly flights to/from PHX on Frontier were not doing very well either -- close to 45% LF. None of this, of course, says anything about yield nor about what sort of finanical sweetners these airlines are getting for this flying.
davywavy
Jan 20, 12, 1:15 pm
I'd heard the weekly flights to/from PHX on Frontier were not doing very well either -- close to 45% LF. None of this, of course, says anything about yield nor about what sort of finanical sweetners these airlines are getting for this flying.
Thanks again, Knope, and yes, I'd heard that PHX-BKG was a turkey, and 45% l/f is a bit better than the anecdotal number that came to me.
Checking back on previous posts by you, I seed that MKE-BKG (no AUS) was running at about 80% l/f for July and August, so is it out of line to think that BKG-AUS provided the bump?
If so, I wonder if MKE-BKG-AUS will come back - which means, I suppose, I wonder if it could support the E190? I'd like to see it.
davy
MikeFromMKE
Jan 20, 12, 2:59 pm
If so, I wonder if MKE-BKG-AUS will come back - which means, I suppose, I wonder if it could support the E190? I'd like to see it.
I'd like to see it too. I think the MKE-BKG flights were only 3x a week though, so even though LF was good I wonder if there is enough traffic to double the plane size assuming they keep 3x weekly.
knope2001
Jan 20, 12, 7:33 pm
As it turns out, for October 2011 Republic and Chautauqua (finally!) reported T100 segment stats correctly for thru flights.
(If anyone is intersted in how the reporting was incorrect, I can explain it again.)
Anyway, the key is that (for the first time) this month we can get legit thru passenger counts for Republic and Chautauqa. So we can actually see how many MKE-AUS passengers were aboard MKE-BKG-AUS, for example.
On the average flight betwen Milwaukee and Branson:
29.9 pax headed to Branson
16.7 pax headed to Austin
On the laverage flight between Austin and Branson:
27.0 pax headed to Branson
16.7 pax haded to Milwaukee
A fairly substantial proportion. Who knows about yields, and we know that costs of the RJ are not good. But it was a bigger part of the market than I expected.
A fairly substantial proportion. Who knows about yields, and we know that costs of the RJ are not good. But it was a bigger part of the market than I expected.
One of the days I took advantage of intro fares so I think I paid ~$110 o/w and the other was over the holidays and paid about ~$200 o/w to go AUS-BKG-MKE.
iansltx
Jan 22, 12, 3:58 pm
Looking at the October DEN numbers, if there's one thing that you can't criticize F9 on it's keeping their planes full (with the exception of the turboprop markets). Who knows about yields, but if they're anywhere near sane DEN should be a profit center for F9.
It's also reassuring to see that new markets (TYS, PVU) are already seeing decent (though not spectacular) loads, particularly Provo where F9 is competing with a hub not far away (where they have very reasonable LFs, I might add) and is on a light schedule.
Hopefully PSP and LIT show similar LF trends. Though all these numbers for F9 make me curious to know how WN's doing (but not quite curious enough to run the numbers myself...yet).
MikeFromMKE
Jan 22, 12, 9:58 pm
Looking at the October DEN numbers, if there's one thing that you can't criticize F9 on it's keeping their planes full (with the exception of the turboprop markets). Who knows about yields, but if they're anywhere near sane DEN should be a profit center for F9.
It's also reassuring to see that new markets (TYS, PVU) are already seeing decent (though not spectacular) loads, particularly Provo where F9 is competing with a hub not far away (where they have very reasonable LFs, I might add) and is on a light schedule.
Hopefully PSP and LIT show similar LF trends. Though all these numbers for F9 make me curious to know how WN's doing (but not quite curious enough to run the numbers myself...yet).
Certainly encouraging. The YOY numbers show strong LF and passenger growth on a much reduced block hour count which at least should mean they are burning less fuel per passenger. As you noted that says nothing of yield, but with F9's low costs they should be best able to cope with depressed yields.
Which leads me back to a question I posted earlier, which is, do they try to expand the fleet sooner than 2015. Rumor is they are looking at some more A320s, but how many more? Should be an interesting few weeks with earnings coming up soon.
davywavy
Jan 23, 12, 4:20 pm
It's also reassuring to see that new markets (TYS, PVU) are already seeing decent (though not spectacular) loads, particularly Provo where F9 is competing with a hub not far away (where they have very reasonable LFs, I might add) and is on a light schedule.
Although TYS did well in summer, Frontier was concerned about the fall/winter numbers and suggested that the service might go seasonal.
This sent the good people of Knoxville into a bit of a flap and they did sterling work to boost the numbers. Frontier came to the party and is changing the time of the Monday morning flight TYS-DEN to make it more business friendly.
Frontier Airlines Shifts Denver Departure Time To Better Accommodate Knoxville Business Travelers
I guess there must have been a happy resolution because Frontier then added TYS-MCO, to start in March, three months before Airtran quits the route.
Mostly, the Knoxville folk want LCC service to the northeast (NYC/WAS) which I doubt Frontier can provide. But - perverse as ever - I'd like to see Frontier consider TYS-BWI. Frontier has to have an aircraft at BWI (for BWI-PUJ) and I think a quick side trip to TYS would (a) be neat and (b) get Frontier back into BWI - the belly of the Southwest beast. There are a couple of other domestic routes from BWI I'd like to see, too. :-)
davy
runnigel
Feb 21, 12, 5:43 pm
Knope-
I know you mentioned at some point how you found the T100 numbers but I can not find that thread. Any insight would be appreciated.
knope2001
Feb 22, 12, 7:56 pm
Knope-
I know you mentioned at some point how you found the T100 numbers but I can not find that thread. Any insight would be appreciated.
(1) The files can get pretty large for Excel, so you're better off filtering by month and/or state.
(2) Every nonstop operated city pair appears month by month. Note that it's the operating airline (not the marketing airline) and every aircraft type is split out as well. So let's say this is what Delta MSN-MSP looked like for June, and let's say everything operated daily :