All Nippon Airways Mileage Club - Any educated guesses on Y -> C Upgrade Availability for TPAC in August

Hello all,

I am on track to have Bronze Service next year for the first time, and would like to use my upgrade points for a mid-August ex-NRT/HND to SFO/LAX Y -> C upgrade. Of course, my upgrade points will not be credited until April.

My question is, how tight is the availability for C upgrades likely going to be for the NRT-SFO, NRT-LAX, and HND-LAX (redeye) routes in mid-August, booking in April? Do I stand a reasonable chance of getting something as long as 8/10-8/20 are all more or less doable? Is my only hope the HND-LAX route with the older C product?

Thank you for anyone who can give advice; I am new to NH upgrades.

Generally, demand for a mid-August is high since it is holiday season (Obon).
You may predict the demand by searching for award availability on Augst 10-20, 2012.
If I were you, I would try a filght on August 20.

Keep in mind that out of Japan you can only upgrade the highest coach fares. It may actually be cheaper to book discounted business...

The itinerary would actually be ex-Korea connecting in NRT for about $1600 (more than half the price of the same flight ex-Japan, without the ICN-NRT flight). I'm planning on seeing some friends in Korea for a few days prior to returning.

Leaving on the 20 would be pushing my school schedule, but I might be able to make it work (I'd like to stay as long as I can, anyway). Otherwise, I guess I'll just have to nab an upgrade as SOON as those points get credited (do they come in April 1?)

Also, is there anyway that an upgrade booked with upgrade awards (miles) can somehow be transferred to upgrade points (same confirmed seat, just switching "currencies"). I was thinking I could go ahead and "reserve" an upgrade with miles now, then cancel it in April and within minutes reserve it again with the points. This probably wouldn't work though, because as soon as the seat got released it would go to a WL'er, right?

Also, is there anyway that an upgrade booked with upgrade awards (miles) can somehow be transferred to upgrade points (same confirmed seat, just switching "currencies"). I was thinking I could go ahead and "reserve" an upgrade with miles now, then cancel it in April and within minutes reserve it again with the points. This probably wouldn't work though, because as soon as the seat got released it would go to a WL'er, right?

I've never tried this, but you could try "holding" the reservation with miles and calling the BRZ desk to switch it over for you. I have no idea if it would work, though, and I have the feeling you'd have to fork over the 3,000 mile cancellation "fee" if you did so.

Just called the regular AMC North America number. They said that you can definitely transfer a reward seat from miles to points, and that there would be no mileage penalty, as long as it is before the departure date. Nice to know!