Japan - Buy or Rent?

What is happening in the property market in Japan generally speaking these days? Especially in the Kobe area?

We are thinking that we are going to have to live in Japan for at least 5-10 years and instead of renting, we are considering buying an apartment near my inlaws home.

Even if I have to sell it at the same cost 10 years from now, it seems more wise then blowing it on rent. Any thoughts?

What is happening in the property market in Japan generally speaking these days? Especially in the Kobe area?

We are thinking that we are going to have to live in Japan for at least 5-10 years and instead of renting, we are considering buying an apartment near my inlaws home.

Even if I have to sell it at the same cost 10 years from now, it seems more wise then blowing it on rent. Any thoughts?

With the exception of a brief boom period in Hokkaido for a few years ago (wealthy Australians buying property for access to the excellent skiing), the past 20 years have seen land/housing prices going down all over the country. That trend doesn't look to change in the near future. Most of the value of a house comes from the property (our land cost more than the home we built on it), so apartments would go down in value even faster.

I think it would be quite optimistic to think that you could sell an apartment ten years from now for as much as you pay for it now. I'm actually starting to think of going the other way, selling our home and renting a house...

If you'd much rather buy something, a house will lose value more slowly than an apartment.

It depends entirely on the area and the quality of the property. Certain areas of Minato-Ku are dropping like wild fire, others are stable for the past several years, while a few others all within the same ward have dramatically increased in value. All of these to which I refer are "mansion" quality apartment units.

The question is a good one, but much more information on the where and the what should be considered. There are some extraordinary bargains out there and purchase can be a very interesting option if the financing works for you. Consider the taxes however. You have to pay:
1. Real Estate Acquisition Tax, and the Value Added Tax at acquisition
2. Property Tax on going
3. Capital Gains Tax (potentially)

Mike

Minato-Ku
I assume mjm is talking about Minato-Ku Tokyo - not Minato Ku Osaka, which I would guess is probably more consistently down (but hey, that's just a guess).

One thing to consider is what you think will happen to the inflation rate and the yen value over the coming five to ten years - coupled with mjm's question about what kind of financing you can get - because high inflation is pretty good news if you're a borrower.

I assume mjm is talking about Minato-Ku Tokyo - not Minato Ku Osaka, which I would guess is probably more consistently down (but hey, that's just a guess).

One thing to consider is what you think will happen to the inflation rate and the yen value over the coming five to ten years - coupled with mjm's question about what kind of financing you can get - because high inflation is pretty good news if you're a borrower.

Yes, the Tokyo version. :)

Like anywhere, sounds like location is everything.

We hope not to have to finance to purchase a modest mansion. It is doing nothing in the bank anyway.

The strength of the yen is an issue, can't see it at this level forever. Can you? How would the yen weakening be an issue for property prices? What am I missing? (In afterthought, if you mean I have to exchange funds into yen - that would be a deal killer however in my situation, I hope I don't have to)

Japan has been in a cycle of deflation right? I don't see it changing. I'm I wrong?

Japan has been in a cycle of deflation right? I don't see it changing. I'm I wrong?
The sovereign debt problems that started in Greece are fast spreading throughout Europe. I think that it's only a matter of time before people start paying attention to the fact that Japan has the largest debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, and then their bond yields will also start to rise. Ultimately, the pressure will become so great that the only way to move forward will be by printing large quantities of new yen (as Greece and other Eurozone countries would be doing right now if they still had their own currency), thus greatly debasing the yen and starting a spiral of inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.

That won't happen overnight, but I think it's a real possibility within the next few years...

The sovereign debt problems that started in Greece are fast spreading throughout Europe. I think that it's only a matter of time before people start paying attention to the fact that Japan has the largest debt to GDP ratio in the developed world, and then their bond yields will also start to rise. Ultimately, the pressure will become so great that the only way to move forward will be by printing large quantities of new yen (as Greece and other Eurozone countries would be doing right now if they still had their own currency), thus greatly debasing the yen and starting a spiral of inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.

That won't happen overnight, but I think it's a real possibility within the next few years...

I agree and I wish they would get on with it. It will be a bit painful but it will fix things. Take the medicine now and get the pace healthy again.

It is doing nothing in the bank anyway.
Believe it or not, your money could do worse outside of a bank and it's harder to move it when you convert it into timber and tiles.

How would the yen weakening be an issue for property prices? What am I missing?
You mentioned a 5-10 year timeframe for your house purchase. I don't know your situation, but if you think you might move to another country in 10 years, then the exchange rate will be significant.

I don't see it changing. I'm I wrong?
I think so.

This is interesting and please bear with me on this.

So let me ask this, if there is inflation, prices go up and value of the yen goes down right? Thus the price of the property goes up but people are not able to purchase because the money they earn is still the same. Correct?

You are right, we do not plan to live in Japan indefinetly. If the yen deflates, this will impact us when we move the money out of the country.

We are looking at this situation this way, renting will cost about 150,000 per month times number of months of elder care. (5-10 years maybe longer) Regardless of the situation, we have to live somewhere. We purchase a place and even if we sell and take a haircut of 30%-50% it is still like a partial refund of the rent we would have paid. Are we naive?

We are looking at this situation this way, renting will cost about 150,000 per month times number of months of elder care. (5-10 years maybe longer) Regardless of the situation, we have to live somewhere. We purchase a place and even if we sell and take a haircut of 30%-50% it is still like a partial refund of the rent we would have paid. Are we naive?

I have no idea what the actual situation is like in the area of Kobe you are looking at, but as a ballpark guess, suppose that the choice is between spending 30,000,000 yen for an apartment, and an average of 150,000 yen a month for rental. A 30% haircut on your investment over five years would cost you 9,000,000 yen, exactly the same amount that you would have paid in rent over those five years. So you really need to investigate your options and do the calculations to determine which option is the most cost efficient for you.

NOTE: The above assumes that you do not have anything better to do with your 30,000,000 yen over five years time. If, for example, you buy into the above inflation scenario, then buying gold might be a better way to protect your savings than buying an apartment.

In summary, as you've probably gathered by now, it's a complicated question! :p

I have no idea what the actual situation is like in the area of Kobe you are looking at, but as a ballpark guess, suppose that the choice is between spending 30,000,000 yen for an apartment, and an average of 150,000 yen a month for rental. A 30% haircut on your investment over five years would cost you 9,000,000 yen, exactly the same amount that you would have paid in rent over those five years.

Don't forget transaction costs, property taxes and management fees for apartments.

Owning residential property in Japan will cost you about 8-9% of the purchase price in agent fees and taxes "round trip" (i.e. purchase and sale). Property taxes are complicated in Japan because they're based on assessed values for land and buildings, which are often very little to do with the market price.

An apartment complex will also typically charge a monthly management fee and contributions towards a repair fund. That might be 20,000円 per month for a property in this range.

Over 5 years, the ballpark numbers above might suggest an additional ~12% loss on your initial investment. You'd also lose another 1.8% against the 'risk-free' yen rate, i.e. a 5 yr JGB yielding around 0.35%.

(n.b. I am not your financial advisor, this is not investment advice, yadda yadda)

Not to mention that a house/apartment is quite illiquid, and selling it is a real pain. It can take several months and lots of visits from strangers to close the deal, and you'll really need the services of a real estate broker to find prospective buyers and navigate the legalese. And oftentimes in Japan, even after selling the house, there is a clause that requires you pay to fix any defects found within the first three or six months after the sale (if you can't do that for some reason, such as the need to leave the country in a hurry, then you'll probably have to lower your price even more to get the counterparty to accept the risk and make the sale)

Leaving after renting is so much easier...hand over the keys, and you're done.

Leaving after renting is so much easier...hand over the keys, argue for three months about how much of your deposit you're getting back, and you're done.

Corrected.

I don't think using trends in Minato-ku, Tokyo will have any bearing on Kobe. I imagine that chances of price appreciation in Kobe are smaller than in a prime Tokyo location, but also less volatile. I think during the credit bubble, yen carry trade days, dumb expats possibly created a micro-boom in Minato, but both rents and prices have fallen significantly since 2008. Prime property rents are down as much as 20%-40% since 2008.

Also in Japan the structure is depreciated over 30 years. So if you buy a nicer, newer place then the value of the structure depreciates. So you would have to balance that depreciation with a gain in the value of the land, which is unlikely. One option is to buy a 30+ year old house, but it will be dated and not have the latest earthquake standards. In fact, this gaijin real estate guy in Tokyo advises buying low-end 30+ year old apartments in not-so nice areas in Tokyo and you can get 10+% rental yield.

In the bubble days the value of the structure was a tiny fraction of the land value, so it did not matter. But land is still not "cheap" here compared to the ROW, especially when measured per square meter.

The gross rental yield on prime property in Tokyo where expats live is around 6%, so not worth buying even though this is higher than many places globally. Sure, you could borrow at 2% or less but you are going to have a lot of fees eating into that gross yield, risk of the house sitting empty (I saw a really nice house built in Feb 2009 that was not rented as of Jan 2011 when I was searching), and capital loss.

Thus, the odds are heavily against you and it would truly require an endgame collapse in Japan, which will happen eventually but I am not going to place any bets on it. Then the nominal value of a house might go up, but probably not measured against gold, for example. The problem is that inflation would collapse a system that depends on the government being able to fund itself at 0.9% interest. But inflation is the only way to get out of a 200% debt to GDP rat hole, so it's quite the catch 22.

p.s. If you find out that the rental yield on an older property in Kobe is 8-10% or more (unlikely, I would guess but you never know) then you should consider it but only buy an old house. And balance that with the quality of life of renting a new house.

I don't think using trends in Minato-ku, Tokyo will have any bearing on Kobe. I imagine that chances of price appreciation in Kobe are smaller than in a prime Tokyo location, but also less volatile. I think during the credit bubble, yen carry trade days, dumb expats possibly created a micro-boom in Minato, but both rents and prices have fallen significantly since 2008. Prime property rents are down as much as 20%-40% since 2008.

Also in Japan the structure is depreciated over 30 years. So if you buy a nicer, newer place then the value of the structure depreciates. So you would have to balance that depreciation with a gain in the value of the land, which is unlikely. One option is to buy a 30+ year old house, but it will be dated and not have the latest earthquake standards. In fact, this gaijin real estate guy in Tokyo advises buying low-end 30+ year old apartments in not-so nice areas in Tokyo and you can get 10+% rental yield.

In the bubble days the value of the structure was a tiny fraction of the land value, so it did not matter. But land is still not "cheap" here compared to the ROW, especially when measured per square meter.

The gross rental yield on prime property in Tokyo where expats live is around 6%, so not worth buying even though this is higher than many places globally. Sure, you could borrow at 2% or less but you are going to have a lot of fees eating into that gross yield, risk of the house sitting empty (I saw a really nice house built in Feb 2009 that was not rented as of Jan 2011 when I was searching), and capital loss.

Thus, the odds are heavily against you and it would truly require an endgame collapse in Japan, which will happen eventually but I am not going to place any bets on it. Then the nominal value of a house might go up, but probably not measured against gold, for example. The problem is that inflation would collapse a system that depends on the government being able to fund itself at 0.9% interest. But inflation is the only way to get out of a 200% debt to GDP rat hole, so it's quite the catch 22.

p.s. If you find out that the rental yield on an older property in Kobe is 8-10% or more (unlikely, I would guess but you never know) then you should consider it but only buy an old house. And balance that with the quality of life of renting a new house.
+1 on all of the above.
Kobe is nothing like Tokyo (thank God).
For a nice place in a good location I would say rent.
If saving money is more important, then buy an older one.
The worst would be to buy an expensive one new.

Brand new 100sqm homes in my neighborhood (30-45 min drive to downtown) are around 22-25 million. Nicer new condos within walking distance to a station are from 20-35 million depending on size/location. However 20-30yr old homes/condos can be had for cheap, and at least the homes will have some resale just based on the land value (falling, but will never be zero).

Taiwaned, you might also want to consider working as an independent contractor (or incorporating yourself) and deducting your rent from your income as a sort of business expense, which will effectively give you 30%+ off of your rent. I don't know the rules regarding this, but I have talked to a couple of expats who do it, and they say the Japanese tax authority is not picky about it. This assumes you will be a Japanese taxpayer, of course.

+1 on all of the above.
Kobe is nothing like Tokyo (thank God).
For a nice place in a good location I would say rent.
If saving money is more important, then buy an older one.
The worst would be to buy an expensive one new.

Brand new 100sqm homes in my neighborhood (30-45 min drive to downtown) are around 22-25 million. Nicer new condos within walking distance to a station are from 20-35 million depending on size/location. However 20-30yr old homes/condos can be had for cheap, and at least the homes will have some resale just based on the land value (falling, but will never be zero).

I walk past a newish condo bldg with a placard in Shibuya-ku. It's 70 million for an 80 sqm condo. Just for reference. I hate to imagine the prices back in 1990.

One option is to buy a 30+ year old house, but it will be dated and not have the latest earthquake standards. In fact, this gaijin real estate guy in Tokyo advises buying low-end 30+ year old apartments in not-so nice areas in Tokyo and you can get 10+% rental yield.


This is very similar to the suggestion of the real estate agents we were speaking to.

Our objective is elder care without having to live in the same house as the inlaws. It is not necessarily to make money on the transaction. More like how do we mitigate the loss type of senerio. We are therefore really confined to the area we can purchase or rent. It has to be within a two block area of where our inlaws live.

The whole area was pretty much rebuilt during the earthquake so older places are limited but very affordable. We were considering buying an older place and when we have to move we hope to sell it off closer to the price we paid for it.

Renting is so much preferable if we were positive we will not have to be there for more than 5 years however since our stay is determined by deteriorating parental health it is really impossible to determine. Could be more years than expected.

Off the subject of buying or renting, but are you aware of this?

http://www.bankrate.com/financing/retirement/japans-way-of-caring-for-elderly/

We were able to get home helper with 90% of costs supported by the government. Might help you fill in the gaps in care and allow you to expand the range of your home search...

This is very similar to the suggestion of the real estate agents we were speaking to.

Our objective is elder care without having to live in the same house as the inlaws. It is not necessarily to make money on the transaction. More like how do we mitigate the loss type of senerio. We are therefore really confined to the area we can purchase or rent. It has to be within a two block area of where our inlaws live.

The whole area was pretty much rebuilt during the earthquake so older places are limited but very affordable. We were considering buying an older place and when we have to move we hope to sell it off closer to the price we paid for it.

Renting is so much preferable if we were positive we will not have to be there for more than 5 years however since our stay is determined by deteriorating parental health it is really impossible to determine. Could be more years than expected.

The advice above about buying a 30+ yer old property is beyond any logic unless you simply do not care about the safety of those inside during a large earthquake. No steel frame, no ability to absorb the earthquake's force, and a host of other factors make these tear down properties and help you understand why the average life a of a residential structure in Japan is 25 years. Older ones exist but at a huge risk. Structural security and the geographic features of the land on which it is built specifically and the area ion general are very important. This data is so very easily accessible that to ignore seems like something nobody would do.

As for rental yields, well north of 10% in better apartments is easily being achieved in central Tokyo. 10% as a target is very reasonable. 6% is quite low. Again, this is for the central 3 wards (or if you wish 5).

If you are buying an investment property where the structure is worth zero then you don't really care if the place will collapse if you are getting 10% yield on the dump while it's still standing. I suppose that you will have demolition costs and hassle......

I was hinting that it's better for the OP to rent if he wants to live in a new, nice (and safer) place. Anyway the new codes came into place in 1986 (?), so generally it's safe to buy anything newer than that. So you could buy a 20-25 year old house that is deemed safe.

The 10% yield is nonsense. The aforementioned example: 80 sqm costs 70 million. So you think that you can get 600,000 a month for a 80 sqm apartment in Shibuya-ku? You can pay that for a newish 200 sqm single family house. I was looking at an amazing house with elevator roof deck, everything marble brand new, 2 parking spots, etc. They were asking 750k (and appeared keen to accept much lower because the house had been standing empty since being built in early 2009).

I know of a SFH in Minato-ku that rented for 1 million in early 2008. Now it's renting for 600k. This is a 200 sqm house and it's quite nice and perfect location 4-5 min from a metro stop. The yield at 1 million was 7%.

mjm has built a career on high-end Minato-ku real estate so I would trust what he says.

If you are buying an investment property where the structure is worth zero then you don't really care if the place will collapse if you are getting 10% yield on the dump while it's still standing.

Never heard of a landlord's duty to provide a safe premises to the tenant?

mjm has built a career on high-end Minato-ku real estate so I would trust what he says.

Never heard of a landlord's duty to provide a safe premises to the tenant?

Thanks Joe. :-)

If you are buying an investment property where the structure is worth zero then you don't really care if the place will collapse if you are getting 10% yield on the dump while it's still standing. I suppose that you will have demolition costs and hassle......

One seriously hopes you are joking.

I was hinting that it's better for the OP to rent if he wants to live in a new, nice (and safer) place. Anyway the new codes came into place in 1986 (?), so generally it's safe to buy anything newer than that. So you could buy a 20-25 year old house that is deemed safe.

Yes, 1986. With several levels of quality. Generally anything post '86 is good, but the industry is full of people cutting corners. I would inquire about the structure and do my own checking on soil depth and type. Readily available info. Two examples of commercial structures deemed safe that proved otherwise recently were the Tokyo Metropolitan Gov't. Bldg. and Ebisu Garden Palace. Both built post '86


The 10% yield is nonsense. The aforementioned example: 80 sqm costs 70 million. So you think that you can get 600,000 a month for a 80 sqm apartment in Shibuya-ku? You can pay that for a newish 200 sqm single family house. I was looking at an amazing house with elevator roof deck, everything marble brand new, 2 parking spots, etc. They were asking 750k (and appeared keen to accept much lower because the house had been standing empty since being built in early 2009).

The 10% yield is not nonsense. It is reality. North of that is very easily achievable too. Not sure where you get your info but mine comes from direct experience.

660K for 80sq.m. in Shoto is very achievable. Very, very achievable. Also in Omotesando. Very much so.

Occupancy rates are a function of many things Some firms with thousands of units on the market get very good rents and run close to 100% occupancy.

I know of a SFH in Minato-ku that rented for 1 million in early 2008. Now it's renting for 600k. This is a 200 sqm house and it's quite nice and perfect location 4-5 min from a metro stop. The yield at 1 million was 7%.

There are lots of examples at both ends of the spectrum and even more in the middle.

My contention is if someone is getting 7% they are not doing something as right as those getting north of 10%.

:)

I live exactly there so I can tell you that you are inflating rents by more than 100% relative to reality in Dec 2011 or maybe you have an uncanny skill in getting gullible expats to pay top yen? And we rented pre-earthquake; I am sure the market is even weaker now. Maybe it was close to being possible in 2007 for extreme cases; not now.

Or maybe you have high-end houses for sale and are talking your book. I can provide numerous additional anecdotes, but......

here are some stats:
http://akasakarealestate.com/main.pl?page=marketdata.htm&category=Yield&chart_type=Histogram&prefecture=tokyo&ward=All&station=All

I guess this is BS? Notice that high yields are for old apartments in undesirable places like Adachi. The low yields are in Shibuya and Minato.

So, it's immoral to buy a crappy apartment and rent it at market price?? Not my cup of tea, but it is the best option if you want rental income.

I live exactly there so I can tell you that you are inflating rents by more than 100% relative to reality in Dec 2011 or maybe you have an uncanny skill in getting gullible expats to pay top yen? And we rented pre-earthquake; I am sure the market is even weaker now. Maybe it was close to being possible in 2007 for extreme cases; not now.

Or maybe you have high-end houses for sale and are talking your book. I can provide numerous additional anecdotes, but......

here are some stats:
http://akasakarealestate.com/main.pl?page=marketdata.htm&category=Yield&chart_type=Histogram&prefecture=tokyo&ward=All&station=All

I guess this is BS? Notice that high yields are for old apartments in undesirable places like Adachi. The low yields are in Shibuya and Minato.

So, it's immoral to buy a crappy apartment and rent it at market price?? Not my cup of tea, but it is the best option if you want rental income.

I assume from your writing you mean that you live in either Shoto or Omotesando. You contend that 660K for 80sq.m. is a 100% overpricing? Hmmm….. One rather suspects you live in a less than prime property. Or quite possibly a unit owned by someone who invested in it or moved from it and now needs to rent it quickly.

If the second case you scored a deal. They are out there for sure, but as with most outliers they do not define the market. Some real estate agents love to advertise prices achievable by showing a single achieved price as opposed to a range of prices across similar properties. This is how they entice you. That does not however mean they are accurately describing all segments of the market with such statements.

Your knowledge of prices and market segments and specs. is clearly demostrated by what you have written. The mere fact that you describe the market for better rents as being paid by “gullible expats” shows us that you have not yet realized that the expat market is not the bread and butter source of tenants it once was. Many better developments in fact are 70% plus occupied by local tenants. Perhaps a quick look at the demographics, wealth distribution, and spending patterns in this country would enlighten you as to why.

Loved your link. Click on their listings link and you get:

“Due to copyright and privacy reasons we can not show you any listings at this time.
Please contact us so we can help you find suitable properties.”

I suppose you could call their office, which is…..a cellphone?

To make a statement like:

“Notice that high yields are for old apartments in undesirable places like Adachi. The low yields are in Shibuya and Minato.”

…is humorous. At best.

Not exactly enhanced by your follow up of a recommending for a second time the purchase and subsequent lease of a property known to be unsafe.

In any case, let’s try and steer the thread back to being useful for those entertaining the possibility of either purchasing or leasing.

That website used to have the entire unedited database of properties for sale and rent in Tokyo and was an incredible resource when we planned to rent a house here a year ago. It also had very valuable info for negotiating -- like time on the market for rentals.

People like yourself (i.e other people in the RE industry) blocked this information being made available to the public. The data is processed directly from this same source to generate the rental yields.

You can break down the rental yields by neighborhood on the Akasaka RE website. It's extremely informative. Where do you think they get their detailed data from? Make it up for the hell of it?

Nevertheless, anyone can go to a website like Japan Housing and find that your claims are factually wrong. There are extreme examples like a 90 SQM apartment in Omotesando for 700k a month. It is designed by a renowned architect, etc. So the denominator for rental yield will be much higher. I.e. this house is probably valued a lot more than ~70 million so your yield is going to be around 5%.

I also found that you can slash asking price (rent) by about 20% in this market unless the unit has already been heavily discounted.

Also note my earlier description of another house that I considered in Yoyogi-Uehara. It was across the street from the over-priced La Tour Yoyogiuehara. I guess that's your definition of "prime". Well, this house was just as nice and had the bonus of privacy as a single family house. 750k asking price for 200 sqm. Elevator, marble everything, roof-deck.... 2 years on the market empty.

My earlier example of the 80SQM condo in Tomigaya, average rent for a new unit near the closest station (see Akasaka RE website data) is 4000 yen per SQM per month. So rent would be around 320k yen. And that correlates well with asking prices on a site like Japan Housing.

Nice try: dismiss my examples as not being "prime" and change the subject. What is the purpose of your disinformation on this forum or do you live in some sort of fantasy land?

Yes, he lives in the sort of fantasy land where Butagumi is preferable to Mikawaya.

Yes, he lives in the sort of fantasy land where Butagumi is preferable to Mikawaya.

Joe, tea just splattered my monitor. thanks. :D

That website used to have the entire unedited database of properties for sale and rent in Tokyo and was an incredible resource when we planned to rent a house here a year ago. It also had very valuable info for negotiating -- like time on the market for rentals.

People like yourself (i.e other people in the RE industry) blocked this information being made available to the public. The data is processed directly from this same source to generate the rental yields.

You can break down the rental yields by neighborhood on the Akasaka RE website. It's extremely informative. Where do you think they get their detailed data from? Make it up for the hell of it?

Nevertheless, anyone can go to a website like Japan Housing and find that your claims are factually wrong. There are extreme examples like a 90 SQM apartment in Omotesando for 700k a month. It is designed by a renowned architect, etc. So the denominator for rental yield will be much higher. I.e. this house is probably valued a lot more than ~70 million so your yield is going to be around 5%.

I also found that you can slash asking price (rent) by about 20% in this market unless the unit has already been heavily discounted.

Also note my earlier description of another house that I considered in Yoyogi-Uehara. It was across the street from the over-priced La Tour Yoyogiuehara. I guess that's your definition of "prime". Well, this house was just as nice and had the bonus of privacy as a single family house. 750k asking price for 200 sqm. Elevator, marble everything, roof-deck.... 2 years on the market empty.

My earlier example of the 80SQM condo in Tomigaya, average rent for a new unit near the closest station (see Akasaka RE website data) is 4000 yen per SQM per month. So rent would be around 320k yen. And that correlates well with asking prices on a site like Japan Housing.

Nice try: dismiss my examples as not being "prime" and change the subject. What is the purpose of your disinformation on this forum or do you live in some sort of fantasy land?

Used to have? Oh OK, that makes it reliable then.:rolleyes:

You refer to “the entire unedited database of properties for sale and rent in Tokyo”.

Laughable. Such lists are created by individual firms. The access they have to various developers’ data is limited so they use best guess, last offer, or hearsay. They most definitely do not have the major developers’ data. I assure you.

There is no “unedited database of properties for sale and rent in Tokyo”

You say that I blocked information from being proliferated? Besides being outright incorrect that statement demonstrates a very limited understanding of the market here. Contracts here for housing or offices are between two parties and are not matters of public record. The public record concept common in the US, China, Europe etc., is not applicable here and as such anybody that uses the term “Market Price” here is talking absolute gibberish. Ever notice why contracts made by professionals here use the term “Comparables” rather than Market Price?

You ask if I think thy make data up? Well lets just put it this way. As the actual data they gather is so incredibly unrepresentative of the market, they have to extrapolate from very limited actual data. Again, your quoting of specific instances does not the market make. And as for me using agents’ databases as a tool for pricing, no, that would be a bit like cart leading the horse.

You ask if I consider La Tour in Yoyogiuehara “prime”.
Nope neither the area nor the product. Not even close.

You described property you found that was a great deal for 750K. And then went on to mention it was on the market for two years. I personally have never dealt with properties that stay on the market much more than a month or two, and even that is unusual. Again, it appears we are discussing apples and oranges.

So I have in this response answered your points one by one in list fashion.

Your property examples are not “prime” at all and my commenting on that is nothing more than stating the obvious. Not a dismissal at all. Just an observation of reality. No offense intended.