All Nippon Airways Mileage Club - Dec Y->C upgrade WL chances

Summary:
Can anyone comment on the chances of a Y->C upgrade WL clearing on 16th/17th Dec, IAD/ORD-NRT?


Long:
I was booking tickets today roc-sin and noticed that upgradeable fares are just $150 more than the cheapest fares available.

Outbound Date: Dec 15
Segment to be upgrades: IAD/ORD - TYO

It's only 28k miles for that segment, which is probably good value, considering that Y only has 8? middle seats left. :eek: But probably not quite full enough to cross fingers for a op-up as a higher fared *G.

Unfortunately, I checked with my reservation and the upgrade can only be waitlisted. What are the chances of it clearing? A dummy reservation shows that there are 35 of 77 selectable seats in the seat map. Not exactly full.

I would the flight on the next day or alternate routing if chances are better. I can push miles from spg or use a family member's NH miles, and also have copious TG and UA miles. Not that it'll help since H fares look like they are only upgradeable with NH miles.

Too bad there's really no good way for me to get to JFK. I'll be taking good advantage of UA's rather generous luggage allowances too. ;)

Impossible to say, especially given that you don't seem to be a NH elite. Just because C is only half-full doesn't mean upgrades are readily available, as evident by the fact that you're on the waiting list.

Yes, unfortunately I'm only TG *G. Any idea if NH has a practice of releasing more inventory?

Just an update: My mileage supported upgrade cleared for IAD-NRT, and not too many days after either. Highest status is *G, and just a NH member. Awesome, and thanks for all the comments!