US Airways Dividend Miles - I'm wondering about next year

For the first time in years I will probably not make CP. My company has cut back on travel, many of my clients have also made similar cuts.

Also, in previous years US has had a number of promotions to increase EQM's. So far the year they have offered very little. For example last year they did hop-skip-jump and 2X EQM's out of BOS.

So next year it looks like PP for me. I'm just wondering, if there is truely less business travel and fewer people getting higher status through less promotions, whether PP will give me basically the same value as I am getting from CP now. Or is this just wishful thinking.

There may be fewer top tier elites but there are also fewer flights which translates to fewer upgrades - so in that respect I think things even out at best or decline for all elites at worst.

As far as other perks, there's little benefit to CP over PP except for CP upgrade certs - worthwhile only if you travel internationally - and award redeposit waiver plus 25% mileage bonus. Those two are great but only if you redeem miles. Many people traveling on company / client paid tickets hardly ever redeem but once a year or so. That's not the average FT'er, of course, so that's probably not you.

I'm in the same boat - made CP with BIS miles but HSJ'd my way to renewal last year - will be downgraded to PP next year with what I have on the books through year end 2011, but I'm also "wishful thinking" that there are plenty of others in the same or similar boat and it will probably even out (though I'll miss the CP certs). Time will tell.

but there are also fewer flights

Isn't the company required to keep x amount of mainline flights per some pilot contract? Are there actually less flights and therefore less upgrades? Or am I thinking about something different?

You're not alone. I've been Priority Gold Plus/Chairman's for more than 10 years running but dropping to a lowly Silver Elite on the basis of my new Lifetime Status since I have almost 2m BIS miles on US. I changed jobs in March and it doesn't require travel and after 7 months I can now say I've never been happier. So, if it's any consolation, there will be one more seat out there that you may be able to snag! Happy travels.

You're not alone. I've been Priority Gold Plus/Chairman's for more than 10 years running but dropping to a lowly Silver Elite on the basis of my new Lifetime Status since I have almost 2m BIS miles on US. I changed jobs in March and it doesn't require travel and after 7 months I can now say I've never been happier. So, if it's any consolation, there will be one more seat out there that you may be able to snag! Happy travels.

Same for me, I dump us airways for good, my status expires February and I am already happier that I don't have to deal with their crappy service. Last year was awful. So, grab my seat and safe flights!

Isn't the company required to keep x amount of mainline flights per some pilot contract? Are there actually less flights and therefore less upgrades? Or am I thinking about something different?

There is not an actual requirement for a minimum number of flights. Minimums are specified for the number of planes (not counting the E190's) and number of monthly block hours. Those two effectively set a rough minimum on the number of flights, although US could just not fly the planes as much per day or fly more longer flights while reducing the number of total flights.

US has cut capacity about as much as it can, although capacity shifts occur (mainly from int'l to domestic and vice versa seasonally). With A321's and in 2013/14 A330-200's coming to replace mainly 737's and A 320's, capacity should grow slightly over the next few years even if the fleet count and block hours stay the same.

Jim

...With A321's and in 2013/14 A330-200's coming to replace mainly 737's and A 320's, capacity should grow slightly over the next few years even if the fleet count and block hours stay the same.

Jim

Are the 332's really replacing domestic narrowbodies?

Do you recall when they are planning to kick the 767's out (or has it not even been discussed yet)?

He probably meant that A321s are replacing narrow body planes and that more 330s will join the fleet.

Are the 332's really replacing domestic narrowbodies?

Do you recall when they are planning to kick the 767's out (or has it not even been discussed yet)?

Other than "eventually" I haven't seen anything firm on the 767's. Forecasts over a few months out are always subject to change, but right now Parker/Kirby are saying that the fleet will stay about the same size, +/- one or two depending on how lease returns line up with deliveries, so all of the deliveries for the next several years will be replacing narrow-bodies. Note that that doesn't mean A332's or 767's flying more domestic - it'll probably mean having Express fly more domestic while the A332's allow additional TA service. My guess is that that's at least partially behind putting FC in the larger Express planes - they'll be flying more longer segments where weight restrictions start to enter the picture anyway, so just remove some seats and provide FC like mainline on those longer segments.

Really, until the A350's start coming in 2017 there won't be enough new wide-bodies coming to replace all the 767's anyway and 3 or 4 of them are too few to gain any kind of commonality advantage.

On a side note, at the last crew news session someone asked Kirby about the possibility of wide-bodies between PHX and Hawaii and he said that the A332's are too big and the 767 doesn't have enough more seats than the 757 to offset the higher operating cost. So unless the A321neo will have the range the 757's will be around a while unless they get to the point that they can't lease enough for the service.

Jim

For the first time in years I will probably not make CP. My company has cut back on travel, many of my clients have also made similar cuts.

Also, in previous years US has had a number of promotions to increase EQM's. So far the year they have offered very little. For example last year they did hop-skip-jump and 2X EQM's out of BOS.

So next year it looks like PP for me. I'm just wondering, if there is truely less business travel and fewer people getting higher status through less promotions, whether PP will give me basically the same value as I am getting from CP now. Or is this just wishful thinking.
If you follow the trade press you will see that business travel is up. But, remember, it's not about the # of tix sold, it's about the $ for which a ticket is sold. A full Y ticket can cost 9-10x the deepest discount. That means for every Y ticket sold, US can remain roughly revenue neutral if it loses 8 pax at the bottom bucket.

Much of this increase comes from foreign travel to the US and much of that comes in the form of paid F (Remember an intl. pax booking into either premium cabin in a 3-class on another carrier or Envoy on US, is seated in F domestic. Couple that with domestic capacity cuts, corporate discounts which include Y-UP, A fares which are often the same as Y or virtually the same and the # of UG are radically shrunk.

The value of CP is simply that it puts you at the top of the list. With fewer UG to be had to begin with, it just means that chances diminish downstream.

If you follow the trade press you will see that business travel is up.

Although there are signs that business travel may soften next year.

Jim