Cruises - Serenade of the Seas in September

Hi,

I'm looking at booking (x2) on the Royal Caribbean Serenade of the Seas for its 4 Sept cruise. It appears to be the last sailing for that particular itinerary and it's the only dates I can do.

To make matters worse, there is a remote chance (< 20%) that I may have another commitment on during that same period (4-11 Sept) which would force me to cancel the cruise. I'll know for sure if I can make the cruise by mid (15-20th) July. I've been told the 50% refund policy for this trip applies after July 9. So a few too days too late to qualify for just the lost deposit.

I've got a couple questions that hopefully people know the answer to:

- Is September a low point for travel in the Caribbean? I ask because travel in early June and early September seems ok, but July seems to cost 75-100% more (i.e. ~£900 pp vs ~£500pp for a balcony room).

- Related to the above, prices now for a balcony seem to be £519/pp, does anyone know from past cruises if this is likely to creep much higher?

- Do cruises normally sell out (well in particular, anyone care to take a guess at what my chances are with this cruise?). I called the cruise liner and they said this particular cruise was 70% booked (including group bookings that may turn into cancellations). 70% of ~1,000 rooms still leaves 300 rooms available. I'm happy with any room upto a Balcony (but not more than that otherwise my bank will want a quiet word).

- I intend to book flights (LHR-SJU) with them post July when I can confirm my availability. I looked at direct pricing and taking into account having to arrange my own transport and overnight accomodation it looks like using the liners provided flights is best. Does that sound in line with what people here have experienced? I will be chancing that they'll still have flight availability in July!

I'm basically trying to weigh up if I should buy cruise now (flights later) and risk loosing 50%, or buy late July and risk paying (significantly) more. Since I would potentially loose 50% buying now and then cancelling, I'd be ok spending upto 50% more to buy later on. Question is will prices increase by more than 50%.

Any help/advice much appreciated.

Just a quick general comment to your questions.

You can generally find good pricing on cruises in the caribbean sailing before the school holiday begins (mid-end June) or after school begins (around labor day). For September it is likely that there will be many last-minute offers, and I doubt that the prices will go up. In the same vein -- I am not sure that I believe that the cruise is 70% booked! Have a look at www.seascanner.com to see how many cabins are available on your choice.

The most important thing to remember is that September is still smack dab in hurricane season for Florida and the caribbean, so there can be lots of itinerary changes or cancellations of port stops.

Have a look at www.seascanner.com to see how many cabins are available on your choice.

The most important thing to remember is that September is still smack dab in hurricane season for Florida and the caribbean, so there can be lots of itinerary changes or cancellations of port stops.

Thanks for the response - seascanner.com is definitely a lot more useful than the cruise liners website!

I guess I'll have to chance the hurricanes, at least two of the stops in this trip (Aruba and Curacoa) apparently is usually outside the hurricane zone.

I took a peek at the internal coding of the Serenade for you for 4 September sailing. RCCL (and its sister brands) code its sailings 4 ways by color:

Green = selling behind projections (and likely to have promotions such as resident, senior, military fares along with Happy Hours)
Blue = selling at projections (far less likely to have significant promotional rates)
Yellow = selling ahead of projections (closed to new groups, restricted on fares, likely no promotions)
Red = stop sell (chartered groups, etc.)

For your proposed sailing, at this time, the sailing is blue, which means it is selling at projections. September definitely is the start of lower season, especially in the Caribbean with hurricane season peak, but this sailing in particular is doing well.

Let me know if you have questions or want me to take another peek at the status in the future before you book. If things stay on track, likely not a lot of fare reduction on this sailing, if any, but you might find some targeted promotions such as pre-paid gratuities from time to time through their agency partners ;)

If things stay on track, likely not a lot of fare reduction on this sailing, if any, but you might find some targeted promotions such as pre-paid gratuities from time to time through their agency partners ;)

Cheers, very useful to know and much appreciated!