US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - Take a guess: When is US going bust?

According to This Article (http://www.sptimes.com/2004/01/09/news_pf/Business/Hopes_for_recovery_di.shtml) in SP Times:

Siegel warned employees in a telephone message last week that US Airways must repay the government-backed loan to stay solvent. Loan covenants require the airline to meet specific liquidity and earnings targets beginning June 30.

My guess is by May 30 they will throw in the towel. So I've got to burn about 225k miles with the wife between now and then. Anyone else?
--Alex

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ayb1:
My guess is by May 30 they will throw in the towel. </font>


You are assuming that the airline will be shut down in one day if it misses one of these targets? No way. The government is more interested in keeping US's 28,000 employees off the unemployment line than it is with US missing a target.

I'll take the over. I think they will survive.

No way they survive...esp when WN destroys them in PHL. I agree that the Gov. won't want 28K unemployed people and will try to help out (if they can ?)...I see US lasting until early next year...the pieces will start to come down though this Fall in my opinion...Then B6 can get all there new RJ's next year and start pillaging the NE markets...

Depends on what they sell and when. Also how aggressive WN is in pricing fares from/to Philly. Best guess: next January, when peak holiday travel season ends. If their financial rating drops below B- (that was result of recent cut), things will happen real fast, i.e. Chapter 7 liquidation. That's because they will be in violation of government loan covenants. If I had dividend miles to use, I'd burn them up in the next several months to play it safe.

After the summer travel rush ends. They should go before the 2004 holiday season. I wouldn't book Thanksgiving '04 tickets on US.

Hopefully after September (guess who has two Envoy standard award tix PVD-CDG for September).

That aside - I'd be real sorry to see them go.

(Bear - how's Edmonds? - used to live in Shoreline)

October 1st, after Shuttle, LGA, BOS and DCA valued asset sales. Then United will buy the remains out of Bankruptcy, (including the FF Miles)like American did with TWA.

$250 million asset sale would let them lose money for 3 quarters at current rate. Plus they have a little cash available, but SW will crush their PHL revenue, so that wipes out the extra cash above $1 billion. So something less than 3 quaters & past May 11th, say The Tuesday after labor day.

Come on folks. Stop this negative attitude. If you want a website frequented by US Airways employees, these irresponsible posts need to stop. There are pilots, agents, and flight attendants who periodically contribute to this site. Please don't forget this.

Despite some problems US Airways is facing, they are still flying a safe and reliable airline. Its employees are doing everything possible to continue this way.

If you have doubt about the airline, you can take whatever action you feel you need to do, but don't bring down the morale of the airline by having a contest such as this.

...and to those US Airways employees, accept our apology and please continue to support your airline. We also look forward to future posts at our sites.

DM

Moderator: I think this is time to close this thread.



[This message has been edited by jiburi (edited Jan 12, 2004).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by veliger:
October 1st, after Shuttle, LGA, BOS and DCA valued asset sales. Then United will buy the remains out of Bankruptcy, (including the FF Miles)like American did with TWA.</font>

Where is UA going to get the money?? They have been in bankruptcy for over a year now. They have already gone back to the ATSB board with a revised loan application for $2 billion. I think that this US thing is only going to make ATSB scrutinize UA's application more closely than before.
I don't think that any of this bodes well for UA or US. I have friends that work at both, so I hope that things do work out for them.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jiburi:
Come on folks. Stop this negative attitude. If you want a website frequented by US Airways employees, these irresponsible posts need to stop. There are pilots, agents, and flight attendants who periodically contribute to this site. Please don't forget this.

Despite some problems US Airways is facing, they are still flying a safe and reliable airline. Its employees are doing everything possible to continue this way.

If you have doubt about the airline, you can take whatever action you feel you need to do, but don't bring down the morale of the airline by having a contest such as this.

...and to those US Airways employees, accept our apology and please continue to support your airline. We also look forward to future posts at our sites.

DM

Moderator: I think this is time to close this thread.

[This message has been edited by jiburi (edited Jan 12, 2004).]</font>

This is not about having a negative attitude; many of us have substantial balances in the Dividend Miles program and US status -- the possibility that the company may fold is important to many on this board for many reasons. For that reason, I see nothing inappropriate about this thread.

My guess: end of the summer, perhaps a Chapter 7 filing that keeps some operations such as the Shuttle in the air while a buyer is found.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jiburi:
Come on folks. Stop this negative attitude. If you want a website frequented by US Airways employees, these irresponsible posts need to stop. There are pilots, agents, and flight attendants who periodically contribute to this site. Please don't forget this.

...and to those US Airways employees, accept our apology and please continue to support your airline. We also look forward to future posts at our sites.]</font>

Agreed. I have too many friends who work for US, and respect the employees too much to start playing this game. Some how another this does just not seem right. Maybe, just maybe, they will pull the rabbit out of the hat again, but it will not happen unless there are some real structural changes. I for one am pulling for them and plan on US being my primary carrier this year.

And we still have yet to see how US's entry into the *A will impact their bottom line.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by us2:
This is not about having a negative attitude; many of us have substantial balances in the Dividend Miles program and US status -- the possibility that the company may fold is important to many on this board for many reasons. For that reason, I see nothing inappropriate about this thread.</font>

Ditto.. (obviously) http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

My wife and I are going out of our way to fly US Airways every time we take a trip across the pond. We are actually going to plan a stop-over in CLT or PHL in March just so we can fly US because their Carribean schedules can't accomodate us-- even though we could fly BA direct.

However, I am genuinely concerned about my DM account.. as I'm sure others will. I really am just not sure how fast I will have to liquidate my account.

Perhaps I wouldn't care as much if I could get the AwardGuard service.. but since I can't, I feel like I have a time bomb strapped to my chest.
--Alex

[This message has been edited by ayb1 (edited Jan 12, 2004).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jiburi:
Come on folks. Stop this negative attitude. If you want a website frequented by US Airways employees, these irresponsible posts need to stop. There are pilots, agents, and flight attendants who periodically contribute to this site. Please don't forget this.
</font>

Although I love US Air and its people and I still continue to fly them in preference to any other airline, I don't agree that this thread should be closed or that people should avoid negative posts. I think people are sometimes a bit hysterical in their reactions to events, but I'm not sure it will drive the employees away. Frankly, at usavition (which I perceive to be much more of a employee board_ the tone is, if such a thing is possible, even more negative than it is here.

US will survive. This is another juvenile ploy to squeeze more out of employees, vendors and local government. They have little assets that are worth anything to another airline. The government doesn't want to close on the loan guarantees, so this will drag on. US will operate under the dark cloud that has been cast until the overall market picks up for all air carriers.

Sure, SW is going to hurt them in PHL, but many of these people were driving to BWI or EWR for low fares anyway.

US can survive, but a radical change in the way they are doing business is needed. Product improvement and differentiation are the way to go since they'll never beat the LCC's on price.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by jiburi:
[b]Come on folks. Stop this negative

...and to those US Airways employees, accept our apology and please continue to support your airline. We also look forward to future posts at our sites.

DM
[b]
Thank you. I know that many of you are concerned about what would happen to your DM points if U folds, but please remember there are thousands of careers and personal lives at risk as well.

To those loyal customers who are not frightened into booking away from U, many heartfelt thanks.

While it has always been useful and interesting to see the passenger perspective on issues ranging from vodka and limes to BBB fiendish plots :-), the best part of reading this forum is seeing how many truly loyal customers U has. Although I must confess that I haven't the time to read the other forums as much as I used to, it does seem that the posters on the U forum show greater loyalty and have kinder words for U's front line staff than anyone else. And that means a great deal.

BTW, I attended my first DCA flyer talk happy hour last week and enjoyed it very much! I do hope that more U regulars will be able to make the next one.


------------------
"I am serious...and don't call me Shirley"
(Leslie Nielsen as Dr Rumack in "Airplane")

[This message has been edited by Dont call me Shirley (edited Jan 12, 2004).]

[This message has been edited by Dont call me Shirley (edited Jan 13, 2004).]

this fall. god help those folks in alabama and their 37%....

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ayb1:
So I've got to burn about 225k miles with the wife between now and then. Anyone else?
--Alex</font>

I'm almost certain some other airline will assume this liability if US does fold. Remember Delta took Pan Am, American took TWA and Continental (?) took Eastern. I'm sure there are a few others.

I agree that even if USAirways is sold off in pieces, that someone will pick up the DM program. It would come at a discount price and they would be getting a lot of thankful (and therefore, loyal) customers. I have close to 100K in my account and another 30K in my wife's and if D-Day does come, I would certainly be as loyal to the new airline as I have been with USAirways over the years.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Dont call me Shirley:
[QUOTE]Originally posted by jiburi:
[b]Come on folks. Stop this negative

...and to those US Airways employees, accept our apology and please continue to support your airline. We also look forward to future posts at our sites.

DM
[b]
Thank you. I know that many of you are concerned about what would happen to your DM points if U folds, but please remember there are thousands of careers and personal lives at risk as well.

To those loyal customers who are not frightened into booking away from U, many heartfelt thanks.

While it has always been useful and interesting to see the passenger perspective on issues ranging from vodka and limes to BBB fiendish plots :-), the best part of reading this forum is seeing how many truly loyal customers U has. Although I must confess that I haven't the time to read the other forums as much as I used to, it does seem that the posters on the U forum show greater loyalty and have kinder words for U's front line staff than anyone else. And that means a great deal.

BTW, I attended my first DCA flyer talk happy hour last week and enjoyed it very much! I do hope that more U regulars will be able to make the next one.

</font>

Good point. One of the reasons many of us have been so loyal to US over the years are the wonderful frontline people who take such good care of us. The fact that we have concerns about the fate of the miles in our accounts does not detract from the affection and concern that we have for the people at US at all and I'll be the first to admit that my concerns about miles and so forth are comparatively trivial as against the people who may lose their careers and have their retirement adversely affected.

[This message has been edited by us2 (edited Jan 13, 2004).]