US Airways Dividend Miles (Pre-FlightFund Merger) - Southwest to PHL

nehopper

Oct 28, 03, 6:08 am

The Channel 29 Foxnews is touting an announcement today by PHL management that Southwest will begin flying out of PHL. The TV is already counting up the savings on airfare.

gardener

Oct 28, 03, 6:20 am

I almost s--t when i picked up the Philly Inquirer at the end of the driveway. I thought for certain it would be ABE.

Here's the link to the Inky online:

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/7118943.htm

travelmad478

Oct 28, 03, 6:37 am

Woo hoo! I've never flown Southwest, but always wanted to give it a try. This is excellent news. And I'm really looking forward to US's prices getting competed down.

nawlinsdoc

Oct 28, 03, 6:55 am

Well, anyone who thinks US F sux, just wait till you try Southwest's brand of "sprinting to the gate because if you don't get there early enough, you'll be relegated to a middle coach seat in between two huge fat guys".

If Southwest would just assign seats, they would really almost be an ideal airline.

ClueByFour

Oct 28, 03, 6:57 am

You know, I now see the interesting corporate transaction (tm) with UA--buy Dulles so that US can turn tail and run out of PHL so as to avoid a BWI repeat.

This, if true (and if it holds longer than LUV's jaunt to SFO) will probably kill US.

From Southwest's standpoint, I'm also very suprised they chose PHL over ABE or TTN due to the congestion.

------------------
Don't feed the trolls.

[editeeeed for speeeling]

[This message has been edited by ClueByFour (edited 10-28-2003).]

nawlinsdoc

Oct 28, 03, 7:04 am

Originally posted by ClueByFour:
From Southwest's standpoint, I'm also very suprised they chose PHL over ABE or TTN due to the conjestion.

I agree that PHL's congestion will make SW's ontime performance suffer bigtime.

trvlr64

Oct 28, 03, 7:11 am

Very Interesting! How fast will US go screaming to the city of Philadelphia or even Governor Rendell, crying "it's not fair"!?!

We all can complain about WN's no seat assignment and no first class, but watch how fast they kick US's butt. We all know that the price of travel is what is driving people to the LCC's. As it stands now, US's first class is nothing more than a bigger seat. Big deal.

Arrzee

Oct 28, 03, 7:15 am

Originally posted by nawlinsdoc:
Well, anyone who thinks US F sux, just wait till you try Southwest's brand of "sprinting to the gate because if you don't get there early enough, you'll be relegated to a middle coach seat in between two huge fat guys".

If Southwest would just assign seats, they would really almost be an ideal airline.

Frankly, that "mad dash to a seat" and cattle car boarding at Southwest is overstated. In fact, it sometimes is no different than working your way through the line of Preferreds blocking the gate...

And BTW, if Southwest does start and mantains service at PHL, US is toast.

[This message has been edited by Arrzee (edited 10-28-2003).]

JRF

Oct 28, 03, 7:27 am

Originally posted by Arrzee:

Frankly, that "mad dash to a seat" and cattle car boarding at Southwest is overstated. In fact, it sometimes is no different than the line of Preferreds blocking the gate...

And BTW, if Southwest does start and mantains service at PHL, US is toast.



YEP!!!!

I tried US after I left DL. I had a few terrible experiences on MetoJet and and then tried WN. There is no question in my mind, fly WN a few times, learn the system and it is far better then US. The issue with hoarding at the gate is only if you don't know how to work the system. I NEVER WAIT IN LINE and 90% of the time I get an isle seat. 33% of the time I get an exit row and often times the seat with no seat in front of it.

[This message has been edited by JRF (edited 10-28-2003).]

deelmakur

Oct 28, 03, 7:39 am

It's not very complicated. The company thinks it knows everything, makes decisions based on the assumption the competition will react the way it thinks it(US)should, then discovers there are other visions of how to operate when, contrary to what they expect, the competition then does otherwise. As the perception develops that they are easy pickings, various competing airlines invade their turf, generally with pretty good results. While the company blames governments, mother nature, unions, employees, and customers, each service or capacity reduction seems to result in less patronage. In the jungle, the predator will most often pick the weakest target. If you called central casting and asked for someone to play that role, my guess is these are the guys that would show up.

rd7242

Oct 28, 03, 7:47 am

Yes, but as soon as US folds PHL just like BWI when SW came in, that should ease congestion dramatically

Originally posted by nawlinsdoc:
I agree that PHL's congestion will make SW's ontime performance suffer bigtime.

catwood

Oct 28, 03, 8:02 am

I'm looking foward to some nice PHL-RDU fares and PHL-PVD fares.

rd7242

Oct 28, 03, 8:15 am

looks like they will lose money on PHL flights....better rethink the PIT strategy

chrislacey

Oct 28, 03, 8:22 am

ALB-PHL might now stay under the $200! This is great news.

Anyone know what routes they'll be flying? Just BWI?

-Chris

goldstj2

Oct 28, 03, 8:32 am

I wouldn't expect BWI since that's such a short train ride.

AirTran does BOS, but I would assume WN will do PVD, MHT, or both. A thread out there comments on how underserved the PHL-STL route has become. I would expect that they'll try to target similar routes where the only competition is US and to stay away from routes like PHL-DTW where they'd have two competitors.

How much must US be praying that WN will stay away from nonstops to PHX, LAS, and (especially) LAX?

nehopper

Oct 28, 03, 8:47 am

Article from the Phila Inquirer says destinations will not be revealed today. We have to wait for December. I wonder if US will start to discount in advance?

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/7118943.htm

Flying Buccaneer

Oct 28, 03, 8:49 am

Originally posted by trvlr64:
...We all can complain about WN's no seat assignment and no first class, but watch how fast they kick US's butt. We all know that the price of travel is what is driving people to the LCC's. As it stands now, US's first class is nothing more than a bigger seat. Big deal.



When WN started flying out of TPA in Jan 1996, US was the #1 airline here in terms of pax. There were hourly nonstops (prop planes) to MIA and nonstops all over Florida, as well as up and down the east coast. WN came in with 11 jet nonstops to FLL, as well as nonstops to BWI.

This year, WN will pass DL as the #1 airline from TPA in pax. WN has been #1 in terms of flights for a few years now. US is a distant 3rd.

I know its not a fair comparison, because TPA was not a hub for US, except to a few smaller airports in Florida. However, US pretty much controlled intra-Florida routes until WN came in.

Hopefully US has learned something from its past experiences with WN. WN will take some pax away from US, but WN also creates demand at airports it serves.

In the long run, you have to wonder if it's in US's best interest to have hubs in PHL and PIT.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 8:51 am

I wonder how much this will change US's attitude towards PIT. The general consensus has been that WN would come here. This PHL announcement is HUGE and totally came from nowhere.

This actually might be the best thing that happened to PIT, although I'm sure we're going to feel the pinch with fares as US tries to recoup themoney they're losing in PHL...

PurdueFlyer

Oct 28, 03, 9:40 am

Originally posted by tcollins33:
I wonder how much this will change US's attitude towards PIT. The general consensus has been that WN would come here. This PHL announcement is HUGE and totally came from nowhere.

This actually might be the best thing that happened to PIT, although I'm sure we're going to feel the pinch with fares as US tries to recoup themoney they're losing in PHL...

Regardless of what happens to PIT...I think this makes Roddey and the County Crew look woefully inept. For all the talk of how they are "trying to lure new airlines into the Pittsburgh market..." including carriers like WN...to have WN slip under the radar and land at PHL just seems to me like our leaders have dropped the ball, BIG TIME. Hope everything works out for the best.

------------------
"A mile of highway will take you a mile,
but a mile of runway will take you anywhere."

nawlinsdoc

Oct 28, 03, 9:50 am

Originally posted by JRF:
[B] There is no question in my mind, fly WN a few times, learn the system and it is far better then US. The issue with hoarding at the gate is only if you don't know how to work the system. I NEVER WAIT IN LINE and 90% of the time I get an isle seat. 33% of the time I get an exit row and often times the seat with no seat in front of it.[B]

May I ask how this is done? (i.e. getting a good seat without getting to the gate way early?)

Dan Burgess

Oct 28, 03, 9:58 am

Having been a Southwest frequent flier for 11 years, I have watched quite a few cities enter WN service, and I would like to make some predictions for non-stop service from PHL in May:

PVD and MHT (probably 8 flights/day each)
RDU (5 flights/day at first)
MDW (4 flights/day)
LAS (1 flight/day)
LAX (1 or 2 flights/day)
PHX (1 or 2 flights/day)
BNA (3 flights/day)
MCO (2 flights/day)
TPA (2 flights/day)
FLL (2 flights/day)
HOU (2 flights/day)
OAK (1 flight/day)

This adds to 40-42 flights per day. After a few months, if demand is strong, look for them to acquire another gate or two and up service to 50 or 60 flights per day. And after that it will only get better.

Southwest never rips off customers, as all flights are capped at $299 one-way; unrestricted, refundable, walkup fares to PVD and MHT will probably be similar to the $77 now offered from BWI. They won't accept more than $154 roundtrip BWI-PVD and the same will likely be true from PHL.

I hope that you folks in/near Philadelphia enjoy Southwest's service and style as much as I do. And because of this news, I'm now planning a trip to Philadelphia this summer to see the Cubs play the Phillies at the new ballpark and to enjoy some beer at Monk's Cafe and Ludwig's Garten.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 9:59 am

Originally posted by PurdueFlyer:
Regardless of what happens to PIT...I think this makes Roddey and the County Crew look woefully inept. For all the talk of how they are "trying to lure new airlines into the Pittsburgh market..." including carriers like WN...to have WN slip under the radar and land at PHL just seems to me like our leaders have dropped the ball, BIG TIME. Hope everything works out for the best.

*Very* true. You would have thought that with all that's going on with PIT and PHL (as a statewide issue), that PIT would have atleast been told that the people in PHL were in discussions with WN. There's a lot of egg on a lot of faces here in Allegheny County this morning.

avek00

Oct 28, 03, 10:04 am

WN's PHL service does not reduce PIT's lack of utility to US. Nor does it necessarily mean that PHL fares will broadly collapse, as WN customers tend to pay HIGHER fares because WN sells FEWER deeply-discounted seats than its full-service rivals.

------------------
Has YOUR airline won an award lately?

Arrzee

Oct 28, 03, 10:13 am

Originally posted by nawlinsdoc:
May I ask how this is done? (i.e. getting a good seat without getting to the gate way early?)

For starters, WN typically has very high frequency flights so their average load factor is somewhere around 60%. And they fly different versions of the same plane. If you make it in "Group B" at least, chances are you'll get an aisle seat. It might not be toward the front of the plane (where most people tend to grab first), but it will be OK nonetheless.

Obviously, this will not be the same for every flight, but the law of averages prevail.

Do I prefer this to assigned seats? Obviously not. But I can tolerate it, especially when the one-way walk-up fare is no higher than $299.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 10:34 am

Originally posted by avek00:
WN's PHL service does not reduce PIT's lack of utility to US. Nor does it necessarily mean that PHL fares will broadly collapse, as WN customers tend to pay HIGHER fares because WN sells FEWER deeply-discounted seats than its full-service rivals.

US's lowest current PHL-PHX fare is $400 (I used 12/11 as a travel date). The lowest WN fare would probably be in line with their fares for other transcon cities - $198. I can see a huge difference right there. US will have to match the price to remain competitive.

I'm thinking that WN is going to be very successful in PHL.

A couple other thoughts:

I wonder if WN will have any PHL-CLE service?

The trick to getting an aisle or window seat on WN is to be in either the first boarding group (1-30) or the first few in the second (31-60). If you're not in those groups, prepare yourself for elbow fights. I've flown WN to STL out of CLE about 20 times, and I must say that I love everything about them EXCEPT for the boarding situation. Weren't they recently discussing going to assigned seating?

[This message has been edited by tcollins33 (edited 10-28-2003).]

nehopper

Oct 28, 03, 10:58 am

I look forward to the same change as my flights to BOS. Last year I typically paid 600-800 on 3-7 days notice. Now, I can generally get them for the $200-$300 range. For a trip to PVD this summer, US wanted over $800! The answer was to drive. If Southwest can have the same impact on other destinations that Airtran had on BOS, my boss will be thrilled.

Tino

Oct 28, 03, 11:04 am

Welcome USAir fliers to the great Southwest experiment. It's a completely different game, both in terms of FF program, boarding and ticketing/pricing tricks. There are a lot of interesting loopholes/opportunities that don't exist with USAir. Some examples:

1. All tickets are refundable in the form of a credit. If you book a $99 round trip six months in advance, and then want to change/cancel your plans and book something else, there is no change fee and you kepp your $99.

2. People gripe about the "last minute fare increases" for Southwest, and that they don't allow standby. The maximum fare on any Southwest flight is $150. You can get Rapid Reward tickets from anybody, and the going transfer price is about $300/RT. They can be split in half and used as two one-ways. If you need to change your flight at the last minute, just cancel it, get your credit, and use a freebie instead.

3. Free booze for FF members. When you get your free ticket, you get a book of drink coupons.

4. Forget the cattle call. If you get there early and get an A or a B, just take a seat and wait for everyone else in your group to board. You'll still get a decent seat and you don't have to stand for another 30 minutes. Unlike the pushing and shoving at the "elite" airlines, they won't take any B's until they are done with the A's.

5. For people that b**ch about the assigned seating, who hasn't made a reservation 2 days before the flight and been told that all seats are "under airport control"? You, my friend, are then getting a middle seat. Here you have a fighting chance.

Saving the best til last:
6. The Companion Pass is awesome, and is even valid on award tickets. You don't even have to fly the 100 credits. You can just transfer credits over from Diners Club or other partners to hit the limit. Beautiful.

Spiff

Oct 28, 03, 11:04 am

Excellent news. Hopefully it will cause prices to decrease and get US to become more competitive out of PHL and stay in business.

Oct 28, 03, 11:12 am

ClueByFour

Oct 28, 03, 11:16 am

phllax

Oct 28, 03, 11:26 am

There is no way they are going to start with 40 flights a day. Better yet, I'd like to see how they are going to get 3 airplanes at the same time at the E10 A-C gates. At most they've had 2 airplanes parked there, but I don't think there is any way all 3 can be used at the same time with the 700's without some major adjustments.

My bets on cities are MHT, MCO, STL, BNA and MDW.

Tino

Oct 28, 03, 11:57 am

Originally posted by avek00:
as WN customers tend to pay HIGHER fares because WN sells FEWER deeply-discounted seats than its full-service rivals.


Does this include the $1200 "surcharge" that Grandma gets charged if she misses her flight and no more X/K/T/S/W/Z/etc fares are available?

A couple of these on a plane and you raise your revenue/flight dramatically.

JRF

Oct 28, 03, 12:45 pm

Originally posted by phllax:
There is no way they are going to start with 40 flights a day. Better yet, I'd like to see how they are going to get 3 airplanes at the same time at the E10 A-C gates. At most they've had 2 airplanes parked there, but I don't think there is any way all 3 can be used at the same time with the 700's without some major adjustments.

My bets on cities are MHT, MCO, STL, BNA and MDW.

You post as if you are an expert. Please tell us why they can not start with 40 flights a day!

pdhenry

Oct 28, 03, 12:47 pm

Originally posted by Tino:
The maximum fare on any Southwest flight is $150.The highest walk-up one-way is $299.

JRF

Oct 28, 03, 12:48 pm

Originally posted by nawlinsdoc:
May I ask how this is done? (i.e. getting a good seat without getting to the gate way early?)

You did USED to have to get to the gate way early. However, with kiosk you can now check in 3 hours prior to the flight (I am not positive on the 3 hours, but my last flight let me check in 3 hours prior). I was in group A.

If you are in group A there is no need to stand in line at the gate, just be the last one in group A and you will do fine. Group B is usually also okay to be last in, so long as the plane is originating in your airport.

The few rare times I get stuck in a middle seat, I switch at the next stop.

ITRADE

Oct 28, 03, 1:03 pm

Originally posted by JRF:
You post as if you are an expert. Please tell us why they can not start with 40 flights a day!

40 flights with four gates. Thats 10 gate movements per gate. At PHL - especially in bad weather - good f**king luck.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 1:11 pm

Originally posted by ITRADE:
40 flights with four gates. Thats 10 gate movements per gate. At PHL - especially in bad weather - good f**king luck.

I see your point, but that's really less than 1 per hour per gate. With WN's quick turnarounds, it seems quite possible. Although the situation at PHL throws any and every possibility into the mix.

GetReal

Oct 28, 03, 1:16 pm

Generally WN plane can taxi up, deplane, clean up, reload, and pull away from a gate in about 30 minutes.

So 10 gate movements X 30 mins = 5 hours. I wonder what they will do the rest of the day?

You are right, already operating in cities like ALB, BOI, BUF, MDW, CLE, and DTW - I doubt they will no what to think about a PHL winter.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 1:21 pm

Originally posted by GetReal:
You are right, already operating in cities like ALB, BOI, BUF, MDW, CLE, and DTW - I doubt they will no what to think about a PHL winter.

I think Itrade was referring to the fact that a mere rain shower can throw PHL into mayhem mode when other airports are fine.

FWAAA

Oct 28, 03, 1:31 pm

FWAAA

Oct 28, 03, 1:35 pm

Here's the press release:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031028/datu052_1.html

14 daily flights to start - more will certainly follow.

ITRADE

Oct 28, 03, 1:36 pm

Originally posted by GetReal:
Generally WN plane can taxi up, deplane, clean up, reload, and pull away from a gate in about 30 minutes.

So 10 gate movements X 30 mins = 5 hours. I wonder what they will do the rest of the day?

You are right, already operating in cities like ALB, BOI, BUF, MDW, CLE, and DTW - I doubt they will no what to think about a PHL winter.

Have you actually seen rain delays at PHL???????

Southwest 1512, you're number 34 for departure.

avek00

Oct 28, 03, 1:50 pm

Originally posted by FWAAA:
Any published source for the italicized assertion?? Any links to provide?

Actually, there are several published sources that feature this data. I'm going to get in touch with B747, as he is very familiar with the various sources, and paste some links or give info. (as appropriate) in this thread.

------------------
Has YOUR airline won an award lately?

rd7242

Oct 28, 03, 2:03 pm

This may not be as bad as people think for US.

First, what percent of PHL traffic is O&D? O&D fares will change, but I don't think connecting fares from other cities will.

Second, what percent of the above are southwest cities? Fares to LAX may go down, but not fares to non-SW cities

Third, Europe and Caribbean are money makers for US. Southwest doesn't serve either. This is where US keeps expanding because they make $$.

HPTunco

Oct 28, 03, 2:03 pm

PIT had no chance to win out over PHL in a beauty contest with PHL for SouthWest. The O/D traffic is considerably more in PHL.

I still bet that Rendell has a PIT/PHL bailout package on the backburner. He can't put all of his cards on the election since Roddy is a Repub and he's a Dem.

I'm sortof surprised that PHL would go for a LCC that will irreparably damage it's #1 source of revenue.

GetReal

Oct 28, 03, 2:08 pm

I don't know. Are all these long rain delays occuring with WN staff, WN planes, WN ground crews, WN systems, WN equipment, and WN procedures?

Just because US is a cluster F* at PHL, doesn't mean WN will be.

nehopper

Oct 28, 03, 2:12 pm

When the runway backs up it does not make any difference what your carrier is.

SEA_Tigger

Oct 28, 03, 2:17 pm

Originally posted by avek00:
Nor does it necessarily mean that PHL fares will broadly collapse, as WN customers tend to pay HIGHER fares because WN sells FEWER deeply-discounted seats than its full-service rivals.

Probably very true, but that is because full-fare on WN can often be less than a deeply-discounted fare on the Big Six - especially into and out of a "fortress hub".

So for someone who only cares about price, $299 Y on WN beats $399 S on The Big Six.

ITRADE

Oct 28, 03, 2:38 pm

Originally posted by GetReal:
I don't know. Are all these long rain delays occuring with WN staff, WN planes, WN ground crews, WN systems, WN equipment, and WN procedures?

Just because US is a cluster F* at PHL, doesn't mean WN will be.



Um, no but a single runway pair with closely spaced runways creates havoc with ATC operations. Its ATC that calls the ground stops and delays.

And it may not have been WN staff, WN planes, WN ground crews, WN systems, WN equipment, and WN procedures, that caused delays at SFO. But the runways and lousy weather certainly forced WN to decide to terminate service there.

[This message has been edited by ITRADE (edited 10-28-2003).]

rd7242

Oct 28, 03, 2:49 pm

Interesting comments from siegel. Sounds like he's scared #$%@

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031028/airlines_southwest_3.html

HPTunco

Oct 28, 03, 2:50 pm

I wonder if PHL gave CCY more than 20 minutes notice before the SouthWest announcement? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

In an environment of cooperation, this would never have happened. CCY took a stance that no agreement is sacred and now will watch their revenue and investment in PHL dry up.

I hope that those Hillbilly Teachers from Alabama have lots of cash to lose, because US just became a lousy investment.

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 2:56 pm

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 3:00 pm

Originally posted by ITRADE:
Um, no but a single runway pair with closely spaced runways creates havoc with ATC operations. Its ATC that calls the ground stops and delays.

Funny how that only seems to happen at half a dozen well defined periods of the day. Do you suppose WN will have the good sense to avoid scheduling their aircraft during those periods?

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 3:06 pm

Originally posted by rd7242:
This may not be as bad as people think for US.

First, what percent of PHL traffic is O&D? O&D fares will change, but I don't think connecting fares from other cities will.

Second, what percent of the above are southwest cities? Fares to LAX may go down, but not fares to non-SW cities

Third, Europe and Caribbean are money makers for US. Southwest doesn't serve either. This is where US keeps expanding because they make $$. 

People connecting through PHL and between WN O&D pairs are already reping the benefits if WN competition. This just removes the temptation to do a "hidden city" to get to PHL.

What this really does is put the squeeze on PHL monopoly fares. MHT to PHL, for instance, runs around $700 RT. If WN starts flying that route US is going to have a real tough time holding the line there and anywhere else that has lots of "business" traffic from a WN city to PHL.

I'll give Dave some free advice -- RJs, capacity reductions and service cutbacks aren't the answer. If he wants to preserve his route structure he better start making the produt noticably better than WN's. He's got about 6 weeks...

NeoOfTheCRS

Oct 28, 03, 3:13 pm

Why wouldn't Southwest fly to both PIT and PHL?

Oh and by the way. . .I think I just saw a guy in a black robe with sickle over his shoulder walking towards the Crystal Palace.

With great sadness, I fear US is toast. Game over. Cash out the DM Miles. They can't make a nickle with their current monopoly routes and subsidies not to mention having WN in PHL. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

Originally posted by tcollins33:
I wonder how much this will change US's attitude towards PIT. The general consensus has been that WN would come here. This PHL announcement is HUGE and totally came from nowhere.

This actually might be the best thing that happened to PIT, although I'm sure we're going to feel the pinch with fares as US tries to recoup themoney they're losing in PHL...

[This message has been edited by NeoOfTheCRS (edited 10-28-2003).]

Tino

Oct 28, 03, 3:36 pm

Originally posted by Tino:
The maximum fare on any Southwest flight is $150.
Originally posted by pdhenry:
The highest walk-up one-way is $299.


No, it's $150. Read my post again.

1. Get Rapid Rewards RT ticket for $300.
2. Tear in half.
3. Use coupon on any flight with an empty seat.
4. Save $149 (plus tax) per flight.

Ergo, the maximum fare is $150 each way.

[This message has been edited by Tino (edited 10-28-2003).]

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 3:39 pm

Originally posted by NeoOfTheCRS:
[B]Why wouldn't Southwest fly to both PIT and PHL?

Oh and by the way. . .I think I just saw a guy in a black robe with sickle over his shoulder walking towards the Crystal Palace.

With great sadness, I fear US is toast. Game over. Cash out the DM Miles. They can't make a nickle with their current monopoly routes and subsidies not to mention having WN in PHL. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif [B]

I couldn't agree more. WN in PIT wouldn't be a big deal - and certainly not as big as WN in PHL. PIT may eventually be in WN's plans, but this announcement coupled with WN's slow-and-steady growth plan makes it look as if nothing will happen in PIT anytime soon. And now it looks like it's a matter of time before US is out of the picture as a whole.

Time to start using up those miles!

lt1GM

Oct 28, 03, 3:45 pm

Originally posted by avek00:
Actually, there are several published sources that feature this data. I'm going to get in touch with B747, as he is very familiar with the various sources, and paste some links or give info. (as appropriate) in this thread.



Aah, avek00, he of CO board fame, welcome to the US Airways board! Here's looking forward to your back-up data.

tcollins33

Oct 28, 03, 3:45 pm

Originally posted by Tino:
No, it's $150. Read my post again. Only chumps pay full fare, on Southwest or (even worse) USAir.

Actually, the maximum fare is $299 and the MINIMUM fare is $150. From my understanding of WN's fare structure, there aren't really any good reasons to pay more, as there is with US's structure (non-refundable vs. refundable).

[This message has been edited by tcollins33 (edited 10-28-2003).]

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 4:03 pm

PineyBob

Oct 28, 03, 4:20 pm

Originally posted by GetReal:
Generally WN plane can taxi up, deplane, clean up, reload, and pull away from a gate in about 30 minutes.

So 10 gate movements X 30 mins = 5 hours. I wonder what they will do the rest of the day?

You are right, already operating in cities like ALB, BOI, BUF, MDW, CLE, and DTW - I doubt they will no what to think about a PHL winter.

The issue isn't the weather, it's the ATC issues and arriving at the gate late after sitting or sitting waiting to leave that will throw a huge wrench into the cogs of SWA. Besides most of the airports you mentioned have what 15 gates each versus over 100 at PHL,

N674UW

Oct 28, 03, 4:29 pm

WN is going straight for US's jugular...Im very curious what Siegel plans to do about it...I agree with TomBascom in that WN will probably schedule their flights around PHL's peak hours, and also with them being in Term E, I have a feeling they'll be allowed to use 27R for departure frequently which avoids the areas of PHL where most delays are in trying to get to 27L which is where most mainline departures are...

N674UW

[This message has been edited by N674UW (edited 10-28-2003).]

gnaget

Oct 28, 03, 5:08 pm

This is a huge wake-up call for US. Now they have to reform or they are finished!

WN has higher average revenue per seat because a) they fill their planes b) sell more full fare tickets at reasonable prices. However, they move the bar lower at both the rock bottom and the business fares.

The business fare structure will be seriously impacted for destinations like LAX, LAS, HOU and PHX. WN's full fare is $600 while US charges $2000+.

The low end will see a limited number of very cheap fares like shorthauls for $90 whereas the low end for US would have been $150.

CO is an interesting case since they have WN in their #1 hub, albeit not the same airport.

Back in 2001 when I used to fly to HOU on business I noticed that CO did not match WN on BWI-HOU. They offered a lower fare than DCA/IAD. Half of the $2200 but still nearly twice that of WN. However, US did match WN. Unlike CO, US did not have non-stops on this route.

[This message has been edited by gnaget (edited 10-28-2003).]

NeoOfTheCRS

Oct 28, 03, 5:13 pm

Originally posted by N674UW:
WN is going straight for US's jugular...Im very curious what Siegel plans to do about it...

Siegel is looking into his golden parachute clause right now. That is what he is doing.

WN will target US monopoly O&D routes. They would be silly to get into a slugfest over already inexpensive leisure markets.

US will counter WN's fares, but US will lose. WN has deep enough pockets and low enough costs to have a knock-down drag out fight with US long after we are buying US logo wine glasses from Ch7. Even if US reduced costs to WN's level, WN will still win because they have the cash to sustain.

gnaget

Oct 28, 03, 5:19 pm

I wonder how Kelleher traveled to PHL for the press conference?

a) Taking a corporate jet is not in line with his image.

b) Flying another carrier would be out of the question.

iflyPIT

Oct 28, 03, 5:44 pm

Do you think Pittsburgh is next or dont even count on SWA coming here?

PHL

Oct 28, 03, 5:53 pm

From the Inquirer article:
"Terminal E offers the ability to accomplish that because its is near the east end of the airport, where jets usually start their takeoff roll."

This is wrong, but I'm not surprised at the logistical error the writer didn't double check.

Terminal B/C is the most ideally situated for mainline jet departures/arrivals.

Terminal E is the worst positioned since the departures are usually on 27L and arrivals are on 27R (when the winds are from the West, which is the majority of the time anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.)

So, to depart on 27L, planes using E have to taxi South across 27R onto taxiway "M" down to the intersection of taxiways "S" and "N". I often see those planes from D & E heading on taxiway "L" to "S", which is even more out of the way. (see link below)

On arrival, after they touch down on 27R and rollout, they'll taxi off down by terminal A somewhere and have to make their way past B,C and D. Forget the 30 minute turnaround when it'll take that long just to land, taxi in and taxi out again.

I'm no airline exec, but certainly they looked at this is a potential choke point in their "quick turnaround" practice....

http://69.3.249.67/pics/phl.gif

[This message has been edited by PHL (edited 10-28-2003).]

pitflyer

Oct 28, 03, 6:08 pm

I wouldn't believe it if I didn't see the links myself. I'm not sure if congratulations is in order to our colleagues in PHL, but hopefully your fares will drop. I'm glad to see someone going for USAirway's jugular.

I gotta assume Southwest made a decision that they could avoid the delays that plague USAirways at PHL. If they don't, it'll just be a repeat of SFO, where Southwest pulled out after it couldn't solve the delays.

For my fellow PIT fliers, I do agree it shows how pathetic our current negotiating team is. I know they don't have the same position that PHL has, but to paint the rosy picture in the news all the time.. they're full of crap.

TWAforever

Oct 28, 03, 6:09 pm

Originally posted by gnaget:
I wonder how Kelleher traveled to PHL for the press conference?

a) Taking a corporate jet is not in line with his image.

b) Flying another carrier would be out of the question.

The second scenario is feasible as I remember from his book how he went to an airline meeting in NYC flew DFW-LGA non-stop in FC...The anecdote that he had was that while some other executives were waitinmg for limos, he just jumped in a taxi.

IndustrialPatent

Oct 28, 03, 6:10 pm

I find many of these comments to be humorous. WN is the only major USA-flag carrier that's proven to be profitable over the past many, many years... they've modestly expanded (they haven't added a new city in over a year!) over time ... they've ended service to only four cities (BPT very early on, the original DEN after costs/competition skyrocketed, DET in favor of DTW after airport improvements weren't made and, most recently, SFO for various reasons - including a limited schedule that would be better served from OAK/SJC). And some people here think that WN didn't do their homework at PHL? The announcement surprises me as well ... I would've picked ACY ... but I'm confident WN knows what it's doing.

- - -

It's not like US will eliminate PHL and move their transatlantic netowork, which they've cited as a bright spot, to CLT (or even PIT)... and it's not likely WN will add aircraft to or fly to Europe anytime soon.

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 6:18 pm

... it'll just be a repeat of SFO, where Southwest pulled out after it couldn't solve the delays

I don't think that was the reason for pulling out of SFO. There were many but one that I heard a lot of at the time had something to do with being able to properly staff the station with the right mechanics and spare parts.

TomBascom

Oct 28, 03, 6:28 pm

The speculation about west coast flying out of PHL being the target is interesting. But it's also interesting to consider what sort of damage WN could do by going after the East Coast business markets that they already have end points at. US charges big bucks on those routes to PHL, the planes are always full, and there are lots of PHL O&D people on those flights. WN could kick butt doing very early morning and late evening business oriented departures while avoiding the worst of PHL. At half of what US charges from, say MHT to PHL, they'd still be making money hand over fist, be seen as heros by the business community for the low fares. And since Dave is flying RJs on those early morning and late night flights the stampede could be crushing...

HPTunco

Oct 28, 03, 6:55 pm

This has got to be the FASTEST GROWING THREAD since BBB threatened to take out GOM miles last year!

DLSIZE

Oct 28, 03, 7:34 pm

uh oh......was that a toilet I heard flushing?

avek00

Oct 28, 03, 7:45 pm

IMHO, I doubt that WN will make a major play for nonstop PHL-West Coast traffic - WN loses its cost advantage as stage length increases, and the carrier would face stiff competition from multiple carriers who will devote resources to protect their yields. Rather, I suspect that WN will focus on targeting short/medium-haul flights to cities in the Midwest and along the East Coast, where US holds a nonstop monopoly and where WN can assure itself of receiving the high percentages of biz traffic that its business model depends on.

------------------
Has YOUR airline won an award lately?

[This message has been edited by avek00 (edited 10-28-2003).]

irabk

Oct 28, 03, 7:50 pm

Gee, I wonder if SW will adopt the cockroach as a mascot on the PHL planes?

dcmike

Oct 28, 03, 8:08 pm

Now if they could just get into CLT like JetBlue....

Tino

Oct 28, 03, 8:40 pm

WebTraveler

Oct 28, 03, 8:50 pm

This is interesting. I'd love to see what the route plans are for this and whether they go right at USAirways or steer clear of them in the begining and hit routes that there is little direct competition on. Then when Southwest gets a little foot in the door I would expect it to go head to head and open the door wide open.

I would think that the opening routes would probably include quite a few flights to Midway, a few to the large Phoenix & Las Vegas operations to get west coast connections online, plus some token BWI and PVD flights. Just a guess!!

ClueByFour

Oct 28, 03, 9:08 pm

Originally posted by IndustrialPatent:
It's not like US will eliminate PHL and move their transatlantic netowork, which they've cited as a bright spot, to CLT (or even PIT)... and it's not likely WN will add aircraft to or fly to Europe anytime soon.

Yeah, but now the cost of feeding the PHL flights will go thru the roof, as you won't be able to subsidize the connecting pax with the traditional sky-high monopoly fares for the O&D folks headed to/from PHL.

If you siphon off O&D from PHL, you are left with the CLT/PIT problem (limited O&D) and to add insult to injury, what you still have is paying a lower fare.

------------------
Don't feed the trolls.

IndustrialPatent

Oct 28, 03, 9:21 pm

Originally posted by ClueByFour:
Yeah, but now the cost of feeding the PHL flights will go thru the roof, as you won't be able to subsidize the connecting pax with the traditional sky-high monopoly fares for the O&D folks headed to/from PHL.

Maybe, maybe not. WN serves DTW. NW houses an operation there that's significantly larger than US's at PHL. Yet fares ex-DTW are among the highest in the country -- lesiure fares to cities like WAS, PHL and BOS usually top $300. NW often ignores most of WN's fares -- in fact, they don't always match sales & internet specials. WN plays a minor role at DTW. Who's to say that their role at PHL will be large?

[This message has been edited by IndustrialPatent (edited 10-28-2003).]

ClueByFour

Oct 28, 03, 9:27 pm

Originally posted by avek00:
IMHO, I doubt that WN will make a major play for nonstop PHL-West Coast traffic - WN loses its cost advantage as stage length increases, and the carrier would face stiff competition from multiple carriers who will devote resources to protect their yields.

It's not as if WN loses all their cost advantage, indeed, recent transcon expansion just down the road at BWI seems to indicate that they consider the trancon a natural way to grow the business.

But let's accept the premise that LUV indeed has enough of a cost structure to make money on a "cheap" transcon--which carrier currently flying transcons (or even midcons) from PHL has the "resources to protect their yields?" Hint: none of the majors, and I don't see Airtran headed for the coast in any great numbers from PHL until they bring some of the new aircraft on-line.

Besides which, you can put the hurt on both halves of the US/UA combination if you run PHL-OAK/SJC/SNA/LAX even once/day.

Rather, I suspect that WN will focus on targeting short/medium-haul flights to cities in the Midwest and along the East Coast, where US holds a nonstop monopoly and where WN can assure itself of receiving the high percentages of biz traffic that its business model depends on.

Despite my statements above, hades has frozen and we are in agreement. I'd expect to see MDW, RDU, MHT, PVD on the schedule almost immediately. Should US blink, you will then pickup the CLE (gulp!), HOU (gulp!), STL, and other cities.

------------------
Don't feed the trolls.

[This message has been edited by ClueByFour (edited 10-28-2003).]

CrazyOne

Oct 28, 03, 9:34 pm

Originally posted by tcollins33:
Actually, the maximum fare is $299 and the MINIMUM fare is $150. From my understanding of WN's fare structure, there aren't really any good reasons to pay more, as there is with US's structure (non-refundable vs. refundable).

Minimum fare? No. The maximum fare is $299 each way, period. (Tino's posts highlight a way to get RR tix from a third party, it seems. This does not magically lower Southwest's maximum walk-up fare to the prices noted. Walk-up inherently means no planning in advance.)

The fare structure provides for a fully refundable fare at the highest price level. This means actually credit the card back refundable. Southwest is liberal with allowing credit towards future flights with non-refundable fares (good for one year with no fee), so that advantage goes away a little. But keep in mind the standby policy: you must upgrade to available walk-up fare to go standby on an earlier flight. If it's already the fully refundable fare, you have nothing extra to pay. But I would agree, there's really no reason to buy a fully refundable fare well in advance.

I dunno where the minimum $150 comes from. I've seen segments at $29 to $39 each way based on roundtrip. They have to be short ones, obviously. Maybe a $150 minimum on the fully refundable? I could believe that, though it really doesn't make sense to me. I'm pretty sure I've bought refundables at less than that (when making last minute bookings).

(edit for formatting)

[This message has been edited by CrazyOne (edited 10-28-2003).]

trvlr64

Oct 28, 03, 9:46 pm

Originally posted by iflyPIT:
Do you think Pittsburgh is next or dont even count on SWA coming here?

Well there was a Southwest plane in PIT 2 months ago. Maybe herb stopped by to chat with Roddey for a while?!

pdhenry

Oct 28, 03, 10:14 pm

Originally posted by Tino:
You don't understand the fare structure at all. For the third time, the MAXIMUM amount on a Southwest flight is $150 each way. If you still can't figure it out, read my first two posts, and then if you are still lost, email me. I'm not shouting into the ground any more.

I guess that's what happens when you live in PIT too long and get used to paying high fares. The fare is $150 per one-way IF you're interesting in shopping the secondary market (apparently legal on Southwest, if you read their web page about reward transfers) and IF $300 per reward is a reasonably available(nothing to suggest it's not). I guess you could buy one or two in advance from someone and use them when you need to.

Not sure how to convince the travel department to go that route for business trips. It was already a challenge to get them to look beyong the CRS to the web for booking directly with Southwest.

If you're a corporate traveler who is a little price sensitive (but so much as to flaut corporate purchasing rules) $299 is the most you'll pay for a walkup Southwest one-way ticket.

[This message has been edited by pdhenry (edited 10-28-2003).]

MSP2000

Oct 28, 03, 10:30 pm

I read through all the WN threads today. I have to hand it to you guys, this is the best thread going. I hope US lurkers read this.

On a sidenote, I passed by a rather Fleet Bank Branch in Manhattan today. Through the glass, I could see a staff meeting in progress and a lot of long faces.This was obviously regarding the BOA & Fleet merger.

I wonder what is going on in the minds of US employees and their families.

[This message has been edited by MSP2000 (edited 10-28-2003).]

PineyBob

Oct 28, 03, 11:43 pm

This should be a Cockroach Call To Arms to demand that US Airways:

Mend fences with it's labor groups immediately

Develop a clear and concise strategy for dealing with the barbarians (SWA) at the gate.

Plan should involve ALL employees

Marketing incentives for all levels of elites and promotion to encourage elite qualification

Local TV Adds, cable isn't all that expensive.

tcollins33

Oct 29, 03, 2:09 am

IndustrialPatent

Oct 29, 03, 2:13 am

Originally posted by tcollins33:
Uhh, Tino...we're taking straight one-way fares here, NOT one-way based on round trip. You're not shouting at the ground here. 

Yes he is. He's saying you can purchase a Rapid Rewards ticket from eBay for $300 -- Rapid Rewards tickets are comprised of two one-way coupons. They have few black-out dates and can be redeemed on any flight provided WN is still selling seats.

[This message has been edited by IndustrialPatent (edited 10-29-2003).]

dingo

Oct 29, 03, 5:32 am

Originally posted by PineyBob:
This should be a Cockroach Call To Arms to demand that US Airways:

Mend fences with it's labor groups immediately

Develop a clear and concise strategy for dealing with the barbarians (SWA) at the gate.

Plan should involve ALL employees

Marketing incentives for all levels of elites and promotion to encourage elite qualification

Local TV Adds, cable isn't all that expensive.



"Mending fences" with unions doesn't sound too easy to me. I think they need to continue to push down costs at the gate and on the ground. If that means more cuts for employees they need to be ready to do it.

TomBascom

Oct 29, 03, 5:35 am

Originally posted by IndustrialPatent:
Maybe, maybe not. WN serves DTW. NW houses an operation there that's significantly larger than US's at PHL. Yet fares ex-DTW are among the highest in the country -- lesiure fares to cities like WAS, PHL and BOS usually top $300. NW often ignores most of WN's fares -- in fact, they don't always match sales & internet specials. WN plays a minor role at DTW. Who's to say that their role at PHL will be large?

[This message has been edited by IndustrialPatent (edited 10-28-2003).]

True. OTOH WN doesn't have such a natural set of targets available to it at DTW. If you look at the map of cities that WN serves and think about running a lot of traffic between them and various "business" O&D targets PHL suddenly makes a lot of sense.

NW probably ought to watch carefully though. They might be seeing a preview of their future...

deelmakur

Oct 29, 03, 6:37 am

Simply stated, what this does is drive a stake through the heart of the company's core strategy to drive yields by exploiting the enormous O&D (origination and destination) opportunities that come with dominance in one of the nation's 5 largest markets. As a sidebar, it exposes the risk the company took by migrating customers to RJ's on routes to large cities, and hanging on to higher than average fares for traffic originating at PHL (a lesson apparently not learned in upstate NY with jetBlue). Southwest can't outboard them, but it can starve them to death. As a collateral benefit, an eventual USAirways failure opens up numerous other opportunities throughuout the east coast. At the same time, they blunt expansion by jetBlue, and particularly AirTran, which has become quite frisky in that area. Yet another example of a company making decisions in a vacuum (US), and deciding that competitors won't deviate from historical practices.

dcmike

Oct 29, 03, 7:04 am

USAToday has an interesting article in today's paper about Southwest entering PHL:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/biztravel/2003-10-28-usairways_x.htm

One of the points is about the switch in BWI that has happened over the past 10 years - with US going from 44% of the traffic to about 4% while WN has gone in exactly the opposite direction from about 0% to 40%.

There is a graphic in the print edition that you don't get online showing the change.

The article say US only controls about 67% of PHL traffic - I would have though it higher. What percentage to they control in CLT and PIT?

jimcfsus

Oct 29, 03, 7:29 am

Originally posted by dcmike:
The article say US only controls about 67% of PHL traffic - I would have though it higher. What percentage to they control in CLT and PIT?

Isn't it like approximately 90% in both the CLT and PIT markets? I know CLT only has a few concourse A gates that aren't US.

------------------
A "Mileage Run"... is that what they're called? I've been doing them for years and didn't know they had a name.

rd7242

Oct 29, 03, 7:39 am

Probably flew to BWI like everyone else in PHL who wants low fares

Originally posted by gnaget:
I wonder how Kelleher traveled to PHL for the press conference?

a) Taking a corporate jet is not in line with his image.

b) Flying another carrier would be out of the question.

sassamanlaw

Oct 29, 03, 8:06 am

News flash: With the cry “Abandon Ship! Abandon Ship” thousands of cockroaches were spotted scrambling up the jetways at Philadelphia International Airport. The apparent destination of these migrating, mug toting, IFC munching roaches was the new Southwest Airlines gates in terminal F. USAirways spokesman BBB, a noted roach exterminator was quoted as saying “Good riddance to the roaches – if they won’t buy full Y fares we don’t want them”. Curiously, Mr. BBB was holding a copy of a resume in his hand and was wearing a lapel pin in the shape of a red heart with a number one on it when he made his comments. In another curious development the familiar USAirways jingle played over the intercom has been replaced by "Nearer my God to Thee". BBB had no comment as to the meaning of the change.

Well, Philly FTers welcome to the world of cattle calls. I wonder if UA will accept my Dividend miles after the ship sinks?

[This message has been edited by sassamanlaw (edited 10-29-2003).]

JerseyJohn

Oct 29, 03, 8:22 am

MrMan

Oct 29, 03, 9:03 am

tcollins33

Oct 29, 03, 9:21 am

Originally posted by IndustrialPatent:
Yes he is. He's saying you can purchase a Rapid Rewards ticket from eBay for $300 -- Rapid Rewards tickets are comprised of two one-way coupons. They have few black-out dates and can be redeemed on any flight provided WN is still selling seats.

That's kind of an out-of-the-ordinary way to buy tickets. Sure, you can do that, but I'm guessing that the vast majority of both business travelers and the general flying public do not buy their tickets in this way. There's a BIG difference between "walk-up-fare" and "broker-bought-fare". For myself, I know my company would *never* allow me to use a broker-bought voucher for travel. I'm only allowed to purchase tickets using our company travel agent, the website of an airline or a similar website (Orbitz, Travelocity, etc.).

[This message has been edited by tcollins33 (edited 10-29-2003).]

Nevada1K

Oct 29, 03, 9:24 am

Originally posted by rd7242:
Yes, but as soon as US folds PHL just like BWI when SW came in, that should ease congestion dramatically


Can't help but wonder if the arrival of WN at PHL will eventually facilitate the merger of US and UA under the "failing airline" concept.

As US is out of Ch. 11 and UA still in Ch. 11, I make no prediction on which one of the two is considered to be the failing airline. Obviously, the arrival of WN at PHL is not good news for US. If US is forced back into Ch. 11 at the time UA comes out of Ch. 11, it'll be hard for the feds to stop the merger this time.

sassamanlaw

Oct 29, 03, 9:41 am

Originally posted by Nevada1K:
Can't help but wonder if the arrival of WN at PHL will eventually facilitate the merger of US and UA under the "failing airline" concept.

As US is out of Ch. 11 and UA still in Ch. 11, I make no prediction on which one of the two is considered to be the failing airline. Obviously, the arrival of WN at PHL is not good news for US. If US is forced back into Ch. 11 at the time UA comes out of Ch. 11, it'll be hard for the feds to stop the merger this time.



That would be a marriage of cripples! Or worse, you could be arranging a marriage between a cripple (UAL) and a corpse (US).

[This message has been edited by sassamanlaw (edited 10-29-2003).]

Tino

Oct 29, 03, 10:27 am

GetReal

Oct 29, 03, 10:37 am

You mean there are people who don't go on Vacation every other weekend?

IndustrialPatent

Oct 29, 03, 10:44 am

Originally posted by GetReal:
You mean there are people who don't go on Vacation every other weekend?

Now that's crazy talk!

tcollins33

Oct 29, 03, 10:57 am

Tino: I actually did the reverse a few years ago. I was driving from PIT to CLE and flying WN to STL. Booking on line for $69 r/t and getting two credits. Four r/ts and I got the voucher, which I sold to a broker for $270. 4 x $69 = $276. I was flying four flights for $6.

rd7242

Oct 29, 03, 11:13 am

And they still manage a profit! US should use this opportunity to sit back, observe and see how an airline should do business

Originally posted by tcollins33:
Tino: I actually did the reverse a few years ago. I was driving from PIT to CLE and flying WN to STL. Booking on line for $69 r/t and getting two credits. Four r/ts and I got the voucher, which I sold to a broker for $270. 4 x $69 = $276. I was flying four flights for $6.

gregorygrady

Oct 29, 03, 11:49 am

Originally posted by tcollins33:
That's kind of an out-of-the-ordinary way to buy tickets. Sure, you can do that, but I'm guessing that the vast majority of both business travelers and the general flying public do not buy their tickets in this way.
Do the vast majority buy their tix this way? NO. Do the smart ones (or should I say the ones that care about not wasting all their money)? YES.

Originally posted by tcollins33:
There's a BIG difference between "walk-up-fare" and "broker-bought-fare". For myself, I know my company would *never* allow me to use a broker-bought voucher for travel. I'm only allowed to purchase tickets using our company travel agent, the website of an airline or a similar website (Orbitz, Travelocity, etc.).

Why would you WANT for your company to use a broker anyways? You do NOT get frequent flyer credit when using the $300 RT Ebay/broker bought tickets. I think Tino is talking about personal travel and/or if you own your own small business, are self-employed but need to travel, or do consulting or something similar (where you are trying to keep costs down). If you work at a large company that is willing to pay boatloads of $$$ for you to travel, of course you will not want them to buy a SWA ticket from a broker. In that case, you should be flying F Class on US, you should not even consider flying SWA. I think the point Tino is trying to make is that you CAN get real cheap flights on SWA anytime you really WANT to.

gregorygrady

Oct 29, 03, 11:52 am

Originally posted by sassamanlaw:
News flash: With the cry “Abandon Ship! Abandon Ship” thousands of cockroaches were spotted scrambling up the jetways at Philadelphia International Airport. The apparent destination of these migrating, mug toting, IFC munching roaches was the new Southwest Airlines gates in terminal F. USAirways spokesman BBB, a noted roach exterminator was quoted as saying “Good riddance to the roaches – if they won’t but full Y fares we don’t want them”. Curiously, Mr. BBB was holding a copy of a resume in his hand and was wearing a lapel pin in the shape of a red heart with a number one on it when he made his comments. In another curious development the familiar USAirways jingle played over the intercom has been replaced by "Nearer my God to Thee". BBB had no comment as to the meaning of the change.

Well, Philly FTers welcome to the world of cattle calls. I wonder if UA will accept my Dividend miles after the ship sinks?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

LoneStarMike

Oct 29, 03, 12:58 pm

Well, I'm shocked.

Having said that, here is some O&D and fare information for 2002 on selected PHL city - pairs (short haul routes only) that I got off the DOT website and my comments. It might be helpful to those who want to try and speculate as to what WN's initial routes will be.

PHL - ALB 212 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
061 - 071 - 071 - 062 - 066

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $256.83. I wonder how many more people would fly this route if the average fare was somewhere around $70.00? I don't see Southwest starting off with this route, but maybe sometime in the future.

PHL - BOS 280 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
904 - 1122 - 933 - 1116 - 1019

For Q4 2002 US had a 77% market share at an average fare of $214.10. AA was the lowfare carrier on the route with 13% of the market at an average fare of $175.75.

PHL - MHT 290 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
113 - 122 - 112 - 120 - 117

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $261.00

PHL - PVD 238 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
127 - 151 - 132 - 130 - 135

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $307.07

Based on the info in the above 3 city pairs, I could definitely see Southwest offering frequent service between PHL and both MHT and PVD at about a third of the cost of US's average fare and make an absolute killing.

PHL - BUF 279 Miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
112 - 136 - 115 - 121 - 121

For Q4 2002 US had a 98% market share at an average fare of $256.14.
Most likely would get nonstop WN service to PHL before ALB. Again, Southwest could charge 1/3 of what US wants on this route and still make a profit and most likely generate lots of new traffic.

PHL - MDW 678 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
1687 - 2386 - 2368 - 2142 - 2146

For Q4 2002 UA had a 34% market share at an average fare of $189.05. TZ (is that ATA?) was the low-fare carrier on this route with 13% of the market at an average fare of $129.22. I think Southwest might offer or 2 nonstops to MDW initially, but the rest of the frequencies would probably be 1 stops or connections at intermediate cities.

PHL - CLE 363 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
211 - 272 - 251 - 143 - 219

For Q4 2002 CO had a 85% market share at an average fare of $265.12. NW was the low fare carrier on this route with 2% of the market at an average fare of $244.60. Southwest could do well on this route, but I don't think they want to go after CO -- they seem to be focusing more on US. Also, I think they have said they would not add any new service into CLE until their relationship with the airport there improves. However, on the other side of Ohio, we have a better opportunity:

PHL - CMH 405 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
278 - 383 - 331 - 365 - 339

For Q4 2002 US had a 60% market share at an average fare of $170.56. HP was the low fare carrier with 37% of the market at an average fare of $151.17. But since then, HP has dismantled it's CMH hub. Does HP still offer n/s srvice CMH-PHL? If not, this would be another great opportunity for Southwest. I also recall reading that when HP closed it's CMH hub, CHM lost n/s service to LAX and that was the one route that city officials were trying to get another carrier to pick up. So maybe Southwest could do something like PHL-CMH-LAX.

PHL - DTW 453 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
527 - 654 - 602 - 592 - 594

For Q4 2002 NW had a 57% market share at an average fare of $214.53. US was the low fare carrier on this route with 39% of the market at an average fare of $203.10. Southwest could beat both of those fares, but again, I don't think they'll go after NW. I think they are looking for high-priced city pairs dominated only by US. I think Southwest will probably let US and NW duke this one out

PHL - BDL 196 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
151 - 179 - 144 - 140 - 153

For Q4 2002 US had a 100% market share at an average fare of $256.83. If that many people wil pay over $1.00 a mile to go for that short distance, imagine how many more would go if the avg. price was cut in third say to about $85.00. I know 196 miles is not a very long flight but if the price is right, people will fly. AUS - DAL, AUS - HOU, ORF - BWI, DAL - OKC and IND - MDW are all under 196 miles and all have multiple frequencies. I think BDL - PHL just screams for WN service.

PHL - BNA 675 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
210 - 232 - 213 - 215 - 217

For Q4 2002 US had a 78% market share at an average fare of $241.33. UA was the low fare carrier with a 2% market share and an average price of $145.13. Southwest could probably match UA's fare but do it nonstop and generate more traffic. At least one BNA flight would most likely continue to HOU.

PHL - ORF 212 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
102 - 139 - 128 - 091 - 115

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $242.00. Another wonderful candidate for n/s WN service. A market that is dominated by a financially weak carrier that is charging outrageous prices.

PHL - RDU 336 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
462 - 553 - 469 - 517 - 500

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $163.62. Another good candidate for n/s WN service.

PHL - RIC 198 miles

Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
101 - 110 - 092 - 078 - 0095

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $298.19. If and when Southwest ever goes to RIC, I wouldn't be surprised to see some RIC - PHL service.

I think if Southwest initially does well in PHL, we'll eventually see nonstop service from PHL to most of the cities in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast much like BWI enjoys today.

Just some of my (long-winded) random thoughts.

Mike

PremEx

Oct 29, 03, 1:47 pm

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/ericgillin/10123163.html

dcmike

Oct 29, 03, 1:55 pm

Originally posted by PremEx:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/ericgillin/10123163.html

I love how these numbers are totally off from the ones in the USAToday article. As the saying goes: There's lies, **** lies, and statistics!

Alysia

Oct 29, 03, 2:35 pm

Keith Alexander, the Washington Post reporter who came to one of our happy hours last winter and wrote a story about us, has acolumn in the Post about Southwest coming to PHL and the effect it may have on BWI:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31714-2003Oct28.html

TomBascom

Oct 29, 03, 3:14 pm

Originally posted by LoneStarMike:
Well, I'm shocked.

Having said that, here is some O&D and fare information for 2002 on selected PHL city - pairs (short haul routes only) that I got off the DOT website and my comments. It might be helpful to those who want to try and speculate as to what WN's initial routes will be.

PHL - ALB 212 miles
Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg Pax/Day
061 - 071 - 071 - 062 - 066

For Q4 2002 US had a 99% market share at an average fare of $256.83. I wonder how many more people would fly this route if the average fare was somewhere around $70.00? I don't see Southwest starting off with this route, but maybe sometime in the future.


I believe that this average fare data is misleading. You'd be hard pressed to find fares for sale between any of those cities and PHL for anything that remotely resmbles those fares. No matter how far in advance you buy the ticket.

Perhaps it's the cost of a single segment that touches Philly. But it definitely isn't the average cost of a RT between any of those cities and PHL.

Boraxo

Oct 29, 03, 4:01 pm

Great news for Philly, your advance purchase leisure fares will be plummeting on all those short-haul routes currently monopolized by USscare and UAexpress.

I'm not sure why avek is gloating, as this announcement is not a positive development for CO. If experience at BWI and Birmingham is any guide, there will be significant numbers of New Jersey passengers that will make the drive to PHL to take advantage of lower fares, rather than schlepping to EWR for bad service and worse service.

This is also good news for BWI as I predict a similar shift of SWA passengers to PHL which will reduce lines at the overburdened BWI facilities.

A Win-Win for all present and future WN customers!

chrislacey

Oct 29, 03, 4:48 pm

Originally posted by TomBascom:
I believe that this average fare data is misleading. You'd be hard pressed to find fares for sale between any of those cities and PHL for anything that remotely resmbles those fares. No matter how far in advance you buy the ticket.

Perhaps it's the cost of a single segment that touches Philly. But it definitely isn't the average cost of a RT between any of those cities and PHL.

Specifically regarding ALB-PHL, I know from experience that the price is generally about $308 for the advance purchase, sat night...blah blah blah.

I can also tell you that ALB-PHL or PHL-ALB or both are routinely listed as e-savers. They're so routine in fact that since my travel is at leisure to PHL, I only fly when there's an e-saver.

So for the ALB-PHL route, I don't think that the figure of just under $300 is too unrealistic.

Just my thoughs (and only about ALB-PHL)

Save Travels,
Chris

IndustrialPatent

Oct 29, 03, 5:23 pm

WN said they'll initially offer 14 daily flights. MDW and BWI are givens... that leaves room for one or two more low-frequency cities...

A320 EOW

Oct 29, 03, 5:56 pm

According to today's _Inquirer_:

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/business/7127187.htm

The airline has not yet said where it will fly to from Philadelphia. But analysts say likely routes would include Chicago; St. Louis; Nashville; Providence, R.I.; Manchester, N.H.; and several Florida cities such as Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando.

avek00

Oct 29, 03, 5:58 pm

Originally posted by Boraxo:
I'm not sure why avek is gloating

Where exactly did I "gloat" over WN's arrival into PHL?

------------------
Has YOUR airline won an award lately?

gnaget

Oct 29, 03, 6:07 pm

Are those listed average fares one way or R/T? As Tom pointed out they seem pretty low, but I also think they are a bit high unless there is a quite large % of full fare business travel.

Antother thought is that they don't include tax?!?

[This message has been edited by gnaget (edited 10-29-2003).]

jimcfsus

Oct 29, 03, 8:12 pm

Originally posted by IndustrialPatent:
WN said they'll initially offer 14 daily flights. MDW and BWI are givens... that leaves room for one or two more low-frequency cities...

PHL-BWI are a little too close together, even for SW standards, and I don't see that run for SW to use BWI as a hub. How about MDW, STL, RDU and MHT for 4 choices? Perhaps a Florida destination (MCO) or a US stronghold like BUF or ALB as a wildcard?

------------------
A "Mileage Run"... is that what they're called? I've been doing them for years and didn't know they had a name.

LoneStarMike

Oct 29, 03, 8:34 pm

Originally posted by gnaget:
Are those listed average fares one way or R/T? As Tom pointed out they seem pretty low, but I also think they are a bit high unless there is a quite large % of full fare business travel.

Antother thought is that they don't include tax?!?

[This message has been edited by gnaget (edited 10-29-2003).]

I got the fare information from table 6 of the Domestic Airline Fares Consumer Report (http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/domfares/domfares.htm) I believe the average fares listed are for one way travel.

Regarding the accuracy of the fare information, DOT's website notes that


In response to consumer inquiries regarding domestic airline fares the Department has begun issuing quarterly domestic air fare reports. The Consumer Air Fare Report provides information about average prices being paid by consumers in the top 1,000 domestic city pair markets in the continental United States. These markets account for approximately 70% of all domestic air travel.

Airlines tend to offer a wide variety of prices in any given market and it is unlikely that the average fares from this report will be the same as any particular fare currently being offered.

Also keep in mind the average fares I quoted in the above post were for the period Oct. 1 through Dec. 31 of 2002, so they're about a year old. Q1 figures for 2003 haven't been released yet.

Regarding the ALB - PHL example, here is what happened when Southwest started service on a similar city pair (ISP-BWI -- 220 miles -- so only 8 more miles than the ALB - PHL example).

ISP - BWI

Year - Q 1 - Q 2 - Q 3 - Q 4 - Avg
1997 - 000 - 041 - 041 - 027 - 036
1998 - 023 - 030 - 032 - 026 - 028
1999 - 112 - 608 - 644 - 529 - 473
2000 - 423 - 635 - 662 - 594 - 578
2001 - 482 - 714 - 685 - 473 - 588
2002 - 377 - 528 - 589 - 490 - 496

At the end of 1998 an average of 28 people per day flew ISP - BWI or BWI - ISP. US had a 96.68% market share at an average price of $179.19 each way.

Southwest started service to ISP in mid March of 1999. At the end of Q1 1999, Southwest's average price on that city pair had dropped to $56.14 each way. The average number of daily passengers went from 27 (Q4 '98) to 112 (Q1 '99) and keep in mind that Southwest only flew ISP - BWI the last two or three weeks of Q1 '99. By Q2 '99, Southwest's first full quarter of serving ISP, passenger traffic on that route had risen to 608 daily passengers at an avg. WN fare of $58.48 and WN had a 99.34 market share.

If Southwest can turn a 28 passenger a day route into a 500 passenger a day route, Imagine what they could do in some of the other markets I listed where the O&D is already strong in spite of high current high prices charged by US.

Mike

MSP2000

Oct 29, 03, 8:36 pm

I do not think WN will fly to BWI from PHL. At least, not initially. This has happened in OH. They were flying to CLE & CMH but not in between the two cities.

whlinder

Oct 29, 03, 8:38 pm

jimcfsus

Oct 29, 03, 8:46 pm

Originally posted by whlinder:
I believe those are one way fares and the pax/day is each direction. And I also do not think they include tax, though I am not sure.

14 flights a day? I say:
1x PHX, BDL, ALB, MHT, BUF, PVD, RDU, MKC, ORL, CLE
2x BNA, CHI

just a shot in the dark.

This is not SW's MO. Heavy frequency is their style. They may start out with 2-3 cities and do them 5-7 times a day and then slowly add cities and more flights as time goes on. Can you say this is what killed BWI for US?

------------------
A "Mileage Run"... is that what they're called? I've been doing them for years and didn't know they had a name.

LoneStarMike

Oct 29, 03, 8:54 pm

I also don't think we'll be seeing any
PHL-BWI flights on Southwest. I think eventually PHL will become (and BWI already is now) larger versions of Southwest in AUS and SAT. AUS and SAT have about the same number of flights and they're mostly to the same destinations. Both cities have n/s service to DAL, HOU, ELP, HRL, PHX, LAS, BWI, LAX, BNA, and SAN, but there is no service between AUS-SAT,which are only 75miles apart. PHL-BWI is 90miles and I think that's just too short.

ISP might have a chance at n/s PHL, though. At 130 miles it's a bit longer. Currently only about 15 people a day travel on the route, but again, US has 99% of the market and the average fare is somewhere around $250.00 each way according to the DOT statistics. If the price was right more people might fly. Plus I've read that Southwest would love to fly to the west coast n/s from ISP but can't right now because the runways are too short. Same situation at MHT. So in the meantime, why not do ISP-PHL-West coast or MHT-PHL-west coast? I think most people would prefer a one-stop through flight over a connection any day.

Mike

N674UW

Oct 29, 03, 9:17 pm

I also agree that PHL-BWI probably isnt in WN's original plans...there is already a trainlink from BWI to 30th Street Station in Philly and it just seems like a blatant waste of a flight when there are so many other destinations out there...

N674UW

NYCommuter

Oct 30, 03, 5:30 am

US Airways should be organizing all of its employees in Pennsylvania to put major pressure on state and local governments to do what they can to block Southwest from taking more gates. In Detroit, Southwest hasn't been able to drive Northwest out because Southwest has only 2 gates and can't get more. Surely government authorities realize that there will be lots of job losses in Pennsylvania if US Airways goes under; I would imagine that those losses would outweigh any gains to state residents due to cheaper fares from PHL.

JRF

Oct 30, 03, 6:17 am

Originally posted by LoneStarMike:

I also don't think we'll be seeing any
PHL-BWI flights on Southwest. 

Probably not.... HOWEVER...

I am flying BWI-PHL (US) connecting to a transatlantic flight. Offering a flight from BWI to PHL would allow for people who would not normally drive to BWI to now take advantage of BWI's almost complete WN network. If they don't start with a nonstop to LAX from PHL, then maybe PHL>BWI>LAX? I just think that offering service from PHL to BWI would find new customers that would not normally drive to BWI to save the $.

TomBascom

Oct 30, 03, 6:20 am

The fare data being for "one way" makes sense. That would be about right if you factor in that there is a percentage of Saturday night stay traffic in addition to the standard business traffic.

Typical Monday out Thursday back fares on those routes are around $700 and have been since time immemorial. There are no significant discounts that don't involve Saturday night stays. Ever. So unless you're really and truly taking a weekend trip to PHL you're paying at least $1/mile to get there from just about anywhere on the east coast.

If SWA starts flying those routes fares will almost certainly be cut in half -- or more. US may think that that is a bad thing and in the short run it might be. But what they never seem to believe in is the stimulating effect of deep reductions in fares. A whole lot of traffic that was never there before will be generated. This happens every time that SWA enters a market -- it's not wild speculation.

(And another thing -- In my case I'd probably stop using miles to fly to PHL and pay real $$$ for the tickets & they'd see actual revenue as a result http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif)

[This message has been edited by TomBascom (edited 10-30-2003).]

dcmike

Oct 30, 03, 6:40 am

Originally posted by NYCommuter:
US Airways should be organizing all of its employees in Pennsylvania to put major pressure on state and local governments to do what they can to block Southwest from taking more gates. In Detroit, Southwest hasn't been able to drive Northwest out because Southwest has only 2 gates and can't get more. Surely government authorities realize that there will be lots of job losses in Pennsylvania if US Airways goes under; I would imagine that those losses would outweigh any gains to state residents due to cheaper fares from PHL.

Given the games US has been playing with the state of PA over PIT, I don't think their pleas would have a very welcome reception.

I think PA authorities may be more worried about filling gate slots and being able to collect tax revenue as US slashes its schedules in PIT and PHL.

nehopper

Oct 30, 03, 6:57 am

Originally posted by NYCommuter:
US Airways should be organizing all of its employees in Pennsylvania to put major pressure on state and local governments to do what they can to block Southwest from taking more gates. In Detroit, Southwest hasn't been able to drive Northwest out because Southwest has only 2 gates and can't get more. Surely government authorities realize that there will be lots of job losses in Pennsylvania if US Airways goes under; I would imagine that those losses would outweigh any gains to state residents due to cheaper fares from PHL.

If Southwest were to displace US "entirely" would there be much of a job loss? Aren't most US employees in Philadelphia ticketing/gate/baggage folks and their supervisors? Wouldn't those jobs, more or less, remain (although maybe not the same people or the same rates)? If Southwest were to build load at PHL, would that build employment and fees for the city?

jimcfsus

Oct 30, 03, 7:29 am

From http://thehub.usairways.com/ ...

"It's Official - US will “stand and fight” as Southwest prepares to enter PHL market"

I'd love to know the spin from the CCY gang... only US employees who have logins can see the article.

So, does "stand and fight" mean let SW do to us in PHL as they did at BWI??

------------------
A "Mileage Run"... is that what they're called? I've been doing them for years and didn't know they had a name.

MrMan

Oct 30, 03, 7:52 am

Originally posted by NYCommuter:
US Airways should be organizing all of its employees in Pennsylvania to put major pressure on state and local governments to do what they can to block Southwest from taking more gates. In Detroit, Southwest hasn't been able to drive Northwest out because Southwest has only 2 gates and can't get more. Surely government authorities realize that there will be lots of job losses in Pennsylvania if US Airways goes under; I would imagine that those losses would outweigh any gains to state residents due to cheaper fares from PHL.

Why? First WN will be creating jobs, not only with the airline, but also with business that will locate to or more likely stay in Penn due to lower transportation costs. In addition the consumer will get more options, lower costs, and better service. This is the beauty of the free market system at work.

Finally, Detroit built WN their own concource. They have more than two gates available at DTW. DTW is not expanding because they can put their existing planes in more profitable routes such as Philly.

MSP2000

Oct 30, 03, 8:59 am

It is true that WN will create jobs at PHL. Obviously, their payscale will not have parity with US.

Even if WN creates 1 job for every job lost at the US with the same job function, this would mean less disposable dollars for the individual,city, state and the feds.

The other side of the argument will be that the consumer and the businesses will save on the fares and it will spur tourist and business growth in the region.

Just like any other business decisions, there will be winners and losers.

MrMan

Oct 30, 03, 9:32 am

Where do you get WN pays less. There rampers make more than US, their 737 pilots make more, and soon with the new contract their FA make more. That does not include benefits, profit sharing etc. The way WN makes cash is they are more productive, the FA clean planes, the gate agents load bags. Note also WN is the most unionized of all the airlines

MrMan

Oct 30, 03, 9:34 am

.

[This message has been edited by MrMan (edited 10-30-2003).]

MrMan

Oct 30, 03, 9:36 am

FWAAA

Oct 30, 03, 10:40 am

Originally posted by avek00:
Actually, there are several published sources that feature this data. I'm going to get in touch with B747, as he is very familiar with the various sources, and paste some links or give info. (as appropriate) in this thread.



Still waiting for any evidence that WN sells fewer deep discount tickets than its competitors.

lt1GM

Oct 30, 03, 11:07 am

ITRADE

Oct 30, 03, 11:21 am

Just remember that simply because Southwest does not fly to the destination non-stop, the fare drop does not exist.

For years, WN flew BWI-SAN with only connecting service. But, that did not stop the fares in the market from being as low as $189 r/t.

So, from the second a WN plane hits the tarmac, fares to at least 40 - 50 markets from PHL are trashed.

TomBascom

Oct 30, 03, 11:39 am

Originally posted by FWAAA:
Still waiting for any evidence that WN sells fewer deep discount tickets than its competitors.

It seems kind of obvious when you frame it that way.

WN has a lot less room to discount. After all -- 80% off on US walk-ups is still more than WN's full fare http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

I got my latest version of this story from, I believe, an AMEX Travel survey (but I can't find the source...) The statement I was referring to was a little different from "fewer deep discount" though -- it was "a higher percentage of full fares". Which, again, makes a lot of sense when you look at the relative prices.

Spending a little time on Google I easily found multiple press releases from SWA pegging their percentage of full fare ticket sales between 35% and 40%. The other airlines seem to hide this data... But I did find This gem (http://www.air-transport.org/public/publications/display1.asp?nid=964) from the Air Transport Association which states that the industry average is under 10%.

[This message has been edited by TomBascom (edited 10-30-2003).]

Beckles

Oct 30, 03, 1:21 pm

Originally posted by nehopper:
If Southwest were to displace US "entirely" would there be much of a job loss? Aren't most US employees in Philadelphia ticketing/gate/baggage folks and their supervisors? Wouldn't those jobs, more or less, remain (although maybe not the same people or the same rates)? If Southwest were to build load at PHL, would that build employment and fees for the city?

1. Southwest will never operate as many seats and/or flights out of PHL as US does now, that's just not the way they work, none of their current cities are that large and I doubt PHL would be that much larger than any of their current cities.

2. Southwest has the smallest number of mechanics on a per plane basis of any of the large carriers, so most of the mechanics would be out of work (which after pilots, is probably the next highest paid work group on average).

3. I doubt WN would have as many pilots and F/A's based in PHL as US now does, see #1, they would never have nearly as many flights out of PHL as US so therefore less F/A's and pilots would be based there.

The question is, would the loss of those jobs be offset by the economic benefit of WN now serving PHL? For a city as large as PHL, I kind of doubt it ...

tcollins33

Oct 30, 03, 1:50 pm

Originally posted by TomBascom:
Spending a little time on Google I easily found multiple press releases from SWA pegging their percentage of full fare ticket sales between 35% and 40%. The other airlines seem to hide this data... But I did find This gem (http://www.air-transport.org/public/publications/display1.asp?nid=964) from the Air Transport Association which states that the industry average is under 10%. 

Very interesting. I'm guessing that it's mainly because WN's full fare is so much less expensive than US's comparable fare. That link made for some very interesting reading. Thanks!

NeoOfTheCRS

Oct 30, 03, 4:06 pm

LOL!!

Originally posted by sassamanlaw:
News flash: With the cry “Abandon Ship! Abandon Ship” thousands of cockroaches were spotted scrambling up the jetways at Philadelphia International Airport. The apparent destination of these migrating, mug toting, IFC munching roaches was the new Southwest Airlines gates in terminal F. USAirways spokesman BBB, a noted roach exterminator was quoted as saying “Good riddance to the roaches – if they won’t buy full Y fares we don’t want them”. Curiously, Mr. BBB was holding a copy of a resume in his hand and was wearing a lapel pin in the shape of a red heart with a number one on it when he made his comments. In another curious development the familiar USAirways jingle played over the intercom has been replaced by "Nearer my God to Thee". BBB had no comment as to the meaning of the change.

Well, Philly FTers welcome to the world of cattle calls. I wonder if UA will accept my Dividend miles after the ship sinks?

[This message has been edited by sassamanlaw (edited 10-29-2003).]

whlinder

Oct 30, 03, 8:49 pm

Originally posted by ITRADE:

So, from the second a WN plane hits the tarmac, fares to at least 40 - 50 markets from PHL are trashed.

You know US far better than I, but I only counted 30-odd cities that US actually flies to that WN also flies to (and thus can potentially publish fares to).

Of course with UA codeshare, US can fly a portion of an itinerary to RNO or EUG or GEG and will lose revenue there.

Additionally, WN might not publish fares to all of their cities immediately if there is no viable connection... with only 14 flights a day, I don't see how they will be able to offer itineraries to all their cities, unless they fly a morning PHL-BWI segment.

FOH

Oct 30, 03, 10:21 pm

On the latest Southwest Airlines quarterly conference call, the CFO said that in Q3, 36% of tickets sold were full fare.

But also added that since their full fares are so low that it doesn't necessarily imply a pickup in business travel because some leisure travelers also are willing to pay full fare.

N674UW

Oct 30, 03, 10:45 pm

Are there any other cities in WN's route structure where its not possible to go from one city to another in one trip due to scheduling conflicts??

N674UW

bry99

Oct 30, 03, 11:20 pm

CRP has those kinds of problems because all our flights pass through HOU then DAL. Thanks to the Wright Amendment, if your destination isn't in a neighboring state or if you can't get to your destination on a same-plane flight from HOU, WN won't sell a ticket from CRP.

Fortunately, if I need to double-connect, I just buy a $68 RT Internet Special to HOU and tag that on to whatever itinerary I purchase out of HOU. At 1/4 RT in Rapid Rewards credits (3/16 RT, unfortunately, after Dec. 31), the $68 fare pretty much pays for itself.

Even if last-minute leisure travel is necessary (e.g., for the College World Seres last June), the approximately $100 one-way fare to HOU is still tolerable when used in conjunction with a Rapid Rewards ticket (which itself is equivalent to a full Y fare).

(By the way, the WN Companion Pass is the best frequent flyer benefit around, provided you have someone to designate as your companion. For example, one $68 RT fare gets both my wife and I to HOU, and four of those trips earns me a free ticket -- and the Companion Pass is honored with the free tickets too. That's a lot of travel for approximately $300.)

[This message has been edited by bry99 (edited 10-30-2003).]

IndustrialPatent

Oct 30, 03, 11:28 pm

Originally posted by N674UW:
Are there any other cities in WN's route structure where its not possible to go from one city to another in one trip due to scheduling conflicts??

WN's scheduling is screwy. For example, for the longest time one could not fly DTW-RNO, even though it was possible with one, 55-minute connection.

Unimatrix One

Oct 31, 03, 4:00 am

IndustrialPatent

Oct 31, 03, 4:03 am

Originally posted by Unimatrix One:
Then why did I just pay $283 for SNA-OMA one way on WN?

Because you didn't purchase your ticket on eBay. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

He's saying RR tickets can be had from eBay for $300, or OW $150 since they're just two one-way coupons. There's no restictions and little back-out dates...

Unimatrix One

Oct 31, 03, 4:17 am

Originally posted by IndustrialPatent:
Because you didn't purchase your ticket on eBay. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

He's saying RR tickets can be had from eBay for $300, or OW $150 since they're just two one-way coupons. There's no restictions and little back-out dates...

OK, that's all fine and good, but his statement was that "the maximum fare" on any Southwest flight is $150. That's misleading, considering that there are actually much higher published fares, and the "maximum" $150 fare is only possible by buying secondhand rapid reward tickets. The maximum fare that anyone will actually pay on a WN flight is $299, which is still quite reasonable considering what the "full-service" (don't you love the term "full-service" used to describe RJ-flying, overpriced airlines) airlines charge on similar routes.

[This message has been edited by Unimatrix One (edited 10-31-2003).]

deelmakur

Oct 31, 03, 6:43 am

It doesn't matter what the Southwest fare is. It will be lower than the one USAirways had in mind when it planned its recovery around building up PHL. In addition, when you only offer commuter planes to major cities, the difference between yourself and SWA becomes negligible. This is all about strategy. As for our guys, how do you spell "Check Mate".

whlinder

Oct 31, 03, 7:25 am

Thinking about this further, how many cities are there that are not served by HP, FL or TZ (with a connection) that WN will be publishing fares to? That number isn't so huge... however having 1500 more cheap seats into PHL each day is, thus forcing US to allocate more seats to lower fare buckets.

minnie

Oct 31, 03, 10:50 am

I got some interesting insight from a Continental exec the other day about this situation.

1. The reason for most of PHL's delays are due to US having older planes. With older planes, it apparently takes much longer for them to move and get off the ground. SW has much newer planes and can move much faster. The traffic might actually get better if US lessens the number of flights.

2. Southwest has said that they will not deal with any international flights so US will still have their Caribbean and European flights as well as the their Eastern Corridor business but SW will take to places like Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. where US doesn't have a strong dominance in.

3. US will increase their amount of RJs with their capacities being lower.

And my own opinion- why didn't SW go to Allentown or Trenton? The suburbs are a prime target area for more leisure travel and it's becoming more difficult (car traffic) to get to PHL.

Arrzee

Oct 31, 03, 11:29 am

Originally posted by minnie:
...
And my own opinion- why didn't SW go to Allentown or Trenton? The suburbs are a prime target area for more leisure travel and it's becoming more difficult (car traffic) to get to PHL. 

Because their true target is the business traveler.

TomBascom

Oct 31, 03, 12:34 pm

Originally posted by minnie:
I got some interesting insight from a Continental exec the other day about this situation.

Insight from an airline executive? I'd pay to see that!

 1. The reason for most of PHL's delays are due to US having older planes.

Older than what? Compared to whom? US' fleet is no longer populated with DC-9s and 737-200s... The Airbus fleet is pretty darned new. The fleet just looks old because they don't clean them (inside or outside) and paint them anymore.

... The traffic might actually get better if US lessens the number of flights.

Typical airline executive "insight". The funny thing is that that probably is a revelation to most such persons...

2. Southwest has said that they will not deal with any international flights so...

SW also said there was no way that they would come to PHL.

I wouldn't bet too much that SW (and the other LCCs) won't jump on the international and Carribbean routes sooner than people think.

... as well as the their Eastern Corridor business but SW will take to places like Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas, etc. where US doesn't have a strong dominance in.

Maybe. Or maybe SW is after that Eastern Corridor. Herb wants to go to where the people are.

3. US will increase their amount of RJs with their capacities being lower.

Thus accelerating the death spiral.

And my own opinion- why didn't SW go to Allentown or Trenton? The suburbs are a prime target area for more leisure travel and it's becoming more difficult (car traffic) to get to PHL. 

Because, as Arrzee points out, they aren't after leisure travelers. That's a smoke screen. They're all about business travel.

gregorygrady

Oct 31, 03, 2:09 pm

Originally posted by Unimatrix One:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by Tino:
You don't understand the fare structure at all. For the third time, the MAXIMUM amount on a Southwest flight is $150 each way.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Then why did I just pay $283 for SNA-OMA one way on WN?

Do you only read the first two sentences of each post UnimatrixOne? If you read Tino's posts, he explained he to get the cheap fares SEVERAL times. If I were you Tino, I would feel like banging my head against the wall as hard as I could about 100 times. Your best bet is to give up, some of the slower people will just NEVER get it. Hopefully UnimatrixOne's company paid for that $283 SNA-OMA ticket, otherwise he is definitely one of the "slower ones".

ClueByFour

Oct 31, 03, 4:19 pm

N674UW

Oct 31, 03, 6:44 pm

I think TTN is fully capable of getting a 737 to fly a transcon...I only have to look to SNA(whose longest runway is 300' shorter than TTN's) with CO serving it with 737NG's from EWR as a case example...

Nonetheless I agree in that their terminal facilities are painfully inadequate for WN to go in there with any significant service...

N674UW

LoneStarMike

Nov 1, 03, 12:00 am

Originally posted by minnie:

And my own opinion- why didn't SW go to Allentown or Trenton? The suburbs are a prime target area for more leisure travel and it's becoming more difficult (car traffic) to get to PHL. 

The article from the Trenton paper about Southwest starting service to PHL has some good background on why Southwest isn't in Trenton already.

Airline dips into Phila. market (http://www.nj.com/news/times/index.ssf?/base/news-1/1067421925107842.xml)


Thinking along similar lines, Southwest had expressed extreme enthusiasm about the idea of flying into the Trenton-Mercer Airport - if officials there could secure permission to carry out an expansion plan.

"We were very interested in Trenton-Mercer at one point in time, but there was such an outcry from the surrounding community that the project seemed to go fallow, and we had to turn our sights elsewhere," Kelleher said.

"Now that we have expanded into Philadelphia, that's obviously going to be our focus in the region for the time being," he continued. "However, as we get more established here, the possibility certainly exists that we will take another look at Trenton-Mercer if they can complete that expansion. It's in a great location."-- -- --

Mercer County Executive Robert D. Prunetti reacted to the news about Southwest in Philadelphia with a mixture of disappointment and hope.

"If we could have moved ahead faster with our airport expansion, there's no question in my mind that they would have major operations here and no plans to start serving Philadelphia," Prunetti said.

"We charge less than Philly. We never have congestion. We even have free parking. From what they told us, our airport with that expansion would be exactly what they were looking for."

Prunetti first proposed a new terminal and a new parking lot at Trenton-Mercer back in 1998. The Mercer County Freeholders approved the money to complete the applications a couple of years later.

The administration completed the forms and sent them to the Federal Aviation Authority several months after that. Then, everything stalled.

Though the FAA had originally voiced strong support for the project, Prunetti says the government started dragging its feet after receiving protests from homeowners in Ewing, where the airport is located, and across the river in Bucks County, Pa.

"Congressmen started getting involved and pressuring the FAA to reject the idea," Prunetti said. "Then, they started holding public hearing after public hearing. I suspect they were afraid of getting sued, and they wanted to make sure they dotted every `i´ and crossed every `t´ before they made a decision."

Despite the long delay, Prunetti expects a response from the FAA soon.

Mike

NeoOfTheCRS

Nov 1, 03, 11:44 am

Huh?? There are a lot of things wrong with US but one of them IS NOT the fact that they have an old fleet.

NW has the oldest fleet and if you abided by that logic they'd also be the last in on-time arrivals.

Originally posted by minnie:
1. The reason for most of PHL's delays are due to US having older planes.

Nov 2, 03, 10:19 pm

Originally posted by gregorygrady:
Do you only read the first two sentences of each post UnimatrixOne? If you read Tino's posts, he explained he to get the cheap fares SEVERAL times. If I were you Tino, I would feel like banging my head against the wall as hard as I could about 100 times. Your best bet is to give up, some of the slower people will just NEVER get it. Hopefully UnimatrixOne's company paid for that $283 SNA-OMA ticket, otherwise he is definitely one of the "slower ones".

Lose the attitude, please.

If you have to catch the next flight, and it leaves in three hours, are you really going to go on eBay and buy a secondhand Rapid Rewards ticket?

------------------
"Yippie-kay-yay, Mr. Falcon!" -- John McClane, Die Hard II As Seen on TV

Nov 2, 03, 10:46 pm

Originally posted by Tino:
The vast majority of chumps are also paying too much for their flights. Companies that disallow Priceline hotel stays for their employees because it's not a "proper channel" deserve to pay more as well. Not my problem.



I think it's a bad idea to encourage companies to spend as little as possible on business travel.

Companies have already cut back quite a bit in the last few years. The result is that airlines are making it harder to obtain elite status, and once you do obtain it, the benefits are less generous than they used to be.

If all companies took your advice, not only would the elite status levels of frequent flyer programs disappear, the frequent flyer programs themselves would disappear, because the airlines would go out of business.

It's just not possible for 100% of passengers to pay rock-bottom fares.

If the company wants to pay "regular" prices, which are often much lower than they were 5-10 years ago, so be it.

------------------
"Yippie-kay-yay, Mr. Falcon!" -- John McClane, Die Hard II As Seen on TV

[This message has been edited by JS (edited 11-02-2003).]

gregorygrady

Nov 3, 03, 12:54 pm

Originally posted by JS:
If you have to catch the next flight, and it leaves in three hours, are you really going to go on eBay and buy a secondhand Rapid Rewards ticket?


If you're smart and you care about the money in your wallet, YES YOU PROBABLY WOULD GO ON EBAY AND BUY A SECONDHAND RAPID REWARDS TICKET!! Now that the Rapid Rewards tickets are electronic, you can do just that for a flight 3 hours away. It's almost as easy as calling in for a reservation and could end up being only half the price.

Nov 3, 03, 1:14 pm

Originally posted by gregorygrady:
If you're smart and you care about the money in your wallet, YES YOU PROBABLY WOULD GO ON EBAY AND BUY A SECONDHAND RAPID REWARDS TICKET!! Now that the Rapid Rewards tickets are electronic, you can do just that for a flight 3 hours away. It's almost as easy as calling in for a reservation and could end up being only half the price.

If it's a personal trip, and you're close to the airport, and you're already packed (or you pack fast), sure, that's a great idea.

What if it's a business trip? I can't expense a Rapids Reward ticket. Even if I could, why would I want to do that? Companies have cut travel quite a bit in the last couple of years, but if they can pay "only" $299 one way for a walk-up fare, they will be just delighted.

Here's another one -- suppose you want to travel on a RR blackout date. If it's a personal trip that has to be done on a particular day (e.g., funeral), you will HAVE to buy that walk-up fare. Or if it's a business trip, surely you can't make everyone else change their schedule just to fit some RR blackout dates. That wouldn't make any sense.

------------------
"Yippie-kay-yay, Mr. Falcon!" -- John McClane, Die Hard II As Seen on TV

martin33

Nov 3, 03, 2:51 pm

Originally posted by deelmakur:
It doesn't matter what the Southwest fare is. It will be lower than the one USAirways had in mind when it planned its recovery around building up PHL. In addition, when you only offer commuter planes to major cities, the difference between yourself and SWA becomes negligible. This is all about strategy. As for our guys, how do you spell "Check Mate".

yes, I do agree that's the bottom line. once the super-expensive fares are gone in the markets WN *does* choose to publish fares in, there won't be enough revenue left to keep US's other PHL ops in business.
it's very very hard to see a viable scenario in which CheckMate, Summer '04, isn't the sole possible outcome.

TomBascom

Nov 3, 03, 6:56 pm

Originally posted by martin33:
...it's very very hard to see a viable scenario in which CheckMate, Summer '04, isn't the sole possible outcome.

It will take longer than that (if this is the only factor, which it isn't). By mid to late summer we might be able to say something like "mate in 12" with confidence though.

It seems unlikely but US could still pull it off. If they face reality, fix the fares and concentrate on positive differentiation from the LCCs. The good news is that with things as bad as they are now it'd be pretty easy to make positive changes -- the only thing that's really stopping them is force of habit...

martin33

Nov 3, 03, 11:57 pm

Originally posted by TomBascom:
It seems unlikely but US could still pull it off. If they face reality, fix the fares and concentrate on positive differentiation from the LCCs. The good news is that with things as bad as they are now it'd be pretty easy to make positive changes -- the only thing that's really stopping them is force of habit...

well, I would agree up to a point---except that the long harsh winter is just about here to chew up the months between now and next April with weaker loads and fares. hard to see anything but drain from here to April, and then the onslaught begins...

Arrzee

Nov 4, 03, 6:33 am

Originally posted by TomBascom:
... If they face reality, fix the fares and concentrate on positive differentiation from the LCCs. ...

Their actions as of late suggests they have a warped sense of reality, so it doesn't look very hopeful.

nehopper

Nov 4, 03, 6:35 am

Originally posted by TomBascom:
It seems unlikely but US could still pull it off. If they face reality, fix the fares and concentrate on positive differentiation from the LCCs.

Like low-cost First to LAS? Where they are selling the bigger, leather seat and complimentary drinks?