WestJet Rewards - YFC...too small of a market?

For the past couple of years, I've been stuck here in YFC, seeing WestJet fly into Moncton daily and Saint John seasonally, and wondering why they don't give YYZ-YFC a shot? Air Canada is able to run 4 RJ's to Toronto daily, 3 dash 8's to both Montreal and Halifax, and 1 dash 8 to Ottawa. That's roughly 500 seats per day that Air Canada has coming into this city....surely, WestJet can make one 737-600 work on YYZ-YFC.

I really don't get why Westjet has seasonal service into Saint John instead of year-round service into Fredericton. You'd think with the university here there wouldn't be any problem supporting a daily flight through the winter months -- a problem that Saint John had back in 2007-2008 when they had 3 flights per week in the winter.

Just my $0.02...

I'm sure the military wishes there were bigger jets going in there. A buddy of mine is in the reserves and goes to Gagetown every couple summers for a couple weeks. He goes into YFC. His gear goes to YHZ or sometimes YQM and comes back by truck.

I can't see how the Moncton-Hamilton flight is still around. That should be switched to Fredricton-Toronto.

Or maybe a midday triangle Toronto - Saint John - Fredericton - Toronto would work year round.

YYZ-YSJ-YFC-YYZ could work, but I'm thinking YYZ-YFC-YYT-YFC-YYZ might be even more profitable. Right now, there are zero direct flights from New Brunswick to St. John's, Nfld, despite a large number of students from Nfld in Fredericton and people with ties to Nfld....the price to get from YSJ/YFC/YQM to YYT is selling for a premium on Air Canada these days...a direct flight from YFC-YYT would attract pax from all over NB, combine that with some through traffic from Toronto to St. John's and some point-to-point traffic YYZ-YFC, and you could have a winning route.

I can't see how the Moncton-Hamilton flight is still around. That should be switched to Fredricton-Toronto.

I took that flight a couple of weeks ago and it was packed. It seemed virtually everyone was continuing on to points in Western Canada. The fact that it has a good departure time (4:50 pm) plus quick connections in YHM (around 30 minutes) might explain that route's popularity. WS has been running it for about 10 years now.

Or maybe a midday triangle Toronto - Saint John - Fredericton - Toronto would work year round.

That's been tried, but with questionable results. Air Canada Tango did it for a while, as well as Royal Airlines and later Jetsgo. Perhaps those midday arrivals and departures wouldn't work for many people.

YYZ-YSJ-YFC-YYZ could work, but I'm thinking YYZ-YFC-YYT-YFC-YYZ might be even more profitable. Right now, there are zero direct flights from New Brunswick to St. John's, Nfld, despite a large number of students from Nfld in Fredericton and people with ties to Nfld....the price to get from YSJ/YFC/YQM to YYT is selling for a premium on Air Canada these days...a direct flight from YFC-YYT would attract pax from all over NB, combine that with some through traffic from Toronto to St. John's and some point-to-point traffic YYZ-YFC, and you could have a winning route.

Canjet had a daily YYT-YQM-YYZ flight and couldn't make it work, even with Moncton's greater population reach. As a New Brunswicker, I'd love to see WS serving more places in the East, but the reality is that it's more profitable to use planes on higher yielding routes. I recall Canjet frequently advertising flights to YYZ and YYT in the $100 range, which was perhaps an indication of that route's limited financial potential.

The Eastern market is very seasonal and price sensitive, which is why you see WS launch seasonal service to a few markets and increase frequency in others during the summer. Travel demand shrinks after September. I'm sure YFC will get its opportunity at some point but there's much larger markets and routes to chase at this point in time.

WS will only fly routes that will fill its 737s with a minimum stop-over requirement. Take-offs and landings waste a lot of fuel, so such milk runs are no longer as viable as they used to be, and people want non-stop service over direct (interim stop) flights. It was paid by the Newfoundland and Labrador government to start service onto that island, so it would be up to the local municipality in Fredericton to subsidize the route. AC/JAZZ is also pretty entrenched, so you'd have to induce AE members to forego collecting their miles to switch to WS unless fares were rock bottom, and then WS couldn't make money on the route.

Until WS gets smaller planes, its growth to tertiary cities is extremely limited, and seasonal at best.

It was paid by the Newfoundland and Labrador government to start service onto that island, so it would be up to the local municipality in Fredericton to subsidize the route.

I think you're referring to the Government of PEI who paid to have WS institute YYZ-YYG service a few years back. If I recall correctly, WS began YHZ-YYT or YYZ-YYT service (can't remember what came first) quite awhile back on their own with no subsidies.

WS will only fly routes that will fill its 737s with a minimum stop-over requirement.

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It was paid by the Newfoundland and Labrador government to start service onto that island, so it would be up to the local municipality in Fredericton to subsidize the route.

I guess I was figuring that Westjet currently has two 737's flying between YHZ and YYT daily, and I just can't see there being that much o/d traffic. One of the flights is a "direct" one-stop flight YYZ-YHZ-YYT, and the other flight has a convenient connection in YHZ from YYZ. If the direct flight stopped in YFC instead of YHZ, there could be some benefits to Westjet. As price sensitive as NB is, people here are paying $300+ excluding taxes o/w for flights YFC/YSJ/YQM to YYT. YHZ-YYT flights on WS are currently $79-ish for the same dates. A one-stop flight through Fredericton could help to develop a new market in YFC profitably while, at the same time, stealing away pax paying high fares on AC to YYT. Less capacity on YHZ-YYT could also increase the average fare on that route....more $$ for Westjet all-around. Only drawback is reduced frequency on YHZ-YYT, but those flights aren't timed well right now for biz travellers anyways.

As for subsidies, I can't see any government here in NB opening up their purse strings....maybe a good deal on landing fees is about the best one could hope for. AC's service here isn't bad, and prices aren't terrible....but I'd like to see some competition here all the same.

Canjet had a daily YYT-YQM-YYZ flight and couldn't make it work, even with Moncton's greater population reach. As a New Brunswicker, I'd love to see WS serving more places in the East, but the reality is that it's more profitable to use planes on higher yielding routes. I recall Canjet frequently advertising flights to YYZ and YYT in the $100 range, which was perhaps an indication of that route's limited financial potential.

One thing that WS has that Canjet / Royal airlines didn't is the ability to offer significant connections in YYZ. A flight leaving YFC around 5pm, in time to make connections in YYZ to YEG/YYC/YVR is a significant advantage to making the flight work.

There've been big improvements in Maritime Provinces highways. TCH twinned from Halifax to the NB-PQ border, Confederation Bridge, twinning in NS to Cape Breton. Leisure travellers, on their own nickel and in families/groups of 2 or 3 or more can achieve savings by driving to YQM or YHZ to avail of WS service. YFC to YQM is an hour and a half by car. Cracking the AC business traveller service at YFC would be a tough job. And, yes, YFC is too small a market.

With respect to the highway, YQM-YFC isn't that long of a drive, but it still has a major effect. The highway is unlit at night, and nobody likes driving on it after dark when they can't see whether or not a moose or deer is lurking at the side of the road. If you're flying into Fredericton from points west of Ontario, after a long day of travel you just want to go home and rest, not drive for an hour and a half. If you land in YHZ late at night, you'll probably get a hotel room.... While Fredericton may be a smaller city that YQM or YSJ, it is much more transient in nature. The university has a lot to do with this. 12,000 students, most of which aren't from this small city of 50,000. A lot of the faculty aren't from the city either, so they're frequently travelling for personal reasons and/or conferences. As a percentage of the population, people here travel a lot more than people from YSJ or YQM. A lot of those students may not own a car, making getting to YSJ or YQM unfeasible. And even if you own a car, its a lot more convenient/cheaper to have a friend drive you to the airport/pick you up than it is to make the trek out to YSJ or YQM.

Fredericton currently sustains 500 seats per day from Air Canada during the winter AND there are a number of people in this city who make the trek out to YSJ or YQM when the fares start to significantly differ. This means that the city can support even more seats per day than it currently has. With o/d traffic from all of NB to YYT, between YFC/YYZ, YYT and points west of YYZ, YFC and points west of YYZ, I really think this route is viable.