Mexico - Is Mexico tourism about to go over a cliff?

They're now gunning town US consulate employees in Juarez.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/world/americas/15juarez.html

Sure, not every place is Juarez, but the damage this is going to do to Mexico's image in the United States will be incalculable. The only hope is the media will downplay it as "just being Mexico."

I doubt the incidents in Juarez will cause much if any damage to tourism in Mexico - foreign tourism. The news from the border zone has been bad for the past couple of years, and this is just another example of how out of control that region of the country is. Who but persons having family in the area would want to visit, anyway? "Tourists" weren't victimized in this most recent incident. People driving into Mexico place themselves at risk, though.

They're now gunning town US consulate employees in Juarez.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/world/americas/15juarez.html

Sure, not every place is Juarez, but the damage this is going to do to Mexico's image in the United States will be incalculable. The only hope is the media will downplay it as "just being Mexico."

Well when you add in the Acapulco area massacre this weekend -- during high-profile Spring Break time -- it's not looking good. Even though tourists were not targeted there, it still can frighten, especially those who might not read beyond the headlines.
And then there are those (above posters excluded!) who just hear "Mexico" and may write off the entire country.

AAJetMan: maybe you should more fully explain what you're saying - when you post what may be misleading comments, or comments people unfamiliar with the area might misconstrue.

The incidents you attribute to having taken place in Acapulco didn't occur in the city nor anywhere near where tourists would travel to or through - except for two murders. "Acapulco" is a city as well as the equivalent of a large county in the USA - lots of square miles outside of the city of Acapulco.

That 2 murders took place in a city of over 1 million people isn't cause to run about yelling the sky is falling. Yes, there is a lot of violence in Mexico right now and people should continue to remain aware of what's going on in their destination cities.

Drug abusers in the USA might also seek help for their addictions - which would help to lessen the drug-related violence taking place in Mexico (because it's the cartels battling for distribution routes into the USA that are causing so much of this violence in Mexico).

...The incidents you attribute to having taken place in Acapulco didn't occur in the city nor anywhere near where tourists would travel to or through - except for two murders. "Acapulco" is a city as well as the equivalent of a large county in the USA - lots of square miles outside of the city of Acapulco.
In hopes that nobody will misunderstand, I've elaborated by changing "Acapulco" to "Acapulco area".

That 2 murders took place in a city of over 1 million people isn't cause to run about yelling the sky is falling.

Two murders in themselves might not be classified as "sky is falling" events. A trend toward drug war-related executions, however (recall June 2009), can certainly cause alarm. At the very least, we would not want another crossfire event in Acapulco. There are far worse implications as well.

For now, I'm not sensing tourists being targeted, and thus wouldn't change my travel plans if I were planning to go to Aca (just returned last month, so it might be a few months before I return).

It doesn't take much to make Americans avoid Mexico. Remember swine flu? There seems to be little doubt that the violence in the country is escalating.

Hardly any American tourists "have" to go to Mexico. There are many other sun destinations. I think it's going to be a rough few years for the tourist industry there, with is built almost exclusively on US tourists.

Our 19yo niece is heading back home next week to Mexico City after staying here 6 months studying English.

She doesn't want to go. The news reports have her scared and with the crime that has impacted her family and friends down there I can't say that I blame her.

Many years ago I traveled all over Mexico by thumb and bus. It was great--and safe.

IMHO, any North American who goes there now is nuts.

All the efforts to claim that tourists are not targeted, tourists areas are safe, etc. ring very hollow.

What's wrong with Costa Rica? @:-)

Many years ago I traveled all over Mexico by thumb and bus. It was great--and safe.

IMHO, any North American who goes there now is nuts.

All the efforts to claim that tourists are not targeted, tourists areas are safe, etc. ring very hollow.

What's wrong with Costa Rica? @:-)

Nuts? Is the risk REALLY that great?

Frankly, I thought the perception was significantly worse than the reality. Remember, most folks are going for vacation, and you can easily go elsewhere for vacation.

That said, it is now almost as cheap to fly to Costa Rica. Or Panama. I'm sure those places will attract some of the Mexico tourist crowd. Of course, the bigger winners are the Caribbean, Florida and Hawaii.

I don't have statistics to back it up but anecdotal evidence suggests to me that Mexico tourism has long since gone over a cliff? Maybe not nationwide but at least certain tourist areas are virtual ghost towns compared to bygone years.

Perception is reality to most people. And how the U.S. media is currently portraying Mexico is what will sway many to look else where to spend their tourist dollars. The footage on our local news last night with bullet riddled vehicles right next to the Mayors office in Ciudad does not make someone want to book a trip to Cabo or Cancun for a nice relaxing time. Besides there are still officially 8 million unemployed and unofficially 12 million unemployed in the U.S. So more family trips in the states this year.

It means some really good bargains for those willing to travel to Mexico.

I was in Leon, GTO just 2 weeks ago and I had absolutley zero issues. I went out at night drinking with some suppliers, ate lunches and even walked the streets next to the hotel during the day and evening.

Even ate tacos at 1am after leaving the bar !!

Of course, I do not walk into the colonias or barrios looking for "culture immersion" either !!

So, it is safe as long as you know where you are going.

Living next to Juarez, I ABSOLUTELY REFUSE to go to that city.

I am sure Mexico toursim will suffer due to the violence, but it will not "go over the cliff" just yet.

Leon, GTO is a surprisingly nice city, from my viewpoint. A large city with a rich history . . . and lots of leather products! The historic center of the city surprises many people - being so pleasant. I was in Leon about 13 months ago, for the state fair (a trip which also included San Miguel de Allende, Celaya, Queretaro and the D.F.).

Regarding media coverage of the recent violent incidents we're talking about here (in the USA press), and violence in Mexico in general: I think the matter is underplayed and not given the coverage it warrants, given the seriouness of the matter. Some folks always want to attack the messenger, and that's how I view media critics on this and most other issues.

No. But stay away so prices will be lower and the traffic better for the rest of us. Go to Florida instead.

I imagine that in six months time we will be able to look at the statistics but I will be shocked if tourist travel to MEX is not hit hard by the recent media coverage of the drug violence there. Coverage (often sensational, cursory and inaccurate) has been extensive, on both TV and in the written press. Just talking to friends, who aren't all that unsophisticated, many of them have stated they simply will head elsewhere, which is unfortunate. Many cannot differentiate between Juarez and CUN. We will travel to MEX and believe that unless you are in the narco-trade, or very unlucky, the risks are very low.

Nevertheless, its also inaccurate to downplay what has been a massive uptick in drug violence in MEX over the past few years and, indeed, it has spilled over to those not involved in the drug trade. The MEX paper cover this story daily. Bystanders have been killed, including a small number of tourists. Regarding the recent murders in ACA, in truth a few bodies were dumped (or killed there) right where hundreds of tourists go to party every night, on the mountain road near to Las Brisas where a number of clubs are located. That never happened years ago, neither were bodies unceremoniously dumped on the Costera in ACA as they are now. It is very sad for MEX and a drop in tourist arrivals will only aggravate the situation. Its also unclear if hotels cutting rates will bring back many North American tourists.

Bloomberg: Reports of drug-related gang violence are deterring even adventuresome college students.

What will become of Real World Juarez?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a7V6HER9EXLU&pos=12

Regarding the recent murders in ACA, in truth a few bodies were dumped (or killed there) right where hundreds of tourists go to party every night, on the mountain road near to Las Brisas where a number of clubs are located. That never happened years ago, neither were bodies unceremoniously dumped on the Costera in ACA as they are now.

The statement isn't accurate, from what I know from reading reports in the local Mexican/Acapulco media on events over the weekend.

The two bodies were on a somewhat isolated stretch of highway between Las Brisas and Puerto Marques - not an area "hundreds to to party every night." There are no businesses in the vicinity where the bodies had been dumped (after the persons were supposedly killed elsewhere)

Bodies aren't being "unceremoniously dumped" on the Costera in ACA . . . from what I know of the situation. The violence being referenced, almost exclusively, took place outside of Acapulco in the "county" areas and not where tourists (especially foreign tourists) are likely to be found.

Violence in the state of Guerrero has been high for many years. More people are killed in that vast expanse and mostly rural state of about 2.9 million yearly than are murdered in the metropolitan Chicago area (maybe 4 million people depending upon how one defines the area - but more than in Chicago proper, with about 2.4 million). And the murders aren't taking place, in any large number, in Acapulco (with its population of 1,000+), but, rather, in the rural areas and small towns.

Several years ago there were gunfights on Costera Miguel Aleman, also where the cliff divers perform (at midnight), and near some hotels; and heads severed from bodies were found on a beach or two. Nothing like that violence has been seen in Acapulco since (including this past weekend with the two bodies).

Tourist numbers - foreign tourists - dropped sharply last year mostly because of the H1N1 influenza and negative publicity - and in some instances because of the increasingly violent crime situation. Few regions of the country have been spared exposure and the continued - and justified - media coverage doesn't help in convincing people to come to Mexico, though most tourists probably visit places where risks would be minimal (Cancun being the principal foreign destination for Americans). Most violent situations never make the national media in either Mexico or the USA - it's often in the local Mexican papers (where they exist) where you'll learn of these things - and by word of mouth, and in the social media.

It's true, also, that given the option of wanting to visit Mexico but not knowing the language or how to learn what the actual current situation is at any given time and the prospect of visiting a different destination which may be considered less risky and more safe - the easier choice (of not visiting Mexico) is what people may understandably make.

We had relatives that went to CUN last year after the H1N1 scare started to subside. They booked an all inclusive hotel for about 70% off noramal rates. I believe their aifrare was under $150 A/I r/t fm JFK. Said the Hotel Zone was a ghost town. This was in October of last year, well after the H1N1 had sputtered out. But our local media here in the PNW has done several reports about the violence, and they mentioned what was going on in ACA. Made it sound like people were getting gunned down just blocks away from the tourist zones. In fact they mentioned that if people did decide to go to ACA, (for spring break) they should stay within a specific 4 block area. Just one look at hotel and package deals to ACA compared to CUN tells how desperate they are for tourists in ACA. PAC 10 Universities have all issued warnings about traveling to Mexico.

Regarding the bodies found near the nightclubs on the mountain road in ACA, it seems they were found near Brisas de Marques. That is the new "booming" area with substantial recent and very expensive developments. That road, during Spring Break, or Semana Santa, can be bumper to bumper in the evenings, though likely not at 5 in the morning. The rest of the story also is below:

A las 04:50 horas, en la Avenida Escénica, a la altura del Mirador de Brisas del Marqués, fueron localizados dos cuerpos más que se encontraban atados de manos y decapitados.

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/665736.html

The bodies found on the Costera, this past weekend, and over the past months, have at times have their heads separated from their bodies. Unceremoniously.

Various media are already reporting on the expected tourism decline:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-18/mexico-tourism-suffers-as-drug-gangs-rain-on-spring-break-party.html?chan=autos_travel+--+lifestyle+subindex+page_travel+news

None of this is to say that the fears of many, who say they won't go anywhere in MEX are justified, as mentioned we plan to go. Yet, trying to convey the story that these events are not serious, aren't of much import either to MEX or to tourists, is not accurate. The pace of violence has exploded in MEX over the past year. Tourists are nearly never affected but the issue is certainly there.

Your information about Acapulco is not accurate, especially comments regarding geography, where clubs are located, where developments are, etc. No point in arguing back and forth, but such misinformation only serves to further confuse people looking for valid information. Have a great weekend, everyone.

It went over a cliff a couple of years ago. I live in San Diego, visit Tijuana periodically (a major Mexican tourist destination), and can attest to the fact that it is practically a ghost town these days as far as tourism goes.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/TRAVEL/03/19/Tijuana.mexico.tourism/index.html?hpt=Sbin

There are generaly 100+ murders in Oakland every year, a city of 400,000 so I am not really to afraid of my upcoming trip to Mexico. I am going to drive through the Del Rio/Ciudad Acuna border rather than crossing at Juarez.

We went to Cabo in fall of 2008 and found a great reason to go back (somebody is turning 50, group trip!) We aren't deterred by media reports. Partially because Cabo is very far from teh border, very far from mainland Mexico.

To many people, a report trouble in Mexico means trouble in ALL of Mexico. Some reports are not as specific in localizing the incidents, and sometimes the people just aren't understanding the size of Mexico.

Being uniformed as to where along the border the bad crap is happening, you could not convince me to cross by car just now. But, not something I was thinking about doing anyway! Tijuana has been on my NOT A CHANCE list for a bit now.

Tourism is sucko from violence, economy, swine flu. Staycation is going to be the thing for many Americans this year by necessity. We still have high unemployment/stagnant wages, while prices continue to increase. So given the fewer vacation dollars, high cost of air, it's not likely there will be much international travel this summer.

the violence will continue on and I only hope that innocents are spared.

I suspect that for American tourists with no drug connections, the most dangerous part about a trip to Mexico is the risk of traffic accidents. Certainly this was the most scary part of my recent trip to Mexico, which included Mexico City, and, for that matter, the most scary part of my previous trip to Mexico. Actually, probably the most scary part of any trip to Mexico I have had, although when taking a long-distance bus from El Paso through Chihuahua into Zacatecas, I did find the military men with machine guns a bit unnerving now and then.

For the record, let me say I have visited Mexico more than 20 times over the past 20 years, including a week with my family in February.

But just this week a conference I was scheduled to attend in Monterrey – until recently one of the safest cities in Mexico -- was cancelled after two Monterrey Tec graduate students were killed in a shootout between the Mexican army and narcos, at the gates of their university. And the Mexican press (El Norte of Monterrey) report that narcos have been able to stop all traffic on certain roads in the city more than 30 times, including running an 18-wheeler across a major highway.

Now, I had always thought that Cancun and Playa del Carmen were much safer than the rest of Mexico, at least from narcotics gangs. So today’s headlines are really worrisome. At the place in the state of Michoacan where narcos cut off and left the heads of four victims a sign says “Rufo, we know you are with your family at the Hotel Riu Palace in Cancun.”

Now, if the narcos start trying to hide in the big tourist hotels the violence among rival gangs, and gangs and the police, is going to have an immediate impact. But how can the hotels turn the narcos away? They will themselves immediately become targets and their business will fold. On the other hand if they do admit narcos (and what choice do they have?) their tourist clientele will promptly flee.

It is a very tough situation for all, but having narcotics gangs hiding out in five-star Cancun hotels is not a healthy sign for Mexico tourism.

GTO is becoming much too popular. It's my favorite place on earth. To Typical Tourist Types: There is no beach; winters are not tropical and sometimes not even warm; and there is lots of highbrow music. There is nothing for you here: only 300-year-old buildings, a huge, boring university and the dull goings-on that define college towns. In short, you wouldn't like it. Acapulco, Cabo, Cancun, and Puerto Vallarta are much more suited to your tastes. There might be more crime, but consider this: If you are just a little careful, you will be safe. Look upon it as an adventure. There is no high life in GTO. You would hate it. Who needs all that history?

I am looking forward to a trip to CUN this June. My wife is worried about safety considering all the reports on the news lately (although I don't believe I heard Cancun being mentioned once). Have you heard anything that is worth worrying about? We were planning to spend a longer vacation in Mexico (after our few days in Cancun) but that doesn't look like it'll happen.

It'll be me, my wife and our 3 year old.

CUN is Florida in Mexico, very safe. The old city itself might be different (it seemed okay when I was there a few weeks ago) but there isn't much to see anyway. Enjoy the beach...

While the narco to narco violence and the narco vs. government violence is noteworthy, tourists are not a target of this violence. There is no drug cartel or gang waiting to ambush the average tourist.

I find Mexico remarkably safe. I ride my motorcycle there often. From Houston it takes about a day to ride to the border. Once I cross the border I just ride south to the many points of interest that are far off of the Gringo-beaten tourist path. There are lots of cool and adventurous things to do down there, and I find the people remarkably friendly and accommodating. I recently visited Parras de la Fuente, the oldest winery in the Americas is located there.

Here are the latest stats showing the fall-off in tourism due to the violence.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1313818720100413?rpc=44

Here are the latest stats showing the fall-off in tourism due to the violence.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idCNN1313818720100413?rpc=44

:confused:

I don't see any evidence in this article, beyond pure speculation, that the drop in foreign visitors is "due to the violence." Gosh, it couldn't have anything to do with our lousy economy, could it?

:confused:

I don't see any evidence in this article, beyond pure speculation, that the drop in foreign visitors is "due to the violence." Gosh, it couldn't have anything to do with our lousy economy, could it?

Um, you really don't think violence is reducing Mexican tourism? I'm always looking to vacation where the headlines say lots of people are being gunned down.

GTO is becoming much too popular. It's my favorite place on earth. To Typical Tourist Types: There is no beach; winters are not tropical and sometimes not even warm; and there is lots of highbrow music. There is nothing for you here: only 300-year-old buildings, a huge, boring university and the dull goings-on that define college towns. In short, you wouldn't like it. Acapulco, Cabo, Cancun, and Puerto Vallarta are much more suited to your tastes. There might be more crime, but consider this: If you are just a little careful, you will be safe. Look upon it as an adventure. There is no high life in GTO. You would hate it. Who needs all that history?

I travel frequently to Leon and have yet to encounter the cartels. Maybe because I am not in DRUG business.

It is amazing how most American hear the reoprts and then decide that the ENTIRE country of Mexico is UNSAFE !!

Um, you really don't think violence is reducing Mexican tourism? I'm always looking to vacation where the headlines say lots of people are being gunned down.

Well, I don't necessarily disagree that there is an effect on tourism, however, your statement, "Um, you really don't think violence is reducing Mexican tourism?" in and of itself doesn't actually equate to "evidence." Furthermore, people "being gunned down" seems to be fairly constrained to border areas, which IMHO, is not generally where people are looking to vacation.

Regards

I travel frequently to Leon and have yet to encounter the cartels. Maybe because I am not in DRUG business.


Ok, that is just an idiotically naive statement. The fact that you haven't personally "encountered the cartels" means exactly and absolutely nothing, statistically speaking.

I've traveled to Juarez on business, I didn't get shot, I'm not in the drug business, ergo Juarez is safe! :confused:

Look, we travel to Mexico frequently, just returned from another trip last month, we had no trouble (nor have we ever, in about 15 years of traveling there) but that in and of itself does not mean that one cannot get caught up in trouble there even if you are "not in the DRUG business." To imply that if you are not "in the DRUG business" you'll be fine, IMHO is reckless advice.

And again, before others reply, be clear on my position, I've travelled to Mexico for many, many years, I do so now, I plan to in the future. BUT to imply that traveling to Mexico is the same or as safe as it always has been, is just not accurate.

Regards

I travel frequently to Leon and have yet to encounter the cartels. Maybe because I am not in DRUG business.

I like Leon. I like it a lot. Though one doesn't hear of it in the international news, there's been a noticible uptick in drug-related and general crime deaths there. Celaya has some serious problems too, and I like that city in Guanajuato also.

About people getting upset about news reports of violence in Mexico - reports from regions scattered throughout the country - one tends to be more concerned when it's the Mexican media outlets which are broadcasting the alarms.

Mid-afternoon, La Costera.
Not gonna be helpful for tourism.
6 Killed in a gunfight in Acapulco center (http://www.elimparcial.com/EdicionEnLinea/Notas/Nacional/14042010/441419.aspx)

:confused:

I don't see any evidence in this article, beyond pure speculation, that the drop in foreign visitors is "due to the violence." Gosh, it couldn't have anything to do with our lousy economy, could it?

I'll agree. A 4% drop in tourist arrivals in Cancun in Q1 of calendar 2010, as the linked Reuters article quotes, could be due to a host of factors including temperate winters in some areas, sluggish economy as well as safety & security concerns. Attributing the drop solely to safety & security concerns is unrealistic IMHO.

Yes, this latest violence in Acapulco is different, to some extent. Bystanders were also killed due - likely - to the policia opening fire perhaps a bit too randomly. While many of us have thought "its fine to travel to MEX because I'm not involved in the drug business," when bystanders are cut down, in a main shopping area, that is different. Of course, ACA does not receive the number of US tourists it used to but, as another poster mentioned, when people hear "violence in MEX" they think its the entire country. It is very sad.

Indeed, we were set to send our daughter for a few weeks to a language program in Guanajuato this summer, aimed at young teens. Beautiful small town. Safe. The trip was cancelled by the company. Apparently, parents called and said they weren't sending their children.. . . .

Likewise, the company's similar language trip to Oaxaca, was also cancelled.

Indeed, we were set to send our daughter for a few weeks to a language program in Guanajuato this summer, aimed at young teens. Beautiful small town. Safe. The trip was cancelled by the company. Apparently, parents called and said they weren't sending their children.. . . .


That`s really a shame, because Guanajuato is such a great place to go, and Americans can feel very comfortable there. Escuela Mexicana has a great program there, with homestay options, although I don`t know if you`d want to send your daughter alone (just as you might not want to send her to any city alone).

Yes, the language program's classes were at Escuela Mexicana. And yes, it stinks that the trip(s) were cancelled, Oaxaca would have been our 2d option. We do want a more chaperoned program for her so, simply sending her through the school isn't an option. The program we wanted was home stay.

We are now looking at Spain, she traveled to Costa Rica last year, which also has a number of language schools.

It is very frustrating that violence in other parts of Mexico, directed at and involving mostly those in the drug trade, can affect the travel decisions of so many, mostly Americans. Because other parents said "no Mexico, regardless of where in Mexico" those willing to go now cannot do so.

Check out this story of gunmen taking over the Holiday Inn in Monterey.

I guess Monterey is now definitely in the "no go zone."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/latinamerica/la-fg-mexico-monterrey-20100422,0,7968807.story

no, tourism in mexico is actually expected to increase because of the strong dollar, and the wealth of fantastic beach resorts, and beautiful colonial cities.stay away from the trouble spots, and you will be just fine. if you still feel a little concerned, an escorted tour might be advised. however you save money by going on your own. just stay out of isolated areas, mexican colonial cities such as guanajuato san miguel allende, and many others including guadalajara are just fine, along with the beach resorts. however i would avoid acapulco at this time. ps.. flyer 16..just don't send your daughter by herself to aruba...just kidding

I think the tourism drop last year, compared to the previous one .. was 45%. It doesn't take much to celebrate an increase this year ... over last. Every tourism source I've read reports from this year suggest not much of an increase from last year, because of the increase in levels of violence in areas spread about the country. One cruise line dropped Zihuatanejo and Acapulco from their weekly itineraries. The US$ hasn't risen sharply against the Peso in some time now. The rates have been about constant for the past 4 or 5 years. Airfares to Mexico from much of elsewhere in North America have skyrocketed, by as much as double in some markets. Mexico's not as inexpensive to visit today as it was in recent years and that'll keep casual visitors away (together with the fear of being impacted by violence).

I don't have any safety-related qualms about going to Mexico. The resort areas in Cancun and Cabo are safer than most US inner cities (that's not saying much though).

The primary factor keeping people away is the cost, and travel is an optional expense during tough economic times. Unemployment is still at 10%, and airfares are relatively high to Mexican resorts compared with a few years ago. There is also hurricane season coming up...

We are going back to Cabo in August and Cancun in December courtesy of my in-laws and their timeshares. :)

Ok, what is a really big issue in Mexico is Juarez and Tijuana. Believe me I have been there and yes there are ugly and I didn't saw anything bad, but still. Other cities are so different. Mexico City is so big that many parts are safe. Also Cancun, Acapulco, Cabo, etc... are mostly safe and offer a great security program for foreign visitor.s

I used to teach at a college that had an exchange program in San Jose, Costa Rica for students of Spanish.

During the late 1980s, the program had a terrible time recruiting. Evidently, the students' parents took out maps, saw that Costa Rica is just south of Nicaragua, and said, "No way."

The Spanish professors tried to tell the parents that Costa Rica was safe, peaceful, and relatively prosperous, but no such luck. It was years before they were able to attract the number of students that the program was designed for.

What's really safe? A lot more than we think. What's really dangerous? A lot less than we think.