Midwest Airlines Midwest Miles (Pre-Alignment) - MKE December traffic up 33.9%

Stats at MKE for November 2009 have been posted.

Total MKE traffic
728,067, an increase of 33.9% from 2008 (543,679)

Change in passengers from 2008
AirTran
+103,235 (+107% over last year)
Southwest
+62,934 (new service)
Midwest/Frontier
+31,728 (+14.2% over last year)
All other carriers
-13,509 (-6.0% over last year)

Market Share
35.1% Midwest/Frontier
27.2% AirTran
15.7% Delta/Northwest
8.6% Southwest
3.8% Continental
3.7% USAirways
2.7% United
2.6% American
0.3% Air Canada
0.1% Great Lakes

Simple load factor (average seats per flight divided by average passengers per flight)

Midwest/Frontier
72.4% 319/E190/E170
70.4% CRJ
69.2% ER3

AirTran
70.3% 737/717
73.3% CRJ (STL and PIT)

Southwest
63.3% 737

Loads only say so much, since we don't know fare levels and traffic composition. But it does give us an idea of how well they put butts into seats. So far the large growth in capacity is being matched by large growth reasonably comparable. These gross load factors are below average, but not laughably empty as a whole.

For the year, MKE traffic was off a slim 0.1%, just over 10,000 passengers. Through August, MKE traffic was off around 12%, nearly 600,000 passengers year over year. So the final months of 2009 have been strong to say the least.

it really looks like delta threw in the towel in MKE, shame really. They could've put some pressure on Airtran and Southwest. At least we know how they'll handle it in other similarly sized markets.

A couple of thoughts I didn't have time to post last night...

(1) Unlike November, the "other airlines" (not Midwest, AirTran, or Southwest) saw a net loss in traffic year over year of some 435 people per day.

(2) I'm not surprised that Delta/Northwest isn't pressing harder in Milwaukee based on two things. First, Milwaukee today is a very tough place to make money even for airlines with the lowest costs. Second, the FF partnership with Midwest means that Delta-loyal customers have plenty of options at Milwaukee on YX flights.

(3) The CRJ loads for AirTran of 73.3% are good, but it's important to remember that half the CRJ flights were a one-for-one replacement of 717s. And the switch was made pretty late in the game (the December Skyguide still shows mainline AirTran) so more than a few CRJ flights were sold out from day one since the 717 was already booked to 50 or more, especially around the holidays. Still not a bad start in terms of loads.

(4) The softer Southwest loads are not likely to make them happy, and may explain why they continue to pummel the market with radio and TV ads. Perhaps this isn't out of the ordinary for new markets, but we're not even into the dead of winter yet with these numbers.

(5) At well over 1,000 more passengers per day than last year's combined totals, the Midwest/Frontier numbers reflect both added flights and increased loads. And holding on to a 35% market share even with Southwest in the market is not bad.

(6) In addition to getting a boost from upcoming CRJ adds, AirTran will probably get a lift in their traffic based on the picking up a lot of the annual charter work to beach markets...flights which in the past have primarily been operated by airlines like Ryan, USA300, Trans Meridian, Sun Country, ATA and others. IMHO this was a smart move for AirTran, because (a) they can do this flying with their existing infrastructure at MKE (b) it gets their name out there more in the leisure market than it already is, (c) the aircraft used for the charter work, which is not an 16-hour/seven days a week flying job, can be used for spares when they're sitting idle in Milwaukee. More beneficial than having aircraft sit with scheduled downtime in, say, Memphis.

Thanks as usual for the analysis, knope.

It's nice to see MKE continue to post these great year-over-year traffic figures. As air travel continues to rebound, I suspect that the airport will continue to see robust traffic throughout 2010.

Despite all of the competition, it was nice to see Midwest/Frontier increase its market share from November. They got a late start restoring some of the capacity to the leisure markets, so hopefully as spring rolls around loads will pick-up nicely.

I wonder how happy Southwest is with these results so far. Loads only improved marginally from November, which isn't that great. MCI and BWI have to be flying pretty empty.

Both YX/F9 and FL should be fairly pleased with the load factors, even though the fares are surely depressed.

Of course loads only give us half the picture, but it's clear that the traffic is converging. FL is clearly a close second in MKE, and the gap appears to be narrowing month-to month. Knope, you may have more historical data, but it appears that this is the closest a #2 carrier has gotten to YX in quite a few years. Although I'm sure there are a few markets (especially LGA) where FL is not doing well, but that's surely offset by the west coast flying (that typically have loads in the 90s). I guess we'll learn more eventually when the T-100 numbers come out.

I think that loads are becoming more important because of the ancillary revenue, especially bag fees. A significant number of bags are checked on each flight, and simply putting butts in seats can lead to more fees being paid. Bag fees are the biggest component, but there is also overweight bag fees, upgrade fees, seat assignment fees, exit row fees, WiFi, booze, etc.

It's kind of like the cruise lines...they charge very competitive fares so that they can get as many passengers on board as possible....The real money is made once they're on the ship. It's not exactly the same on an airline, but it's becoming a somewhat similar concept.

Thanks as usual for the analysis, knope.

It's nice to see MKE continue to post these great year-over-year traffic figures. As air travel continues to rebound, I suspect that the airport will continue to see robust traffic throughout 2010.

Despite all of the competition, it was nice to see Midwest/Frontier increase its market share from November. They got a late start restoring some of the capacity to the leisure markets, so hopefully as spring rolls around loads will pick-up nicely.

I wonder how happy Southwest is with these results so far. Loads only improved marginally from November, which isn't that great. MCI and BWI have to be flying pretty empty.

I wonder if Southwest will drop those two routes and focus more on additional leisure destinations from Milwaukee.

(2) I'm not surprised that Delta/Northwest isn't pressing harder in Milwaukee based on two things. First, Milwaukee today is a very tough place to make money even for airlines with the lowest costs. Second, the FF partnership with Midwest means that Delta-loyal customers have plenty of options at Milwaukee on YX flights..

This is it. I am one of these. The codeshare is great for using non-stop service instead of connecting through DTW or MSP.

I wonder if Southwest will drop those two routes and focus more on additional leisure destinations from Milwaukee.

That's not really Southwest's style, so I would expect those routes to stick around for awhile. It's only the second month of service and loads should improve this spring and summer.

One other point about Southwest: they have traditionally posted profits with relatively low load factors. This is further evidence that lower loads do not necessarily equate to big losses. However, given the fare environment in MKE these days Southwest will probably need to do a better job filling seats in order to turn a profit.

That's not really Southwest's style, so I would expect those routes to stick around for awhile. It's only the second month of service and loads should improve this spring and summer.

One other point about Southwest: they have traditionally posted profits with relatively low load factors. This is further evidence that lower loads do not necessarily equate to big losses. However, given the fare environment in MKE these days Southwest will probably need to do a better job filling seats in order to turn a profit.

Though WN has the reputation of having low fares, in reality, that is not always the case. The free checked bags can be worth $15-$60 per leg, but only if a passenger is checking bags. The no-charge policy for change/cancellation can be a savings, if one has plans subject to possible change. Other than these couple of benefits, a lot of Southwest's rep is hype.

So, in a market like MKE, where the fares from other carriers are extremely competitive, and with increased nonstop availability, Southwest may not be as strong a draw, as in other markets.

This is it. I am one of these. The codeshare is great for using non-stop service instead of connecting through DTW or MSP.

Just to correct your comment...This doesnt have to do with the Midwest/Delta codeshare, it is simply that you are allowed to enter your Delta Skymiles number on any itinerary that you book on a Midwest flight.

You can use your Skymiles account on any route that Midwest flies...it doesnt have anything to do with the codeshare.

I have stated this before, but I fly to Detroit enough to have status on Delta and actually used 2 segments on Midwest late last year to maintain my Silver Medallion status on Delta.

blucys. Of course you are right. I got lazy with the terminology.