Qantas Frequent Flyer - 5th A380 route?

Now that the 4th A380 route has been announced (MEL-SIN-LHR, which many people expected), what do people think will be the next one?

With the 388 added to QF9/10, they’ve maxed out the flights between the cities they’ve been focusing on (SYD, MEL, LAX, SIN and LHR). The next route would have to add another city. The other current options seem to be too low yield for a 388 or don’t have a 4 class service. So what do people think? JFK, SFO, AKL, BNE, BKK, HKG, JNB, somewhere else?

My money is on HKG and SYD/MEL but with connections to LHR. I think HKG of all the destinations you've listed would have the most demand for First moving forward.

QF wont be putting the A380 in its present state on routes without First. The A380 in its present configuration is heavily reliant on the premium classes, so either Qantas will reconfigure the A380 with no First class or keep the A380 on routes that today have First.

I believe Qantas will keep the A380 on its flagship routes to LAX and LHR. Perhaps when Qantas has enough frames the JFK tag will be added on. But in the meantime, it would be my guess that the current four routes will have their flights slowly brought to daily then Qantas will deploy the A380 on the other two London flights (MEL-HKG-LHR and SYD-BKK-LHR) currently operated by a 747. However, I think this will be not until the two SIN flights are brought to daily.

I don't have the post on hand but someone analysed how many aircraft Qantas' four daily to LHR and three daily SYD/MEL non-stop to LAX would utilise. After accounting for all these routes daily, there wasn't much/if any spare capacity for other routes.

Adding a new A380 city has a big infrastructure cost, everything from catering trucks to mechanics. The jetways, etc. are the least of the problems. Much as SFO would dearly love to get some A380 flights (after having spent hundreds of millions to accomodate A380 service at SFO), there seems little chance of that (maybe LH). I would be very surprised if QF adds a new city in the next 3 years except for the HKG and maybe BKK routings to LHR. Personally I think HKG would be a very successful route for QF using A380, however LHR-HKG has a lot of competition (6 different carriers now?).

If QF's A380 comes to HKG, it'll consume a lot of CX's traffic.

I think QF will cut the MEL-HKG-LHR service to just MEL-HKG

The A380 will be used on the SYD-HKG overnight route and extend it to SYD-HKG-LHR.

QF will take alot of traffic not just from CX but also virgin and BA.

- New CX seats in both Y and J are ridiculously uncomfortable. QF wins.
- HongKongers will love to try the A380- HKG-LHR is one of the busiest long haul routes in the world
- QF has 4 classes. CX does not.
- Still earn CX asia miles points while flying QF

If QF's A380 comes to HKG, it'll consume a lot of CX's traffic.CX operates about 2500 seats per day to Australia (from memory, I haven't checked the current schedules). A380 adds 450 seats to that if a new flight, but we are suggesting it replaces a 744, in which case it is the same number of pax as the original 744 seat capacity. What it does do is skim the cream from the market, for all 4 classes! Otherwise in terms of consuming a lot of traffic, it is theoretically a few percent hit and no more; it will consume a lot of CX's yield if not traffic.

With the 388 added to QF9/10, they’ve maxed out the flights between the cities they’ve been focusing on (SYD, MEL, LAX, SIN and LHR). The next route would have to add another city.

Why? Can't they add additional A380s to SYD-SIN-LHR (to take it to daily flights) and then make SYD-LAX and MEL-LAX daily?

Syd-sin-fra

?

Rather than adding cities, AFAIK SYD/LAX is going to be a daily A380

Syd-sin-fra

? ROFLMAO!

Funniest thing I have read all day!

Dave

Why? Can't they add additional A380s to SYD-SIN-LHR (to take it to daily flights) and then make SYD-LAX and MEL-LAX daily?

Rather than adding cities, AFAIK SYD/LAX is going to be a daily A380
Of course that is what they are going to do. It also isn’t the question.
Making QF9/10, 11/12, 31/32 and 93/94 A380 daily is not adding a new route. It is adding frequency.

Qantas needs 10 388s to make the current 4 routes daily. They have ordered 20. Clearly QF A380s will be going elsewhere then just between SYD and MEL to LAX and SIN/LHR.


VH-OQF should have arrived by now. Assuming no other delays at Airbus or other deferals, Qantas will have the 10th within 12 months. By November, Qantas would be announcing the next route the A380 will be deployed on (assuming they wait until the 4 current routes are daily first).

Making QF9/10, 11/12, 31/32 and 93/94 A380 daily is not adding a new route. It is adding frequency.


Gotcha.

Maybe increasing capacity on the SYD-LAX route (depending on what happens with UA/VA/DL competition) by making QF107/108 an A380 (at least as far as LAX). My other suspician is SYD-BKK-LHR

My other suspician is SYD-BKK-LHR

That extra capacity may then make BA re-think BKK-SYD and just codeshare on QF.

HKG definitely, but they will definitely turn current services into Daily services. I don't think a QF A380 will going to AKL anytime soon.

That extra capacity may then make BA re-think BKK-SYD and just codeshare on QF.
Is BA using a 777 or a 747 on that route (the timetable I'm looking at says both BA SIN and BKK flights are 744, but the last time I was at SYD, I saw a BA 777 and a 747 having arrived that morning as BA9 and BA15)?

Depending on the config, QF1/2 has 307-412 pax. The 388 max of 450 isn't that much higher. It's an increase of 38-143 seats. If BA were to cancel at least the BKK-SYD leg of BA9/10, then it would be a net loss of seats on the route (BA 777 220-280 pax, 747 291-337 pax).

Then again, with BA losing more money then QF, it would be better for them to can BA9/10 and shift all their LHR-BKK-SYD traffic over to BA7311/7312.

HKG definitely, but they will definitely turn current services into Daily services. I don't think a QF A380 will going to AKL anytime soon.Not even as QF25? :D

Would QF consider a new route to LHR via the middle east and compete directly with EK?

Not even as QF25? :D

Would QF consider a new route to LHR via the middle east and compete directly with EK?

QF have said they'll be flying to Abu Dhabi at some point (I think a timeframe was given, can't remember how long though).

Just speculating here....

How about:

QF11/12 and QF107/108 become A380's, SYD-LAX (and return).
QF25/26 goes A330, AKL-LAX-JFK (and return).

This would then give them the smaller aircraft on the LAX-JFK-LAX sector (with the reduced loadings), as well as allowing them to bump up the seats on the SYD-LAX sectors. AKL-LAX doesn't really need the F cabin, nor does LAX-JFK, where the alternate (AA F) is about the same as QF J.

Just a thought.

Dave

Not even as QF25? :D

Would QF consider a new route to LHR via the middle east and compete directly with EK?

I remember when QANTAS brought the A380 to Auckland, they said that they had no plans to bring it here on a regular basis, however with the RWC in 2011 maybe some flights will get it on a temp basis such as QF25

QF have said they'll be flying to Abu Dhabi at some point (I think a timeframe was given, can't remember how long though).

I think QF will stick to codesharing with Etihad. QF has no aircraft that can fly the route direct. Etihad's product is also better than QF.

I think QF will stick to codesharing with Etihad. QF has no aircraft that can fly the route direct. Etihad's product is also better than QF.

Here's the article:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/etihad-eyes-closer-links-with-qantas-20090329-9fjc.html

Specifically:
"They have made it clear that they intend to operate into Abu Dhabi in 2010, so we'll look for ways in which we can feed each other."

I think QF will have two A380 configurations with the second dropping F for an all economy lower deck and PE being increased to take over the mini J cabin on the rear of the upper deck.
With this configuration the older 747 with J, PE (some) and Y will be retired.
Therefore in my highly speculative plan FRA, BKK (dropping F) BNE-LAX will be the new A380 routes afte all current ones have gone daily.

IMHO, I don't think they'll introduce any new routes any time soon. They'll just work on improving the reliability and frequency of the current routes.

I'm guessing they'll eventually have 2 fleets of A380s, one with F, one without. To me, the A380 has always been reducing flight frequencies, rather than introducing new routes.

If they do have new routes, they may look to consolidate the SYD/MEL-HKG-LHR schedule...

I think QF will stick to codesharing with Etihad. QF has no aircraft that can fly the route direct.Of course they do. SYD-AUH is the same as SYD-LAX.