Southwest Rapid Rewards - PHX to OAK or SFO?

Hi everyone,

Newbie here so I hope you don't mind the questions. I'm moving from San Francisco to Phoenix in January and will be making the trip back up to SF every week for at least several months, possibly more. I've decided I'm going to go with SWA for everything just because the miles are too low to qualify for much of anything on any other airline?

I have flexibility to either come up Monday - Thursday or Tuesday - Friday. The goal would be to get into the office in downtown SF by as close to 9am as possible (9:30 is ok if it works out that way). Until March when the times change, seems doable with flights leaving PHX at 7am and arriving in both SFO and OAK at 8:10am. Any suggestions on SFO vs OAK? The former is a little easier via BART, but also seems more likely to get delayed? Also, would I be much better off doing the Tuesday trip, even if it means a late night arrival back home on Friday (last flight from both SFO and OAK are same time, get into PHX around 10:30pm).

Thanks for the help -- any tips you can provide will really help me out.

Hi everyone,

Newbie here so I hope you don't mind the questions. I'm moving from San Francisco to Phoenix in January and will be making the trip back up to SF every week for at least several months, possibly more. I've decided I'm going to go with SWA for everything just because the miles are too low to qualify for much of anything on any other airline?

I have flexibility to either come up Monday - Thursday or Tuesday - Friday. The goal would be to get into the office in downtown SF by as close to 9am as possible (9:30 is ok if it works out that way). Until March when the times change, seems doable with flights leaving PHX at 7am and arriving in both SFO and OAK at 8:10am. Any suggestions on SFO vs OAK? The former is a little easier via BART, but also seems more likely to get delayed? Also, would I be much better off doing the Tuesday trip, even if it means a late night arrival back home on Friday (last flight from both SFO and OAK are same time, get into PHX around 10:30pm).

Thanks for the help -- any tips you can provide will really help me out.

Check the transit times at bart.gov and add 25 minutes and $3 for the bus at OAK. The bus runs at 10- to 20-minute intervals and takes 10 to 15 minutes. Only rarely does its arrival line up correctly with your outbound train.

SFO will have delays, and perhaps someone with access to archives can compute your odds. The first flight of the day is much less likely to suffer a delay than later flights.

M-Th will have lower fares than T-F. Friday afternoon flights will also have more delays.

The goal would be to get into the office in downtown SF by as close to 9am as possible (9:30 is ok if it works out that way). Until March when the times change, seems doable with flights leaving PHX at 7am and arriving in both SFO and OAK at 8:10am. Any suggestions on SFO vs OAK? The former is a little easier via BART, but also seems more likely to get delayed? Also, would I be much better off doing the Tuesday trip, even if it means a late night arrival back home on Friday (last flight from both SFO and OAK are same time, get into PHX around 10:30pm).

Thanks for the help -- any tips you can provide will really help me out.

Based upon the parameters that you mention, I'd strongly suggest that you use OAK over SFO. While the other poster's comment about morning "originator" flights is generally correct with respect to PHX (or any other departure point), it doesn't consider the weather at the destination, and in SFO's case, the operational idiosnycracies of that airport.

Although SFO has two sets of parallel runways (to OAK's single main runway that air carriers use), there are constraints on their use. SFO uses one set of parallels (28L and 28R) for arrivals, and another (01L and 01R) for departures. The problem with SFO is that the runway centerlines of each parallel are only 750' apart. While it's no factor in great weather, or for departures off 01L/01R, it presents a bottleneck for arrivals on 28L/R when the weather gets even a little cloudy. The runway centerlines need to be 2,500' or 4,300' feet apart for parallel ILS or simultaneous parallel ILS approaches, and that 750' separation on 28L/28R just doesn't cut it.

Normally, SFO has an airport acceptance rate of 60 per hour, but when those cloud ceilings and reduced visibilities roll-in (often when not forecasted to), they drop to rate of 27-32, which means airborne holding for some of those now excess flights in the air, and an ATC groundstop and/or ground delay program that will delay SFO-bound flights at their various departure points. The "trigger" for all this is anything below about a 2,100' cloud ceiling and 5 miles visibility, and that same weather at OAK doesn't affect them in the least. Those triggering cloud ceilings and visibilities are quite common during the early mornings and evenings, especially during this time of year.

Here's what the typical ATC message we get for morning flights destined to SFO looks like:

ATCSCC ADVZY 024 SFO/ZOA 11/06/2009 CDM GROUND DELAY PROGRAM
MESSAGE:
CTL ELEMENT: SFO
ELEMENT TYPE: APT
ADL TIME: 1400Z
DELAY ASSIGNMENT MODE: DAS
ARRIVALS ESTIMATED FOR: 06/1700Z - 06/2259Z
CUMULATIVE PROGRAM PERIOD: 06/1700Z - 06/2259Z
PROGRAM RATE: 30/30/30/30/36/45
FLT INCL: ALL CONTIGUOUS US DEP
DEP SCOPE: 1200
ADDITIONAL DEP FACILITIES INCLUDED:
CANADIAN DEP ARPTS INCLUDED: CYEG CYVR CYYC
DELAY ASSIGNMENT TABLE APPLIES TO: ZOA
MAXIMUM DELAY: 121
AVERAGE DELAY: 70
IMPACTING CONDITION: WEATHER / LOW CEILINGS
COMMENTS: ARR- 28R DEP- 01L/R

The key things to note here are that they plan to be at a 30 rate most of the day, and that average delays are 70 minutes. Note that they're landing on 28R (only), and not using 28L.

The bottomline here is that the first PHX-SFO flight could easily be 60-90 minutes late while that first PHX-OAK (or PHX-SJC) flight would probably be on-time. The situation could also affect your late night SFO-PHX flight, since a delay inbound to SFO usually translates to a delay outbound. The OAK-PHX and SJC-PHX flights would be more likely to be on-time.

All of the above weather issues consider just the "routine" cloud/ceiling issues at SFO, and should the weather be really foggy (like near landing minimums), then one could see some delays at SJC/OAK as well, but not to the same extent of those for SFO.

Good luck, and thanks for flying with us.

I'm up there about twice a month or so. I prefer SFO to OAK, believe it or not. Delays happen, but you can always reroute yourself to OAK or SJC. You're just as likely to get delayed at the gate on a morning inbound to SFO since the delays there are based on their weather. Outbound you will get affected on anything after the first flights out.

My reason for liking SFO has to do with the rental cars: I find the rental car setup there to be much better than OAK. At OAK, I've sat around on the busses waiting for the driver to finish their flirt/BSing sessions with the workers before they take you to the terminal. I find the train to be much more efficient and reliable than the busses.

I've never taken BART to SFO, but I did take it from Ashby/Berkeley to OAK before. It was super easy, but I wouldn't want to wait for a bus at the Coliseum station. That station (outside the fence) scares the living heck out of me.

OPNLguy: Thanks for the info. I figured that the flight delays into SFO would be more common. Although it's a little more of a pain to deal with AirBART, I'm thinking that I need to keep in mind my primary goal, which is to get to the office as close to 9 as possible. With OAK, at least the flight will be more likely to be on time, even if it's going to take me 15 extra minutes to get to the city. On the way back to PHX, my choices are either a 4:30 or a 7:30pm flight - with the lost hour it takes 3 hours to get home. I'm almost thinking I'll schedule my return out of SFO for the 4:30, and if it's marked as delayed, that will just give me more time in the office. Otherwise, I get home early. Win, win. :-)

tusphotog: Sounds like everyone has a different opinion! It's worth noting that I'll never be doing rental cars, so I should probably not give SFO the +1 for that.


Does anyone have any more opinions on the choice of M-Th vs Tu-Fri? I realize that Friday afternoon/evening may involve tourists, but I would think that Monday morning is pretty bad? (And I won't qualify for A-List until about the middle of the year.)

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tusphotog: Sounds like everyone has a different opinion! It's worth noting that I'll never be doing rental cars, so I should probably not give SFO the +1 for that.

Does anyone have any more opinions on the choice of M-Th vs Tu-Fri? I realize that Friday afternoon/evening may involve tourists, but I would think that Monday morning is pretty bad? (And I won't qualify for A-List until about the middle of the year.)

Gotcha. If you're not doing rental cars, OAK is certainly the better option.

It's tough to say about M-Th or Tu-Fri. My preference is to avoid Friday, since fares are a bit more expensive. I'm not sure there is a huge "commute run" on Mondays between Phoenix and the Bay Area. It's not like the intra-CA flights which are usually stuffed early Monday morning. I've done a number of Bay Area-Arizona flights on Fridays and they're not as full as some of the Las Vegas flights (i.e. the hooker express BUR-LAS). This past summer, PHX-Bay Area flights were fairly empty, but Bay Area-PHX were almost always full. It didn't seem to matter what day of the week I flew either.

One tip about PHX: I prefer the security at the D gates. The lines there seem to be a bit shorter than the C gates in the morning. There are kiosks upstairs by both the C and D checkpoints so you won't need to wait around downstairs to check in, unless you do bags. PHX is a great airport, too.

With all due respect, PHX is not a "great" airport. PHX is a good airport, but it has a few flaws -- like 3 unconnected terminals, expensive short-term parking, and so forth. If they connect all three terminals behind security and solve the parking problem, PHX could be a great airport.

I deal with both these airports quite frequently. On balance I'd recommend SFO. Yes, OAK is more reliable in the winter because of landing challenges at SFO. But if you don't get in too much hot water over being late once in a while, and you can re-route to OAK if the plane is showing "Delayed" in Phoenix, stick with SFO. BART from SFO is MUCH more reliable than dealing with the Airport to BART shuttle at OAK. Sometimes there's no bus, the drivers take very liberal breaks, and the route they choose to get from BART to OAK is not direct and adds to the pain. Also, you'll get a seat from SFO to downtown SF - at the hour you're traveling in the morning you won't get a seat at the Coliseum station to SF. Good luck!

With all due respect, PHX is not a "great" airport. PHX is a good airport, but it has a few flaws -- like 3 unconnected terminals, expensive short-term parking, and so forth. If they connect all three terminals behind security and solve the parking problem, PHX could be a great airport.

Meh, guess I'm easily impressed. But really, how many people go from T4 to T3 or even T2? There's no need to connect the terminals. They'll get linked up with that train they're putting in, although that'll be 2020 and it'll be outside security.

Parking isn't any more expensive than other large airports like LAX, SFO (ever park there for a day in the "long term" lot, which, I might add is in a different city than the airport), PDX etc. $25/day for the garage isn't bad...I think SFO was in the anti-car range of $35/day and PDX is $24/day.

T2 is a dump, but I only seem to arrive on AS over there. I haven't been through T3 in at least 10 years, so I can't comment on that place. I like T4, especially the D gates, if they aren't super crowded.

If all things are equal, always choose OAK. The delays may not be frequent at SFO, but you can bet they will happen when you have the least amount of time to deal with them. (Murphy's Law)

The OAK BART connection bus is horrid, the OAK terminal a bit less so since new food vendors were added. SFO is definitely a better airport and has airport clubs (AS in particular) which may prove useful given the amount of time you'll be spending at the airport. As for delays, they tend to be worse later in the day (and also worse for departures), so I think you would be okay flying in early Monday morning.

If your end destination is SF, I would go with SFO every time if you are taking public transit. And also a taxi option in a pinch if you are running late (15 min and $35) v. horrendous fare to OAK.

But the real question is: since you will be doing this for a while, why not try both and see which you like better?

i do the flight from PHX to the OAK or SFO every two weeks or so. I prefer SFO, but have done both even when I'm in Berkeley and not in the city.

Leaving the bay, I almost always select SFO even though I've been delayed at SFO more often and the flights tend to be more full with a very slow security process. I like that with SFO since it avoids any bridge issues. I like to guarentee of knowing when I'll arrive and as others have noted AirBART is unpredictable. While you have to take the terminal train to the bart station in sfo, I haven't had to wait for the terminal train for more than 5 minutes.

When arriving to SFO, catching the BART can be a bit of a pain. There seems to be a long gap between trains and even once a train arrives, you seem to just sit at the station for a while before you acutally depart.

Dings to both locations are pretty common. I'll book a few trips and then roll the TTF credits along as the DINGs appear about a month before the next set of flights. While both SFO and OAK are co-terminals and you can switch, I prefer to have a booked seat on both and then pick my desination based on the weather and delays. I always say better to have a seat then try to fight to be first in line to rebook.

Have fun with the commute.

I'll book a few trips and then roll the TTF credits along as the DINGs appear about a month before the next set of flights. While both SFO and OAK are co-terminals and you can switch, I prefer to have a booked seat on both and then pick my desination based on the weather and delays. I always say better to have a seat then try to fight to be first in line to rebook.

Have fun with the commute.

Excellent idea! I never thought to just book both and then decide the morning of, with a guaranteed seat on both. You never get a hard time for this?

The bottomline here is that the first PHX-SFO flight could easily be 60-90 minutes late while that first PHX-OAK (or PHX-SJC) flight would probably be on-time. The situation could also affect your late night SFO-PHX flight, since a delay inbound to SFO usually translates to a delay outbound. The OAK-PHX and SJC-PHX flights would be more likely to be on-time.


This is a very useful post but I thought I would point out that the first flight of the day is actually the least likely to be affected, since the delays tend to cascade and build as the day goes on.

This is a very useful post but I thought I would point out that the first flight of the day is actually the least likely to be affected, since the delays tend to cascade and build as the day goes on.

As I mentioned in my response to the OP, that's generally a true statement---obviously an aircraft that's originating from XYZ doesn't have the "opportunity" to be late coming out of XYZ because of being late going into XYZ. However, as I also said to the OP, that "conventional wisdom" doesn't consider the weather at a potential destination, and certainly doesn't consider what happens at SFO when a seemingly minor ceiling/visibility issue crops up. Since the OP's question mentioned a specific concern about being able to get into SFO on-time and thus to work on-time, I answered as I did.

I don't know how critical his continued employment is with respect to getting to work late more than X-number of times, but given that flights to OAK (and SJC) don't suffer the same frequency/duration of delays that SFO does, I thought he needed the info (born of personal experience after dispatching aircraft in there for 25+ years).

Mostly simply stated, if one is going into SFO before noon, or after 6pm, the chances are higher that you'll see those delays moreso than the noon-6pm timeframe... If job tardiness has potential repercussions (and only the OP can answer that one), the smart play is to avoid SFO on an early morning flight. Otherwise, one is shooting proverbial craps with the weather, and sometimes, Mother Nature doesn't play nicely with others..

Cheers...

IME (and you are free to differ) early morning flights into SFO are not delayed though often outbound will be slightly delayed as they stack up too many departures in the 7am-9am slot (maxed out over capacity even when conditions are ideal).

For inbound to SFO that depart in afternoon or evening, I often find flights delayed at origin - your plane is not even permitted to take off for 1-3 hours due to "ATC delays". But rare for early a.m. which is the time slot originally posted.

Excellent idea! I never thought to just book both and then decide the morning of, with a guaranteed seat on both. You never get a hard time for this?

I'm sure it works OK, but I never book 2 flights for the same date. That's unarguably a violation of the rule against speculative bookings.

I'm sure it works OK, but I never book 2 flights for the same date. That's unarguably a violation of the rule against speculative bookings.

+1 . Have I done this sort of thing from time to time? sure. But I think it is just plain unfair to regularly do it. Also, regularly booking speculative trips risks forcing WN to end no change fees.