I have about 100,000 frequent flyer points with USAirways. What will happen to these points if they should happen to go under? Will they be gone forever, or will they workout a deal to transfer then somewhere else?

I have about 100,000 frequent flyer points with USAirways. What will happen to these points if they should happen to go under? Will they be gone forever, or will they workout a deal to transfer then somewhere else?

They will be gone forever. Just a note, I'm a positive poster concerning U, my airline of choice.

Welcome to FT. This question has been asked REPEATEDLY. Please do a search. The short answer is: no one knows.

Will they be gone forever, or will they workout a deal to transfer then somewhere else?

Yes - one of those two things will happen. ;)

No one knows at this point. You may want to try and get tickets on another *A carrier - but as you'll see in several posts on here, no one knows if those will be honored.

Its, unfortunately totally up in the air at this point.

PS Welcome to Flyer Talk

You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so. No excuse for anybody to loose anything.

You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so. No excuse for anybody to loose anything.

Do you have some "new" information that the rest of us don't know about? :rolleyes:

I have about 100,000 frequent flyer points with USAirways. What will happen to these points if they should happen to go under? Will they be gone forever, or will they workout a deal to transfer then somewhere else?
USless airways is losing about 2 million dollars a day if not more. if they go under the taxpayers will save 2 million dollars a day. it is that simple.

USless airways is losing about 2 million dollars a day if not more. if they go under the taxpayers will save 2 million dollars a day. it is that simple.

This is simply wrong. US Airways generates significant taxes and thus far haven't cost the taxpayers anything. The only involvement the taxpayer has is with the ATSB and that doesn't cost anything now and may not ever.

This is simply wrong. US Airways generates significant taxes and thus far haven't cost the taxpayers anything. The only involvement the taxpayer has is with the ATSB and that doesn't cost anything now and may not ever.

I thought the government (or should I say us, taxpayers) would be on the hook for the loans backed by ATSB. I might be wrong as I have no insight on the details of such loans. If this is true, I wonder if US generates enough taxes to offset the losses it incurs on the taxpayers. If it does, wouldn't this operation generates positive cash flow for the government while providing thousands of jobs to keep them off the unemployment line? If this is the case, wouldn't it be a good idea for the government to continue this operation? Just wondering!

LAX

This is simply wrong. US Airways generates significant taxes and thus far haven't cost the taxpayers anything. The only involvement the taxpayer has is with the ATSB and that doesn't cost anything now and may not ever.
So,where is the money coming from? investors? investors are taxpayers.
When us air defaults, who will pay?
USless air is losing money, you do not pay taxes on losses, you pay taxes on profits and this airline is not going to generate any profits.

I thought the government (or should I say us, taxpayers) would be on the hook for the loans backed by ATSB. I might be wrong as I have no insight on the details of such loans. If this is true, I wonder if US generates enough taxes to offset the losses it incurs on the taxpayers. If it does, wouldn't this operation generates positive cash flow for the government while providing thousands of jobs to keep them off the unemployment line? If this is the case, wouldn't it be a good idea for the government to continue this operation? Just wondering!

LAX


The cash requirement exceeds the balance on the ATSB loans. IIRC, the loans are to be repaid prior to any secured creditors (sorta like the IRS jumping to the front of the line in relation to other debts). The way the whole thing is structured, it is improbable that the primary lenders, ATSB or the taxpayers will lose anything on this part of the deal.

The political reality of keeping people employed does work in the favor of US Airways. As jobs are being shifted to Red States, the current administration is much more likely to allow Airways to stay in business than if the jobs stayed in Penn.

My opinion is that it will be GECAS that eventually determines the fate of the company.

My gut feeling is that USAIR won't make it another 30 days!
If a company is asking workers to work for free during a holiday because they can't pay them, that implies a huge cash crunch.
#2 USAIR was banking on Christmas full flights, well cancelled flights means millions will be refunded or other airlines will ask to be paid for all those passengers pushed off on them.
# January and February or the slowest flying months of the year. They need full planes
#4 Southwest and Jetblue just slashed fares to Florida.

IS it not worth the risk for USAIR miles to be traded for United flights, and if USAIR does make it then for a fee they can be redeposited back to your account.

Don't count on anybody grabbing USAIR. They have no value. Continental already has a massive European bank of flights just 1.5 hours up the road in Newark.

You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so. No excuse for anybody to loose anything.

Hey- my first post. Sorry to be the 1,000th person to ask this, but is milesrus correct?? I have 60,000 Dividend Miles and want to use them on a Star Alliance RT flight to Tokyo or Hong Kong, but I'm not able to travel anytime in the next few months. Can I book a Star Alliance ticket using my 60K miles now, for, say, this Spring or Summer and everything will still be cool even if USAir goes under??!! I hope milesrus is correct!

Hey- my first post. Sorry to be the 1,000th person to ask this, but is milesrus correct?? I have 60,000 Dividend Miles and want to use them on a Star Alliance RT flight to Tokyo or Hong Kong, but I'm not able to travel anytime in the next few months. Can I book a Star Alliance ticket using my 60K miles now, for, say, this Spring or Summer and everything will still be cool even if USAir goes under??!! I hope milesrus is correct!

Short answer: Nobody knows what will happen.

Personally, I wouldn't bank on the ticket being any good. [b]BUT[b] if US goes under, the miles would be worthless anyway, so why not book an award ticket and hope for the best? Seems the expected value of a *A award is higher than that of a bank full o' miles! :D

How far in advance can you book a (Star Alliance) award ticket - is it 330 days? I want to use 100k+ for a biz class RT to Cairo or Delhi for departure late 12/05 and return early 1/06.

Due to my work schedule I can't take any long vaca until that time...

Thoughts?

Thanks from a first-time poster but avid reader... :)

Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing, unless that other carrier ceases operations. Get a ticket to Japan on that carrier you can always change the dates for a fee and if availability is OK.

How far in advance can you book a (Star Alliance) award ticket - is it 330 days?


This USED to be the standard. 331 days out, inventory began showing up. Now, in the last few months, LH has notified that it will release most available inventory to partner airlines not more than 90 days out. UA holds back heavy award destination availability for its own MP members,etc, etc.

These days, award ticketing is simply catch as catch can. There appear to be few hard and fast rules anymore.

And, one last time, NO ONE KNOWS what will happen to miles whether they are redeemed or not. It simply hasn't happened under this scenario before (unless we count Ansett Australia, but that's very different for a number of reasons.) So, wait and see with the rest of us.

Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing, unless that other carrier ceases operations. Get a ticket to Japan on that carrier you can always change the dates for a fee and if availability is OK.

There is no garantee that the other carrier will honor the ticket

USless air is losing money, you do not pay taxes on losses, you pay taxes on profits and this airline is not going to generate any profits.

US sure doesn't pay taxes on losses, but the pay checks they hand out generate income taxes for the government. Each ticket US sells also generate taxes. The supply US purchases also generate sale taxes. I am sure there are more, but I can't think of all of them off the top of my head now. The real question is whether those taxes generated would be sufficient to offset the heavy losses at US.

LAX

I have about 100,000 frequent flyer points with USAirways. What will happen to these points if they should happen to go under? Will they be gone forever, or will they workout a deal to transfer then somewhere else?

While noone can say with absolute certainty, the most liikely scenario is that the majority of people lose their miles/status. Some airline may purchase the rights to DM and cherry pick the high revenue flyers by offering mileage transfers and status comps. The low-fare bottom feeders will most likely get nothing.

So unless you flew in F to get all those miles, I would try to redeem for an award as soon as possible.

Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing, unless that other carrier ceases operations. Get a ticket to Japan on that carrier you can always change the dates for a fee and if availability is OK.

Even though the flights may be on another carrier and have the other carrier's flight numbers, the flights are still US tickets booked on US ticket stock. The other carrier is free to tell you to take a hike if US goes under.

Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing, unless that other carrier ceases operations. Get a ticket to Japan on that carrier you can always change the dates for a fee and if availability is OK.


The problem you would run into when you went to change the dates, the airline you would have to deal with would no longer be in business.

How far in advance can you book a (Star Alliance) award ticket - is it 330 days? I want to use 100k+ for a biz class RT to Cairo or Delhi for departure late 12/05 and return early 1/06.

Due to my work schedule I can't take any long vaca until that time...

Thoughts?

Thanks from a first-time poster but avid reader... :)

The booking windows for awards of partner airlines is affected by two things:

1. Has the partner carrier imposed any time limits on booking windows, as is the case with LH and its 90 day maximum booking window for awards using US miles..?

2. If not, then the other factor is how soon the partner airline releases or allows US to tap into its award seat inventory.

Although not a star alliance carrier, my experience booking an award on QF using US miles showed that you could book out 331 days (or something like that) on US flights.

However, at that time, QF's award seat inventory was not available for US agents to tap into until 300 days out (or about that). There was roughly a one month difference between the two booking windows--so you ended up with the shorter booking window.

..

You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so. No excuse for anybody to loose anything.

Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing, unless that other carrier ceases operations. Get a ticket to Japan on that carrier you can always change the dates for a fee and if availability is OK.


How can you post so much factually incorrect garbage?

United and every other partner gets paid by US when the flight is taken. If US is out of business, they fly you for free. IMHO, there are slim chances that airlines will honor tickets on space available basis to build loyalty and earn good will. Stating that you have no risk with parnter tickets after US liquidates is flat out false.

Each ticket US sells also generate taxes.Actually LAX, you raise a very interesting point, but not one that I assumed you meant to. When US goes belly up one should be able to request a refund from the US government for the taxes paid on an unused US ticket. :D

While noone can say with absolute certainty, the most liikely scenario is

Nobody can say what the most likely scenario is. But there are strong arguments supporting the idea that the miles will survive.

At first blush it is an easy assumption that nobody would want to assume the liability represented by "free trips". However these programs exist for a reason -- there is significant revenue associated with the programs. That revenue far exceeds the liability. If you could buy a $100MM revenue stream for $20MM in future expense would you do so? I think there are many parties who would answer "yes". The questions then become what are the real numbers? and what is the asking price? In a liquidation scenario there is a responsibility to sell the assets for the best price. DM is a net asset to US Airways (the same may not have been true for other cases such as Ansett) and this fact will not be missed in the unhappy event that the vultures swoop.

Does that mean that there are vocal buyers in the market right now? Not likely -- at this point in time anyone who would be interested is better served by talking down the idea. That way they get a better price for it. If they can set people's expectations low enough they can do all sorts of things like only honoring miles at X% or some other bogus thing.

Remember -- we're customers. We have the ultimate power in this relationship. Don't let the airlines set the agenda.

Remember -- we're customers. We have the ultimate power in this relationship. Don't let the airlines set the agenda.

I hear you Tom, and fully agree. But how do we as consumers exercise that power at this point in the game?

By not assuming that our miles are going to go "poof". Educate people who make that assumption whenever possible. There are two sides to the story -- don't just zero in on the liability, remember that there is considerable revenue too.

Especially educate parrots, err I mean "reporters". They're always looking for something negative but try anyway.

Note: I'm not saying that it can't happen -- it might. But there is a big difference between "might" and "will" and a whole lot of people are making the assumption that it is a foregone conclusion. That assumption does not serve our interests as customers.

I use to be a very frequent flier with Pan Am and TWA (anybody remember these old legends?) and I had tons of miles with them both. I was lucky enough to have Delta come and save my Pan Am points and American come and save my TWA points. I was very lucky, but then again those two airlines have made thousands of dollars off me as I am now a top-tier frequent flier with both American and Delta.

Times have definitely changed.

Will it happen again with US Airways? I can promise you the chances of another white knight coming to your rescue is very unlikely. If I was a frequent flier who had miles tied up with US I would be on the phone making a reservation immediately. The situation is getting worse and worse everyday. I'm a fan of US but I don't know how long they can go on like this.

By not assuming that our miles are going to go "poof". Educate people who make that assumption whenever possible. There are two sides to the story -- don't just zero in on the liability, remember that there is considerable revenue too.


I understand Tom, but isn't that little more than clicking our heels and saying "there's no place like home"?

Going by the words of our 40th president and my mom repsectively, my m.o. follows the "trust but verify" and "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" line of thinking.

Ever since US filed for bankruptcy the second time, there has been distinct dearth of hard-and-fast answers as to what we as DMers can do.

I use to be a very frequent flier with Pan Am and TWA (anybody remember these old legends?) and I had tons of miles with them both. I was lucky enough to have Delta come and save my Pan Am points and American come and save my TWA points. I was very lucky, but then again those two airlines have made thousands of dollars off me as I am now a top-tier frequent flier with both American and Delta.

Times have definitely changed.

Will it happen again with US Airways? I can promise you the chances of another white knight coming to your rescue is very unlikely. If I was a frequent flier who had miles tied up with US I would be on the phone making a reservation immediately. The situation is getting worse and worse everyday. I'm a fan of US but I don't know how long they can go on like this.

Yes times have changed.

One of the changes is a much more sophisticated understanding of loyalty programs. These programs were in their infancy when PanAm went down and a "white knight" approach probably does closely approximate the thinking there. Today's programs are very different and the economic underpinnings of the programs are 1) much better understood (by the airlines anyway), 2) much more fungible and 3) far less dependent on flying.

I would argue that perhaps the only thing AA was really after with TWA was the FF program. There certainly isn't much else left to show for it -- but they do seem to have captured the customer base.

I, personally, don't expect a white knight and I'd be apalled if one appeared. I'm looking for a rational business decision based on the fundamental economics. Throwing money away isn't rational so I don't expect it to happen.

Has the death spiral begun and the only hope is someone will be a White Knight? It may be too late to use your miles for flights and liquidation of our favorite airline near. The next few weeks will be telling and if any chaos, the final stake will be driven.

I understand Tom, but isn't that little more than clicking our heels and saying "there's no place like home"?

It worked for Dorothy!

It may be a case of rose-colored glasses but so far my track record is kicking the butt of the doomsayers. For 3+ years now we've been hearing of the imminent demise of US Airways and the vaporization of Dividend Miles. It hasn't happened. IMHO it isn't going to happen.

Going by the words of our 40th president and my mom repsectively, my m.o. follows the "trust but verify" and "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" line of thinking.

I agree completely. But that doesn't mean that we roll over and play dead or numbly accept ridiculous and unsupported assertions that are really just opinions.

Ever since US filed for bankruptcy the second time, there has been distinct dearth of hard-and-fast answers as to what we as DMers can do.

Act normally. Use miles to take trips or upgrade or buy magazines or whatever. It isn't a bank account -- if you've been hoarding miles you've been making a mistake anyway regardless of what airline you're doing that with.

Virtually all of the advice on "protecting" you miles is harmful. A lot of it costs real live actual dollars. It may be heresy but hey, they're just miles. Redeposit/rebooking/paper-ticket etc fees and taxes on the other hand are real money. The kind that you can never spend again.

In keeping with the previous few posts. In saving the DM program, I wouldn't be surpirsed to see a BK arrangement made where WN ends up owning most of US and they migrate DM in to the RR program. It makes the most sense as they are one of the few airlines in good enough financial position to do so. Other possibilities include CO or AA, but I don't believe their managements' would be so bold as to go out on that limb since they are in the midst of belt tightening.

Outside some BK aquisition arrangement I do not see the DM miles surviving.

How can you post so much factually incorrect garbage?

United and every other partner gets paid by US when the flight is taken. If US is out of business, they fly you for free. IMHO, there are slim chances that airlines will honor tickets on space available basis to build loyalty and earn good will. Stating that you have no risk with parnter tickets after US liquidates is flat out false.

Ok Mr Flyer know it all, you telling us you leave on a USAIR ticket to Dallas from Pittsburgh on United, while in Dallas USAIR ceases operating next day you arrive at DFW United is going to tell you sorry but we can't collect.

I would rather hold United tickets then assume somebody will take over my USAIR miles.

Only airline left in bankruptcy that I believe somebody would do that with is United. Why because of their massive Pacific routes that generate any profit for them. If United were to liquate American would buy mileage plus and the United routes. They would eliminate all competition from Chicago and gobble up coveted Pacific routes. In the future prior to me posting do I need you to approve my post for validity?

Ok Mr Flyer know it all, you telling us you leave on a USAIR ticket to Dallas from Pittsburgh on United, while in Dallas USAIR ceases operating next day you arrive at DFW United is going to tell you sorry but we can't collect.

That could very well be the case.

I would rather hold United tickets then assume somebody will take over my USAIR miles.


I agree, it is better to book on United so that they might honor the award ticket.

A ticket is a ticket. CPRich is quite right about when they get paid but IMHO they are not going to distinguish between award and non-award tickets. (CC monies are held somewhere until post flight too...) The law covering ceased operations doesn't mention it one way or the other -- just like it doesn't mention a distinction between paying cash or paying with a CC.

Just for kicks -- does anyone know if Midway (aren't they the most recent example covered by the law?) tickets were vetted for paper, electronic, cash, credit card & award status before being honored? My bet is that you showed a receipt, paid your $25 and flew stand-by. End of story so far as that goes.

Award tickets outside the 60 day window are another story -- there won't be any legal obligation to honor them (nor will there be an obligation to honor paid tix) so you're on shakier ground. But by then the dust should have settled and you'll know one way or the other. IMHO there will be good business reasons for someone to honor them but that's just my opinion.

Not that I expect we'll find out.

Ok Mr Flyer know it all, you telling us you leave on a USAIR ticket to Dallas from Pittsburgh on United, while in Dallas USAIR ceases operating next day you arrive at DFW United is going to tell you sorry but we can't collect.

I would rather hold United tickets then assume somebody will take over my USAIR miles.

Only airline left in bankruptcy that I believe somebody would do that with is United. Why because of their massive Pacific routes that generate any profit for them. If United were to liquate American would buy mileage plus and the United routes. They would eliminate all competition from Chicago and gobble up coveted Pacific routes. In the future prior to me posting do I need you to approve my post for vality?

Unless I misinterpreted CP Rich--he is saying the same thing that you are--that there is a danger if you hold US tickets, especially award tickets, since any partner airline of US that issues an award ticket bought with US miles doesn't actually see any money from US until the trip is taken.

So, under the assumption that a partner airline is not paid for an award ticket until the trip is actually taken, the partner airline would indeed fly you for "free" if it did honor the award ticket bought with US miles.

Now, my opinion is that I do not know for sure how that whole system of charges between airlines is handled. I don't know if I completely accept that award flights on a US partner are paid for by US when the flight is taken.

You certainly don't have that privilege when you fly-you must pay before you board the plane. In an oversimplified case, if Qantas and US had one passenger from each airline request an award ticket on the other's airline, it makes just as much sense that the two airlines would settle up on some periodic basis using offsetting debits and credits and ultimately one airline writes a check to the other for the difference of all the award tickets booked within a given time frame.

Maybe...

Only airline left in bankruptcy that I believe somebody would do that with is United. Why because of their massive Pacific routes that generate any profit for them. If United were to liquate American would buy mileage plus and the United routes. They would eliminate all competition from Chicago and gobble up coveted Pacific routes. In the future prior to me posting do I need you to approve my post for vality?

Sorry, but your posts are just not based in reality and actual facts. How do you know what American would do? Not only that, how do you know whether the Japanese government would allow another US airline to simply "buy" UA's NRT routes, especially the intra-Asia ones. For the last time: NOBODY KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF US GOES UNDER!

Sorry, but your posts are just not based in reality and actual facts. How do you know what American would do? Not only that, how do you know whether the Japanese government would allow another US airline to simply "buy" UA's NRT routes, especially the intra-Asia ones. For the last time: NOBODY KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF US GOES UNDER!

I would agree with your last sentence. As for facts the highly regulated Japanese airport authority, allows for two airlines to do this. Yes, they could let somebody else have those rights. This is similar to only two US airlines are allowed into London Heathrow. United bought Pan Am's rights and American bought TWA's rights. As for factual information. last time I checked Flyertalk is nothing more than a opinion based chat room for those who either travel or enjoy following this industry.

It worked for Dorothy!

It may be a case of rose-colored glasses but so far my track record is kicking the butt of the doomsayers. For 3+ years now we've been hearing of the imminent demise of US Airways and the vaporization of Dividend Miles. It hasn't happened. IMHO it isn't going to happen.

Say, you're not part of that Lollipop Guild are you? :D

The key words, however acronymed, are IMHO. ;) Your industry experience is admittedly more extensive than mine, so you may be seeing something I'm not. I just don't think US will make it this time unfortunately. :(


I agree completely. But that doesn't mean that we roll over and play dead or numbly accept ridiculous and unsupported assertions that are really just opinions.


True...which I why I came to the FT board thinking that I could at least find well-thought and informed opinions. Case in point:


Act normally. Use miles to take trips or upgrade or buy magazines or whatever. It isn't a bank account -- if you've been hoarding miles you've been making a mistake anyway regardless of what airline you're doing that with.

Virtually all of the advice on "protecting" you miles is harmful. A lot of it costs real live actual dollars. It may be heresy but hey, they're just miles. Redeposit/rebooking/paper-ticket etc fees and taxes on the other hand are real money. The kind that you can never spend again.
Sage advice, thank you. ^ Already planned a spring trip to Europe, and after consideration I think I'll be using up those mile on an LH ticket.

How do you know what American would do?

Because God and everyone with at least two connecting brain cells, knows that AA wants in on the Asian scene. It's only evident that UA's Asia rights are the one asset that AA will fight to the death for. UA's asia routes coupled with AA's transatlantic and south american network would cement their dominance.

While you are correct in mentioning the possibility of the Japanese govt deny another carrier the rights there is also the stronger possibility that they wont.

For the last time: NOBODY KNOWS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN IF US GOES UNDER!

Correct. However, that's mostly because US has very little in high-value assets. UA, on the other hand, has routes(Asia,LHR,IAD), faciliities(SFO,LAX,ORD, IAD), and aircraft. All of which can easily be pre-placed with different airlines based on their particular needs.

I agree with those who say nobody knows. As a practical matter, many people would like the Elite members of DM. They fly a lot, and make a nice incremental contribution to a new airline. They might even be able to sell the accounts as part of a liquidation. Whether or not it fails, this is still a big carrier, and somebody wants that business (or at least the bigger spenders).
I also agree that another airlline may actually buy a big chunk of the company. It's been too quiet, and for some reason, they keep running the joint, even though all signs lead to that being almost pointless.

In keeping with the previous few posts. In saving the DM program, I wouldn't be surpirsed to see a BK arrangement made where WN ends up owning most of US and they migrate DM in to the RR program. It makes the most sense as they are one of the few airlines in good enough financial position to do so. Other possibilities include CO or AA, but I don't believe their managements' would be so bold as to go out on that limb since they are in the midst of belt tightening.

Outside some BK aquisition arrangement I do not see the DM miles surviving.

I hate to tell you this but this is pure wishful thinking, nothing more and nothing less.

I can say this now: Time will shortly prove that this will never come to pass.

What makes you think that SW would want to assume any of the liabilities of US -- the very company that they are trying hard to kill?

SW does now want the various types of planes that US flies, it does not want the Dividend Miles liability -- had it wished to do so, it would have agreed to merge ATA's program in with their own --- and they have not, even though when the dust clears they will end up owning 27.5% of that airline, and they most certainly want to stay away from any of US Air's labor relations.

If United were to liquate American would buy mileage plus and the United routes. They would eliminate all competition from Chicago and gobble up coveted Pacific routes. In the future prior to me posting do I need you to approve my post for validity?

Kindly answer me this: If United were to liquidate, why on earth would AA need to purchase Mileage Plus as they would have a near 100% lock on overseas flights out of Chicago? :rolleyes:

No, AA would not need to eliminate competition from Chicago as a great deal of it would go poof with United's demise.

I won't comment on your last point --- yet. ;)

All of this is speculations, and we can all play the what if game until USAir folds or whatever happens. The bottom line is how much are you willing to gamble?

Would I trust that someone would come in and pick up my miles and say, please let us ticket you for free because you were so loyal to USAir when you could have flown us, no I personally would not trust that this will happen. Would I trust an award ticket printed for 300 days from now, probably not. I do believe that someone or a lot of places will come in and cherry pick the top fliers in the right cities, I would believe that someone or multiple airlines will come in and offer challenges that if you fly XXX with them then they'll let you keep your USAir miles you had, or something similar. And offers could be only to people with status on USAir, if you have miles but no status then who knows but you could be SOL. Everyone could be SOL. That's if USAir doesn't merge but no one looks good for that one yet. IMO only.

I just believe there'd be a lot of strings attached to anyone picking up USAir's tab or any airline's tab now a days. Personally, I'd probably try to use the miles as fast as I could if I had no status. And if you have 100,000 in your account and you haven't used any and you have been saving planning a trip (as I assume the OP did), then you are not chairman's, probably not even Gold and maybe not even Silver.

Do you think it's worth the gamble for a person who's been saving miles to take a trip to Asia? Sorry, not me, use your miles and have a great trip when you can take it. I hope USAir comes out OK, I hope there's a white knight out there or a pot of gold, but it doesn't look good. IMHO.

[QUOTE=NJUPINTHEAIR]Kindly answer me this: If United were to liquidate, why on earth would AA need to purchase Mileage Plus as they would have a near 100% lock on overseas flights out of Chicago? :rolleyes:

No, AA would not need to eliminate competition from Chicago as a great deal of it would go poof with United's demise.

This is a very good point you make, that I would agree with except(I am no Airline Marketing Guy) but why did American except all those TWA miles when they acquired TWA's St Louis Hub. Who else were they going to fly with. Why did Delta let all those Pan Am folks roll their miles over to their program if they had the routes. I would assume it is because if America was lucky enough to secure those routes the last thing they would want to do is give the United flyers the option of moving their business to Northwest/Continental or a foreign carrier. If it was my call I would roll only the Pacific flyers balances over.

With all this said I hope we are all wrong and USAIR survives. Many times we get wrapped up in our miles and forget that 37,000 families or probably 100,000 plus folks would be effected if they did not survive. I can't imagine people having to pull kids out of college, sell their homes etc.

I do enjoy reading all these posts as their are many ideas that make since and Flyertalk does have what appears to be some very highly intelligent folks. Happy New Year!

I have been very optimistic about the survival of USAIR up until that last week. Given that the company had to cancel several hundred flights, are still cleaning up the baggage fiasco, and asked for volunteers to work on New Years, my optimisim faded to the point that I just booked three first class tickets to South American in order to burn up some miles. If USAIR is still around in a month, I will burn my remaining miles.

When speaking to the USAIR representative, she indicated that people have been redeeming miles in hoards over the last few months.

I hope that USAIR survives, but I think that we can all learn a valuable lesson when in comes to saving miles.

Four pages later and we are right where we began. Actually right where we ended in the previous 15 threads on this topic. Try SEARCH and LIQUIDATION.

but here are a few things you can do to help

1) book all your future ff trips now on usairways partners, and hope they honor the tickets

2) if you have many miles, get a US Airways DM visa and a points.com account, and transfer them to a program which preserves most of the value, maybe Hawaiian Air or Hilton?

i have 7800 DM and the magazine selection stinks

Tom is correct in the DM customer base being an asset. BTW, didn't Air Canada sell off it's ff program, Aeroplan, some time ago? Was it to CIBC?

Valuing the asset:

A. Determine Cost

1. Categorize the DM into Points bands.

eg. 0-15,000 miles , X1 persons
15 - 24,999m , X2 persons
25,000 - 49,999m, X3 persons
etc

2. Each complete 25k mile threshhold equates to one flight. Place an average value per flight. Multiply it all out, add 'em up.

OR
Some people may book awards for say 100k and that may be of less value than 4 times a 25k award. So, could define each flight to be 50k or 60k and place a value on that unit of measure

3. Acquirer of the DM customer base could:

(a) restrict use of existing DM to, say, within a two year period.
(b) line up some non-airline/non-hotel merchants to accept DM as payment ... of course, the DM's would be worth less per unit at these non-airline/hotel merchants. For DM members, they would benefit through more choices for spending the miles.


B. Determine Additional Revenue Possibilities

1. Cross-sell opportunities directly by acquirer? via acquirer selling / licensing DM database for various promotions, emailings, etc
2. Acquirer could set up an A.3.(b) arrangement and receive bonuses from merchants based on volume of DM spent at a particular merchant

etc








Nobody can say what the most likely scenario is. But there are strong arguments supporting the idea that the miles will survive.

At first blush it is an easy assumption that nobody would want to assume the liability represented by "free trips". However these programs exist for a reason -- there is significant revenue associated with the programs. That revenue far exceeds the liability. If you could buy a $100MM revenue stream for $20MM in future expense would you do so? I think there are many parties who would answer "yes". The questions then become what are the real numbers? and what is the asking price? In a liquidation scenario there is a responsibility to sell the assets for the best price. DM is a net asset to US Airways (the same may not have been true for other cases such as Ansett) and this fact will not be missed in the unhappy event that the vultures swoop.

Does that mean that there are vocal buyers in the market right now? Not likely -- at this point in time anyone who would be interested is better served by talking down the idea. That way they get a better price for it. If they can set people's expectations low enough they can do all sorts of things like only honoring miles at X% or some other bogus thing.

Remember -- we're customers. We have the ultimate power in this relationship. Don't let the airlines set the agenda.

but here are a few things you can do to help

1) book all your future ff trips now on usairways partners, and hope they honor the tickets

2) if you have many miles, get a US Airways DM visa and a points.com account, and transfer them to a program which preserves most of the value, maybe Hawaiian Air or Hilton?

i have 7800 DM and the magazine selection stinks



Correct on point 1 and partly on part 2.

If you want to convert via points.com, then you must have a Div miles Visa.

However, none of those conversions are really terriffic -- you lose alot of value per FF mile.

However, if you do not like risk, and think that Star partners will not honor a US FF mile earned tix IF US Air liquidates, then you should go via points.com because something is better than nothing.

If you do the latter -- change to E-Bay ANything Points and let them sit in your account until a good bonus mileage special comes along -- last year there was one with AA -- got roughly 40% of your US Air Miles as AA miles -- Yes, it is that bad a conversion, and that is with a double multiplier!

Another conversion that may be good is into Asia Miles. Do a search on Spam or MilesBuzz and you will find out why -- suffice it to say, if you have sufficient miles, you can get a Business class tix to the UK and most other mid Euriopean destiantation for 60,000 Asia Miles.

Those with an appetite for risk, sit tight, or better yet, convert the miles into a Star tix because they may be honored, after all, IF US Air goes belly up.

Re A/C. I think that deal fell thru and another was put in its place and nothing was done with the FF program.

That said, there is a big difference between the National carrier of a country with very limited private air carriers and the situation facing US Air.

[QUOTE=NJUPINTHEAIR]Kindly answer me this: If United were to liquidate, why on earth would AA need to purchase Mileage Plus as they would have a near 100% lock on overseas flights out of Chicago? :rolleyes:

No, AA would not need to eliminate competition from Chicago as a great deal of it would go poof with United's demise.

This is a very good point you make, that I would agree with except(I am no Airline Marketing Guy) but why did American except all those TWA miles when they acquired TWA's St Louis Hub. Who else were they going to fly with. Why did Delta let all those Pan Am folks roll their miles over to their program if they had the routes. I would assume it is because if America was lucky enough to secure those routes the last thing they would want to do is give the United flyers the option of moving their business to Northwest/Continental or a foreign carrier. If it was my call I would roll only the Pacific flyers balances over.

With all this said I hope we are all wrong and USAIR survives. Many times we get wrapped up in our miles and forget that 37,000 families or probably 100,000 plus folks would be effected if they did not survive. I can't imagine people having to pull kids out of college, sell their homes etc.

I do enjoy reading all these posts as their are many ideas that make since and Flyertalk does have what appears to be some very highly intelligent folks. Happy New Year!

Yes, but that was then and this is now. That said, I think that some sort of pickup of major flyers will be in the offing or a challenge of some sort will be made for the cream, but perhaps not for the general public.

Also, AA picked up TWA's program because the deal was structured that way and this was before 2001 and the advent/onslaught of major LCC competition and prices were much higher for air travel tix. The same cannot be said now.

1. Has the partner carrier imposed any time limits on booking windows, as is the case with LH and its 90 day maximum booking window for awards using US miles..?..
I'm betting the LH is Lufthansa? Too bad as that's the carrier I was hoping to use... :(

I'm betting the LH is Lufthansa? Too bad as that's the carrier I was hoping to use... :(

LH=Lufthansa

It does depend on where you want to travel on LH. If I recall the LH restriction for using US miles, it applies to trans-Atlantic flights originating in the USA (not sure about those that originate in Europe that are bound for USA).

I do not think other flights on LH have the same 90 day restriction.

ok, willing to offer $US 500k. What are you willing to offer? I just hope they don't go to EBAY and ratcht the price up to $20m or $100m. On the other hand, go ahead, make my day!

Question for those who have been trying to get rewards on Star Alliance carriers....how resistant (if at all) has US been about booking a UA ticket using Dividend Miles when US serves that market....for example....if I wanted to try to get a IAH to CDG reward on UA, would they make me ticket on US because US flies iah to cdg via phl?

Obviously I am trying to get rid of these miles because I have great concern about what is happening at US...not even comfortable booking something on US for later this month. (The several times I have seen the US checkin at IAH (and this is before flights to phl and clt were leaving), it has been a ghost town when every other carrier is lined up and hopping...it was a bit eerie)

Of course I know that it is very possible UA might not honor the ticket in the event US goes under....but taking that chance is better than just throwing the miles away.

Anyone have a feel for such sitatuations?

While I agree with the general consesus that no savior will be around to save DM balances, I couldn't help but wonder why DM miles are such a liability. I realize that whoever (a big if) intend to pick up the balances will be providing free award travels, however, in light of alliances, are those very same DM miles only US's liabilities that no one want?? Here is my thought. Over the course of the last several months, I have been banking all of my US flights into my MP account for fear of US liquidation (I am sure many people have been doing similar thing with other Star Alliance partners). Now, since I paid US on those flights, did US pay UA for those miles that I credited to my MP? Perhaps US did. How about the flip side? Let say someone was so close to an award that he/she took a Star Alliance partner flight and had it credited to DM, would US get reimbursed for that? If not, how do these partners resolve their balances on partner activities? Let's assume that the carriers do not get reimbursed with cash for miles, whose liability is it that a theoretical flyer who accumulate a substantial DM balance while flying Star Alliance partners? To complicate things further, if a theoretical loyal UA flyer (who has been banking DM miles) want to redeem his/her DM miles on LH, who should be on the hook for that flight? US, or perhaps UA?

I guess what I am trying to say is when partners within an alliance allow flexible earning and redeeming opportunities, the liability of the miles involved gets blurred. Perhaps they have a very sophisticated accounting system that allows precise reimbusement for complex transactions. If not, I don't see how a carrier like UA can claim that DM would be a huge liability for them to pick up. Just my opinion.

LAX

They aren't "such a liability". That's an (IMHO unwarranted) assumption being made by some very vocal people. Carriers like UA have not made such a claim.

The liability carried on the books is approximately $14 per "free trip". From a marketing POV that's a pretty darned cheap customer acquisition cost if you're thinking of acquiring those customers.

LH=Lufthansa

It does depend on where you want to travel on LH. If I recall the LH restriction for using US miles, it applies to trans-Atlantic flights originating in the USA (not sure about those that originate in Europe that are bound for USA).

I do not think other flights on LH have the same 90 day restriction.

This is WRONG. The 90-day restriction for transatlantic LH flights is for United Mileage Plus redemptions, NOT for Dividend Miles redemptions. @:-)

Ok Mr Flyer know it all, you telling us you leave on a USAIR ticket to Dallas from Pittsburgh on United, while in Dallas USAIR ceases operating next day you arrive at DFW United is going to tell you sorry but we can't collect.

I am telling you that, yes, United would then have no hope of collecting money for the flight as all you hold is a promise to pay from a bankrupt airline. I did not tell you what UA's reaction will be - they might fly you out of customer goodwill. But saying "You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so." and "Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing," is the polar opposite of being correct.


I would rather hold United tickets then assume somebody will take over my USAIR miles.

I would rather bet on another airline taking over what is widely accepted as one of the few profitable segments of an airline's assets (it's FF program) than accepting a worthless ticket. You make your choice, I'll make mine, but I'd rather everyone on FT know the facts accurately to make their own informed decision


Only airline left in bankruptcy that I believe somebody would do that with is United. Why because of their massive Pacific routes that generate any profit for them. If United were to liquate American would buy mileage plus and the United routes. They would eliminate all competition from Chicago and gobble up coveted Pacific routes. In the future prior to me posting do I need you to approve my post for validity?

I'm not clear on what United going Ch.7 or their route structure has to do with the "what happend is US goes under" topic or my response....

1) book all your future ff trips now on usairways partners, and hope they honor the tickets

2) if you have many miles, get a US Airways DM visa and a points.com account, and transfer them to a program which preserves most of the value, maybe Hawaiian Air or Hilton?



or 3) Keep the miles in your account and hope someone picks up the program and accounts. The risk of 1) is that the tickets aren't honored by the partner, and you've lost the miles from your account if someone does pick it up (unless they allow redeposits).

In the end, too many possiblilties, too little known data - No One Knows. Listen to the options, with the correct facts, and make the decision best for you. My 1,000,000+ are staying in the account, and I'm using them as I need them, just as always.

I'm travelling so much for business and things change/issues arise daily in the business/company I'm at, that I don't have much opportunity to use the DM.

I no longer take US Airways nor do I credit miles to the DM account.


I'd like to use the miles for a long trip, say to Oz/Nz, but will end up going there as part of a business trip and will try, again, for vacation there. Done the RTW thing, but on OneWorld (zones pricing is quite flexible) - wouldn't mind a RTW on *alliance yet could do for business.

Though I've heard of DM's being sold, I don't think it's permitted -- is that true?

This is WRONG. The 90-day restriction for transatlantic LH flights is for United Mileage Plus redemptions, NOT for Dividend Miles redemptions. @:-)

Sounds like good news. I've emailed DM 2x and called - so far no response and the reservation agent didn't know what the guidelines where. I'm trying to get tix from Phl to Cairo...wish me luck!

or 3) Keep the miles in your account and hope someone picks up the program and accounts. The risk of 1) is that the tickets aren't honored by the partner, and you've lost the miles from your account if someone does pick it up (unless they allow redeposits).

In the end, too many possiblilties, too little known data - No One Knows. Listen to the options, with the correct facts, and make the decision best for you. My 1,000,000+ are staying in the account, and I'm using them as I need them, just as always.
CPRich, you seem to have thought this through but I have two thoughts for you:

1) Hedge your bets. With 1M+, I wouldn't count on a single safeguard. You could keep some of the miles and use some of them for partner awards. That way you double your chances on getting something should the worst happen.

2) I'm not sure that your logic on the value of the DM program to a buyer is correct. Taking on DM accounts and balances would create some goodwill from current DM members, but I don't see it changing their fundamental flying behavior post-US. If US disappears, most flyers will evaluate what carrier(s) meet their needs best and provide the best bennies. For example, when PanAm went under I was grateful that Delta gave me 100k+ miles from my PanAm account, but I rarely flew Delta as their route structure and FF program did not suit my needs at the time. Delta gave me the miles, but UA got my business.

I also would love to see the reaction from all the PMs whose miles will have been diluted with all those DM miles. Not pretty.

[QUOTE=CPRich]I am telling you that, yes, United would then have no hope of collecting money for the flight as all you hold is a promise to pay from a bankrupt airline. I did not tell you what UA's reaction will be - they might fly you out of customer goodwill. But saying "You should be unloading USAIR miles for tickets on their partners or get United tickets. this will wrok going a year out or so." and "Once you have a ticket on another carrier your risk is nothing," is the polar opposite of

CPRich- Not saying your wrong, but as I have said before nobody knows what will happen. When you get a ticket on United using USAIR miles the ticket says nothing about USAIR. I know! I have done this, So you show up at a ticket counter and you have a United ticket. So unless United uploads there computers to confiscate all United tickets via USAIR the tickets are good. The gate agent can't tell. Using United's size and there Washington HUB,
f if if USAIR failed United would at the least; garner over 10% of all their traffic. You are talking about yearly revenues of Hundred's of Millions of $$$$ that they desperatly need. Do you really believe they will tell you to go Pound Sand! If you believe this then you know little to nothing about Sales or Marketing. Happy Flying!

Milesrus,

I am sorry to tell you that you are completely incorrect. US award tickets booked on UA aircraft are ABSOLUTELY NOT considered UA tickets.

US tickets have a three number airline ticket designator code of 037 (These are the first three digits of your ticket)

UA tickets have a three number airline ticket designator code of 016

Any half-blind UA agent sees these first three digits of your US ticket on UA metal and they know instantly that it is US.

It's irrelevant anyway, because UA's IT department could very quickly cull a list of US tickets on their metal and do with them what they please.

What no one has brought up is the fact that UA could very well honor the AWARD tickets but ask the PAX to pay all or part of what US would have reimbursed them for the award.

BUT that is just speculation on my part. I do not proclaim that I can see the future, if I could, I would not have to work for a living.


CPRich- Not saying your wrong, but as I have said before nobody knows what will happen. When you get a ticket on United using USAIR miles the ticket says nothing about USAIR. I know! I have done this, So you show up at a ticket counter and you have a United ticket. So unless United uploads there computers to confiscate all United tickets via USAIR the tickets are good. The gate agent can't tell. Using United's size and there Washington HUB,
f if if USAIR failed United would at the least; garner over 10% of all their traffic. You are talking about yearly revenues of Hundred's of Millions of $$$$ that they desperatly need. Do you really believe they will tell you to go Pound Sand! If you believe this then you know little to nothing about Sales or Marketing. Happy Flying!

When you get a ticket on United using USAIR miles the ticket says nothing about USAIR. I know! I have done this, So you show up at a ticket counter and you have a United ticket. So unless United uploads there computers to confiscate all United tickets via USAIR the tickets are good. The gate agent can't tell.

Wrong wrong wrong! PLEASE stop posting this bad information. :td:

When you get a ticket on United using USAIR miles the ticket says nothing about USAIR. I know! I have done this, So you show up at a ticket counter and you have a United ticket. !

Hmm--I am not so sure if you are right on this one.

How does your ticket number read on the tickets that you are booking with US on partner carriers? If it starts with 037--the ticket has been issued on US ticket stock.

I thought the same thing last year until I looked at a Qantas paper ticket that I booked using US miles--and that ticket number starts with 037--so Qantas would have a way of knowing in their system if this was a US award ticket.

Not sure if it is the same with star alliance carriers, but I have a feeling that it is the same process.

edit:

To follow up on what Neo posted--I think the issue with the award tickets is probably one of will partner carriers other than UA honor the tickets. UA would be obligated under the federal rules to accomodate you on the same exact route (on standby) for $50 for a purchased ticket. Since you already have an itinerary with UA--it seems like it might be good business sense for UA to honor the US award tickets since they can hit every pax up for the additional $50 without too much effort at trying to re-accomodate since the pax already has a seat booked on that particular UA flight anyway. UA's marginal cost for letting an award pax on a flight is less than $50, so it is all profit to them--maybe not quite a profit maximizing scheme for routes that are really always sold out, but generally I think it would be to UA's benefit to take the $50 per pax instead of cancelling out all of those award reservations from US pax and trying to resell them at full fare.

Partner carriers other than UA, and especially foreign carriers, (which I surmise that most people booking award tickets using US miles are booking overseas trips) is a different story. It depends if the federal rules are accepted and followed by the foreign partner carriers. I am not sure that they are obligated by law to do so.....

LH=Lufthansa

It does depend on where you want to travel on LH. If I recall the LH restriction for using US miles, it applies to trans-Atlantic flights originating in the USA (not sure about those that originate in Europe that are bound for USA).

I do not think other flights on LH have the same 90 day restriction.

Just spoke with the DM Silver CSR desk, can book LH 330 days out.

Just spoke with the DM Silver CSR desk, can book LH 330 days out.


Yes--as someone posted earlier, I was confusing the 90 day restriction with UA. I think I just assumed that it also applied to US.

I read on the UA forum that the 90 day limit has been removed on the LH transatlantic flights using UA miles.

..

Appartantly many of you feel the same way, so maybe I am wrong. United is the only US carrier that you can roll miles to, therefore they have the largest exposure or alliance to US Air travelers. WHY WHY would they then deny these people a ticket. Doing so will guarantee you will never see another dime of revenue from that person. United stands to gain the most from USAIR's failure so they will bend over backwards to accomodate these people.

Moderator,

Perhaps this thread, started by a first-time poster, should be merged with a pre-existing thread on this topic?

See, e.g., What to do with US miles if they go under as expected?
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=316638

United is the only US carrier that you can roll miles to, therefore they have the largest exposure or alliance to US Air travelers. WHY WHY would they then deny these people a ticket. .

What do you mean by "roll miles to"..?

If you are talking about award tickets booked on UA with US miles, I agree, they could simply say that they will treat UA tickets booked as award travel tickets using US miles like any paid US ticket and accomodate those pax under the federal rule recently extended, charging the pax $50 per rt. the pax may grumble a little, but I doubt there will be any lasting damage to UA.

UA already has those pax booked on their flights--so they have two choices. They can accomodate the pax under the federal rule and hit the pax up for the allowable fee-- $50 per rt. That $50 per ticket is going to be more than the UA's marginal cost of flying the pax to his destination, so it makes sense for UA to do it.

The only way they might lose out is if they could sell those seats that are now booked as award seats with US miles--at some fare above $50.

Sure--they could probably sell some of them--but certainly the award tickets that are due to fly the week or two or three after US would hypothetically shutdown would be harder to sell--so UA has to decide--accept the tickets on UA booked with US miles and collect a marginal revenue of $50 per pax--or cancel them out and hope to sell enough of the cancelled seats to so that their total revenue generated on all the cancelled award seats is higher than the $50 per pax that they would be more or less guaranteed if they treat the award tickets like any other US ticket after a liquidation.

The question again is the other alliance partners and how they view the situation of having seats on their airline booked with US miles as awards. Do they cancel the tickets out and tell pax sorry, US can't pay so you can't fly or do they voluntarily adhere to the federal rule about re-accomodating the pax for $50 per rt.

Seems like the same marginal revenue argument might make sense, but I bet a lot of those star alliance booked award tickets are to far fung destinations, so even collecting $50 per rt for each ticket might not be enough to induce them to accept the award tickets.

..

Has anyone asked any of the *A airlines if they have come up with anything in case of a liquidation?

I am going to Puerto Rico for work next week and I am one of the few who still booked with USair. I'm crossing my fingers!

Moderator,

Perhaps this thread, started by a first-time poster, should be merged with a pre-existing thread on this topic?

See, e.g., What to do with US miles if they go under as expected?
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=316638


Or the other bazillion threads on the same topic. ;)

Has anyone asked any of the *A airlines if they have come up with anything in case of a liquidation?

I am going to Puerto Rico for work next week and I am one of the few who still booked with USair. I'm crossing my fingers!

Not to worry they will fly next week and hopefully forever!

I am beginning to think all other posters keep responding from an accounting view. Will the other airlines collect? maybe? maybe not! Who cares revenue with frequent travelers is all about gaining repeat business. I love all these people making 1,000 post with 6 months of flyertalk, I have been doing this for 17 years and have seen the past. As all Mutual Fund Disclosers state ,future returns have no revelance to past history!

Not to worry they will fly next week and hopefully forever!

Who cares revenue with frequent travelers is all about gaining repeat business. I love all these people making 1,000 post with 6 months of flyertalk, I have been doing this for 17 years and have seen the past.

Hmm--I think we have heard airline announcements in the past that haven't quite lived up to expectations--apparently because the airline's management was living in the past about 17 years and not worrying much about the future...



No one expects Braniff to go broke. No major U.S. carrier ever has.

---------— The Wall Street Journal, 30 July 1980.




United has little to fear from numerous small competitors. We should be able to compete effectively by advertising our size, dependability, and experience, and by matching or beating their promotional tactics. . . . In a free environment, we would be able to flex our marketing muscles a bit and should not fear the treat of being nibbled to death by little operators.

----- Richard Ferris, CEO United Airlines, 1976.




There are many more such quotable quotes--but you get the idea--and you are right--the past is no indicator of the future--especially 17 years of the past..... :p

..

I love all these people making 1,000 post with 6 months of flyertalk, I have been doing this for 17 years and have seen the past. As all Mutual Fund Disclosers state ,future returns have no revelance to past history!

I'll refrain from bashing on the additional incorrect information, as others have beat me to it.

I'll just suggest that you re-evaluate the level of understanding and sophistication of the audience here on FT. 17 years? Check. Flying an average of 50 times each of those years? Check. Worked on original airline revenue management application for NW airline when with A former consulting employer? Check. 001, 006, 016, 037 are understood interchangeably with AA, DL, UA, US? Check. And I know there are FT members who know their way around airlines much better than I.

Yes, no one knows the future. But many people know enough facts to discuss the realistic possibilities and the factual situation. Absurd statements that are not just incorrect but will lead unknowledgeable readers towards bad decisions will be jumped on.

And, unlike financial market performance (sorry, MBA in Finance too), management is a bit of a science and learning, trends, and past performance does indicated future performance - Welch was not lucky and the US crew will not be extremely successful next time around. Or ever,