What's the secret to booking on oversold fllights?

Being lucky (http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum124/HTML/006237.html) http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

Or in other words being at the right place at the right time.

[This message has been edited by magic111 (edited 10-25-2003).]

i echo being lucky. very few flights need volunteers. (boy, you are ALL about the bump....all of your posts are 'bout bumping.) http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif
if you are going to obsess about something like bumping, i would suggest the lottery or roulette, also.

Use common sense. Business destinations at peak times, leisure destination on holiday weekends, special events, etc.

At the same time there's no guarantees. On a recent EWR-ATL on a Friday night (peak business flight) that was well oversold, air traffic delays into EWR caused enough misconnects that all standbys were accommodated and all Elites were upgraded.

So even carefully planned situations can backfire. At the same time, be prepared when you least expect it. An earlier cancellation can take an otherwise normal-looking flight and turn it into an oversold situation just a few hours before departure.

Also, make sure you know your backup plans. On an ORD-MSP this week that was over, actively seeking volunteers, NWA wouldn't take us because there were no alternatives into our final destination on NW that day. Instead they were looking for MSP-bound pax only. I suppose if things got hairy and they needed many more volunteers, they might have taken us, but for the 5 or 6 they did need, it wasn't worth reaccomodation on another carrier.

Keep buying seats on the flight until they won't sell any more.

At least one bump should result. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

The problem with Spiff's solution is that the TSA will probably hold up one of your reservations long enough for it to miss the flight and you will not be bumped.

Fly on airline award blackout days. Fly friday evening and sunday evening, make lots of connections, and don't fly jungle jets.

But most importantly be smarter than the airline's computer.

I disagree with the comments about rarity and like a lottery. With good planning you can easily parlay bumps into perpetual almost free travel.

I recently took a bump run that paid 12 times the airfare I paid (excluding taxes)

You want to be bumped. One word COMDEX. Best odds from anywhere to Vegas. Plus once you get to Vegas you can really gamble. Place your bet soon..oops I mean place your reservation soon since the show is starting soon.

As much as I appreciate the roulette comment I do think that there is a little more than luck involved... On my last round trip flight I got bumped once on the way out and four times on the way back. I'll figure it out one day!
Tough loss for the Yanks tonight, eh?

Thank-you Mr. Crump! Please describe more about that particular flight.

If you are interested in recreation destinations, it can pay to check your local school schedule. Things like spring break/Thanksgiving/Christmas vacation funnel families into certain peak periods (and also reduce the competition from other passengers wanting to volunteer their seats- try telling a 2nd grader you are going to miss a day at Disney World!).

My all time favorite days to get bumped (drum roll please)... my state's educational association week. Unlike spring break, where different school districts may observe different weeks, ALL schools are out during the state educational association meeting, even private schools. Good opportunity to be bumped, at least if you fly the Friday night/Saturday before, and return the Saturday/Sunday after this week.

Last week my family of three got 3 vouchers and one free round trip ticket using this strategy (we could have made more, but I had to turn down a chance for all of us to be bumped into the following day (Monday).

Still, it IS a matter of luck. I would recommend choosing a destination that you would like to see anyway, so you won't be disappointed if/when you don't get bumped.

I would chime in for the last days of particular holiday weekends.. so, for this year:

Sunday, November 30th
Sunday, December 28th

and then, of course
Sunday, January 4th

Of course, not all flights on these dates will be oversold.. but then you have to get creative... that is, think where people are mostly likely to go. Season, holiday, location.. So, for example:

*for the end of New Year's weekend, flights out of NYC will be crowded.. as well as london, paris.. also, people at ski resorts will be coming back home. RNO-ORD on AA is always packed around this time, since AA has the only nonstop to Chicago.. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

Use all your resources if you want to find the best bump flights. I wouldn't just rely solely on this board.




[This message has been edited by izzik (edited 10-26-2003).]

I have this particular bump run that I fly on a regular basis for no other reason than to collect bumps. Very simular to the mileage run others do. But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.

The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes. Sometimes I take a baby under 2 yrs old and pay for the extra seat, other times I take a friend and on occasion I have been able to use free companion certificates.

I try to book a year in advance while the fare buckets are open. This also helps with being able to change flights because when the winter schedules are changed you have a little flexabilty because the airline needs to change your schedule and you can move to the heaviest flights regardless of low fare bucket availability.

I always book my arrival Hotel and rental cars for seperate days so I don't loose the reservations if I am a no show. Hotels on special event days are expensive so its best to drive an hour to the next town, bring a tent or consider a hostel. I am tempted to park an RV in my bump run town but I haven't figured out the airport transfer and storage.

It takes a huge amount of time to figure out what where an event city with an airline that bumps a lot fitting the above requirements is. Study events, study low fare markets, study the time of day those flights sell out on galileo and let the obsession begin.

The one thing that makes this process luck is that the airlines computer system has all the data to prevent you from figuring out when and where a bump will occur. Their system computes the exact number of seats they can oversell without causing a bump based on the factors they can determine lead to bumps and prior experience. But as with any computer program there are weaknesses and you are trying to guess what those may be. By making triple connections you should be able to overcome the odds. This is the one area I am suprised no FTer or former airline employee has shed much light on. Can we have a former airine computer programer post some code here?


Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.

It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.

The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes. Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.

It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.

</font>

although i am skeptical, i like what your post has to say...the parts i understand. above are some of the sentences in which i am baffled. but, i think i get the gist of your post, for the most part.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
although i am skeptical, i like what your post has to say...the parts i understand. above are some of the sentences in which i am baffled. but, i think i get the gist of your post, for the most part.</font>

I was responding to the poster asking for additional details about my previous post. As far as skeptacism I can understand. You can't imagine the amount of time I have put into figuring out bumps. I've done bump runs since the early 80's. So If you haven't invested the time and mental energy into what I see as a competition (the airline makes the rules and I play the game) I can understand the skeptacism.

I even bought a 30 day pass once and spent the whole 30 days mindlessly flying for bumps. I used the bump passes from that trip to fly free for the next year and the bumps I got during that year continued provided bump runs for future years.

I'll try to explain the lines you question


But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.


I was referring to the fact as others have that going to a city where an event "Mardi Gras, Superbowl, Comdex etc.." is going on increases your chances and by staying for the event you get the heavy flights going in and coming out. Also Mileage runners don't go to enjoy something at the destination. I do and I think it adds to the trip.


The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes.


The poster asked about a run that paid 12 times the airfare in bump compensation and I was giving him the parameters I used for selecting that run.


Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.


This was just a dumb comment I made about how hard it is to get your wife to take a bump. Several post comment on how obsessed the poster is about bumping I guess I tried to be funny and failed.


It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.


Seems self explanitory as a response to the secret of how to do bumps. Some people hate a day in the airport. It is possible to make it productive.

Good luck in your bump quest. Some people see bumps as the icing on the cake. I see them as a lot more.

Maybee it's time for someone to start a bump primer on FT.

Jerry,
Great post and I would also like to see a bump primer on the site. The mileage run primer taught me a lot (although I still schedule my runs so as to spend a day or more at the destination ) and I would love to learn more about the art ( http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif ) of getting bumped.

Why not RJs? Do they not get overbooked?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
Fly on airline award blackout days. Fly friday evening and sunday evening, make lots of connections, and don't fly jungle jets.</font>

Mr. Crump... excellent! Thanks, although there's more information to be had...!!!

The rules of involuntary boarding allow 50% of the compensation of larger jets for smaller RJ's and airlines often reduce their involuntary offers accordingly.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by yevlesh2:
Why not RJs? Do they not get overbooked?

</font>

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
The rules of involuntary boarding allow 50% of the compensation of larger jets for smaller RJ's and airlines often reduce their involuntary offers accordingly.</font>

I'd have to disagree with the second part of this. I've received some quite generous bumps on UX, and seen some reasonable ones on COEX.

In fact, it is my understanding that since UA books UX flights, UA is responsible for the payout (which is administered by a UX agent). So there is no incentive for a UX agent to be conservative. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

Try the Monday morning UA 961 CDG/SFO during the summer. I was bumped twice btwn June and Sept. Pretty good odds I'd say.

I picked up an unexpected bump this past weekend. I was going DTW-ALB. They were looking for volunteers. I was quite shocked. I got 300 the hotel and 20 in food vouchers and free call from the gate. I am on my way to bump tracker. Looking forward to some bumps on 11/26.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:

The one thing that makes this process luck is that the airlines computer system has all the data to prevent you from figuring out when and where a bump will occur. Their system computes the exact number of seats they can oversell without causing a bump based on the factors they can determine lead to bumps and prior experience. But as with any computer program there are weaknesses and you are trying to guess what those may be. By making triple connections you should be able to overcome the odds. This is the one area I am suprised no FTer or former airline employee has shed much light on. Can we have a former airine computer programer post some code here?
</font>

This is not true. No one knows the exact number of seats a flight can be overbooked without any bumping.

In the yield management system, each reservation is a random variable. You might show up, you might not. No one knows until you actually show up or you miss the boarding deadline.

Previous experience, broken down by season, time of day, booking class, etc., provides the airline with an estimate of the probability of a reservation being a no-show. Using these estimates, the airline has to make a decision between:

overbook more ==&gt; increased probability of bumping (expense) but more revenue
overbook less ==&gt; decreased probability of bumping but less revenue

------------------
"Yippie-kay-yay, Mr. Falcon!" -- John McClane, Die Hard II As Seen on TV

I'm flying the following on my Sunday 12/28 return. (redeye outbound 12/23 LAX-ORD, & ORD-MBS).

MBS-ORD, ORD-OMA, OMA-DEN, & DEN-LAX. That was all I could get for a LAX-MBS RT of $333. The return with 4 legs should be decent bump opportunities. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

We'll see what happens at Christmas time. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by JS:
This is not true. No one knows the exact number of seats a flight can be overbooked without any bumping.

In the yield management system, each reservation is a random variable. You might show up, you might not. No one knows until you actually show up or you miss the boarding deadline.

Previous experience, broken down by season, time of day, booking class, etc., provides the airline with an estimate of the probability of a reservation being a no-show. Using these estimates, the airline has to make a decision between:

overbook more ==&gt; increased probability of bumping (expense) but more revenue
overbook less ==&gt; decreased probability of bumping but less revenue

</font>

I agree with everything you said. My post was so long to start with that I didn't feel it was important to get into a discussion of statistics that I assumed everyone understood.


A great website about American Airlines yeild management software DINAMO is at:

http://www.luc.edu/faculty/eventa/archive/su483we/yield.htm

a very detailed statistical model is at

http://www.math.duke.edu/news/awards/student/mcm2002.pdf

I must say I am impressed. I have been the recepient of over 25 bumps in the past couple of years which has enabled basically free travel for the last 3 years (bumps on trips using vouchers). I thought I was knowledgeable but you are at another level. Thanks for sharing your insights.

Oh my... I have this huge grin just looking at the first two pages of those documents. Amazing stuff. This will be some great reading. Thank you thank you.
On a more generic-simple level, CNN wrote an article on bumping today..

http://www.cnn.com/2003/TRAVEL/ADVISOR/10/28/hln.adviser.bumped/index.html

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by channa:
I'd have to disagree with the second part of this. I've received some quite generous bumps on UX, and seen some reasonable ones on COEX.

In fact, it is my understanding that since UA books UX flights, UA is responsible for the payout (which is administered by a UX agent). So there is no incentive for a UX agent to be conservative. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif</font>

Some ailines may be exceptions, but year to date Atlantic Southeast Airlines has involuntarily denied boarded almost 10 times the industry average for the first 3 quarters of 2003.

I believe the reason for this is that I understand they have a policy of offering $200 for involuntary denied boarding regardless of when they will be able to get volunteers to their destination. For this reason ASA has to involuntarily bump lots of passengers because their offer to volunteers is so poor. I think their logic is we fly mostly jungle jets so the maximum exposure we have to involuntary boarding on most flights is $200.00 so why offer more.

This doesn't make them a good candidate for a bump run and at least in my mind it is a good reason to just avoid RJ's on bump runs.
Hey there are 8,000 flights per day you have to start eliminating choices somehow.

Unlike Rivals, jetBlue Won't Do the Bump (http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2003/10/24-overbooking.htm)

An interesting article that touches on a number of issues discussed in this thread.

[This message has been edited by mtm767 (edited 10-30-2003).]

Interesting article. Thanks! It's good to know that JetBlue does not overbook. Also, does anyone have more info on the Super Dupe Snooper software mentioned in the article? I'd love to learn more about it.
Happy Travels

[This message has been edited by bennytma (edited 10-29-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by bennytma:
Also, does anyone have more info on the Super Dupe Snooper software mentioned in the article?</font>

http://www.airauto.com/aai/start.htm

How do I read Galileo? Is this an accurate way to predict which fligths will be full? For example:

SFO SYD 01/2215*0745 UA 863 F1 C0 D0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 V5#744.

Thanks

The Y9 indicates there are 9 or more seats available at full fare coach, so not likely you're going to get bumped there. You want to see 0's and 1's to show the flight is being sold out. The most expensive seats are on the left side of the list, and they get cheaper as you work your way to the right (everything to the right of Y is a coach seat of some fare basis). F is first and C is business.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
How do I read Galileo? Is this an accurate way to predict which fligths will be full? For example:

SFO SYD 01/2215*0745 UA 863 F1 C0 D0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 V5#744.

Thanks</font>

If you go to Google Click on advanced and search the word Galileo and limit it to the flyertalk.com domain you get 15 threads that have discussed galileo including this one in the NW forum:
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum35/HTML/006322.html
but basically when you look at this section F1 C0 D0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 V5 there is 1 seat in F class none in C and 9 or more in Y etc...

My strategy for a bump run is to buy the cheapest seat on busy day 331 days before a flight certain to sell out then for example this in early January buy a triple leg ticket for the Wednesday afternoon before thanksgiving to your bump run city returning Sunday after Thanksgiving. If you don't like the flights you get or the airfare don't worry both will change.

When the schedules change in the spring and again in October you will get a chance to move to heavy flights because with 6 segments the schedule will almost always change on one of them. You go to Galileo find the biggest plane with the least seats available in coach and move to that flight regardless of the availability of cheap seats because it is the airline that cancelled one of your flights so you get to pick any available flight with coach seats available.

As far as it not mattering what fare you pay, if you properly pick a bump run city it is one that has fare sales on a regular basis that include friday and sunday flights. You set up an expedia or travelocity fare watcher and when the fare goes down you call the airline and they will give you a voucher for the difference in the in higher fare you paid and the new sale price (may vary from airline to airline check your particular airline for details).

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
call the airline and they will give you a voucher for the difference in the in higher fare you paid and the new sale price (may vary from airline to airline check your particular airline for details).</font>
not on continental.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
You go to Galileo find the biggest plane with the least seats available in coach and move to that flight regardless of the availability of cheap seats because it is the airline that cancelled one of your flights so you get to pick any available flight with coach seats available.</font>

two things. (1) it's interesting that you choose the biggest plane. i always go for the smallest plane (like one of those super small 737s) because if that flight is almost all zeros there is less variability. i am not doubting you (because you obviously know what you are doing), but why do you choose the biggest plane?? and


(2) if the schedule changes, does the airline always let you pick any flight to switch carte blanche? what if you originally booked an AM flight and the schedule changes by 30 minutes, do they let you switch to a PM flight?

thanks.

Since I am always willing to change I will now change my original post from "Being Lucky" to
Good planning = Good Luck
Bad Planning = Bad Luck

Even after printing out and reading the 42 page document on "Optimal Overbooking" I will still say that there is an element of luck involved and no guarantees. Having said that I will also say that I am a gambling man and like to have the odds in my favor.

Thanks for the information jerry crump

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
two things. (1) it's interesting that you choose the biggest plane. i always go for the smallest plane (like one of those super small 737s) because if that flight is almost all zeros there is less variability. i am not doubting you (because you obviously know what you are doing), but why do you choose the biggest plane?? and


Since I'm suggesting the busiest blackout and event dates all mid day and afternoon flights will fill up and those will will have the most overbooked seats. I fell like an average amount of overbooking is about 20% so the 50 passenger plane will have 10
over and the 200 passenger plane will have 40 overbooked. Since you have competition with other volunteers you are more likely in my opinion to be bumped on a big full plane. Since the airline yeild management
system should be able to even out all of the other variables it just gives you more chances to play against the computer. I was really just saying avoid RJ more than anything.

However you may be better off on days that will not be complete sellouts in the midsized jets because the widebodies are less likely to sell out and the RJs don't have to compensate as much.



(2) if the schedule changes, does the airline always let you pick any flight to switch carte blanche? what if you originally booked an AM flight and the schedule changes by 30 minutes, do they let you switch to a PM flight?

thanks.</font>

I have always been able to pick my schedule on the date that they changed my flights because of a schedule change, just this month I changed form a 5 AM to a 3PM departure because of schedule change.


You point out that CO doesn't refund the difference if the fare goes down. I don't know the specifics but I have read that CO has some kind of policy about fares going down. Most domestic airlines charge $100 if you want cash back or no fee if you want a voucher for domestic flights. On international it is less common.

It would be nice if everyone would link their airline's policy on fares going down from the airline web site to this thread.

Silly question... but how do you determine the blackout dates and event dates. Do you look up every city and find out what's going on there?

Should I be buying a ticket leaving houston to anywhere on Sunday afternoon, Feb 1, after the Super Bowl? Is that a good or great chance of getting bumped?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
Maybe it's time for someone to start a bump primer on FT.</font>


Industrial Patent did one in the NW forum here: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum35/HTML/007484.html

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by magic111:
Since I am always willing to change I will now change my original post from "Being Lucky" to
Good planning = Good Luck
Bad Planning = Bad Luck

Even after printing out and reading the 42 page document on "Optimal Overbooking" I will still say that there is an element of luck involved and no guarantees. Having said that I will also say that I am a gambling man and like to have the odds in my favor.

Thanks for the information jerry crump</font>

Here are the odds according to the DOT for the 3rd QTR of 2003 per passenger (I divided total involuntary and voluntary bumps by emplainements)

JETBLUE AIRWAYS 2.71503E-06
ATA AIRLINES 0.000439461
AMERICAN EAGLE AIRLINES 0.000737176
ALASKA AIRLINES 0.000801883
SOUTHWEST AIRLINES 0.001290307
AMERICAN AIRLINES 0.001373434
DELTA AIR LINES 0.001549186
CONTINENTAL AIRLINES 0.001643827
Average 0.001730714
NORTHWEST AIRLINES 0.002059599
UNITED AIRLINES 0.002336477
AIRTRAN AIRWAYS 0.002459392
AMERICA WEST AIRLINES 0.002530633
US AIRWAYS 0.002767479
ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST AIRLINES 0.002829424

So if the average airplane has 100 seats your odds on the average airline are that 17 percent of the flights will have an average of 1 bump.

So your odds are basically 1 in 6 that the flight will have an average of 1 bump.

If you are flying 6 segments the odds are getting good.

On busy event days, Friday and Sunday evenings and blackout dates it has been my experience that the number is more like 50% of the flights I pick have an average of 3 passenger bumps. My personal experience on bump runs is I get an average of a little over 2 bumps per ticket purchased or 1 in 3 flights.

Somebody is ready to shoot back a response that this is BS 1 in 6 of my flights didn't ask for volunteers. There are 2 reasons for this.

1) often enough volunteers volunteer without an announcement being made, and

2) I used an average of 1 bump per flight. On flights when bumps occur the average is more than 1. You may take 18 flights and only 1 offered 3 people bumps so that is the same as 6 flights with an average of 1 bump per flight.

Luck is when the odds are less than 100% of an event occuring. Using the info in this post the odds are greater than 100% you will be bumped so it is unlucky if you don't. (if you haven't guessed I have a Math degree)


Happy Bumps


[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-30-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Should I be buying a ticket leaving houston to anywhere on Sunday afternoon, Feb 1, after the Super Bowl? Is that a good or great chance of getting bumped?</font>

It probably would be if you booked in on CO and went through a major city (i.e. the people from a small town route probably aren't going to the superbowl, whereas the people from a big town like NYC or LAX or DCA may be).

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Should I be buying a ticket leaving houston to anywhere on Sunday afternoon, Feb 1, after the Super Bowl? Is that a good or great chance of getting bumped?</font>


Actually late sunday evening or monday morning but all of the cheap seats are already sold out for 2004 I looked about a week ago. In March of 2004 do this for 2005.

Even better book a flight to Houston Friday evening returning monday morning so you double your chances.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Silly question... but how do you determine the blackout dates and event dates. Do you look up every city and find out what's going on there?</font>


Look at blackout dates on certificates likethe recent fly 3 get one free. Webflyer has a calendar of award blackout dates that consolidates all the major airlines. Sports websites have calendars. Check goodyears website for the blimp schedule. Use your creativity.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Viajero Joven:

Industrial Patent did one in the NW forum here: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum35/HTML/007484.html

</font>

I wonder if we are discussing this in the correct forum it might be travel buzz.

I vote to change forum name to mileage/bump runs because a mileage run without a bump cost money.

edited for a typo
[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-30-2003).]

[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-30-2003).]

Thanks for your advice on the super bowl. I will try for a friday night - monday morning. I fly out of ONT or LAX. Any suggestions on possible routing or best airline for bump run?

I totally agree about setting up a bump only forum

Jerry (or Others), if your flying 3 segments each way does the time you arrive at the gate for segment 2 and segment 3 effect your bump chances. In other words, do you allow yourself sufficient time to be at the gate before anyone else, for your second and third segments? So much for tight connections???

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
I vote to change forum name to mileage/bump runs </font>

I respectfully disagree. The reasoning is that Mileage Runs are more scientific: One can check fares, routings, and mileages, and be 99% certain they will receive 500+500 miles for a PHX-LAX-SAN pricing at $78. The 1% uncertainty is natural uncertainty for extraordinary circumstances, like the PHX-LAX flight diverting to SAN due to forest fire smoke. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/eek.gif

Bumps, while they can be anticipated, are much less scientific. Extensive discussion in this and other threads indicates that bumps are not nearly as certain or predictable as we would like. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif So, postings on bump experiences would be more along the lines of anecdotal vs. hard fact.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ingy:
Jerry (or Others), if your flying 3 segments each way does the time you arrive at the gate for segment 2 and segment 3 effect your bump chances. In other words, do you allow yourself sufficient time to be at the gate before anyone else, for your second and third segments? So much for tight connections??? </font>

It does, because I've only been able to get on the lists at the gate. However, as gate agents will only accept volunteers that already have a confirmed seat assignment, it helps to check-in as early as possible and on the multi-segment trips you can find out whether or not your flights are oversold in advance just by calling the reservations line. If they aren't willing to give you exact numbers, as some aren't, you can pretend that you *really* need to make that flight and you want to know what your chances are if your connection is delayed. The more "concerned" you are, the more likely they are to give you exact numbers.

On another note, I agree with VJ above.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ingy:
Jerry (or Others), if your flying 3 segments each way does the time you arrive at the gate for segment 2 and segment 3 effect your bump chances. In other words, do you allow yourself sufficient time to be at the gate before anyone else, for your second and third segments? So much for tight connections??? </font>

I try for long waits between flights but the mechanics of triple connections and trying to avoid RJ's makes that a secondary issue.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Viajero Joven:
So, postings on bump experiences would be more along the lines of anecdotal vs. hard fact.</font>

Bumptracker.com is the place to post bump experiences. It would really make a boaring thread unless you could add some info that explained in detail how someone else might reproduce that bump.

The simularity (with mileage runs)is in the planning, the need for cheap airfares for it to be profitable etc...

No one else here has stated that they have planned and took a trip strictly for the purpose of obtaining bumps. Are there others doing this?

[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-30-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by bhatnasx:
It does, because I've only been able to get on the lists at the gate. However, as gate agents will only accept volunteers that already have a confirmed seat assignment, it helps to check-in as early as possible </font>

They do this because when I worked at the DFW airport in the early 80's people would buy several thousand dollar F tickets One way DFW-HNL and stand by the counter. When the last seat was filled they would present theirs for compensation which at that time was a multiple of the fare paid many, thousands of dollars. If there were not going to be any bumps they would cash in their ticket. Those guys made a mint but I wouldn't do it because it seemed unethical to me.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Thanks for your advice on the super bowl. I will try for a friday night - monday morning. I fly out of ONT or LAX. Any suggestions on possible routing or best airline for bump run?

I totally agree about setting up a bump only forum</font>


It was stated earlier It takes a huge amount of time to figure out what where an event city with an airline that bumps a lot fitting the above requirements is. Study events, study low fare markets, study the time of day those flights sell out on galileo and let the obsession begin.

You have to do all of that research yourself but don't get to focused on the event. The airline yeild programs have figured that event in. All it does is assure you of busy day which is nothing more than a blackout day.

I went to an really big sporting event this year. All of the Friday afternoon and evening arrivals and Sunday departures on every airline were sold out weeks in advance leaving Sunday afternoon after 6 flights I was told they only had 1 bump out of all those flights. Events don't cause any more bumps than any other day when all the flights are sold out. They just cause the flights to sell out.

But I still picked up 3 bumps that weekend because friday afternoon and sunday afternoon flights are heavy almost everywhere.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
I have always been able to pick my schedule on the date that they changed my flights because of a schedule change, just this month I changed form a 5 AM to a 3PM departure because of schedule change.</font>

aamericaan changed my flight two days ago returning from Miami to LaGuardia the sunday after thanksgiving. the new time is later than what i want. they refused to put me on an earlier flight because they said everything was sold out.

so, on busy days it might be hard to switch to exactly the time you want.

Fascinating stuff to read Jerry Crump. Thank you much for posting!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
aamericaan changed my flight two days ago returning from Miami to LaGuardia the sunday after thanksgiving. the new time is later than what i want. they refused to put me on an earlier flight because they said everything was sold out.

so, on busy days it might be hard to switch to exactly the time you want.</font>

A good example of why to book bump runs 331 days in advance. You get to go through 2 schedule change cycles fall and spring. They change your Thanksgiving flight in the spring and you watch in June thru September for the heaviest big flight and you call and ask to be switched to it. By the mid October schedule change some flights may be full.

If you keep checking an earlier flight might open up especially at 2AM when the airline computers cancel seats that have gone unticketed.

When they change your flights you may start out in the lowest fare bucket but they will book you in Y if that is all that's left or some airlines will keep your current fare bucket by forcing your reservation into the lower bucket lowering the availability in Y by 1. Sometimes it gets you into a fare bucket that earns status miles. A fact that pure mileage runners might want to consider.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Viajero Joven:

Industrial Patent did one in the NW forum here: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/Forum35/HTML/007484.html

</font>

I like his statement in the NW primer

"Which routes can I fly to maximize my chances of being ‘bumped?’

All flights that routinely depart full have an equal chance of being oversold and needing volunteers. While this may not be true with other airlines, it is true of NW."

We are focusing in this thread on events too much it's better to focus on days when all flights are full because earlier flights spill over into later flights. So if you go to galilelo and find every friday afternoon that all flights from city x to city y are sold out that is as good as an event.

Also thanks for all the compliments. Obsessions can make one feel very lonely. Half my friends think I'm crazy, the other half bump run with me and their families vacation for free after we get back.

If you have room for one more..It would be an honor to bump run with you!
Happy flying.Tattikat2

Any ideas on who is going to Super Bowl ? :-) . I am guessing many fans from those cities would want to attend.


And Jerry, I would also love to do a bump run with you sometime. Which cities do usually run from?

[This message has been edited by yevlesh2 (edited 10-30-2003).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by yevlesh2:
Any ideas on who is going to Super Bowl ? :-) . I am guessing many fans from those cities would want to attend.


And Jerry, I would also love to do a bump run with you sometime. Which cities do usually run from?


DFW, LIT, MEM, TUL

[This message has been edited by yevlesh2 (edited 10-30-2003).]</font>



[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-30-2003).]

This has really been one of the better threads on flyer talk. Good stuff.

My question is - do you notice others on the same flights as you wanting to get bumped?

Of course, most people just want the whole plane experience to start and end as quick as possible, but do you think on an average flight "we" are competing with others to get that 1 bump?


------------------
"to travel is to discover that everyone is wrong about other countries"

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by mikensf74:
This has really been one of the better threads on flyer talk. Good stuff.

My question is - do you notice others on the same flights as you wanting to get bumped?

Of course, most people just want the whole plane experience to start and end as quick as possible, but do you think on an average flight "we" are competing with others to get that 1 bump?


</font>

The only competition I care about is the ones that volunteer before me on a connection where I can't be at the gate 1 hour before departure, and yes I'm starting to see that, but it just adds to the chaos and fun. Just like in business your competition becomes your friend and you end up spending the rest of the day with them usually (so you can keep an eye on them).

If the airlines were really doing a better job they would do more auctioning which would mean less involuntary and less unhappy passengers, but the federal rules are set so low and they are losing money so they generally feel its best just to offer the $200 or $400 required as if you were involuntarily bumped (varies by airline). If they also checked your destination more closely and made offers to other passengers competition would hurt more.

I guess when that really picks up I'll come home from a bump run one day and have to say it ended up as a mileage run, but it hasn't happened yet.


[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 10-31-2003).]

FYI...

These are CO's restricted travel dats for award tickets:

2004 Restricted Travel Dates: Jan 2-4; Feb 13, 22; Apr 18; Jul 5; Nov 24, 28-29; Dec 23-24.

You may be able to plan around these dates for a bump run.

Jerry, I'm glad to hear that people think you're psychotic as well... I get that all the time.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Jerry, I'm glad to hear that people think you're psychotic as well... I get that all the time.</font>

You even have the name to prove it.

Now that Galileo is "dead" does this affect the chances of picking a full flight?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Now that Galileo is "dead" does this affect the chances of picking a full flight?</font>

No not really, but it does make it more difficult to look at all fare buckets for a whole day of flights for a city pair on 1 screen.

Itn and others still have alternatives.

It does make it more difficult to do some of the steps mentioned in this thread such as browsing at every friday and sunday's loads to determine patterns, and making movements after a schedule change.

You should book bumps far enough in advance that the cheap fares are still available, knowing that they are at a time of the day that they will fill up.

Here's good news for bump runs:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,101938,00.html

this year travelers had better book flights ahead of time. Airlines, still reeling under a weak economy and fears of terrorism, are limiting the number of airplanes flying in an effort to bring fares back to profitable levels. By cutting back on supply, airlines are hoping to fly with a full house during the holidays.

"Planes are flying more full than we've seen them in about 30 years," said Amy Bohutinksy, a consumer travel expert with Hotwire.com (search). "You're going to find that flights are going to be more expensive and more full as we get closer to the holidays."

The cheap, last-minute online fares of yesteryear are now tougher to find.

"If you see that good fare ... it's time to grab it. You may not see a better one," said Amy Ziff of Travelocity.com. "We're noticing that fares are rising an average of 5 to 8 percent higher than they were last year at this time."

I'm bump running 11/26 and again 12/23 and 12/24 this year for $63 R/T and $113 R/T plus taxes, and these flights including my companions were paid for with bump vouchers.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
The only competition I care about is the ones that volunteer before me on a connection where I can't be at the gate 1 hour before departure</font>

I used to ask to be put on VDB list on all legs during the initial 6 am check-in at the departure/orgin city. United used to do it without any problems. Therefore I never worried what time I would get to the gate in the connecting city.

However, it's been a while since I've done a "bump run", so I am not sure if it is possible any more.
Does anybody know? Can you still be put on the VDB list for all legs at your orgin city?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by smooth:
I used to ask to be put on VDB list on all legs during the initial 6 am check-in at the departure/orgin city. United used to do it without any problems. Therefore I never worried what time I would get to the gate in the connecting city.

However, it's been a while since I've done a "bump run", so I am not sure if it is possible any more.
Does anybody know? Can you still be put on the VDB list for all legs at your orgin city? </font>

I did it on Taca in Panama City Panama this year but it is the only time I have ever been able to. Didn't get the bump in El Salvador but it did cause a first class upgrade.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
I have this particular bump run that I fly on a regular basis for no other reason than to collect bumps. Very simular to the mileage run others do. But I consider mileage runs mindless so I stay for the event, that makes the run that much better and gives me bump chances the heavily traveled day before and after the event.

The last run I took that paid 12X (atually I refigured it with hotel vouchers and meals it was about 16X) fare paid was to a city with lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections, and airfare of about $100 RT plus taxes. Sometimes I take a baby under 2 yrs old and pay for the extra seat, other times I take a friend and on occasion I have been able to use free companion certificates.

I try to book a year in advance while the fare buckets are open. This also helps with being able to change flights because when the winter schedules are changed you have a little flexabilty because the airline needs to change your schedule and you can move to the heaviest flights regardless of low fare bucket availability.

I always book my arrival Hotel and rental cars for seperate days so I don't loose the reservations if I am a no show. Hotels on special event days are expensive so its best to drive an hour to the next town, bring a tent or consider a hostel. I am tempted to park an RV in my bump run town but I haven't figured out the airport transfer and storage.

It takes a huge amount of time to figure out what where an event city with an airline that bumps a lot fitting the above requirements is. Study events, study low fare markets, study the time of day those flights sell out on galileo and let the obsession begin.

The one thing that makes this process luck is that the airlines computer system has all the data to prevent you from figuring out when and where a bump will occur. Their system computes the exact number of seats they can oversell without causing a bump based on the factors they can determine lead to bumps and prior experience. But as with any computer program there are weaknesses and you are trying to guess what those may be. By making triple connections you should be able to overcome the odds. This is the one area I am suprised no FTer or former airline employee has shed much light on. Can we have a former airine computer programer post some code here?


Before you ask that special girl to marry you sounds like you need to ask her opinion on bump runs. It takes a lot to convince an exhausted wife and mother on Sunday night not to go home.

It is also very helpful to have some work or reading in hand to make those long days of triple connections and bumps go quicker.

</font>

I'm not to trying be funny here but it seems like an awful lot of trouble just to fly for free. Why not get a job instead?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Elite Nomore:
I'm not to trying be funny here but it seems like an awful lot of trouble just to fly for free. Why not get a job instead?</font>

don't want to be an "Elite No-More" http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

I am looking for busy days in 2004, but since I am not that familiar with american holidays and school vacations, could someone please point me in the right direction?
Where do you go to find these days?
someone said blackout days at webflyer.com but all i can find in their calender is US Airways?! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

------------------
Viele Grüße

Oliver

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Elite Nomore:
I'm not to trying be funny here but it seems like an awful lot of trouble just to fly for free. Why not get a job instead?</font>

Help wanted: Fly free almost anywhere in the world you want to go, whenever you want to go, with whoever you want to. Some Hotels and meals included. Compensation averages $100 per hour tax free for waiting time plus frequent flyer miles. Applicants must possess a government issued ID if over 18 years of age, Frequent flyer account, and toothbrush. Applicants may reside anywhere in the world. Applicants of any age are eligible but preference is given to those under 2 years of age. You may apply online, by phone or at your nearest ticket counter.

[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 11-04-2003).]

I'll help! But I'm not under two... schucks....

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Germanfflyer:
I am looking for busy days in 2004, but since I am not that familiar with american holidays and school vacations, could someone please point me in the right direction?
Where do you go to find these days?
someone said blackout days at webflyer.com but all i can find in their calender is US Airways?! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif
</font>

Actually varies from state to state and for university, school to school. The most reliable is thanksgiving (4th Thursday of November). Another but less so is around Labor Day (1st Monday of Sept.)

To get an idea of which days Northwest thinks are going to be busy this holiday season, check out the calendar at http://www.nwa.com/features/holiday2.html

"Other days to save"=bump days http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

win1300

I'm going to do my first true bump run... at I'm going to Miami so I can't go wrong. I twisted my girlfriend's arm to come as well. I got this fare on Delta for 200 with tax. It's a Friday and Sunday afternoon. Is this a good run or am I crazy?

Friday, Nov 21
DL 1722 ONT-ATL Dep 1:15 PM
DL 1650 ATL-MIA Dep 9:55 PM

Sunday, Nov 23
DL 356 MIA-ATL Dep 12:45 PM
DL 2224 ATL-SLC Dep 3:50 PM
DL 1984 SLC-ONT Dep 6:40 PM

All this bought with vouchers from my last bump. At least I'll get miles!!

What do you think? How could I be more scientific without Galileo?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
I'm going to do my first true bump run... at I'm going to Miami so I can't go wrong. I twisted my girlfriend's arm to come as well. I got this fare on Delta for 200 with tax. It's a Friday and Sunday afternoon. Is this a good run or am I crazy?

Friday, Nov 21
DL 1722 ONT-ATL Dep 1:15 PM
F9 A9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 K9 L0 U0 T0


DL 1650 ATL-MIA Dep 9:55 PM
F3 A1 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 K9 L5 U0 T0


Sunday, Nov 23
DL 356 MIA-ATL Dep 12:45 PM
F4 A0 Y9 B9 M8 H7 Q0 K0 L0 U0 T0

DL 2224 ATL-SLC Dep 3:50 PM
acn't find that flight but every flight that day shows all 9's
DL 1984 SLC-ONT Dep 6:40 PM
F7 A4 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 K9 L9 U9 T9
All this bought with vouchers from my last bump. At least I'll get miles!!

What do you think? How could I be more scientific without Galileo?</font>


I added the buckets from ITN.NET above.
You could also look at the seat maps on Delta.com

I'm not overly optimistic that flights will be full those days, and if the airlines are selling seats for that price 2 weeks before departure they apparently don't think so either. There is something about the friday before thanksgiving and especially the sunday before thanksgiving that doesn't make for a good mileage run. I think it is that people don't take a lot of leisure travel the weekend before thanksgiving because they will be leaving Wednesday evening to visit family.

The link that was posted to NW sale also shows that friday as a bargain day and that sunday as a super bargain day. Meaning that the airline is looking to discount seats those days because of low loads.

I honestly think you have a below average friday and a far below average sunday picked out. I give you a 50-50 chance of one of your friday flights offering a bump and a 1 in 4 chance on the sunday MIA-ATL flight and next to none on the later flights.

Sounds like you are in a hurry I would be watching more for spring break, holiday weekends etc... for next year.

Enough of that negative stuff. Wow great airfare. If you value miles at 1.5 cents you pretty much have a free trip. Atlanta to MIA/FLL is usually a good bump possibility. Did you realize that you booked in K class and that you will get full status miles on delta for that?


So if you get to Atlanta and they offer you or your girlfriend 1 bump but not 2, are you going to turn it down like a gentleman?

I would go to priceline and book Saturday night only in a fancy hotel and find a cheap motel without a cancellation penalty for friday night.

Good luck


[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited 11-07-2003).]

I agree... I guess I was just a little trigger happy. I didn't purchase the tickets, just reserved them. Thanks for your advice Mr. Crump. Could you please tell me where you found that seating info?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
I agree... I guess I was just a little trigger happy. I didn't purchase the tickets, just reserved them. Thanks for your advice Mr. Crump. Could you please tell me where you found that seating info?</font>

www.itn.net (http://www.itn.net) sign up select advanced.
Had to look at one ways for most of the legs.

How accurate is ITN.net as far as seat availability? Also, I've never done a pure mileage run, but how do they come up with 1.5 or 2 cents as being a good run? That fare from ONT-MIA for $200 with tax is good until last next spring I believe. So I'll book some tickets between now and then. Again, thanks for your advice

Originally posted by I love the bump:
How accurate is ITN.net as far as seat availability?

Who knows, it's probabaly more accurate than Gallileo because I understand Gallileo may not have access to all seats because it is German and may not have access to all the seats. ITN often will not display a flight you want it to though and the output is not as useful because it doesn't give you a straight list of flights is adds lots of fluff.

Also, I've never done a pure mileage run, but how do they come up with 1.5 or 2 cents as being a good run?

What do you use the awards for? When you know that you can divide the value by the miles. There are lots of threads about this.


That fare from ONT-MIA for $200 with tax is good until last next spring I believe.

I think Jan 30.


So I'll book some tickets between now and then. Again, thanks for your advice

I noticed that seats were available Nov 26 and Dec 24 but returns were not as good.

This is exactly the type of sale you want to look for if booking flights in the next few months. It is in K class. It includes Friday and Sunday and it is really cheap per mile. If you wait long that fare will be gone.

I think your most guaranteed run would be Dec 23 returning Dec 24, but I might opt for a fun weekend in Miami with the girlfriend over a few vouchers. also you might try ITASoftware.com to find some more segments.

You didn't answer what you and your girlfriend would do if offered only 1 bump seat?

I guess I was stalling on the girlfriend question... I guess it would be up to her. If she wasn't for it I won't do it. Too much misery would be involved.

The fare actually goes until next Sept. with no blackout days after Jan. it's wide open. Any other suggestions for dates?

I actually got a ticket this time...
Nov.26 ONT - ATL - MIA return
Nov.27 MIA - ATL - DFW - ONT
for 200 with tax (and my girlfriend who thinks I'm totally nuts...)

It looks like the ATL-MIA and ATL-DFW are packed. Wish me luck!

Thanks for all your suggestions.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
I guess I was stalling on the girlfriend question... I guess it would be up to her. If she wasn't for it I won't do it. Too much misery would be involved.

The fare actually goes until next Sept. with no blackout days after Jan. it's wide open. Any other suggestions for dates?

I actually got a ticket this time...
Nov.26 ONT - ATL - MIA return
Nov.27 MIA - ATL - DFW - ONT
for 200 with tax (and my girlfriend who thinks I'm totally nuts...)

It looks like the ATL-MIA and ATL-DFW are packed. Wish me luck!

Thanks for all your suggestions.</font>

Nov 27 Thanksgiving day will be empty, but if you get bumped the previous day you might not even be in Mia to fly that day. You might ask to have your return moved to sat, sun or mon if outbound denied causes you to miss your return.

Look at the Delta 3 for 1 certificates
for heavy travel blackout days and book all of them and you may have started a new career.

Spring break is heavy in MIA Feb 13 through 28th I would fly each friday and sunday in that time period. But I show that fare ends Jan 30.

I just checked again... flights from ONT-MIA are available at that fare all the way until Sept. next year. As for those specific days Fri, Mon through spring break, those fares are available and I think that I'm going to book them today while the fare is still so cheap.

Thanks again.

What have you done in the past when travelling with a significant other and only one seat is available?

I am tempted to buy tickets for every fri-sun to Miami in Feb for the dates that you mentioned. I found them all for $200 bucks. What do you think?

Signifigant others are not the best bump run partners but they are who you want to end up with at the destination. That's why I like traveling with my under 2 year old daughter. She can give up her seat and sit in my lap.

I would buy the spring break seats but go to ITA software put in your search, when the results come back under delta click on 2 stops and book those flights that have 3 legs to increase your chances of bumps.

Have you tried ITASoftware.COM to find 3 leg trips?

Another aspect, as well as going for whole days that will be busy, is that some particular flights tend to be heavily booked. eg. There's a UA flight SFO-SEA in the late morning (its flight number and heaviness of booking depends on the time of year) that is the standard connection for international flights coming into SFO in the morning from SYD, NRT, etc.

If anything happens to the previous SFO-SEA flight, that flight is likely to end up overbooked. If one of the incoming internationals is late, the following SFO-SEA may suddenly become overbooked.

However, I seldom see bumps, as I am usually travelling internationally. So, I want to maximise my chance of upgrading or of having the seat(s) next to me free. I want my planes on those long hauls to be as empty as possible and therefore aim for mid-week departures.

Should I go for busy times on weekends instead to pursue bump possibilities? I'm not sure. It's like mileage runs for me: I incorporate some of the ideas, but I don't do them in their own right.

So, for example, if I want to fly MEL-SFO and UA is selling MEL-MIA for $80 more than MEL-SFO (or the recent MEL-SFO-HNL for $400 less than MEL-SFO!), I'll take the longer run because $80 (or -$400) (+ a hotel stay) is a good deal for 6000 status miles.

Similarly, if I'm flying somewhere and don't care about upgrades, I'll try to pick heavily booked days/times.

However, I've never bought a ticket just for the mileage or just for the bump possibilities. There have been times when it's been kinda close, but I always like to have a purpose to a trip. eg. When UA offered MEL-AKL for $99 return a few years ago, I decided that that was a good time to do a one-week tour of New Zealand.

Are you sure that the Thanksgiving Day flights will be wide open? Two out of my three legs that day looking like they're getting really full esp ATL-DFW.

Nov. 26
DL 1772 ONT-ATL 1:15 PM (full!)
DL 1650 ATL-MIA 9:55 PM (full!)

Return

DL 783 MIA-ATL 9:50 AM (getting there...)
DL 467 ATL-DFW 1:15 PM (pretty full...)
DL 4188 DFW-ONT 3:55 PM (open)

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Kremmen:
Should I go for busy times on weekends instead to pursue bump possibilities? I'm not sure. It's like mileage runs for me: I incorporate some of the ideas, but I don't do them in their own right.

So, for example, if I want to fly MEL-SFO and UA is selling MEL-MIA for $80 more than MEL-SFO (or the recent MEL-SFO-HNL for $400 less than MEL-SFO!), I'll take the longer run because $80 (or -$400) (+ a hotel stay) is a good deal for 6000 status miles.
</font>

On domestic flights you can ususally get friday/sunday flights for $10 to $20 more per way. If you are flexable enough to accept a bump it is well worth paying. However most of the cheapest seats on flights that will cause a bump sell out long before those on midweek flights. So if there is a big difference in available fares or it doesn't fit your needs you probably shouldn't, but if you are flexable enough and have the desire to be bumped I would book as many segments as possible on busy days.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Are you sure that the Thanksgiving Day flights will be wide open? </font>

No, but I suspect the reason some of those flights may have seats sold on them is that Delta has had numerous sales in the last week or so for seats only on low travel dates like 12/25 11/26 etc... These bargan seats should not cause bumps because they are non refundable and yeild management should not heavily overbook a flight with such seats. An Ice storm over Atlanta on 11/26 would change everything, but I don't believe thanksgiving day will normally have as many bumps as an average day.

News reports say that extra flights are not being put on so things could be different this year especially Thursday morning which allows people to make it to an afternoon family meal. But the common wisdom is that leisure travelers don't want to be flying on Thanksgiving afternoon when everyone else is eating Turkey.

Look at ITN the day before and you will have a better idea especially if you compare seat maps to buckets you can sometimes guess how oversold a flight is.

I'm on a jungle jet on 11/26 that shows 1 seat available on a seat map, 3 in ITN and none in etour. That seems to indicate that several reservation didn't choose to get seat assignments or they are not overbooking that flight by many seats possibly because standby's will generate enough revenue that day. It could mean that one guy cancelled with a seat assignment after several booked when no seats were available. I believe is is because they don't overbook small jets by many seats. One gate agent told me they only overbook them by a couple of seats.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
No, but I suspect the reason some of those flights may have seats sold on them is that Delta has had numerous sales in the last week or so for seats only on low travel dates like 12/25 11/26 etc... These bargan seats should not cause bumps because they are non refundable and yeild management should not heavily overbook a flight with such seats. An Ice storm over Atlanta on 11/26 would change everything, but I don't believe thanksgiving day will normally have as many bumps as an average day.

News reports say that extra flights are not being put on so things could be different this year especially Thursday morning which allows people to make it to an afternoon family meal. But the common wisdom is that leisure travelers don't want to be flying on Thanksgiving afternoon when everyone else is eating Turkey.

Look at ITN the day before and you will have a better idea especially if you compare seat maps to buckets you can sometimes guess how oversold a flight is.

I'm on a jungle jet on 11/26 that shows 1 seat available on a seat map, 3 in ITN and none in etour. That seems to indicate that several reservation didn't choose to get seat assignments or they are not overbooking that flight by many seats possibly because standby's will generate enough revenue that day. It could mean that one guy cancelled with a seat assignment after several booked when no seats were available. I believe is is because they don't overbook small jets by many seats. One gate agent told me they only overbook them by a couple of seats.</font>


11/26 is the last day in the year that should be labeled as "low travel date"!

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by MazdaMP:

11/26 is the last day in the year that should be labeled as "low travel date"!</font>

look at the link win1300 posted above

Thanks for all the info Jerry. I was wondering if you or anyone else could help me with my first bump run. I have a $450 voucher good on American, America West, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United, and US Airways. I have to book 21 days in advance (so too late for thanksgiving) and its only good for travel inside the US&Canada. I will be coming out of Albany. I assume around Xmas will be my best option but any suggestions on the itinerary? Also, I want to get at least 1 $250 voucher that's valid on international travel out of this. What are my chances?

TIA

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by Avalon:
Thanks for all the info Jerry. I was wondering if you or anyone else could help me with my first bump run. I have a $450 voucher good on American, America West, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United, and US Airways. I have to book 21 days in advance (so too late for thanksgiving) and its only good for travel inside the US&Canada. I will be coming out of Albany. I assume around Xmas will be my best option but any suggestions on the itinerary? Also, I want to get at least 1 $250 voucher that's valid on international travel out of this. What are my chances?

TIA</font>

I doubt you'll be able to find too many cheap fares, but as Jerry or some one earlier said, the Sunday after X-mas would be a good day to try to get a bump. What you'll want to do is try to find a cheap ticket that routes through a major destination. But before you decide on a carrier, you'll have to determine where you're trying to go internationally and which carrier has the cheapest fares.

I live in the DC area and I know that there are regularly pretty cheap fares b/t ALB and BWI, so I would recommend maybe checking into that, but I don't know about a specific travel date. Depending on your carrier of choice, route through their hub.

Check the Expedia Fare List (http://www.expedia.com/pub/agent.dll?qscr=ftap&rfrr=-983&&zz=1064587928137&&&zz=1068492496769&) for routing rules and stay rules - You would probably have difficulty finding availability for the cheap fares b/c of the travel dates though.

If I were in your situation, before going on a "Bump Run" if my goal were to get at least 250.00 off an int'l ticket and I was willing to spend the 450.00 voucher to get that 250 off an int'l ticket, I'd try the Coupon Connection first.

Edited for HTML tagging & to add that the post below is correct - NW definitley allows it's $$ vouchers to be used on Int'l ticketing, fyi - if you do get a bump, don't accept the free ticket, get the cash voucher!



[This message has been edited by bhatnasx (edited 11-10-2003).]

Some airlines do not let domestic bump vouchers be used towards purchase of international tickets. Search the threads of the airline you are thinking about before expecting this.

Have you ever got bumped on the first leg of your trip and gotten a voucher AND a refund of your ticket? Would an airline go for this?

Let me clarify... Get a voucher first, refund later, and decide not to travel at all?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Let me clarify... Get a voucher first, refund later, and decide not to travel at all?</font>

I seriously doubt that would work because you would have passed the time of departure on your first flight and your reservation record (PNR, right?) has a history of your transaction. You couldn't just book a flight (even if it were a refundable fare), show up, check-in, get a confirmed seat, take a bump voucher, and still attempt to get a refund - that's just scamming and I'm sure the airlines have controls against that.

It's one thing to fly with the intention getting bumped (and give revenue to the airlines) and get bumped, and quite another thing to book a refundable ticket, attempt to get bumped and request a refund after the fact. With any luck on the airline's side, you wouldn't get bumped and then you'd be out a full-fare ticket.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
Let me clarify... Get a voucher first, refund later, and decide not to travel at all?</font>

That is definately an option with involuntary bumps without question. With voluntary bumps everything is open to negotiation.

I have not done that. There are some games that can be played like that, but I don't like the ethics of getting compensation if not planning to fly.

I'm not asking b/c I'm trying to be unethical! On my bump run on 11/26 my flight out of ONT is the last connection to MIA that day. My return is the AM of 11/27, and I have to back on that day. So if I get bumped on the first segment I probably couldn't make the return the next day. That's all. Would they let me reschedule my flight, or give me a travel voucher for the same destination?

i'm sure there are situations that taking the voucher and getting a refund would be both not unethical and approved by the airline.

just like you said, if its the last flight of the night and the trip would be too short to be "enjoyable," the airline might buy your argument that it isn't an urgent trip and you don't "mind" rescheduling to a later date.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
I'm not asking b/c I'm trying to be unethical! On my bump run on 11/26 my flight out of ONT is the last connection to MIA that day. My return is the AM of 11/27, and I have to back on that day. So if I get bumped on the first segment I probably couldn't make the return the next day. That's all. Would they let me reschedule my flight, or give me a travel voucher for the same destination?</font>

I am not trying to judge you or anyone else and your situation appears very logical, but the question was very generic and I know of some very questionalble bumping games that I would not participate in, but are quite legal.

I am flying some simular runs over the holidays and if combined with weather problems that make it appear that I would be stuck in airports for days missing the holiday with my family I would do as you suggested.

Most airlines, this year especially, have very stringent parameters about what they can do about voluntary bumps. However when the airport turns into complete chaos, and bumping is somewhat about chaos, most agents will find a way to do whatever is logical.

I would go so far as to assume you could take 2 segments and 2 bumps, and if the third leg was nearly impossible due to weather they might return you home and rebook the trip.

If your schedule does not allow a bump, then you should not bump. What's so difficult about that ?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by I love the bump:
I'm not asking b/c I'm trying to be unethical! On my bump run on 11/26 my flight out of ONT is the last connection to MIA that day. My return is the AM of 11/27, and I have to back on that day. So if I get bumped on the first segment I probably couldn't make the return the next day. That's all. Would they let me reschedule my flight, or give me a travel voucher for the same destination?</font>



[This message has been edited by izzik (edited 11-11-2003).]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by izzik:
If your schedule does not allow a bump, then you [b]should not bump. What's so difficult about that ?

I don't see anything wrong especially if you point it out to the gate agent before accepting the bump.

Where the real problem comes is where had they known the whole situation they would have chosen another volunteer sometimes I get the feeling the agents get into trouble for accepting a volunteer with complex travel plans remaining. I have been in that situation and the agent stated if they had known they would have taken another volunter.

test

The 3 years before 9/11 my family recieved over 10k of vouchers on delta /since less than 1k

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by hmetal:
The 3 years before 9/11 my family recieved over 10k of vouchers on delta /since less than 1k</font>

For a while after 9/11 planes flew with low load factors. During that time DL lowered it's maximum bump compensation and at one point was the industry leader in involuntary denied boarding because they wouldn't raise their offers they would just make somebody get off involuntarily. They were loosing money so fast they had to do things to stop the massive loss of money even if it caused some passengers to be unhappy. Now that they are flying fewer flights and the loads are higher I don't think your experience is typical especially if you are on Atlantic Southeast the current leader of (low paying) bumps.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by hmetal:
test</font>

you....failed. sorry, try again.

just wanted to bump this. it's a great thread.

Well I'm going to go on three bump runs for the next three weekends. I'm going to try to take advantage of the spring break crowd going to Florida. I have 3 tickets from ONT-MIA bought in November for $158+ . We'll see what happens. I've had horrible luck since my four-bump day...

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
lots of mainline flights, competition by a low cost carrier, the ability to make triple connections,

I try to book a year in advance while the fare buckets are open. </font>

jerry...just a follow-up question:

i am thinking about booking a flight now for the sunday after new year's eve (typically a very busy travel day) from san juan, puerto rico (SJU) to a NYC airport. SJU is serviced by a low fare carrier (jetblue) and i can definitely get some connections on american through either fort lauderdale or miami (or chicago, boston, etc.).

but, i would think that as the day goes on, the flight will become more and more crowded. first, people will want to spend as much time on the beach as possible. second, if there are bumps earlier in the day, some of the people may be rolled over to later flights.

so, booking a triple connection would require a morning/very early afternoon flight where flights may be more empty.

what do you think is more valuable: 1) booking a morning flight with connections or 2) booking an early afternoon flight with fewer connections?

thanks.

FCTSTY - I know you asked your question for Jerry - but I'll give you my unsolicited opinion too...I think that it's better to go with the mid-morning flights and with multiple connections (through as many hubs as possible) to get home from the destination.

My reasoning:

1) Book through hubs for obvious reasons - more people travel through hubs, therefore, by sheer numbers, your odds increase.

2) Mid-morning flights - 1) because no one wants to get up super early to be at the airport while on vacation - 2) No one wants to get home late at night from vacation either and have to work the next day...mid-morning flights will arrive mid-afternoon, or early evening at best

3) My bump luck (and I will call it luck because I feel that there are possible bump runs which are educated guesses & worse case scenario is you get EQM's) is leaving from "oversold" cities in the mid-morning (getting bumped - taking a later flight to the hub city) and connecting in hubs on the evening flights - My recommendation is if you don't really care where you end up that night, bump as much as possible in the "oversold" city. I had an opportunity to make 600.00 in vouchers in one city and could have ended up in that city for the night and would have had to take 2 flights to get home the next morning. Instead, since I knew that the flights were oversold for that evening out of the hub city on my route home, I took a bump in the "oversold" city and took a later flight and took the bump in the hub city (albeit, it was a risk - it wasn't guaranteed, but it was worth taking the chances) - in the end, I ended up with 600.00 in vouchers on a 98.00 flight and only had 1 flight home the next day instead of 2. Also, the other times I've been bumped (out of FLL on NW ticket) - I've gotten single bumps but re-routed through IAH instead of EWR or MEM/DTW to get back to BWI - so the mileage amounts increased.

*********

A little side note...

Looking for major holiday/bumps...what's your feedback?

July 5 - Monday - 4th of July observed

X-mas/New Years runs - The holiday's both fall on weekends, so the Friday before is going to be "day off" from work - looking at travelling on the sunday after?

I'm not sure how I feel about trying a Thanksgiving run - I think it was trvl4free that had a really awesome run a few years back - but last year, it didn't seem like too many people got bumped that its worth trying a "bump" run (unless you're going to a college town with a lot of out-of-state students).

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
My strategy for a bump run is to buy the cheapest seat on busy day 331 days before a flight certain to sell out then for example this in early January buy a triple leg ticket for the Wednesday afternoon before thanksgiving to your bump run city returning Sunday after Thanksgiving. If you don't like the flights you get or the airfare don't worry both will change.</font>

sorry for the follow-up questions.

let's say you book a triple connection both ways. when the schedule changes and you call back to get "better flights," will the live agent allow you to rebook triple connections on heavy flights? doesn't the agent try to get you on the non-stop or one connection?

i could see the agent flagging your record, no?

thanks.

thanks, bhatnasx.

in addition to my question above...one more. sorry.

in an earlier post, jerry said that he always picks the biggest plane when he is deciding between flights. i asked why (since i always pick the smallest non-regional jet such as a 737). i don't think he answered and was wondering if anyone has any thoughts.

i know it's all mathematical meaning, theoretically, the airline's yield system should make it equally likely that there is a bump on a 737 as a 767.

still curious.... thanks.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
thanks, bhatnasx.

in addition to my question above...one more. sorry.

in an earlier post, jerry said that he always picks the biggest plane when he is deciding between flights. i asked why (since i always pick the smallest non-regional jet such as a 737). i don't think he answered and was wondering if anyone has any thoughts.

i know it's all mathematical meaning, theoretically, the airline's yield system should make it equally likely that there is a bump on a 737 as a 767.

still curious.... thanks.</font>

Equipment downgrades. You want the plane that they're selling as a big plane and are likely to downgrade. Last thing you want is to buy a seat on a 737, then 60 days out, they switch it to a 757. You'd rather they sold 200 seats for a 757 on a peak day, then switch for a 737.

He's going to have to answer his own logic on that one. I never have considered the size of the plane. I guess one way of looking at it is that if the airline chooses a bigger plane for a particular route, it means it's got more passengers that fly that route at that time of the day. A smaller plane doesn't require as many passengers. I agree with your logic - however I've never even thought about it - my bumps haven't been based on anything but "vacation" logic. I've only been bumped from DC-9's & DC-10's - but that's pretty much all NW flies on my routes.

I think his logic may be the bigger the plane, the more they oversell by and the less opportunity they have to "trade-up" and swap equipment to a bigger plane. Which actually makes sense to me. (Channa - you beat me to it! - Also, thanks for helping me with the FLL routing last year - your routing got me the bumps!)

I'll explain what I mean when I say "vacation" logic - basically - I've never had a weekday bump - only weekend bumps. My experience in bumps has been warm destination going home at the end of vacation. I've been bumped from FLL-EWR and FLL-MEM in October & November - these were single bumps on CO/NW (respectively). For each one, it was a Sunday flight (trying to get back to BWI) and it was departing between the 11AM-1PM time frame. I was re-booked on evening flights FLL-IAH-EWR on CO both times (and upgraded once for the IAH-EWR leg - that was before Silver Status).

Interestingly, with my NW flight, the original routing was FLL-MEM-DTW-BWI and the FLL-MEM and the DTW-BWI were both oversold (the check-in agent told me - I always check-in online & still ask the gate agents or call the nice people at reservations).

Hope this helps some...


[This message has been edited by bhatnasx (edited Feb 10, 2004).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by channa:
Equipment downgrades.</font>

interesting. thank you.

xmas is on a saturday this year. do you think dec. 24 will be as busy a travel day as usual or will people have the day off and travel on dec. 23 instead?

just trying to plan....

thanks.

My office & most people I know in the DC area will have the 24th off as an observed holiday - I think a lot of people are going to fly out on the 22nd & 23rd.

A little thing that may help is looking at airline blackout dates - for example, NW's got a new promo where the award is a free ticket in Y if you fly 3 in v-class or above. The free ticket has the following blackout dates - so those are expected high revenue - high leisure travel dates.

Blackout dates: 2004: November 23, 24, 28-30; December 18, 19, 21-24, 26-31. 2005: January 1-3; February 11-15, 17-21; March 11-13, 18-20, 25-28; April 1-3.

thank you, bhatnasx. so, i guess the verdict is that outbound before xmas will be more spread out this year.

wonder where jerry has gone....hopefully somewhere warm.

Delta makes you pay a fee as well.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by USCGamecock:
Delta makes you pay a fee as well.</font> ???

No problem FCTSTY!

Hi all! Wife and I are flying to Hawaii for spring break...some time ago managed to snag award tickets in first class, but had to take a rather peculiar routing...

Going is just fine...
IAH-LAX-HNL on CO/DL on 3/13.
Coming home though is weird (though also would make a great mileage run if I were earning miles http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif )...
HNL-MSP-ATL-IAH on NW/DL on 3/19-20.

I have tried repeatedly to clean up the routing but there is no availability. Now I'm beginning to be glad for what I have...because...

HNL-MSP shows only Y2 in coach.
Both MSP-ATL and ATL-IAH show no availability in coach!
In fact, for the MSP-ATL route on Delta, five consecutive flights (the three prior and the one following) are unbookable in coach!

Wow!! Now...I know Murphy's Law means that since I am bragging about this on FlyerTalk, there will be no bumps available! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

But we can hope...I'll let you know.

(By the way I added a post under Suggestions asking consideration for a Bumping forum!)

Good luck with the bump - you're going during primetime for college & highschool spring breaks - so families may be going to HNL together. Just make sure you're willing to be flexible.

watchful: don't check bags if you want a bump. looks like a great routing. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

Well...with a week in HNL that won't be happening! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif But we only live a few miles from IAH so no problem going back to pick up our checked bags.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
watchful: don't check bags if you want a bump. looks like a great routing. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif</font>

Don't get too excited about a HNL bump. Flights back and forth were pack to capacity. I flew HNL-MSP the day after the Pro Bowl and no luck on bump. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif YMMV

------------------
Please click daily and help those less fortunate at www.thehungersite.com (http://www.thehungersite.com)

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
wonder where jerry has gone....hopefully somewhere warm.</font>

I've been laying low in shame since Thanksgiving and Christmas on this thread. I did unsuccessful bump runs the day before Thanksgiving and Dec 23-24. I broke so many rules that I deserved the failures. I flew a 2 segment RT on RJs for Thanksgiving and though 4 of my 5 Christmas flights were heavily overbooked the chips just didn't fall right, last moment misconnects blew them all and my bump run companion had a family emergency and didn't cancel his reservations.

I think the biggest reason for failure was that I wasn't flying on days when business travelers who are very often no shows fly. Anyway I was flying on their money so no real loss.

Next bump run will be the Kentucky Derby. Last year I did quite well on the Bumps and even bet on Funny Cide. I'll be wearing the red Arkansas Razorback plastic molded pig hat in the infield if anyone else is there.

For warmth I'm headed to Costa Rica on those $150 RT fares that TACA puts out around Christmas every year.

Thanks for asking.


Also I noticed I failed to reply to a some questions directed to me. I thought this thread was dead and haven't seen it in a while.

Someone asked whether to take 2 afternoon or 3 all day connections. I choose the 3 all day unless the first is before 7 AM because it's is so random that you are better increasing your odds with more flights, rather than thinking you can outsmart the airlines computer on just 2 flights. Also you will still get 2 afternoon flights on that busy day.

Another unanswered question was about why I choose the largest plane. I like the answer someone credited to me about downgrades, but I have never been bumped on downgrades and I don't think it is any where near as common as routine bumps, so I can't take credit for that answer.
I choose the biggest plane because I never call anything a bump run unless I am fairly certain that every flight that day will be overbooked to capacity and that basically there will be no seats available for sale in the 3 city pairs from mid morning through mid evening. On such days there is so much more that can go wrong on a 200 seat plane booked to 240 than on a 100 seat plane booked to 120. I basically am betting that the airline can not guess 40 people will no show as well as they can guess 20 people will no show. Also if there are bumps on both, there should be twice as many on larger planes increasing my odds that I will be one of them. It's kinda like doubling down in blackjack. More than anything I'm really just trying to avoid RJ's because of lower compensation and very limited overbooking.
If you are not flying on a blackout type date you may be better to take the 737 over the 767 because the 767 is less likely to fill up on a typical day.

The other question I haven't answered was about reservation agents flagging your record when the schedule changes and trying to put you on a nonstop. This has never been my experience in regard to schedule changes. Even if they initially change you to something you don't like they have always let me have my pick of flights that day. I have had that problem on initial reservation calls in which I don't give out my ff number and just call back in the middle of the night when I'm more likely to catch a reservation center in India. Also some airlines have special desk that reschedules after a schedule change. I assume their job is so chaotic they don't try to make waves, but in any case I have never had that problem on a reschedule. I also stand ready blame the inflexibility on my travel companion who told me to get these certain flights so I can't change anything until I get back to that person.

I hope everyone has a bumpy year in 2004.




[This message has been edited by jerry crump (edited Feb 26, 2004).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
I think the biggest reason for failure was that I wasn't flying on days when business travelers who are very often no shows fly.</font>

jerry,

thanks for your replies. very good info. and, yes, i think your lack of a bump is all about luck, or lack thereof. after all, while there is skill involved in the planning, it really comes down to luck (misconnects, people get to the airport early and somehow get on an earlier flight, etc.).

with regard to the comment above, don't you mean that you DID fly on days with business travelers that don't show up? and, they didn't show up which is why you weren't bumped. since you weren't bumped, this statement seems counterintuitive.

on the other hand, i would think it would be good to fly with business travelers because in many cases they won't volunteer since: 1) they need to get somewhere or 2) they travel so much and have so many miles they don't need the compensation.

but, just wanted to see if you could clarify your statement above. and, glad to see you are well.

by the way, jerry, what do you think about flying xmas 2004? december 23 or december 24 for outbound? thx.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
with regard to the comment above, don't you mean that you DID fly on days with business travelers that don't show up? and, they didn't show up which is why you weren't bumped. since you weren't bumped, this statement seems counterintuitive.

but, just wanted to see if you could clarify your statement above. and, glad to see you are well.

by the way, jerry, what do you think about flying xmas 2004? december 23 or december 24 for outbound? thx.</font>

I meant that I think most of the Dec 23-24 travelers this year were leisure travelers and if you are looking for bumps you need flights with more business travelers booked on them.

I haven't looked at Christmas this year yet.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jerry crump:
I haven't looked at Christmas this year yet.</font>

thanks.

i would have thought your xmas would already be purchased. isn't the rule-of-thumb to purchase tix as far ahead as possible so that you can maximize schedule changes. and, when the schedules change, you can look at seat buckets and moved to the most packed flights? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

anyway, if you look into it, maybe you can report back. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

thanks again.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by fly co to see the yanks:
thanks.

I would have thought your xmas would already be purchased. isn't the rule-of-thumb to purchase tix as far ahead as possible so that you can maximize schedule changes. and, when the schedules change, you can look at seat buckets and moved to the most packed flights? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

anyway, if you look into it, maybe you can report back. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

thanks again.</font>

Bump runs are a hobby. Marriage and family sometimes get in the way of hobbies. There are probably 20 good blackout dates per year, 52 fridays, 52 sundays, a half dozen 3 day weekends, and dozens of events that make for good bump run days. I would doubt that I make bump runs this Christmas because there is a chance of overseas inlaws coming to visit. (I don't think I can explain to them why I'm leaving them and the family for a couple of days) It's tough enough to explain in english.

Anyway the 331 day double schedule change is good. (actually) 6 to 9 months usually gives the same result unless the lowest fare buckets are already sold out. But that is just one technique. (Sometimes the lowest buckets aren't even for sale that far out) I did do this for the 2004 KY Derby, but right now I think I'm more in the mood for fare sale watching.

What happened to MR "I love the bump" I thought you were out on spring break bump runs?

Anything to report?

hey all,

I have a flexable ticket on United $100 to change, good for a year, as long as a coach seat is available. The routing is CDG-ORD-GRB. I was going to change my date from June 6th to the end of August, do you know of any good dates to travel at the end of August like the 18-23rd if I am looking for a bump.

TIA

Timo

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by timo469:
hey all,

I have a flexable t