Interesting info here, but the analysts don't sound very encouraging:

"The next 30 to 90 days are crucial," says Blaylock & Partners airline analyst Ray Neidl, who has followed US Airways for 20 years. "Without drastic additional cost cuts, I give them little or no chance of survival."

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2004-01-25-usairways_x.htm

No, it doesn't look good.

I'm looking at 320K and wondering what to do with them. I offered to send my sil and her bf to Europe and they turned me down!

Maybe a quick trip someplace warm?

I just hope US can make it thru the end of May. We have award tickets to Ireland that have us returning then....plus another 400K miles (320K mine and 80K Mrs. MileKing) to use.

I have Award Guard, but I have to imagine Randy is not feeling too good about US' prospects right about now. I don't see any other carrier coming in to save Dividend Miles.

I'd say that United would love to pick up about 10,000 CPs and some Gold preferreds...

I would imagine, come June load factors should improve due to the summer travel season. At UA, the first months of 2003 were the most crictical as well.

To answer USA Today's headline:

Because the only thing that they restructred was the debt. It's still the same old airline with the same old business model on the same old road to no profits.

This kind of publicity just feeds on itself. Presumably, it has an impact on the sale of future travel. Let's face it. The place is in a weakened state, some of it self inflicted. Every bargain basement carrier in the industry has targeted them, and the management, to the extent it matters, thinks the only thing that will save them is cutting the pay of the people whose job is to provide the front line interface with the customers. Not particularly where you want to be in business.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by cesco.g:
I would imagine, come June load factors should improve due to the summer travel season. At UA, the first months of 2003 were the most crictical as well.</font>

Load factors are high, around 77%. The problem is on the revenue side; they're filling planes with cheap seats. The current model of pricing is the problem; they refuse to yield the people to whom price is everything, but still keep trying to gouge the last-minute and business traveler while steadily reducing the amenities that differentiated the legacy carriers from the low cost carriers. It's a failed business model and it will not work at US any more than it will work anywhere else.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by us2:
Load factors are high, around 77%</font>

If yoy think about it (remembering that half the week is a wasteland and always will be...) that's such a high load factor that it means that they have to be turning away people for lack of capacity during peak periods.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">... It's a failed business model and it will not work at US any more than it will work anywhere else.</font>

I think that a big part of the reason that US clings to it so stubbornly is that it worked better for them than it did anyone else -- if you look at that unisys study that was posted last week it shows lots of bad things about US. But one interesting thing was that, while it was working, they were the all time champion gougers -- by far.

Sorry folks but the writing is on the wall..


The US labor rules dictate that US will have the highest costs because the only folks still working have 20+ years and they get paid that way. Say bye-bye- to our favorite airline because the LCC are gonna eat them up. It sux because a lot of good people will be on the street and a good airline will go bye-bye.

It's a shame because US could be the best with the right cost structure... http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

[This message has been edited by geo1005 (edited Jan 26, 2004).]

although i havent flown US in a few years (territory changed, easier to fly ewr and CO), this would be one airline death that alot of people wouldnt miss in reality. whatever worthwhile routes they run will be picked up by someone else. take all the money normally assigned to bailout US and put it into trains between the major cities (eg nyc/dca/bos). has anyone ridden amtrak recently? i am a plat on CO and love the train for short hops. do i want to go to ORD on the train - no.

US has outlived its ability to provide cost effective service on short runs. better done by the south wests of the world or amtrak. once phl is overrun then it is goodby to US

now if i could only figure out what to do with that 150,000 miles that i have

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by BigLar:
No, it doesn't look good.

I'm looking at 320K and wondering what to do with them. I offered to send my sil and her bf to Europe and they turned me down!

Maybe a quick trip someplace warm?</font>

I'll gladly let you spend those miles on me! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

Don't give up just yet!

This company has dodged more arrows over the years than General Custer himself and remained in business.

To me the past management was clueless and short sighted. The current team, while not world class IMO at least has one or two clues about how to run a business.

The REAL Problem is time and Cash of which they have little of either. So for now I will keep the faith.

Surely Dave Siegel and US management are doing everything possible to get US employees and their families to pressure Pennsylvania and Philadelphia politicians not to give any more gates at PHL to Southwest. That would help US survive until conditions improve.

As Delta has survived despite ValuJet (oops, I mean Airtran) invading Delta's Atlanta hub, surely there must be a remote possibility that US could do the same at PHL.

As long as they continue to alienate the two groups they need the most (employees and loyal customers), they don't have a chance.

Service and quality continue to slide, and they keep harassing the employees (taking chairs out of hangars, etc.).

Without a happy front line or loyal customers in the seats, they don't have a prayer.

And the management is generating all the negative press, causing many people to book away!

I am beginning to believe that their plan actually IS to drive it into the ground.

Sad sad sad...the fat lady is finally approaching the stage.



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IT'S THE FARES, STUPID!!

Regards,

Art at ISP

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by NYCommuter:
Surely Dave Siegel and US management are doing everything possible to get US employees and their families to pressure Pennsylvania and Philadelphia politicians not to give any more gates at PHL to Southwest. That would help US survive until conditions improve.</font>

As a former PIT resident, I'm glad that the state and city of PHL realized that there is life after US and are working to get LUV gates at PHL. What Little Dave fails to realize is that he cannot kick the state in the nutz in the west and expect a bailout at PHL.

Further, PHL cannot play favorites with the airport gate leases. It's against the law, and they will lose a boatload of federal dollars if Southwest complains.


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Don't feed the trolls.

"Further, PHL cannot play favorites with the airport gate leases. It's against the law, and they will lose a boatload of federal dollars if Southwest complains."

Then the law should be changed. I'm just pretty bummed about this; I count on US for my commute from NY to see my family because it has a great schedule and decent fares for my commute; other big airlines do the same trip through distant hubs at twice the price, and taking Southwest-- to me, not much better than a flying version of the NY subway-- is unthinkable.


[This message has been edited by NYCommuter (edited Jan 27, 2004).]

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ClueByFour:
Further, PHL cannot play favorites with the airport gate leases. It's against the law</font>

Can you point me towards that law?