I've been mulling over which airline to switch to after US goes under. I was considering CO or NW, but since they eliminated their off-peak award, I am going to go with DL. They don't have an off-peak award either, but they don't require Saturday night stays for award tickets and they'll fly you to HNL for 30k. Comparing availability of awards on NW and DL it seems pretty clear that the Saturday night stay makes availability of flights on Sunday very low, making it difficult to book a ticket with a Sunday return, and difficult to book a ticket with a return on some other day (for short trips) because of the Saturday night stay requirement. For example, to book a flight leaving one weekend and returning the following weekend is dififcult on NW, but easy on DL.

Of course, award redemption isn't everything, there is status to consider as well... in this regard I think NW may have DL beat, but I am frustrated at not being able to redeem my miles and with DL I am fairly confident that I will be able to.

The fact that I already have status with DL is only a small part of my thinking. If NW eliminated the Saturday night stay requirement for their award tickets, I would definitely choose them over DL (maybe I should post that over on the Northwest board...)

Hmmmm. I'm not going to make any comments about who is to blame for the $millions$ being lost daily by US Airways.

But, if it looks like she's going under...

AA for me. More Room Throughout Coach will have to do until I can build up enough miles for upgrades. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/wink.gif

I'm going to have to wait and see who ends up with which pieces of their route system since right now no other one airline (or alliance of airlines) adequately covers my personal travel patterns. Delta may currently be closest, but American would also be in the running if I didn't mind all of the RJ routes they run out of RDU (but I DO mind). On the other hand, this may all change if I move somewhere else when I retire.

[This message has been edited by rtpflyer (edited 03-13-2002).]

Living in WAS, I imagine it will be UA. However, I've had quite a few bad experiences on them, and would prefer AA. Will have to see if UA has substantially more flights than AA. tls

I'm a 1K on UA now (w/ 60k YTD miles). After I hit 100k and requalify for 1k, I'm gonna go and see what AA has to offer. It's gonna be a rough year, but I think hitting both 1k and ExecPlt is a definite possibility.

Even after an airline goes bankrupt they usually find a way to keep flying for a while.. so I'll keep flying for a while and see if I can end up on their last flight... I talked with a guy a few days ago who was on the last flight on Branff and didn't even know it till he got off the plane. That's a good icebreaker at FT get togethers http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

I'll hedge my bets that US Airways will still be here a year from now.

I would have said that until I read about the pilot's decision to refuse to let US switch to RJs. It's almost like they *want* to kill US. Is there some way they could benefit financially if US went under?

US still covers the Northeast regional routes like nobody's business and I can't see AA, CO, or NW flying to places like ITH, ELM, etc even after a potential U bankruptcy.

I really think talk of a bankruptcy is premature. U is still pretty cash rich and recently secured a new $800M line of credit.

But they are still burning cash and mortgaged up to their necks. The cash will last them a while (I just bought a ticket on them for July, to use up my SWUs, so I believe they will be around at least that long), but they can't lose money forever and continue to stay in business. I don't believe they are viable long-term without the switch to RJs. I have believed in US for a long time, even though things have looked bad. But the pilots won't see reason and I no longer think US has any long-term chance of survival. I am continuing to book on US for now, but am going to start liquidating my miles and shifting some business elsewhere to prepare for the end. I had been planning on accumulating enough miles for two business class tickets on Qantas, but I don't think US will be around long enough for me to redeem them. I do think they will be around long enough that if I start spending miles now I can aim for a zero balance when they go under. In the current environment I don't think anyone would buy them, they'd probably get sold piecemeal, and that means it'd be unlikely that we could keep our miles.

As for service to all those little northeastern cities, people there are going to have a long drive to the airport once US is gone. You're right, no one is going to replace them in most of those markets.

If it was my choice, AA. But my employer has deep discounts with US, UA and DL. Being in PHL, I'm 99% US. If they went under, I'd have to hope that maybe we negotiate something with AA.

I've been flying CO regularly and will reach 25K miles by the first of April which gets me Silver. Can't decide if I'll keep flying them or not after that, although I've had great service. I have to admit that I really miss US, though. I racked up 30K miles on US in January through mid-February and then switched to CO. Nothing beats the service I;m accustomed to on US, though. With almost 2 million miles on them, they know me at BWI and DCA, as well as the CLT and PHL Clubs, which I have no access to flying CO. I hope they're around awhile, cause I'm sho nuff gonna miss em!

I'm going to miss them, too. When I flew them on Monday the passengers next to me were complaining, claiming they were the worst airline they have ever flown. I was thinking, "They're out of their minds!", and that was after they refused to feed me in F (see "Denied food" thread). These passengers seemed to prefer AA, who I never fly, mostly because going up the east coast from ATL on AA is out of the question.

Service on US is by far the best of any domestic airline I have flown. I admit I haven't had much experience on foreign airlines. I can say definiteively that they are much much much better than China Eastern (don't ask how I ended up on a China Eastern flight).

Everyone on the NW and DL boards love to complain about those airlines, while people here usually talk about how much they like US. My experiences on other airlines generally haven't been bad, but they aren't US.

You know, my girlfriend often flies BOS-DTW. She agrees that US provides, by far, the best service. She hates NW. She complains about their prices, their service, and countless other things. She jokes that a connecting flight on US will be faster than a nonstop on NW. So, who does she fly? NW. I have never understood this, despite having asked her about it many times. If you hate NW and love US, why do you always fly NW on BOS-DTW? The answer, of course, is that NW flies BOS-DTW nonstop. I point out that there is no law saying you have to take a nonstop and if NW is really as bad as she says and US is as good as she says, wouldn't she be better off trading a nonstop for vastly better service? To which she says, "But it's a nonstop."

My conclusion:

There are two kinds of people on airplanes: normal people and flyertalkers. Normal people only care about minimizing time on the plane and the price of the ticket. Flyertalkers somehow become convinced to do things like take indirect routings to increase FF miles, spend more time on the plane than at their destination, fly to places and never leave the airport, just for the miles, and last, but not least, the famous Baht run. We also care about service.

My girlfriend, I submit, is in the first category, while I (and presumably everyone reading this) is in the second. I have never done a Baht run, or done a *pure* mileage run (turning around without leaving the airport), but I have gone places just for the miles, chose routings because of the miles, and know minutiae about maximizing miles. My poor girlfriend asked whether I sent her flowers a couple days ago for the miles (no, I didn't do it for the miles, although of course I did get miles...)

My point is this: for most people, service doesn't matter. They complain if it's bad, but it doesn't upset them enough to switch airlines. Since customers don't value service, it's no wonder US is an exception in providing it. The market supplies what customers demand.

Sorry but I just don't see a bankruptcy anytime in U's near future and even if it should come to pass, would not necessarily mean anything other than the usual reorganization, etc. I'm certainly not going to help it along by switching my business to inferior carriers in the meantime. U is not an America West type carrier that sits in the perennial airline doghouse.

UA is still in deeper sh*t than US despite being more than 3 times its size. US isn't anymore mortgaged/leveraged then CO. Then there is still the Federal loan money to fall back on as a complete last resort.

I still think the "Jets for Jobs" RJ agreement will happen. But there is a lot of posturing and politics going on because there is a lot at stake for all involved. 300-400 regional jets is a very tall order. Make or break time...

How do you figure that UA is in deep trouble - deeper than US? While UA has a LOT of issues to deal with, its assets are NOT fully leveraged. US's are. UA has well over $1B in cash. US does not. UA has a complete route network. US does not.

I could go on, but you get the point....

I'm a little surprised by this topic. As Randy wrote in his February 2002 Mileage Makeover, (http://www.webflyer.com/mimo/frmimo.htm) he has miles in US - among others - and isn't heading for the hills just yet.

geo, chexfan, and phl apparently have been vaccinated against md-80's, bistro bags (BARF-O-RAMA), big hair, and involuntary multi-hour emplaned imprisonment on the DFW ramp.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Mentioned in different ways by three posters:
If it was my choice, AA.</font>

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ATC:
geo, chexfan, and phl apparently have been vaccinated against md-80's, bistro bags (BARF-O-RAMA), big hair, and involuntary multi-hour emplaned imprisonment on the DFW ramp.

</font>

Wait! I'm sure I've been vaccinated too!! But I don't get the big hair part???? http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

Check out the odd fine scrape marks on the ceiling above any American Airlines aisle. the ones that look like they were made with steel wool?

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by svpii:
...I don't get the big hair part????

</font>

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif That would be Miss Texas Hair !

Should Dingo burn his miles pronto? How likely is this?

Already started doing this. I've got roughly 25k miles booked on AA in the next few months (largely because US waited to match some nice transcon fares ex-PIT, and when they offered a sale they were still $100+ more than AA).

That said, I'll gun for silver again on US this year (can't stand the thought of flying from PIT without some US status). I'll then move to AA if the crap hits the fan, on the theory that it is either them or UA. AA has MRTC. UA has lost me or my luggage on every UA flight I've been on since 1989. A no brainer http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif.


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Saving the world, one clue at a time.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by ClueByFour:
UA has lost me or my luggage on every UA flight I've been on since 1989. A no brainer http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif.
</font>

So is

A) Choosing AA a no brainer?
B) Flying UA a no-brainer?
C) All of the above?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by jonesy565:
Sorry but I just don't see a bankruptcy anytime in U's near future

UA is still in deeper sh*t than US despite being more than 3 times its size. US isn't anymore mortgaged/leveraged then CO. Then there is still the Federal loan money to fall back on as a complete last resort.
</font>

Have you seen U's shareholder equity? http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/u/u_qb.html

UAL's stockholders equity is positive. http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/u/ual_qb.html

And CAL is less leveraged than U. http://biz.yahoo.com/fin/l/c/cal_qb.html

I'd say U's days are numbered unless management can work out an agreement with the pilots for RJ's and get the yields/traffic up.

With the fur thats flying amongst the ALPA, the CWA, and management at US (see Dave Siegel's comments about future pay rates and possible concessions), my hopes that US will continue as a going concern are fading.

I wonder if the analysis of which FF program one should switch to should be based on the number of F class seats that aircraft have in each plane type. UA looks downright terrible. CO looks OK good. AA looks good. NW looks OK but their fleet seems to be changing. DL looks "ish".

I guess I would then add the number of elites each program has. Anybody have numbers on this?

I guess it would depend on who sets up shop in CLT before I would decide what carrier to use. As everyone knows, US only has a 99.999% share now (I know I'm exaggerating, but only by a few percent) and when they go under, non-stop will be a distant memory for this airport. I would chose AA if no one sets up a mini-hub in CLT.

I agree with planeluvr. As a PHL-originating pax, I will, at the very least, wait to see who picks up the slack here... which, considering the large O+D traffic PHL supposedly has, someone will undoubtedly will. Most likely though, if and when US goes under, I won't even bother with loyalties and simply fly based on price and convenience.

In the meantime, I'll enjoy the perks and free upgrades as a CP for the time being.

<font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Originally posted by planeluvr:
I guess it would depend on who sets up shop in CLT before I would decide what carrier to use. As everyone knows, US only has a 99.999% share now (I know I'm exaggerating, but only by a few percent) and when they go under, non-stop will be a distant memory for this airport. I would chose AA if no one sets up a mini-hub in CLT.</font>


That's assuming that AA expands at least marginally in CLT ... currently AA does not have service to MIA from CLT, that's a non-starter IMHO ...

DL would be a natural to step in at CLT (though not as a hub, but I bet we'd see an hourly shuttle to ATL or pretty darn close to that level of service).

I just want to add my opinion that even if US were to cease operations, certain assets will be sold, and the CLT hub would likely be one of those, nothing's changed the fact that UA could still use the CLT hub and the UA and US fleet should be pretty compatiable (planewise they are, don't know about engines ...). The Shuttle would also be sold in one piece, and the DCA operations should garner a pretty penny from one or two or more suitors.

I like others do really wish that US will stay afloat. The financials are against them and they have been on crutches lately with no partner to lean on.

Hypothetically speaking, if they do go bankrupt, I guess I would fly Swiss. Unlike US, they worked out a great codeshare agreement and could possibly be in OneWorld one day. Best of all, they have already been through bankruptcy already. ;o)

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"Fly me to the moon and let me earn alot of miles."

Restructuring, yes. Disappearance? No way. I believe US Airways will be here one year from now......maybe merged, and maybe even keeping the name...I mean, "US AIRWAYS" is a pretty darn good name....but no one will ever convince me that there is a conceivable model for this airline to simply "cease operations".
Bankruptcy is an option....and the new president is certainly experienced with bankrupt airlines and their turnarounds.....but even with an 11, US isn't going anywhere.
If it does file 11, expect lots of mileage bonuses and perks for all the US1's, 2's, and 3's to keep flying.
I'm proud of my 500K US miles and plan on earning many, many more.

Not knowing a hell of a lot about the financial situation of US I don't want to sound like a prat but I never ever ever thought AN would go under - inspite of the amount of money being lost by them on a daily basis. After being burnt points wise when they went under my new policy so far as miles go is to no longer accumulate my miles and enjoy watching the balance grow but enjoy drinking a nice red wine at 33000ft after having paid nothing for the flight (no champagne for me - im to cheap to fly C or F!).

Lehman Bros recently told their customers that they're moving USAirways to "Strong Buy".

Wanna know why?

Strong route base.
New chairman (who used to run CO Express).
Government loans still possible.
Number six carrier in the USA.
AND...
Because folks like you are running for the hills and dumping their shares, sending them to near-record lows. Just a year ago there was still talk of U being acquired and the shares were trading near $40. Today? How's $6.50 grab ya?

Wait for the pilots to sign the agreement (hey, who DOESN'T play hardball in negotiations?), and watch the value of U back up to it's pre-9/11 price of $13 within a couple of weeks.

So you go ahead and continue thinking that everything is going to pot and that you're the only ones smart enough to realize it. Just remember - sometimes the emperor isn't trying to fool anyone; he just likes to walk around naked.

CLE, you've made very valid points. But your success scenario is based on one little thing - the pilots signing that RJ deal.

Given that there are no negotiations even scheduled to resume, given that NW, CO, and DL are announcing new RJ routes on a daily basis, and given the mood of a lot of US employees is to not negotiate a single thing until Steven Wolf is dead doesn't give me much comfort.

Does anyone really think of the RJ agreement as a 'yes' or 'no' thing? I have consistently seen it as 'how many can we agree to'. Three or four months ago (with hated Wolf in command) I remember there being a proposal FROM THE PILOTS for 150-180 RJs. Of course, there was some language about not laying off pilots, etc, that was unacceptable to Wolf, but as pointed out above, that's why you negotiate. If you go to the table with a proposal that the other side accepts, you bid too low.