muishkin

No magic about it. Just math is required. But you do need a lot of data that is only available to AA. You need a good idea of the EQD distribution of the EXPs on the routes that you fly, the average number of free F seats available on those routes, the average number of EXPs per flight on those routes, the average $ benefit that you get from upgrading to F on those routes, and from that, you can built an a cost/benefit curve and from looking at the inflection point (s) of the cost/benefit curve, you have your candidate point(s) of diminishing return.

Until you have that data or figure out some ways of estimating that data accurately, you have nothing more than random speculation.

CloudCoder

Facts which make it harder for the hobbyist and/or self-employed to upgrade nowadays:

• New aircraft have a smaller percentage of FC seats. Example: MD80 has 16, Airbus has 8.
• Promotion of CK as a bona-fide level (which the hobbyist can never reach)
• Upgrades now prioritized by 12-month spend
• Airline mergers put more members (at every level) into the same program.

Result: today we have more competition for fewer upgrade seats.

kb9522

Weird. It's like the loyalty program was designed to maximize revenue streams from sources that account for the largest portion of revenue.

rjw242

People love to make this point while ignoring the fact that flights and premium seats available to members also increase.

Dave Noble

I think that the important thing is that the rebate programmes are not a game, but a reward for making a purchase

What was really screwed was a rebate programme that could be returning rebates at a higher value than the price of the original purchase ; this seems to have been addressed in many cases

If used as a basis of (a) needing to go from A-B and (b) a particular carrier being the best value then (c) the earning of miles etc is the outcome of the travel. No magic or game involved

TSparky

You mean before the mergers the flights were just as full as they are now?

rjw242

Not that I actually said that, but yeah, industry load factors are the same now as they were when AA and US merged in 2013.

CloudCoder

Once upon a time, over 20 years ago, I was top-level on Delta. Then Delta changed their program so that Fare Dollars trumped all other factors for upgrades. I looked around for an airline which would value my self-employed el-cheapo mile equally the same as they value the fat-cat-corporate-expense-account mile. That's why I switched to AA.

As we all know, AA went along with the other airlines, and now it's all about the dollars. Well, actually, my business has prospered over the last few decades, so I'm happy to compete in dollars.

Except I can never reach the top rung of the ladder. And the corporations get a discounted rate which makes me compete with full-list-price dollars while they compete with net-after-discount dollars.

If I could find an airline which values my business, I'd switch yesterday (just like I switched decades ago). It's completely understandable that AA wants all the Corporate Expense Account business they can get. It's also understandable that I want to at least have a shot at earning all the benefits. Under the current program, I can earn some (but never all) of the benefits, no matter how much I fly.

Dave Noble

Yes you can - just fly enough and spend enough - AA is not stopping you from travelling more

Corporate travellers do not just fly for the sake of it , but due to need to travel

The airlines do value your business - just that they value it more now based on what is spent rather than distance travelled

bustraveler

I have thought a lot about the new program. I am a 75% corporate flier. And almost all of my tickets are booked within a week of travel. Under the previous program it was very frustrating to have a high dollar fare being trumped on the upgrade list by someone at the same level as me that had requested an upgrade before me. So the $150 Exec Plat ticket purchased months ago would get upgraded before the $700 Exec Plat ticket purchased 6 days ago. AA changed program rules to fix this via EQD upgrade priority. Just as other airlines did. Same concept with cheap mileage runs now earning less elite qualification miles.
AA is a corporation. They exist to make money. The changes were smart for their business. For me, those changes have been beneficial.

The changes that have been adverse to all EP's is the SWU drop from 8 to 4. I believe this is a function of the race to the bottom. However, I also believe this is cyclical. The cycle will turn and there will be an increase competition for high value fliers. I predict SWU will increase to more than 4 within a couple of years.

Catbert10

EQMs are still distance based. RDMs are spend based

milehound

Instead of the mileage runs of years past. I'm now concentrating my credit card spending on earning Chase Ultimate Rewards, where points can be used towards airfares with no blackout dates, and the flights will still earn miles. Then I use the AAdvantage miles for an annual winter flight to Europe (better availability and fewer miles); I also use the miles for hotel stays at useAAmiles for boutique hotels, useful when your hotel chain of choice doesn't have a hotel where you want to go.

I don't do a lot of domestic travel, so I end up with a stockpile of domestic upgrade certificates. When I do travel domestically as a Platinum, my upgrades come through 50% of the time, and I usually book the exit row in advance for those times when they don't.

Much of this flying is to see friends and family, thus it's almost all on my own dime. I found a way to make it work for me, but I understand why others would prefer to jump ship to another program, given that one travel blog found that, among all the legacy carrier FF programs, AAdvantage was deemed the worst for mid tier elites like myself. If I had to curtail my international trips for some reason, I wouldn't have a problem resting on my 1MM status, and just paying extra when needed.

jordyn

This isn't really true.

Say you are an elite on both AA and DL. AA gives you better chance of upgrades based on your rolling EQD; DL lets you rollover MQM. The smart play is to optimize for excess miles on Delta and excess dollars on AA.

Even if you can't make that sort of optimization, it seems helpful to think about where additional spend on AA starts to have less effect on upgrade chances so you can think about how much of your overall travel strategy might make sense to go to a different carrier. If I'm going to qualify for EXP and 8 SWUs no matter what, and I have a choice between a one-stop AA versus non-stop non-oneworld flight, AA has now given me a possible incentive to choose to buy the AA ticket. But it would be good to have a sense of how valuable the extra EQDs are relative to the inconvenience of the extra stop.

apeortdz

Data point:
Yesterday PHL-LAS I was #5 on the upgrade list as a low level EXP. My spend in 2017 YTD is about $13K. So there were 4 bigger spenders.

CloudCoder

Or 4 CKs who would be ahead of an EXP even if they had zero spend.