Oil prices and the MD-80
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: AMS
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Asiana Club Silver, Flying Blue Ivory
Posts: 368
Oil prices and the MD-80
I know that opinions are mixed, but personally, I'm a fan of the MD-80. Just a though that crept up to me the other day: One of the reasons to replace the MD-80 used to be it's (lack of) fuel efficiency.
With oil prices dropping, I wonder if this means that AA will slow down the replacement of the Mad Dogs.
Anyone have any insight on their retirement schedule?
With oil prices dropping, I wonder if this means that AA will slow down the replacement of the Mad Dogs.
Anyone have any insight on their retirement schedule?
#2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
Dropping oil prices don't give AA a deep and reliable supply of parts to keep a very old fleet flying. Delta did a number of last-time batch buys to maintain its somewhat younger MD-88 fleet for a few more years but sand in the hourglass is flowing on that retirement, too.
Last edited by 3Cforme; Feb 3, 2016 at 9:42 am
#3
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Alexandria, Longboat Key
Programs: UA Gold Marriott Gold AA Gold Choice Gold Wyndham PLAT IHG PLAT Avis President's Club Amtrak Select
Posts: 2,258
The short answer is no. The long answer is as follows.
AA was not in the right financial position to keep the S80 going into next decade when the decision was made to retire the ~350 S80s in the fleet. AA could not wait any longer when they had to place that massive order back in July 2011 to replace the S80, 757, 762 fleets. Delta was able to purchase quite a few MD-82s for parts and undergo a modification called a Super 98, which was able to increase fuel efficiency by two per cent. Couple that will operating the planes are much shorter segments than what AA had the S80s flying, these planes can last into next decade. (Delta is taking a hard look at the 737-8 MAX for a replacement.) Delta was in a much better financial situation to take on this endeavor than AA was several years ago. AA's S80 fleet is in much worse shape than Delta. (Ever wonder why so many go tech or are delayed due to a mechanical problem?) They're on their last legs and a whopping 62 are being parked this year. Keep in mind that aircraft are mostly parked due to cycles/scheduled Heavy Maintenance Visits. Oil could drop down to $10 a barrel but wouldn't make a difference in retiring these planes. The last S80 will leave the fleet next year and nothing will change that.
AA was not in the right financial position to keep the S80 going into next decade when the decision was made to retire the ~350 S80s in the fleet. AA could not wait any longer when they had to place that massive order back in July 2011 to replace the S80, 757, 762 fleets. Delta was able to purchase quite a few MD-82s for parts and undergo a modification called a Super 98, which was able to increase fuel efficiency by two per cent. Couple that will operating the planes are much shorter segments than what AA had the S80s flying, these planes can last into next decade. (Delta is taking a hard look at the 737-8 MAX for a replacement.) Delta was in a much better financial situation to take on this endeavor than AA was several years ago. AA's S80 fleet is in much worse shape than Delta. (Ever wonder why so many go tech or are delayed due to a mechanical problem?) They're on their last legs and a whopping 62 are being parked this year. Keep in mind that aircraft are mostly parked due to cycles/scheduled Heavy Maintenance Visits. Oil could drop down to $10 a barrel but wouldn't make a difference in retiring these planes. The last S80 will leave the fleet next year and nothing will change that.
#4
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,810
The reason a lot of aircraft become beercans is not because of fuel, but because they've hit a major maintenance point. No different than your car. You want to drop $3500 on a new transmission, engine seals, and brakes, or buy a new car?
#5
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: RDU
Programs: AA LTP, Bonvoy Titanium; AA CK before I retired
Posts: 1,597
Agreed. Cheap fuel is the tide that floats all boats, and yes it has partially mitigated the financial pain of keeping the MD80s in the air. But only partially. All things come to an end, and the D check is usually the end. My first flight on an MD80 (DC-9-80) was a brand-new Frontier aircraft in May 1982, a year before AA got their first.
#6
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Beantown! (BOS)
Programs: AA PtPro (2 MM); Hilton Diamond; Hertz President Cr; DL SkyMiles; UA MileagePlus
Posts: 3,435
My thought is disposing aircraft for an airline may not be a simple procedure like getting rid of some items from our apartment. I am guessing that it involves a lot of logistics, where aircraft will be parked, who will take possession of the aircraft, etc. and I am sure such transfer is not as easy as transferring a title of our automobile. May involve more than one government agency and may involve multiple private companies to coordinate that.
Such will also involve scheduling, including pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, etc., how many of those employees have to remain MD-80 qualified at which base to change retirement date of aircraft. Which is whole a lot of people in the company involved for simply from logistic stand point. Also such will require stocking all those spare parts of MD-80 beyond currently scheduled date. I am sure AA already has schedule set for getting rid of spare parts of MD-80, who will buy them, etc. All those have to be changed.
My thought is just because oil price has dropped may not be enough incentive financially to go through all of above logistics to change retirement date of aircraft. I am sure AA already has delivery date set for new aircraft in anticipation of schedule retirement date of MD-80. Then what AA to do with new aircraft? AA sure has to pay insurance and registration for both MD-80 not retiring and new aircraft arrived to the company, even though AA may need only one aircraft. May not have any financial benefits for an airline after going through all those logistics to change retirement schedule for aircraft.
What to do if oil price goes up in July or August this year?
Such will also involve scheduling, including pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, etc., how many of those employees have to remain MD-80 qualified at which base to change retirement date of aircraft. Which is whole a lot of people in the company involved for simply from logistic stand point. Also such will require stocking all those spare parts of MD-80 beyond currently scheduled date. I am sure AA already has schedule set for getting rid of spare parts of MD-80, who will buy them, etc. All those have to be changed.
My thought is just because oil price has dropped may not be enough incentive financially to go through all of above logistics to change retirement date of aircraft. I am sure AA already has delivery date set for new aircraft in anticipation of schedule retirement date of MD-80. Then what AA to do with new aircraft? AA sure has to pay insurance and registration for both MD-80 not retiring and new aircraft arrived to the company, even though AA may need only one aircraft. May not have any financial benefits for an airline after going through all those logistics to change retirement schedule for aircraft.
What to do if oil price goes up in July or August this year?
#8
Suspended
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
Not to mention that oil will eventually rise again and when it does AA does not want to be stuck with a fleet of fuel inefficient a/c. Fleet planning takes years if not a decade. Its not like showing up to the car lot and buying on the spur.
#10
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Austin
Programs: AA EXP +2MM- LT PLT! HH Diamond
Posts: 6,086
#11
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 3,790
#12
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OKC
Programs: IHG Spire, National Exec, AA Plat
Posts: 2,274
I haven't been on a 321T yet but in Y I figure it's about the same as a regular 321 or 737. The 777 on domestic is too rare to count.
#14
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: COS
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Gold
Posts: 36
A Bit Off Topic
Same here. True, there is nothing like flying the 773 TPAC/TATL in biz, but I remember the good ol' days of airline travel ... Convair Electras, DC-3s, B-707s, DC-8s, etc.
#15
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,810
My thought is disposing aircraft for an airline may not be a simple procedure like getting rid of some items from our apartment. I am guessing that it involves a lot of logistics, where aircraft will be parked, who will take possession of the aircraft, etc. and I am sure such transfer is not as easy as transferring a title of our automobile. May involve more than one government agency and may involve multiple private companies to coordinate that.