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Old Jan 1, 16, 11:49 pm   #1
Moderator: American AAdvantage & TravelBuzz
 
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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

MODERATOR NOTES

Please use this thread to discuss upgrade availability on specific flights for calendar year 2016.

• For general information, see this FAQ entry: What are the chances that my upgrade will clear?

• For specific information herein, try using Search this Thread for your relevant airport code(s), as well as for the previous archived threads:

• Tools like ExpertFlyer and KVS can be useful in seeing upgrade availability as well as seats for sale available in the cabin you seek. The Travel Tools Forum has extensive threads about these tools.

2015: 2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
2014: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...solidated.html
2013: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...ed-2013-a.html
2012 and prior: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...012-prior.html
• sica4 has generously started a system for tracking upgrade percentages. Please see THIS PREVIOUS POST or click HERE to contribute.

• Please do not ask members to post proprietary information (e.g. ExpertFlyer data) regarding upgrade chances (a thoughtful, helpful member may post information, but you are not allowed to request it). Subscriptions and free trials for these services are available.

The AA Forum Moderator Team
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Old Jan 2, 16, 7:58 am   #2
 
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Well, first two segments of 2016 coming up, and first two upgrade chances with success. Of course, the two flights look, at best, to be 50% full.

But I'll take 'em.

Question on using the upgrade template, should we report on under 500 mile flights (those where no stickers are required)?
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Old Jan 2, 16, 10:13 pm   #3
 
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I'm using Expert Flyer to try and figure out the chances of an ExPlat UDU on the 321B LAX/SFO-JFK from econ into business.

What's confusing me is that only the first two flights of the day are even showing C space (and zero seats) while the rest of the flights don't even show that space as an option. Is there something I'm missing?

I want to buy a ticket that's about a week, week and a half out. Econ fares are fairly cheap. In the $180-200 range.
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Old Jan 2, 16, 10:39 pm   #4
 
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First flight of the new year, first time as EXP. AA 1826 on 1/4. Doing DCA-PHX-OAK. Only 1 seat left unassigned, and seats are unavailable to purchase. Here's to hoping for the battlefield upgrade, but i'm not counting on anything. I'm flying a full-Y fare, so I thought that would get me some added consideration in the queue.
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Old Jan 2, 16, 10:40 pm   #5
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Sometimes Expertflyer shows C-0 sometimes it doesn't list C at all. That means the same thing, no C.
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Old Jan 3, 16, 7:07 am   #6
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
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Upcoming multi-segment domestic travel on 1/5 and 1/7 for me, all connecting through DFW. Upgrades cleared at EXP window for all flights.

First time that's happened in at least a year.
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Old Jan 3, 16, 12:49 pm   #7
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VickiSoCal View Post
Sometimes Expertflyer shows C-0 sometimes it doesn't list C at all. That means the same thing, no C.
Does that mean C is full and won't open up?
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Old Jan 3, 16, 1:16 pm   #8
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noreservations View Post
Does that mean C is full and won't open up?
C can't be "full" as it's upgrade inventory that is on a "space available" basis, i.e. what seats are left over after all paid tickets are sold for biz class. EF may not even show C sometimes, as AA might upgrade folks before updating the online GDS info. (it's happened to me several times, when I've been upgraded and EF never showed any such upgrade inventory).
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Old Jan 3, 16, 1:55 pm   #9
 
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Currently wait listed for Y-J upgrade on 263 to PEK on 1/6. Currently J7/D7/I2, cabin is mostly un purchase/unassigned by EF map. Agent said odds look very good (taken with salt), but keeping my fingers crossed. Got the UP on this lat time around at T-2, would be nice to know closer this time
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Old Jan 3, 16, 2:27 pm   #10
 
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I have been following AA798 Phl-Ams for ages and have not seen ANY C availability on this flight. A on a few occassions but never C thisnis a 757 ex usair flight so Im wondering if that has something to do with it or what might be? Even at T72 its veen zero with J7... Anyone with experince upgrading on this flight?
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Old Jan 3, 16, 3:08 pm   #11
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by noreservations View Post
Does that mean C is full and won't open up?
At the top of the EF results page for American it says
Quote:
Zero value award classes may not always be shown. Click here for more information
and following the link for more information gets you
Quote:
Sometimes American will return just two flights where the requested award seat availability is zero on both flights, even when there are later non-stop/direct flights scheduled. This is American's way of indicating that none of the later flights have available inventory for the request class either.
So C may well show up again, but it is currently 0 for all these other flights.
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Old Jan 3, 16, 3:17 pm   #12
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kauppias View Post
I have been following AA798 Phl-Ams for ages and have not seen ANY C availability on this flight. A on a few occassions but never C thisnis a 757 ex usair flight so Im wondering if that has something to do with it or what might be? Even at T72 its veen zero with J7... Anyone with experince upgrading on this flight?
Waitlists often clear before C shows any inventory - I've certainly had SWUs clear while watching EF and never seeing C change from 0, and I've had alerts with EF that never fire and yet my upgrades clear.

Given the small number of J seats on a 757, I suspect the few upgrades get processed without C inventory ever appearing.
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Old Jan 3, 16, 6:39 pm   #13
 
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I am on flight 108 lax-Lhr on Jan 24th, we are a family 5 all in J, my parents are exp and are on the same flight, on a different reservation, and used swu to upgrade to first (confirmed), my dad had 5 extra swu that he did not use so he gave them to us today. Is there any chance they will move all 5 to first. We have only gold status, is there a chance they will move some of us? Thanks
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Old Jan 3, 16, 7:04 pm   #14
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
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My 1st paid segment of the year is on Thursday from DCA to PHX and got confirmed at the 100 hour mark today.
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Old Jan 4, 16, 4:21 am   #15
 
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In need of an educated guess, ORD-SFO

Hey everyone,

Not an important issue, but I was hoping to get some wisdom from others who are familiar with this route.

Last night I put on hold a one-way ticket on the direct AA flight ORD-SFO. It’s a Sunday evening flight departing 6:20 PM (~ two months out). At this point only two FC seats are assigned and three preferred seats are assigned in the main cabin.

From your experience - what are my chances for a complimentary upgrade as an EXP?

I’m only traveling about ten segments domestically every year so not an expert. So far my record is near 100%, but I assume this is a popular flight and it is on Sunday evening. My alternatives are using a SWU (seems like a terrible waste) or use miles. Or, of course, seat in Y for four hours.
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