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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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2016 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Jan 19, 2016, 4:18 pm
  #46  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: MCO/FLL
Programs: AA-gold(MM); Marriott-Lifetime Titanium Elite; Hilton-Gold;
Posts: 503
I'm flying MIA-LHR-MUC and BUD-LHR-MIA on AA metal, Wed. Nov 23, 2016 returning Saturday Dec. 10. I cleared to business seat upon my purchase using an SWU to LHR. I was told (although the aircraft is completely open) that I would have to wait list for the upgrade on the return. I asked if they could request released one J seat. The EXP rep said, we don't do that anymore, we only did that PRE-MERGER. ugh

In the past, no matter how late I purchased my ticket, if I've walked up to the counter at LHR and asked to use an SWU without notice, I've gotten it.

Is this just a London thing, or will I see a seat available within the next couple of months, or am I really going to have to be wait listed for almost a 11 months?

I could have connected through Madrid, but I do enjoy biz seats on the 77W

I've set up an EF alert.
trekker954 is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2016, 4:26 pm
  #47  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: DCA
Programs: AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 947
Originally Posted by trekker954
I'm flying MIA-LHR-MUC and BUD-LHR-MIA on AA metal, Wed. Nov 23, 2016 returning Saturday Dec. 10. I cleared to business seat upon my purchase using an SWU to LHR. I was told (although the aircraft is completely open) that I would have to wait list for the upgrade on the return. I asked if they could request released one J seat. The EXP rep said, we don't do that anymore, we only did that PRE-MERGER. ugh

In the past, no matter how late I purchased my ticket, if I've walked up to the counter at LHR and asked to use an SWU without notice, I've gotten it.

Is this just a London thing, or will I see a seat available within the next couple of months, or am I really going to have to be wait listed for almost a 11 months?

I could have connected through Madrid, but I do enjoy biz seats on the 77W

I've set up an EF alert.
The AAgent was correct - they don't open up SWU availability upon request. You'll have to wait in line like everybody else, though given the early date of your booking and SWU request, I'd be quite surprised if you aren't #1 in that line.

Sometimes a few upgrades clear months beforehand. Other times they clear at T-26 hours, and then a couple might clear at the gate. There's not really any way to predict or control this, except to set up EF alerts, which you've done.

One way or another, I'd give you a very, very, very good chance of your remaining SWU clearing sometime before scheduled departure.
discoverCSG is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2016, 5:56 pm
  #48  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: LHR
Programs: AA EXP, DL DM, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 1,032
Originally Posted by Kate2015
Interesting, I would have thought SJC. What about SMF? I have a bit of a drive to where I'm going from any airport out there, so I'm open.
No idea about SMF -- I live halfway between SFO and SJC so I don't really ever have a reason to fly to/from SMF. To be fair SJC hasn't been bad for me either, but it just feels like I've seen longer upgrade lists on SJC-DFW. I'd have to go back and check the times I've flown SJC-DFW, though, since there could be selection bias. I guess what I'm ultimately getting at is -- use the airport that's best for you. Most of the SJC flights are MD80s while SFO is pretty much all 737/A321, if that matters to you.

If I may ask, where will you be going that SFO/SJC/SMF are all feasible? SJC and SMF especially are pretty far apart...
taxicabnumber is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2016, 6:32 pm
  #49  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 294
Originally Posted by taxicabnumber
No idea about SMF -- I live halfway between SFO and SJC so I don't really ever have a reason to fly to/from SMF. To be fair SJC hasn't been bad for me either, but it just feels like I've seen longer upgrade lists on SJC-DFW. I'd have to go back and check the times I've flown SJC-DFW, though, since there could be selection bias. I guess what I'm ultimately getting at is -- use the airport that's best for you. Most of the SJC flights are MD80s while SFO is pretty much all 737/A321, if that matters to you.

If I may ask, where will you be going that SFO/SJC/SMF are all feasible? SJC and SMF especially are pretty far apart...
Aircraft doesn't matter so much, I mostly want to use up some SWU's. I'm headed to Monterey, so it's a hike from SJC and SFO to begin with, but if SMF is a lot cheaper, I'll throw in Yosemite, so it's not a wasted trip.
Kate2015 is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2016, 9:32 pm
  #50  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: LHR
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Originally Posted by Kate2015
Aircraft doesn't matter so much, I mostly want to use up some SWU's. I'm headed to Monterey, so it's a hike from SJC and SFO to begin with, but if SMF is a lot cheaper, I'll throw in Yosemite, so it's not a wasted trip.
If you're going to Monterey, then SJC is a no-brainer (unless SFO is way cheaper). Traffic from SFO down to San Jose is frequently horrible, and you pretty much have to go through San Jose if you're going SFO --> Monterey.

Re: SMF, I doubt DFW-SMF will be cheaper than DFW-SFO/DFW-SJC. There's a ton of competition with Spirit/Virgin America/United/American/Southwest all serving the DAL/DFW - SFO/SJC/OAK market that doesn't exist in the DAL/DFW-SMF market. I flew today on a $53.10 SFO-DFW one-way ticket, FWIW.

Also, SWUs change the equation somewhat, as A space on DFW-SFO/DFW-SJC is generally plentiful in advance. Do you have an EF subscription?
taxicabnumber is offline  
Old Jan 25, 2016, 8:57 am
  #51  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 2
Hi all - Exec Plat here but new to these forums. I see lots of mentions of ExpertFlyer but trying to understand how I would use it to gauge my chances of upgrades. For example: I'm on flight 66 AUS -> JFK tomorrow and stuck in a middle seat. Would EF tell me how much availability there is left in business class and anything about the queue?

(if there's a sticky that I'm missing, apologies in advance. couldn't find a good newbie answer via search.)
seattleanalytics is offline  
Old Jan 25, 2016, 9:14 am
  #52  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 294
Originally Posted by taxicabnumber
If you're going to Monterey, then SJC is a no-brainer (unless SFO is way cheaper). Traffic from SFO down to San Jose is frequently horrible, and you pretty much have to go through San Jose if you're going SFO --> Monterey.

Re: SMF, I doubt DFW-SMF will be cheaper than DFW-SFO/DFW-SJC. There's a ton of competition with Spirit/Virgin America/United/American/Southwest all serving the DAL/DFW - SFO/SJC/OAK market that doesn't exist in the DAL/DFW-SMF market. I flew today on a $53.10 SFO-DFW one-way ticket, FWIW.

Also, SWUs change the equation somewhat, as A space on DFW-SFO/DFW-SJC is generally plentiful in advance. Do you have an EF subscription?
Belated thank you - thanks, I see that now. I wasn't fully logged into, so I wasn't seeing the SWU's. There's definitely availability right now for some test itineraries (months out, no less!).
Kate2015 is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 1:40 pm
  #53  
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA ExPlt, AAdmirals Club, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 47
Cleared first ever swu

I am flying Ord-nrt tomorrow 1/27 and then on to cgk. Purchased and requested swu about four weeks ago.

On flight to position to Ord when expert flyer sent email c7. Was not automatically upgraded. Called as explat line. Manually upgraded. Looked at ef, still c7 and looks like about half of j still open.

After about ten (over five years) flights to Asia first in business. And first flight on 787. Yeah!!

Hope return clears. Well be out of country so hard to call.
MCOSWAFlyer is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 1:51 pm
  #54  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: ORD (formerly SAN)
Programs: Hilton Diamond; IHG Platinum; Bonvoy Gold; AA Platinum Pro and United Premier Silver (DH = AA EXP)
Posts: 1,927
Originally Posted by discoverCSG
The AAgent was correct - they don't open up SWU availability upon request. You'll have to wait in line like everybody else, though given the early date of your booking and SWU request, I'd be quite surprised if you aren't #1 in that line.
This isn't technically true right? You can be #1 in line, but someone calling in when C inventory is released will get the seat before you do. That's the part about this line that doesn't make sense. People with tools can cut the line, and do so quite frequently.

Case in point is the post right above mine (congrats, btw!):

Originally Posted by MCOSWAFlyer
I am flying Ord-nrt tomorrow 1/27 and then on to cgk. Purchased and requested swu about four weeks ago.

On flight to position to Ord when expert flyer sent email c7. Was not automatically upgraded. Called as explat line. Manually upgraded.
TravelLawyer is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 6:27 pm
  #55  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: DEN
Programs: DL PM, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Gold
Posts: 396
This is my first year as a EXP and I'm now 2/2 on SWU requests : ) I had SWU requests in for AA 108 from LAX-LHR tomorrow and then on the way back on AA 109 on 2/14 and both just cleared at 24 hours. This is making EXP worth it already for me!
Youngtraveldude is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 9:07 pm
  #56  
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SNA
Posts: 18,240
I think they are improving on the "cut in line" by calling in when availability opens up issue. (Improving is subjective depending on who you are of course) I got an EF alert at 7:38 pm PST and was on the computer within mere moments and our LAX-LHR "C" upgrades in November were already processing. (The reservation was unavailable online)

If you are looking to go LAX-LHR in mid November a slew of C, U and Z just opened up!
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 10:05 pm
  #57  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: DCA
Programs: American AAdvantage EXP, World of Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Rewards Titanium, MGM Rewards Gold
Posts: 428
Hey all, newly AA PLT. I show for a Friday flight on EF 6 seats in A class, but my upgrade still hasn't cleared, and we are now within 72 hours to departure. Any reason it hasn't gone through?

When I call, the automated system doesn't mention the flight in question for upgrade status despite the app showing it was requested. Phone agents say they aren't sure but that it may clear at the gate. They checked the upgrade list and I am not on it. Is it possible nothing has processed for this particular flight then?

Any thoughts would be appreciated to guide if this will clear on its own or if there is an issue.
joepercussion1 is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 10:18 pm
  #58  
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500 mile upgrades don't clear in to A
VickiSoCal is offline  
Old Jan 26, 2016, 10:50 pm
  #59  
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: BOS, LAX
Programs: AA Gold, HH Diamond
Posts: 804
Originally Posted by joepercussion1
Hey all, newly AA PLT. I show for a Friday flight on EF 6 seats in A class, but my upgrade still hasn't cleared, and we are now within 72 hours to departure. Any reason it hasn't gone through?
The class ("X") for 500-mile (sticker) upgrades is not shown on EF. "A" class can give you a clue about the chances, but this is not the class your upgrade will clear.

Since you mentioned you are a new AA PLT, did you request the upgrade when you were already a PLT? If not, call the PLT "desk" NOW and ask them to refresh your reservation with your current status.
grrizzli is offline  
Old Jan 27, 2016, 5:59 am
  #60  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: DCA
Posts: 7,769
Originally Posted by MCOSWAFlyer
Hope return clears. Well be out of country so hard to call.
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arlflyer is offline  


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