ashill

Well, these A321s will be 30% premium (30/102) instead of 24% on 762s (40/168). With only 35% of the plane (36/102) being regular economy, I would think that EXPs would be in at least MCE most of the time, unless AA is incredibly successful in filling the plane with expensive fares.

C17PSGR

That's not the right calculation. 128 people on the flight are not eligible to request upgrades. As an EXP, I'm only 60-70 percent for upgrades on LAX-JFK with 36 seats. I'm assuming there are a couple of EXP's who requested upgrades before me but that most of people on that route are paid J. Its amazing to see the flight go from J7 4 hours before the flight to J0.

Since I'm usually no worse than no 4 on the list at the gate, I'm assuming the demand by paid and EXP on JFK-LAX is about 40. So I think 40 people are chasing 20, rather than 40 people chasing 36.

Considering they sell a lot of J on that route, I'm a little surprised they would go with 20 seats. I would have thought J sales on LAX-JFK average 30 seats per flight. I'm either way off or they are planning to add more flights.

dstan

I've added a Mod Note to the OP with some of the links provided in this thread. Please send an Alert to request additions.

/Moderator

FWAAA

I disagree with both of you; the problem with your "odds" calculations is that they assume that all J seats are available for upgrade - that AA doesn't sell any of them. But that would be false.

Just for kicks, let's assume that AA currently sells, on average, 15 of the 30 J seats. That leaves 128 econ passengers hoping to score one of 15 upgrade J seats.

With these A321s, let's assume that AA will sell the same number of J seats, on average, or 15 of the 20 available. The future looks like five J seats for those 72 econ passengers - looks to me like the odds have worsened. And if AA can sell, on average, five more of the J seats (not out of the question if AA takes business away from UA and DL), then the upgrade chances just went to zero. Good for AA, not so good for us upgraders.

sts603

Would hope to see 16F and 26F on the 319s/321s.

sts603

Makes sense. Frequency here is going to be the question. I do think this will make upgrades, especially free upgrades, harder. I'm also perfectly ok with that.

eponymous_coward

AA is also going to have to increase frequency, or else they're coughing up around 1000 seats/daily to B6/DL/UA/VX.

Yes, I know, AA is going for premium pax. Well, as a completely non-scientific experiment, go look up how many AA flights are available on SAAver F award this week, JFK-LAX, and compare to how many AA flights are available on SAAver award JFK-LHR this week. AA doesn't sell all their AFS F, not even close. Maybe improving the product will increase demand, but if it doesn't and AA isn't going to increase frequency, that's a lot of real estate to have sitting empty.

It will be interesting to see if this works... I'd also have to wonder if the 321neo will also fly some select JFK-Europe markets in this configuration, when those deliveries show up down the road.

sts603

I doubt empty. My guess is 20J will lead to J oversales at times where J demand is high relative to relative F demand and you'll get some op-ups J to F which I think is just fine from a business perspective here. Those J tickets are still very expensive.

pssteve

Thanks. Guess I better hope for the A321 to replace the MD 80's PSP-DFW/ORD which for me is the toughest UG (<50%). Seems the tourists in season are prepared to pay whatever it takes for F.

dstan

Some relevant posts from the now-closed Facebook announcement speculation thread have now been merged into this thread.

/Moderator

FWAAA

I'm disappointed with a mere 20 J seats, but AA's plan for 10 solo F seats takes up a lot of real estate, so 26J (like UA's current 3-class ps) wouldn't work unless AA went with 36 total econ seats.

IflyonAA

Some photos:

FWAAA

The first two animated images (they aren't photos) are of the A321 transcon F and J but the other two are renderings of the domestic Airbus F and Y.

sts603

The pictures suggest that there will be 5 rows for F ahead of the 2L door which would likely explain why they decided to go with 10 F even though 8 may have been more to their liking.

pdquick

Flying with 102 pax solves the problem of westbound range. The A321neo can't fly transcon west with a standard configuration without stopping. It sounds as if AA has decided that the combination of lower operating costs plus premium revenue will make this work. That's good news for pax, because it means that without major advances in engine efficiency, they are unlikely to change their minds and try to cram in more seats.