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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:01 pm   #121
 
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Originally Posted by frebay View Post
Those pics look amazing, wonder if they will be able to retro 737's.
It's possible, but it's not going to be done.

Not all A321s are going to be configured in three classes; only the ones dedicated to transcontinental service between JFK and LAX/SFO.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:08 pm   #122
 
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Originally Posted by TWA884 View Post
It's possible, but it's not going to be done.

Not all A321s are going to be configured in three classes; only the ones dedicated to transcontinental service between JFK and LAX/SFO.
Might be nice if AA continues that one morning JFK/MIA turn on the transcon figured A321.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:12 pm   #123
 
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Originally Posted by bbison View Post
That's not the issue at all...Some freight can only move on a larger aircraft. AA has a monopoly on this space; often with such demand there's a backlog to book it. There is plenty of "supply"/carriers to move normal-sized freight/freight that can be containerized trans-con.
If it really is that profitable then maybe they will add a single daily 777 positioning flight on jfk-lax like they do on mia-lax now
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:30 pm   #124
 
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Originally Posted by taliesin View Post
Buying B6?
Then the bigger issue of figuring out what to do with the two mega-terminals at JFK, and creating more space at LAX.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:34 pm   #125
 
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge View Post
Although with 1,000 Y seats being taken out of daily capacity (probably a little less since another frequency or two might be added) I'm not sure how cheapo Y fares there will be. Its seems as though AA is ceding that part of the market to B6 and other carriers. Even as it is I'm not finding much below $500ai RT for the JFK/LAX route. Of course, possibly to get a cheaper fare (and better chance at upgrading) one will now need to connect rather than take the direct flight.
I thought the JFK-LAX was one of the more profitable domestic routes for AA. Thus, I can't see AA raising fares to cover the 1,000 lost seats. They must be adding flights in the future to sell frequency, i.e. a "shuttle" concept, albeit 5+ hours.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:38 pm   #126
 
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Originally Posted by yul36 View Post
Not totally familiar with how AA treats OW status pax. I have sapphire as MPC
Gold. Would that qualify for the extra comfort seating.
Other than for upgrades, AA generally treats OW status pax the same as equivalent AA status pax. It has been confirmed that OW Emerald/Sapphire also have access to MCE, as well as Ruby until the end of 2013 like AAdvantage Gold.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:42 pm   #127
 
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Originally Posted by ijgordon View Post

At the end of the day, it's basic supply and demand. Reduce supply (smaller Y cabins, even if they add a frequency or two), and assuming external demand remains constant, you can command a higher price.
That assumes nobody else does anything to increase supply (and eat some of AA's marketshare), and push fares back down to equilibrium. There are a few other airlines that fly out of JFK to the West Coast.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 3:50 pm   #128
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward View Post
That assumes nobody else does anything to increase supply (and eat some of AA's marketshare), and push fares back down to equilibrium. There are a few other airlines that fly out of JFK to the West Coast.
The JFK-LAX/SFO route is not only served by AA, but also: B6, DL, UA, VX

So lots of choice. But the other airlines will definitely increase capacity so I doubt AA will enjoy a fare premium in Y.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:05 pm   #129
 
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Originally Posted by FWAAA View Post
I disagree with both of you; the problem with your "odds" calculations is that they assume that all J seats are available for upgrade - that AA doesn't sell any of them. But that would be false.

Just for kicks, let's assume that AA currently sells, on average, 15 of the 30 J seats. That leaves 128 econ passengers hoping to score one of 15 upgrade J seats.

With these A321s, let's assume that AA will sell the same number of J seats, on average, or 15 of the 20 available. The future looks like five J seats for those 72 econ passengers - looks to me like the odds have worsened. And if AA can sell, on average, five more of the J seats (not out of the question if AA takes business away from UA and DL), then the upgrade chances just went to zero. Good for AA, not so good for us upgraders.
You are correct. The upgrade odds will worsen for Y upgraders. There will almost always be a few upgrades available (AA would be stupid to cut F/J capacity down to a number too close to actual demand and risk losing any potential paid F/J), but the days of abundant upgrades are over.

AA is also perfectly happy to cede the 1,000 lowest paid Y pax to other carriers. All that matters is having large enough planes to accommodate paid F/J and the high fares Y pax. This demand is more than covered by 102 seats. Focusing on MCE in Y only confirms this -- they know most elites won't be getting upgraded, and they want to avoid the elite moving to competitors. Even under the most unlikely scenario of a booming economy and increased business travel this strategy still garners the traffic they want, and they'll simply cede the lower fares. Industry attempts in the past to capture the "most" passengers clearly is a failed strategy.

Overall quite a sound business strategy.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:08 pm   #130
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward View Post
That assumes nobody else does anything to increase supply (and eat some of AA's marketshare), and push fares back down to equilibrium. There are a few other airlines that fly out of JFK to the West Coast.
Unless the competition does something to attract the paid F/J and elites (MCE), AA should be perfectly happy to give them hundreds of low fare leisure pax.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:16 pm   #131
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Originally Posted by vxmike View Post
Focusing on MCE in Y only confirms this -- they know most elites won't be getting upgraded, and they want to avoid the elite moving to competitors.

Overall quite a sound business strategy.
Quite agreed. I think AA is positioning itself nicely, as they should.

However, as elites, I think we should enjoy the next year or so, because this is as good as it's ever going to get. Fewer upgrades, and inevitably a less generous frequent flier program are on the horizon.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:22 pm   #132
 
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Originally Posted by vxmike View Post
Unless the competition does something to attract the paid F/J and elites (MCE), AA should be perfectly happy to give them hundreds of low fare leisure pax.
But isn't it these "low fare leisure pax" who paid AA $ billions last year for checked bags cuz F,J and elites don't pay these fees unless that is part of future "Upgrades".
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:31 pm   #133
 
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Originally Posted by pssteve View Post
But isn't it these "low fare leisure pax" who paid AA $ billions last year for checked bags cuz F,J and elites don't pay these fees unless that is part of future "Upgrades".
Maybe so, but it doesn't mean the low-fare pax are profitable. It might mean they are just slightly less unprofitable.

A large percentage of checked baggage fees would simply be included in higher fares if not broken out separately. The fees actually help FFers and Mileage Runners who don't check bags.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 4:49 pm   #134
 
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Originally Posted by bubbashow View Post
While the A321 highlighted it, the video "fly through" of the 77W conveniently ignored the Y class cabin and 10-abreast seating. I guess they didn't want to say "Squeezing in an extra seat across - a first for a US carrier"?
The first U.S. carrier to do this is UA - which is squeezing an extra seat into its 787s.

And make no mistake, UA will continue to squeeze in that extra seat with no deliveries and cabin refreshes, as will DL. And, obviously, AA will also be taking the denser configuration on its 787s, just like UA.
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Old Jul 23, 12, 5:01 pm   #135
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Here is the interview with Alice Liu of AA about the new A321 transcons:

http://www.frequentbusinesstraveler....-and-products/
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