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ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)

Old Feb 14, 2013, 9:50 am
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The AA - US merger was approved by AMR creditors and the boards of directors of both airlines on 13 Feb 2013, and announced the 14th.

There is no further speculation about whether the merger will occur; all that is pending is approval from the bankruptcy court and the regulatory authorities.

American Airlines and US Airways approve merger: just the facts, please outlines the facts we know;

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement Discussion (consolidated) is the thread for discussion of the announced merger.
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ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)

 
Old Jul 21, 2012, 1:56 pm
  #1456  
 
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Originally Posted by 6P&E
Is that due to the sheer volume at ATL or is the WX really that much different?
It's a combination of both. ATL does get a few more pop-up storms...closer to Gulf moisture. Much more significant issue is the volume differences. ATL has about 3x the aircraft maneuvers than CLT. During PM rush you can feel it when weather hits.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 2:08 pm
  #1457  
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Originally Posted by SOBE ER DOC
It's a combination of both. ATL does get a few more pop-up storms...closer to Gulf moisture. Much more significant issue is the volume differences. ATL has about 3x the aircraft maneuvers than CLT. During PM rush you can feel it when weather hits.
ATL isn't that much larger than CLT measured by aircraft movements - for the past several years, CLT has had a llittle less than twice the aircraft movements of CLT. 2010 stats:

http://www.aci.aero/cda/aci_common/d...-10814_666_2__

And first quarter 2012 stats (I think 2011 are still pay-only for a while):

http://www.aci.aero/cda/aci_common/d...12-231_666_2__
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 2:09 pm
  #1458  
 
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Originally Posted by TWA884
AviationDaily Reported on July 19, 2012, that Parker's merger plan for US Airways and American Airlines calls for ceding the Asian routes to Delta and UAL.

He envisions a network that would feed into ORD for the European routes and MIA for the Latin America routes. Passengers traveling to Asia would be accommodated by American's OneWorld partners.

Additionally, international routes from PHL and CLT would be maintained.
This is a failed strategy on so many levels.

#1: JL only flies into three AA/US hubs: DFW, ORD and JFK. Four if you count LAX but that is hardly an AA hub. This is in no way competitive with UA or, especially, DL.

#2: CX only flies to ORD and JFK. Again, LAX, if you consider that a hub.

#3: Most elites who like to use SWU in premium cabins will steer clear of JL/CX unless their AA SWUs are recognized.

#4: East coast pax will not double back to ORD for European routes. Would be more beneficial to grow JFK and PHL as European gateways. Plus, using PHL / JFK gives deeper penetration into Europe with 757s.

#5: AA needs to grown their own route network to Europe or rely on IB for connections. LHR is a poor connecting hub and taxes are overly burdensome for premium passengers.

#6: The fastest growing aviation market is Asia. US leadership's inability to see this clearly speaks to their misunderstanding of the marketplace.


This comment is proof-positive that a US-run merged airline would slowly wither on the vine. Again, not opposed to the merger...if it's run by AA leadership.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 2:16 pm
  #1459  
 
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
ATL isn't that much larger than CLT measured by aircraft movements - for the past several years, CLT has had a llittle less than twice the aircraft movements of CLT.
As a former Tarheel (I left the state before most people here were even born, I'm sure.... well almost), and someone who hasn't been through CLT since the PI days, I have a hard time getting my mind around the fact that, by some measures, CLT is the world's 6th busiest airport.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 2:36 pm
  #1460  
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Originally Posted by 6P&E
As a former Tarheel (I left the state before most people here were even born, I'm sure.... well almost), and someone who hasn't been through CLT since the PI days, I have a hard time getting my mind around the fact that, by some measures, CLT is the world's 6th busiest airport.
The CLT hub has certainly grown exponentially since the Piedmont days. An amazing success story, since most passengers at CLT are connecting and not O&D. Here is an article from earlier this year about CLT:

Eventually, the airport could have separate terminals connected by a tram, similar to Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

“You either grow, or risk withering away,” said Jerry Orr, the airport’s aviation director since 1989. He said he believes Charlotte’s airport could one day be bigger than Atlanta’s.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/201...on-future.html

US currently flies almost 600 of CLT's 670 daily flights, but Jerry Orr should take note of what happened at CVG, which once featured over 600 daily flights but now has about 120.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 3:53 pm
  #1461  
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
If he really said that (the bolded parts), then that shows how utterly clueless he is.
I only have a screen capture of the article as it appears on the Allied Pilots Association site:


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Old Jul 21, 2012, 4:08 pm
  #1462  
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Originally Posted by TWA884
I only have a screen capture of the article as it appears on the Allied Pilots Association site:
Thanks! I wonder if he was really talking about NRT-Onward flights, which DL and UA will of course dominate until the capacity constraints at HND and/or NRT are resolved. There simply aren't enough available slots for AA to replicate the NRT-SIN/BKK/TPE/HKG etc route networks flown by UA and DL.

And besides, with JAL as an immunized joint venture partner, which just reported a huge profit, I can't see why AA would want to replicate its Asian network.

AA fought tooth and nail to keep JAL in the Oneworld fold a couple years ago precisely because it could not reasonably build a Japanese hub network on the scale of the UA or DL connections at NRT.

Whether or not AA merges with US, I can see AA expanding its flights to NRT and China/Asia once it emerges from Ch 11. From LAX, new flights to PEK and ICN might make sense. From JFK, flights to PEK and PVG. And MAH4546 has mentioned SEA as a potential Asian gateway. Perhaps DFW to ICN. DFW currently has two flights a day to NRT, and perhaps other hubs might see additional capacity to Tokyo as well.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 4:34 pm
  #1463  
 
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The discussion here seems to be assuming that a merger would be the only way to arrive at three major carriers (as obviously the industry is headed towards).

But that's not necessarily the case at all. it's entirely possible for one airline to just shrink away as another attacks its routes and takes them one by one until there's nothing left. They don't actually have to buy the business at all. They could just outcompete and take the market share directly.

That seems quite plausible -- either US attacks now with its lower cost basis and tries to make existing American cash cow routes unprofitable or American after it emerges from BK with a new more fuel efficient fleet does the same to US.

I don't really see what buying US would buy American. Neither of the East coast hubs have any value to American with its much bigger ORD,JFK,MIA hubs. PHX perhaps in the west but it hardly seems worth buying all the baggage it would come with.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 5:01 pm
  #1464  
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Exclamation No, You Won't!!!

Originally Posted by sfredeye

I plan on calling the Executive offices to let them know that I will immediately seek to move my business to UA.
"Worst airline ever"! They were (10 years as Chairman's with them, I KNOW exactly HOW bad they were). NOT ANY more (really)! MUCH better than UA (5 years 1K Pass Plus Holder). Again, I KNOW UA rather well.

Since the merger with CO, YOU don't want ANY part of that mess!!!
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 6:06 pm
  #1465  
 
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Originally Posted by SOBE ER DOC
#1: JL only flies into three AA/US hubs: DFW, ORD and JFK. Four if you count LAX but that is hardly an AA hub. This is in no way competitive with UA or, especially, DL.
Last time I checked, JL did not fly to DFW.
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Old Jul 21, 2012, 10:18 pm
  #1466  
 
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Originally Posted by elitetraveler
If it happened it would likely be a "buy and break" deal with either WN or DL leading it, keeping strategic chunks (for DL - JFK, LHR slots, MIA and the Latin America network and perhaps LAX gates), for WN ORD and DFW facilities that would enable it to dramatically grow domestically and other pieces dealt off to appease opponents (i.e. - UA could get some LHR slots as an example, US could be offered table scraps). I believe AA's cash position enhances its value as an acquisition target, no?

There would be no anti-competitive problems - in fact, it would make LHR more competitive, DL share at JFK would still be lower than UA at EWR.

Boeing and Airbus will be delighted as AA's order book would serve on the Airbus side as DL's narrow body replacements and on the Boeing side future WN fleet needs.

AA has plenty of assets competitors would like to get their hands on - and the timing has never been better.

The entire industry has been a story of mergers and asset sales, and there has never been a deal too big for an airline CEO. It may be a long shot, but it can't be ruled out.
I don't feel like searching through this entire thread but as you can see from Horton's comments yesterday to WSJ, reaffirms what I said to you previously -- you incorrectly say AA missed its opportunity for industry consolidation, Horton, very surprisingly imo, said AA looked at United in the mid-part of the past decade. He also noted that AA began the round of consolidation with its acquisition of TWA and the lack of willingness by AA's unions who now blame management for missing the consolidations of the past few years. Finally, any merger involving AA would have been complicated given that AA was the world's largest airline at the time. Many of the same arguments I made to you previously in this thread.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...841489320.html

Mr. Horton on Friday said AMR is well aware of the benefits of industry consolidation and started a wave of mergers in 2001 with its purchase of Trans World Airlines. In the middle of the past decade, "we talked to nearly everyone, two (airlines) intensively," he said. One was United Airlines, he said. But American's unions weren't in favor of a combination and AMR at that time was the largest airline in the world, so there were antitrust complications.
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 4:47 am
  #1467  
 
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If AA merges with US and pulls back its metal from Asia, it won't be long before JL returns to DFW, CX goes there too, and at least one them adds CLT or PHL.

Maybe AA+US will never happen, but this is becoming a lengthy thread and I haven't read a deal killer yet.
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 6:47 am
  #1468  
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Originally Posted by ccengct
Maybe AA+US will never happen, but this is becoming a lengthy thread and I haven't read a deal killer yet.
I see "US Airways" mentioned quite copiously in this thread.
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 7:10 am
  #1469  
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Talking about Horton's initial comments that AMR should be open to all options:

Originally Posted by elitetraveler
The message should be AA management is open to combinations that strengthen its position. AA is a premier brand in the aviation world and while we believe we can go it alone, we also understand that there could be opportunities to grow via merger or acquisition. Under my leadership I will always look at all options that secure AA's future for investors, employees and customers.
Originally Posted by Clipper110A
Glad to see AA wants to stand alone, but Horton remarks a bit odd, even knowing the way media can shape the story without the fuller context.

(extract from Charlotte Observer quoting a Dallas newspaper)

"But Horton, in comments made to the Dallas Morning News editorial board on Thursday, seemed to dismiss any suggestion of a merger.
"This is not US Airways' first attempt at this. This is a small company very strategically limited, I would argue - not any international flying, hubs of less strategic importance," Horton said.
His remarks came a day after American issued a broad outline of its plan to cut costs and exit bankruptcy court as a standalone carrier. The Fort Worth-based carrier will seek to cut 13,000 jobs, about one out of every six workers, and to terminate its employee pension plan. It also plans to overhaul its fleet with more efficient planes, restructure leases and grow revenue by an average of $1 billion a year, partially by increasing departures from key cities.
On Thursday, Horton pointed to US Airways' checkered past in the merger arena.
"This will be their fourth try at this: twice for United, once for Delta while they were restructuring, now American. I would argue that this will be every bit as successful as their prior tries," Horton told the Dallas Morning News. "I'm not sure what's in the water out there in Phoenix. Maybe it's the cactus. I don't know what it is."
Originally Posted by LAXJFKesq
Stop believing the media hype. You are basing your opinion off of the most recent news stories. The process for AA just began. AA's lawyers just began their arguments for the stand alone last week. The 1113 process is not quick and is very complicated. For example, UA bankruptcy took 3 years to complete. furthermore, only US and AA's unions, for obvious reasons, are questoning AA's standalone plan. Others on the CC seem just fine with the plan.
[QUOTE=LAXJFKesq;18510698]
Originally Posted by gaucho99

I don't disagree with anything you posted. Horton/AA has said repeatedly that it will consider a merger only after it gets through chapter 11 process.
Originally Posted by LAXJFKesq
I don't feel like searching through this entire thread but as you can see from Horton's comments yesterday to WSJ, reaffirms what I said to you previously -- you incorrectly say AA missed its opportunity for industry consolidation, Horton, very surprisingly imo, said AA looked at United in the mid-part of the past decade. He also noted that AA began the round of consolidation with its acquisition of TWA and the lack of willingness by AA's unions who now blame management for missing the consolidations of the past few years. Finally, any merger involving AA would have been complicated given that AA was the world's largest airline at the time. Many of the same arguments I made to you previously in this thread.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...841489320.html

Mr. Horton on Friday said AMR is well aware of the benefits of industry consolidation and started a wave of mergers in 2001 with its purchase of Trans World Airlines. In the middle of the past decade, "we talked to nearly everyone, two (airlines) intensively," he said. One was United Airlines, he said. But American's unions weren't in favor of a combination and AMR at that time was the largest airline in the world, so there were antitrust complications.
Actually what i said is AA missed the boat on consolidation - which they did - the fact that AA talked to others - they didn't get the deal.

In terms of correctness, what's happened now is AMR is actively looking at merging within 11, something I suspected AMR management would be pressured to do - it is a 180 degrees from Horton's original position and the drum you kept beating.
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Old Jul 22, 2012, 7:32 am
  #1470  
 
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Parker Could Step-up and Immediately Morf AA

Parker has put a lot of energy into winning union support for the merger. So why not try and convince AA's top customers that a merger with US would not lead to the decimation of the industry's best frequent flyer program. US could immediately bring US Air's frequent flyer program up to par with AA's; 8 SWU's good on any fare, adopt AA's upgrade, award and redemption policies.

The next step Parker could take to win elites over would be be to implement AA's food service regime.
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