panjabi

Dear All,

March 1 is almost upon us.

What does it hold for us EXPs?

Are the EXP numbers going to go up (noticeably) or down on March 1.

On one side are the posters who think that the US economy continued its weak trend in 2011 and many corporate accounts deserted AMR and thus the number of EXPs will go down dramatically on Thursday.

On the other hand, you have those folks that hit EXP in January due to the triple EQM promotion

Will there be a noticeable difference on March 1? I have missed a lot of upgrades this year as an EXP (my experiences are documented in the EXP upgrade thread) and I am hoping that come Thursday, the competition goes down

Any data points or guesses?

Cheers!

Panjabi

jammanxc

i'd say its probably down......a lot of corporate people are jumping ship b/c of the bankruptcy....

panjabi

My guess is that the cancellation of the ORD-DEL flight will result in many EXPs being lost in March 2013.

It is my theory (and duly posted on the DEL cancellation thread) that one of the primary economic reasons for cancelling that flight was that it produced too many EXPs.

Just four flights a year at the cheapest coach fare got you EXP. Many people of Indian descent were just visiting family at lowest coach fare and qualifying for EXP. Also by using their EVIPs they travelled in J

That flight alone probably produced thousands of NEW EXPs and the impact of its cancellation will be felt in March 2013

869

Not sure why the number of EXPs would possibly increase on Thursday. No one is waiting in the wings to become exec plat next week. I would say it is far more likely that more people lose EXP on 3/1 than cross the 100K mark and gain it.

As for the theory on cancelling DEL, I am skeptical. AA easily could easily combat this "problem" you mention if they cared to do so without exiting India.

Xero

Actually you'd need 6 round trips to put that though. But of course it's much less with the double miles assuming you flew in January. Also assuming you buy the cheapest possible fare, that is $7200. When UA was rumored to have a minimum spending requirement, the threshold for 1K was $8000.

Also, if they continue to fly though other airlines in OW, they can still get EXP.

Tomorrow will be the final day that AA metal will be going to India. But I feel the route failed because of the sheer distance of the flight. Flying that long distance means more fuel (therefore more weight) meaning it takes fuel to fly that extra fuel. This makes this route very hard to make money off of. If AA really wants to offer DEL servie, they could always tag it with PVG or BRU. Though BRU, I think AA can send a 757 to DEL. The torture!

Update: After looking at prices to DEL now, it seems that flying even to Europe on AA metal and connecting to DEL is almost impossible unless you want to pay more. So maybe you're right panjabi. Force customers going to DEL off AA for most of the flight and they will leave. No more upgrade!

TheBOSman

Shhhhh, don't give them any ideas!

I also don't think they would want to duplicate Jet Airways and their service through BRU, likely wouldn't work.

And FWIW, I'm gaining EXP this year for around $2800, some people who MRed heavily in January got it for under $2000. Not bragging, just stating.

sts603

If AA was worried about too many EXPs, they wouldn't have all these DEQM promotions. The business logic of your argument fails. If there are frequent Y flyers who fly AA on this route and can make status, they are likely to take the route even if AA isn't the cheapeast every time. And who cares if they are flying J? They are only going to be in J if AA couldn't sell the seat for revenue. The incremental increase in booze provided, etc. are nothing compared to the benefit of having a customer incentivize to fly AA.

This route didn't work because it wasn't profitable. It was a huge money loser (and I know this from management sources). Too much VFR traffic down back, premium loads while good were not at relatively high fares (J was often sub-$5K which for a flight this long is relatively low) and operational costs were too high (as they are on all ULH flights). ULH flights are tough to make a profit on. Many airlines have tried and failed. Others are propped up by governments/airlines for pride reasons (e.g. TG LAX-BKK). That's not going to be the case in the U.S.

sts603

You have data to back that up?

Every major airline in this country has now gone through bankruptcy. None have gone belly up. I find it hard to believe that a corporation would cancel its contract with AA solely due to the Ch. 11 filing.

Spiff

Math isn't my strong suit, but ORD-DEL = 7483 miles, call it 7500.

1 round-trip = 15,000 miles

4 round-trips = 60,000 miles

6 round-trips = 90,000 miles

So, one would really need 7 round-trips in discount economy to make EXP, absent any promos.

sts603

At a 90% load factor, 80,500 people flew this route in a year assuming they all flew round trip. You are going to argue that thousands (so at least say like one in twenty) of those passengers were not otherwise EXP flew this route SEVEN times in a given year?? Sorry, no, I'm just not buying it. There are VERY few people who travel to India SEVEN times a year.

Xero

A 757 is better than no service at all.

869

Is it? (This is a serious question)

Krazyglue

It's 3984 miles from BRU-DEL. that's the same as ord -LHR .

alhcfp

To the original question:

The number drops. There are no March 1 EXPs. They have re qualified as of 12/31 or they are softlanded.

The number of Jan DEQM EXPs is minuscule, although on this board it would be a high percentage because we are NUTS!!

It is equivalent to asking Republican Primary Voters if they will vote for Obama in November? Headline will read "98% of voters surveyed will NOT vote to re-elect Obama.

FTers are a very skewed, sick group, of which I am happy to belong.

worldtraveler19

AGREED
I am not making any suggestions here----but other airlines already do it---giving only 30-50% of total miles for elite qualification on the ultra low fares (eg. Q or O--- though I dont think there was O for ORD-DEL)-- and this would have sorted out the issue of too many EXPs by flying from USA to DEL on AA.