Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Discontinued Programs/Partners > American Airlines | AAdvantage (Pre-Consolidation with USAir)
Reload this Page >

ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)

Old Feb 14, 2013, 9:50 am
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
MODERATOR GUIDEPOST

The AA - US merger was approved by AMR creditors and the boards of directors of both airlines on 13 Feb 2013, and announced the 14th.

There is no further speculation about whether the merger will occur; all that is pending is approval from the bankruptcy court and the regulatory authorities.

American Airlines and US Airways approve merger: just the facts, please outlines the facts we know;

AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement Discussion (consolidated) is the thread for discussion of the announced merger.
Print Wikipost

ARCHIVE: US LCC & AMR / AA Takeover / merger Rumors and Discussion (consolidated)

 
Old Jan 18, 2013, 6:35 pm
  #2881  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: BOS/UTH
Programs: AA LT PLT; QR GLD; Bonvoy LT TIT
Posts: 12,742
Back to HKG for a minute, there's already lots of competition, both in alliance and out, at the traditional gateways. Why wouldn't AA consider DFW, for example, where there may well be a large market but no nonstops? According to Boeing, the 773-ER is capable.
Dr. HFH is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 6:39 pm
  #2882  
Moderator: American AAdvantage
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
Moderator action

Just a reminder: Extensive pro- or anti-union rants, screed or discussions will be summarily deleted; these are dilatory to the topic at hand, and usually are quick to get out of hand and overly personalized. They are not appropriate to this forum.

Thanks.

/Modereator
JDiver is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 6:45 pm
  #2883  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,522
Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
Back to HKG for a minute, there's already lots of competition, both in alliance and out, at the traditional gateways. Why wouldn't AA consider DFW, for example, where there may well be a large market but no nonstops? According to Boeing, the 773-ER is capable.
I've wondered this, too. Perhaps they feel the 2x daily NRT adequately covers most Asian travel out of DFW?

But then again, rather than flying DFW-SYD themselves, they got Qantas to do it.
nall is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 6:54 pm
  #2884  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
Back to HKG for a minute, there's already lots of competition, both in alliance and out, at the traditional gateways. Why wouldn't AA consider DFW, for example, where there may well be a large market but no nonstops? According to Boeing, the 773-ER is capable.
Originally Posted by nall
I've wondered this, too. Perhaps they feel the 2x daily NRT adequately covers most Asian travel out of DFW?

But then again, rather than flying DFW-SYD themselves, they got Qantas to do it.
If there are 200 to 300 daily passengers to HKG from DFW and/or for which DFW is the logical connection, and AA can get route authority, then perhaps they'll give it a go.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 7:12 pm
  #2885  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: NYC LAX RDU
Programs: US-Plt;Concierge key; American AAirpass; Delta Silver;Starwood - Platinum; Amex Cent
Posts: 709
Educate me

Last edited by morrisunc; Jan 18, 2013 at 8:02 pm
morrisunc is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 7:34 pm
  #2886  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,714
Originally Posted by FWAAA
....and AA can get route authority, then perhaps they'll give it a go.
Can anyone who knows about this stuff let us have an idea how hard this part may be and, if it's even possible, how long the process would be? Thanks.
Stripy is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 8:28 pm
  #2887  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Dallas, TX USA
Posts: 2,115
Originally Posted by FWAAA
If there are 200 to 300 daily passengers to HKG from DFW and/or for which DFW is the logical connection, and AA can get route authority, then perhaps they'll give it a go.
It was reported a couple of years ago or so that AA was considering filing for a DFW-PEK route but that the pilot's union had nixed it in advance because it was around 15 minutes longer than their maximum flight time. DFW-HKG is roughly 1150 miles further than DFW-PEK. Has something changed in the new pilot's contract that would allow AA to fly DFW-HKG?
dogcanyon is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 8:36 pm
  #2888  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by MauiTigerShark
Can anyone who knows about this stuff let us have an idea how hard this part may be and, if it's even possible, how long the process would be? Thanks.
Good question - I have no idea.

Originally Posted by dogcanyon
It was reported a couple of years ago or so that AA was considering filing for a DFW-PEK route but that the pilot's union had nixed it in advance because it was around 15 minutes longer than their maximum flight time. DFW-HKG is roughly 1150 miles further than DFW-PEK. Has something changed in the new pilot's contract that would allow AA to fly DFW-HKG?
AA went to war with the pilots, in part, to eliminate contractual limits on duty day, and today, AA is free to schedule any flight it wants, within FAA duty day limits. If the plane can fly there nonstop, then AA can unilaterally (w/o pilot consent) begin the route.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 9:00 pm
  #2889  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: ORD
Programs: AA EXP,2MM, DL Gold,Starwood PLT
Posts: 3,876
Originally Posted by dogcanyon
It was reported a couple of years ago or so that AA was considering filing for a DFW-PEK route but that the pilot's union had nixed it in advance because it was around 15 minutes longer than their maximum flight time. DFW-HKG is roughly 1150 miles further than DFW-PEK. Has something changed in the new pilot's contract that would allow AA to fly DFW-HKG?
Folks are just gonna have to get over the DFW-HKG thing. not much O&D there and there are better options so it's just not high on the list.
grahampros is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 9:01 pm
  #2890  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Dallas, TX USA
Posts: 2,115
Originally Posted by FWAAA
AA went to war with the pilots, in part, to eliminate contractual limits on duty day, and today, AA is free to schedule any flight it wants, within FAA duty day limits. If the plane can fly there nonstop, then AA can unilaterally (w/o pilot consent) begin the route.
Thanks. I did not know that.
dogcanyon is offline  
Old Jan 18, 2013, 9:07 pm
  #2891  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Dallas, TX USA
Posts: 2,115
Originally Posted by grahampros
Folks are just gonna have to get over the DFW-HKG thing. not much O&D there and there are better options so it's just not high on the list.
And folks said the exact same thing about the QF DFW-SYD flight when it started at 5 times a week. Then it went to daily. ExpertFlyer frequently shows it at or near sold out (like tonight).
dogcanyon is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2013, 4:50 am
  #2892  
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: TYO / WAS / NYC
Programs: American Express got a hit man lookin' for me
Posts: 4,595
I believe that you don't need "authority" to fly US-HKG, you just need the planes, the slots and the demand.
joejones is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2013, 5:08 am
  #2893  
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Plano, Texas USA
Programs: AA EXP, 8 MM; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,893
Originally Posted by grahampros
Folks are just gonna have to get over the DFW-HKG thing. not much O&D there and there are better options so it's just not high on the list.
Neither you nor I know O&D for HKG but we do have to add in SE feeder flights into DFW and onward travel to KUL; SIN; BKK; Shenzin; etc.
bbkenney is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2013, 12:19 pm
  #2894  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Originally Posted by morrisunc
Dca swap was good for us and delta. Us at lga was pathetic and flights sans hubs I flew on were regularly empty.
It was certainly good for Delta; I'm not convinced it was such a good deal for US (or a combined US-AA). Once the merger occurs, AA-US will have only about 30% of the LGA slots, compared to DL's 50% share. And after the merger, AA-US will have about 50% of the DCA slots, about the same as US has right now. The combined AA-US will have to relinquish DCA slots roughly equal to AA's current holdings (as the government signalled in the DL-US transaction that 50% was about as high as they'd allow at LGA and DCA).

DL has figured out how to fill more of its new flights from LGA - shame Parker's US couldn't figure out how to do the same.

Originally Posted by morrisunc
Your taking my thoughts to literally. Us gave up on NYC but didn't pull out completely. I just don't think they should focus many resources on adding capacity to Asia. Do they even have a partner in china to feed service? Delta may be bigger than ual to Tokyo, but star alliance really shines in Asia. Only reason I keep my us membership.
So everyone agrees that AA is the smallest carrier to Asia and yet because Oneworld doesn't have a mainland Chinese feeder airline, AA shouldn't bother trying to grow in Asia? The western world should just be glad we still have the UA-DL duopoly? Sorry, I'm not buying. Yes, if you're in China and you want to city-hop, Oneworld doesn't have a partner on which you can earn miles. Since those trips are likely an infintesimal part of most business travel profiles, I'd be willing to bet that AA's lack of a China partner is inconsequential.

Originally Posted by morrisunc
Obviously I'm not suggesting aa duplicate hubs at. Clt, phx and Phl. I'm assuming they merge. You can't argue that aa only has 2fortress hubs vs 6 and 4 for ual and delta. Easier to compete when theres not much competition.
I apologize; earlier we were discussing AA's weaknesses and what AA was lacking - so I didn't put it together that you were talking about what US-AA should do after the merger. Sure, the combined airline should do what it takes to cement the fortress positions it currently has.

Originally Posted by morrisunc
Not NYC but Chicago, yes. I saw a jp Morgan presentation on this somewhere and thought it was a good idea. They will never catch up to united in Chicago. I think aa should concentrate in new yorj on where they are strong and not get into a price war with ual and delta which they will loose - trying to duplicate what their competitors have. NYC may be the largest aviation market but I can fly from rdu to lga for 200 walkup or 80 a week out vs 480 and 225 to dca. There's just so much competition in NYC.
Ahh, Jamie Baker at JP Morgan. Baker is the analyst who apologized to his clients days after the AA Ch 11 filing by telling them "We were wrong," as Baker had told them just days earlier that he didn't see a Ch 11 filing in the near future.

Jamie Baker, J.P. Morgan: J.P. Morgan’s analysts begin their note with three words: ”We were wrong.” Previously, J.P. Morgan had deemed a voluntary bankruptcy filing as highly unlikely. “‘The company has approximately $4.1 billion in unrestricted cash and short-term investments… [and] is anticipated to be more than sufficient to assure that its vendors, suppliers and other business partners will be paid timely and in full….’ So, this WASN’T about liquidity (liquidity is about 18% of LTM revenue).”
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/11/2...out-liquidity/

Whoops. Having missed the signs that AA was preparing to file Ch 11 (and told his clients a filing was highly unlikely, Baker went on to incorrectly predict that AA would shrink by about 10% while in Ch 11:

Analysts on Thursday predicted the Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier would slash its systemwide seat capacity as it dumps leasing contracts for old, fuel-guzzling MD-80s, 757s and 767s. In turn, that could leave some $1.4 billion in revenue for competitors to pick up, according to investment firm J.P. Morgan.

“We are modeling for a 10% AMR capacity cut,” J.P. Morgan analyst Jamie Baker wrote in a note. “This equates to a 1% to 3% revenue improvement per competitor in 2012.”
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2011...st-jamie-baker

Jamie Baker is a stock analyst - and I'm not sure how that makes him qualified to opine that AA should abandon CHI to UA and WN. I doubt it influenced his statements, but I have to point out that Chase and UA have a long-standing and mutually beneficial relationship, and AA's departure from CHI would no doubt benefit UA (and thus, Chase). I'm certain that if a Citi analyst said that UA and DL should scale back in NYC and leave the flying to AA, someone would point out the obvious as well . . .

Originally Posted by morrisunc
I might agree that lcc needs aa more than aa needs llc, but oneworld def needs us more than us needs oneworld. I don't even think admittance into the Atlantic jv would make it worth it.
Maybe you're right - I have no way of knowing how important US is to Oneworld or Star.

Originally Posted by morrisunc
Us feeds a ton of business to star partners in Europe. They loose those and gain, what? Ba? They can't expand at lhr if they wAnted 2. Iberia and Spain are a joke compared to all the great European star members.

Also, dca is really the gem of us airways and they get a TON of big $$$$ ual and star spenders out of dca. I was on dca to phx with daughters and I was only us elite in first. All paid ual flyers. Moving to one world hurts us at dca. Even with the merger dca becomes less valuable than it currently is because of loss of ual ff. Us has a nice niche in star.
That makes US sound like a lateral partner who bills $4 million a year yet tells you during the interview that most of his clients won't follow him if he joins your firm. If he can't bring that book of business with him, why would you want him?

As to US' position in Star, US isn't part of the immunized joint venture across the Atlantic and thus must compete with UA and LH for transatlantic business. If US was so valuable to Star, then why hasn't Star invited US to join the joint venture?

Originally Posted by morrisunc
So could lh. If things get so bad with the air markets that us files cap 11 I bet aa will be lying right next to them. Aa is still a sick puppy. I wouldn't invest a dime in the "cornerstone strategy". The only imminent labor action I see us aa unions revolting of they don't get their pay raises and Horton gets is post bankruptcy payout. I'm a betting man and l will put money on that one.

Oneworld adds nothing to us. Us could care less about Asia, the Middle East or loney non "cornerstone" elites. Star rules Europe and ual is a good partner in dca. That trumps anything one world can offer.
Difficult to counter that subjective opinion about alliance benefits. Again, it sounds like you're saying that US has a lot of business from UA customers and those who love Star Alliance. If/when US and AA merge, the combined airline will remain in Oneworld and the Star affiliation will be history. If a lot of passengers bolt because of that, then it wasn't US that was the attraction, it was Star.
FWAAA is offline  
Old Jan 19, 2013, 6:54 pm
  #2895  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
Originally Posted by bbkenney
Neither you nor I know O&D for HKG but we do have to add in SE feeder flights into DFW and onward travel to KUL; SIN; BKK; Shenzin; etc.
DFWHKG is around 20 people per day in each direction.

I think we will see HKG connected to both DFW and MIA (MIAHKG is actually the largest Southeast U.S.-Hong Kong market) within five years.
MAH4546 is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.