Assuming outbound is the 22nd, return the 2nd or 3rd?
First of all, it sounds like you were looking at seat maps, and it's possible that there were just a lot of people with unassigned seats.
Second, if you look at other Paris flights (like JFK), you'll see similar patterns (though not sure whether they emerged as suddenly) so may not be exclusive to ORD.
Third, if there were a lot of people using LHR as a connecting point between ORD and CDG then some may have been shifted to the direct flights, since AA recently downgraded all ORD-LHR flights to 763s (no F, 5 fewer J).
Finally, and this wouldn't necessarily explain what you've seen, note that ORD-CDG does not operate on 12/24 and the reverse on 12/25.
This morning when I checked, outbound availability went from 16 yesterday to 6, with return availability going from 12 yesterday to 4.
You are not monitoring availability, you are monitoring unallocated seats which is both a volatile thing and pretty useless when working out upgrade chances.
Keep an eye on the J availability (and C obviously) to get a clue about how many J seats they are still tying to sell on your flight, it will be a lot better guide to your chances than watching unallocated seats.
The above points are good. That said, I've also seen flights go from J7 to J0 overnight, then suddenly to J5 weeks later. The nature of paid business, I guess.
The above points are good. That said, I've also seen flights go from J7 to J0 overnight, then suddenly to J5 weeks later. The nature of paid business, I guess.
Or AA moving groups of pax around due to schedule changes, anticipated irregular ops or aircraft swaps.
You are not monitoring availability, you are monitoring unallocated seats which is both a volatile thing and pretty useless when working out upgrade chances.
Keep an eye on the J availability (and C obviously) to get a clue about how many J seats they are still tying to sell on your flight, it will be a lot better guide to your chances than watching unallocated seats.
Since inventory only goes to 7 (unless Nigel Tufnel is on the flight in which case I hear it goes to 11), so I do use seat maps for international J watching as an indicator for C. While not accurate, it is typically more accurate than the limited inventory numbers and has served me well.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Upgraded!
since AA recently downgraded all ORD-LHR flights to 763s (no F, 5 fewer J)
Please note that this is a seasonal downgrade. 777 service will return next summer. While, I think 1x 777 used to be preserved during the winter, seasonal downgrades to the 763 on this route are nothing new (and are certainly in line with the fractional demand during the winter on this route, F on ORD-LHR was always light).
Please note that this is a seasonal downgrade. 777 service will return next summer. While, I think 1x 777 used to be preserved during the winter, seasonal downgrades to the 763 on this route are nothing new (and are certainly in line with the fractional demand during the winter on this route, F on ORD-LHR was always light).
Still, BA flies triple-7s to ORD... I guess it's just AA... after all... who wouldn't like 1990s IFE on a Transatlantic flight??
Programs: AA EXP, US Silver, SPG Gold, National Emerald Club Executive Selection
Posts: 6,238
Quote:
Originally Posted by oneworld82
Still, BA flies triple-7s to ORD... I guess it's just AA... after all... who wouldn't like 1990s IFE on a Transatlantic flight??
Remember BA and AA have ATI - they get to coordinate on TATL schedules. Something tells me BA meal F/J was probably selling a little better. Capacity is likely rightsized for the winter market so putting BA 777s rather than AA 777s on the route is likely the better business decision. Remember in the JV, BA gets 60% of the revenue and AA gets 30% of the revenue regardless of who operates the flight. The TATL Y passenger is not going to be a driving force of aircraft decisions. Plus, even the AA 777 TVs in Y are pretty lousy with loop entertainment, I still watched my ipad the one time I ended up in TATL Y a couple months back (while I use the AVOD system when in J).
Assuming outbound is the 22nd, return the 2nd or 3rd?
First of all, it sounds like you were looking at seat maps, and it's possible that there were just a lot of people with unassigned seats. ....
... Or could just be one of those freak things...
Good guess! Out the 20th, with the the fam damily, with a solo return on the 3rd, family to follow on the 6th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark_T
You are not monitoring availability, you are monitoring unallocated seats which is both a volatile thing and pretty useless when working out upgrade chances.
Keep an eye on the J availability (and C obviously) to get a clue about how many J seats they are still tying to sell on your flight, it will be a lot better guide to your chances than watching unallocated seats.
(Sound of hand hitting head, followed by sound of head repeatedly hitting desk!)I knew that! New EF alert in place. Thanks for the refresher course!
Quote:
Originally Posted by brp
Since inventory only goes to 7 (unless Nigel Tufnel is on the flight in which case I hear it goes to 11), so I do use seat maps for international J watching as an indicator for C. While not accurate, it is typically more accurate than the limited inventory numbers and has served me well.
Please note that this is a seasonal downgrade. 777 service will return next summer. While, I think 1x 777 used to be preserved during the winter, seasonal downgrades to the 763 on this route are nothing new (and are certainly in line with the fractional demand during the winter on this route, F on ORD-LHR was always light).
Sorry, when I said "AA recently downgraded all ORD-LHR flights" I meant that at the present time all flights were 763s, not they had all been downgraded permanently. However I don't recall a time that there were no 777s on the route, and prior to ATI with BA I don't recall a time where there were fewer than two (with only the morning flight going as a 763). Then again I still remember when LON was exclusively 777 (4 from ORD, 2 from BOS, 2 from LAX, 1 from RDU and so on).
Bottom line is that premium cabins are small and therefore volatile. Even around the holidays, it's not unusual for a business to suddenly book 4-6 people to/from a location. Certainly the same for families over the holidays. Add to that schedule changes, aircraft swaps and even anticipation of those, having blocks of seats come and go means little and simply shows that you can't really game UG percentages unless you fly a great deal and watch these percentages over a bunch of flights. On any one flight, full to empty happens all the time.
Bottom line is that premium cabins are small and therefore volatile. Even around the holidays, it's not unusual for a business to suddenly book 4-6 people to/from a location. Certainly the same for families over the holidays. Add to that schedule changes, aircraft swaps and even anticipation of those, having blocks of seats come and go means little and simply shows that you can't really game UG percentages unless you fly a great deal and watch these percentages over a bunch of flights. On any one flight, full to empty happens all the time.
This is true, but I think there's another factor (perhaps a footnote to the "volatility"): I'd be willing to bet that a higher percentage of pax in J/F are on flexible fares, changeable at-will. Want to go a day earlier? No problem. Running late for the 3pm? Change it to the 4pm. There's no cost/benefit analysis over the change fee; the tickets can be changed several times without penalty (other than potential fare differences).
The 762 transcon flights probably see more of this than just about any other flights in the system, yet they also have the most premium seats by far as a percentage of total seats (just a hair under 25%). In that case, I think cabin size matters less than ticket flexibility and the ability to change flights based on changing schedules for meetings, etc.
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