thegeneral

I have to book a flight from LAX to SEA and am flexible on times. They go about once an hour. On this particular day, there are several appropriate times. Does anyone know of a way to tell what the chances are to be upgraded on each? It would greatly influence my decision. Thanks.

Eastbay1K

If you don't have access to one of the seatbucket counters, such as KVS, etc., you can try and book 7 F seats (the max allowed), and if it would let you do that (without actually booking them), you'd know there are 7 F seats available. Also, it is rare that on AS there is an F seat booked without a seat assignment, so the seat maps are decent (but not completely reliable) indicators.

beckoa

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Within 24 hours?

Search A class...

If there's A, there's U (even though AS is masking it )

dgwright99

www.seatcounter.com is free, though I recommend paying for KVS (trial version is free).

maokh

Another factor, besides seats, is how many elites are flying that route, what your fare class is, what time a day it is, and if you are silver or gold. I've seen an empty first class fill up quickly, and then i've been the only elite who got an upgrade (and practically the only in the first class).

That being said, i once did a paid upgrade on the LAX to SEA and SEA to LAX route within about an hour or two of departure....and it all depends on the time of day You can try to find an off peak time, but you may not get the best food service.

I think the flight times were somewhere around 2:00pm-ish for SEA to LAX, and around 9-10am in the morning for a LAX to SEA. Both were during a weekday.

hgdf

When the seat map starts to fill up, and U shows less than 7, I start to becoming concerned and consider upgrading to the H fare. Am I a bit obsessive? Absolutely.

Some good strategies include booking on 800/900 aircraft with seat maps which show at least 1/2 of the F seats unassigned. I usually assume that roughly 25% of the assigned elite (teal) seats are MVPGs (or companions) and the rest are my underlings.

For LAX-SEA, I suggest late morning or late evening departures to maximize upgrade odds.

COpltASgldPHX

For4 "dummy" booking on AS.com 9 is the max.

Not a bad indicator most of the time but A and U inventory don't always agree.

eponymous_coward

Generally, if a U class fare isn't available on SEA-LAX, you aren't getting upgraded (or the odds are stacked against you)- for whatever reason, F is now full or pretty darned close. This isn't SEA-EWR we're talking about here, with tons of people wanting to avoid 5 hours in coach and always the possibility of selling F late: almost NOBODY pays for full F on SEA/PDX-CA flying, because a $150 premium for a big seat, drinks and a snack on 2-2.5 hour flight is pretty silly when there's a ton of low-cost carrier options to CA (VX, WN, B6), to go along with UA as the staid legacy carrier competition. So, in my experience, AS generally sets U fairly close to F, and cheerfully gives away lots of something they aren't selling much of anyway.

Case in point: I've done plenty of same-day changes into F to SEA-LAX, as well as standby into F on SEA-LAX and SEA-BUR. Almost none of those times was I on anything other than some dirt-cheap T or G "Hot Deals" or "Bargain" fare. In fact, I generally clear into F at 72 hours on those cheapo fares, too. Also, gate plugs for "Fly first class for $50" are pretty darned common on those flights.

King_of_Kurtopia

Yep, almost always available. I just flew down there from PDX two weekends ago and got the $50 upgrade in both directions. Vegas is another easy upgrade. Speaking of Vegas...good to see you last June, eponymous_coward! Though you were a bit late to the poker tourney.

Kurt

eponymous_coward

Well... MOST days. Not Sundays OUT of LAS (most vacations end on Sunday, and lots of people buy F for Vegas for vacations/honeymoons). My upgrades then are something like 10% of the time.

beckoa

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Correct...

But all my free websites I used to use no longer produce the same data

thegeneral

How can I do that when there are no for purchase seats in F?

How does one do that?

hgdf

U is almost always available for LAX-SEA unless it's a peak travel day. If there's no F seats for sale it's polly cause prices are high and a lot of elites bought instantly upgradable fares.

I suggest looking for U availably if you want any chance at all.

eponymous_coward

Well, if there are no for purchase seats in F, you have your answer on "how to tell how full first class is": it's full (F=0), and your chances of an upgrade are 0%, unless someone fails to show for the flight or changes their ticket between now and the flight's departure.

The long and the short of it is that if the U fares/availability on a SEA-LAX flight is gone, there is a very high chance the F seats are gone (at best, there may be 1 or 2 seats, which there will already be a waitlist for, since cheap b*st*rd MVPGs/MVPs like me will be waitlisted and waiting for the 72/48/24/airport clearing of the waitlists). You are better off flying on a flight with U if you want the seats at the pointy end.

There is no way to tell you an exact chance, or even a fair approximation, because that requires knowing the waitlist and where you are on it (assuming U=0, F =! 0, there would be a waitlist for those that may not be cleared until the gate- or may be useless if F is sold). AS doesn't show waitlist rankings like DL and CO. Sorry.

beckoa

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And to search A class... Do an award F search for the date(s), flight(s) and # of seat(s)...