State of upgrades 2015
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 149
State of upgrades 2015
AS MVPG for the past 2 years my wife and i have, on average, an 80% success rate for upgrades flying out of PDX to SFO, BOS, LAS (rather routine flights sametimes every year). So far this year after about 25 segments we are about 10% on upgrades and always 1st and 2nd on the upgrade list; its been frustrating to say the least. Has anyone else experienced a change like this since last year? Any theories as to why?
#2
Join Date: Oct 2010
Programs: AS gold
Posts: 228
Yes, out of Anchorage, our upgrade percentage is down quite a bit as well over the past few years, and especially this last year. Same on connecting flights out of SEA and PDX. To their credit, AS has become quite proficient in monetizing F seats by selling them to people who are booking revenue seats in the last week before the flight departs, when they are priced not that much above the full coach fare, and also through the "upgrade at time of purchase" options.
Our strategy is to no longer depend on space available at the gate upgrades. Instead, as we usually travel in pairs, we use our gold guest upgrades on fares that we purchase well in advance using the companion ticket from the visa card. When the guest upgrades are exhausted, we pay the extra for gold upgrade fares.
We also have owned Alaska Airlines stock these last couple of years, and used the gains to pay for the higher gold upgrade fares.
Our strategy is to no longer depend on space available at the gate upgrades. Instead, as we usually travel in pairs, we use our gold guest upgrades on fares that we purchase well in advance using the companion ticket from the visa card. When the guest upgrades are exhausted, we pay the extra for gold upgrade fares.
We also have owned Alaska Airlines stock these last couple of years, and used the gains to pay for the higher gold upgrade fares.
Last edited by macfadsj; Apr 21, 2015 at 2:29 pm
#3
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 331
^ As a fellow ALK shareholder I've also enjoyed a decent run in the stock recently, though I have yet to use/equate those returns with paying for F - I still buy coach and hope for the upgrade (or use a cert)
#4
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: JNU
Programs: HH D, AS MM/MVPG for life/AL, Awesome Wipes VIP Club, NEXUS, Hertz 5-Star Gold
Posts: 2,893
One theory for this is that last year's DEQM promotions (which spawned more 75K's) and AS now matching top-level elites from other airlines to their 75K level has had something to do with your experience. Along with the monetizing previously mentioned.
#5
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Seattle
Programs: AS MVPG, Alaska Lounge, HHonors Silver, Bonvoy Gold, National Executive
Posts: 455
I predict that this year will be elite heavy and lots of missed upgrades, and it will return to a normal equilibrium next year after the matches and such have dropped down if they don't actually fly to support their levels.
If not, this is just the new normal.
If not, this is just the new normal.
#7
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Programs: Airline Free Agent, Bonvoy Platinum, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 3,811
#8
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 149
The GG upgrades we have are also just sitting there unused. We have flights BOS-PDX booked in july and since its release date there has been no U space avail for a week surrounding and all 16 are wide open. Also PDX to OGG U space has become terrible
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: PDX
Programs: AS 75K, BW Plat, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 10,724
But those routes *should* be relatively easy upgrades even if U space doesn't open up until closer to the elite windows.
#10
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow
Programs: Airline Free Agent, Bonvoy Platinum, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 3,811
I was 100% with my upgrades on the transcons (specifically SEA-BWI/PHL) until late-February. However, it's gotten worse to the point that I'm tempted to just book instant-upgradeable fares on the transcon flights now. If U space isn't available, I would take a look at DL and AA F to see what they're charging. Had a good experience with DL's F product on their 757-300s. Nice IFE system they have in the F cabin on those aircrafts!
#11
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 149
#12
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Seattle
Posts: 85
AS MVPG for the past 2 years my wife and i have, on average, an 80% success rate for upgrades flying out of PDX to SFO, BOS, LAS (rather routine flights sametimes every year). So far this year after about 25 segments we are about 10% on upgrades and always 1st and 2nd on the upgrade list;
The only times I get upgraded is if I fly on a saturday...
Whenver they started the 75K level the upgrades dropped, then when they gave everyone and their mother 75K status, the upgrades pretty much dried up for this MVPG. I still fly a hell of a lot and typicaly run 60K miles, but not enough to get upgraded .... well, on my flights, most 75Ks don't get upgraded either...
#13
Join Date: Sep 2001
Programs: Alaska Tanzanite 100K
Posts: 3,858
I think many of us, myself included, are reluctant to wait for our complimentary upgrade window and are booking instant upgrade fares. I know that on my trips to and from Hawai'i, its either $100 or $180-ish more each way - and that is NOT a difficult decision when I look at the seatmap and see that the overwings are booked or the seatmap is showing very full.
On one hand, its a great way for Alaska to get more revenue out of us elites... on the other you are shrinking the upgrade seats for a growing list of Golds & 75ks. I can't remember if I bought a higher fare or used one of my guest upgrades, but I know my flight last friday - ANC-JNU 8AM had about 25 people on the list - and I was the only one to clear (which was done within the 24 hour period of flight).
Its also making those guest upgrades even more valuable.
On one hand, its a great way for Alaska to get more revenue out of us elites... on the other you are shrinking the upgrade seats for a growing list of Golds & 75ks. I can't remember if I bought a higher fare or used one of my guest upgrades, but I know my flight last friday - ANC-JNU 8AM had about 25 people on the list - and I was the only one to clear (which was done within the 24 hour period of flight).
Its also making those guest upgrades even more valuable.
#14
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: San Francisco, CA
Programs: AA (PPro/3MM/Admirals Club), AS, UA, Marriott (Gold), HHonors (Gold), Accor (Plat)
Posts: 2,602
I think it's fair to say that 1) the airlines are getting better at monetizing first; 2) demand for travel relative to capacity available continues to be favorable for the airlines, increasing competition for those perks that are limited; 3) airlines remain relatively disciplined about their capacity; and 4) enough people have the money that they will pay that $100-200 more for one of the few first class seats.
At some point, there will be a downturn and it will get easier to upgrade. We just don't know when. I suspect we're in for a lot of coach rides for a bit if we have to watch our travel dollars.
This is for sure my worst year on AS, but I did get upgrades and a good choice of seats on my longest two flights. Hard to complain about sitting in Y for those Seattle/Bay Area Thursday/Friday/Sunday/Monday flights, because I can see from the list that I am hardly alone.
(So many of my flights this year are QX anyway. I think I'm around 50/50 QX/AS. Except for one, have had a choice of 1B or 2DE seating.)
At some point, there will be a downturn and it will get easier to upgrade. We just don't know when. I suspect we're in for a lot of coach rides for a bit if we have to watch our travel dollars.
This is for sure my worst year on AS, but I did get upgrades and a good choice of seats on my longest two flights. Hard to complain about sitting in Y for those Seattle/Bay Area Thursday/Friday/Sunday/Monday flights, because I can see from the list that I am hardly alone.
(So many of my flights this year are QX anyway. I think I'm around 50/50 QX/AS. Except for one, have had a choice of 1B or 2DE seating.)
#15
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: PDX
Programs: AS 75K, BW Plat, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hilton Gold
Posts: 10,724
1st or 2nd on upgrade list? I am averaging #17 and often #33 or so....
The only times I get upgraded is if I fly on a saturday...
Whenver they started the 75K level the upgrades dropped, then when they gave everyone and their mother 75K status, the upgrades pretty much dried up for this MVPG. I still fly a hell of a lot and typicaly run 60K miles, but not enough to get upgraded .... well, on my flights, most 75Ks don't get upgraded either...
The only times I get upgraded is if I fly on a saturday...
Whenver they started the 75K level the upgrades dropped, then when they gave everyone and their mother 75K status, the upgrades pretty much dried up for this MVPG. I still fly a hell of a lot and typicaly run 60K miles, but not enough to get upgraded .... well, on my flights, most 75Ks don't get upgraded either...