Chugach

Crescent City has endorsed Penair to begin EAS service to CEC from PDX, replacing SkyWest (link here: http://www.triplicate.com/News/Breaking-News/Airport-backs-PenAir-as-new-carrier)

Two things are interesting here...

1. KS is obviously an AS partner
2. Scuttlebutt is that KS wants to open a PDX base and possibly serve some other PNW cities left by QX after they went all Q400. Think PDT, LMT, OTH, etc. on top of CEC.

Service would be on KS' existing Saab aircraft. Exciting news if it all comes to fruition. I for one would be thrilled to have PDT back in the AS network via a partner.

PABE

Since they're doing CEC, it would be nice if they added ACV. I've missed having AS/partner service there.

VibeGuy

The EAS picture in CEC is really interesting because of the load factors and the aircraft size. They've got 74 seats each way a day now, IIRC (a morning and afternoon EMB-120) for a total lift of around 27,000 each way. Passenger numbers are around 12K, or slightly more than Wrangell. So OO is getting load factors ~50% and a subsidy of $87.50 per delivered passenger.

This is modest (about average per pax for an EAS subsidy) but what's interesting is how many passengers it applies to; a quick scan of lower48 airports with EAS shows that Crescent City is actually the largest in terms of passenger enplanements. http://www.faa.gov/airports/planning...planements.pdf

This is the same reason PenAir is in Boston - they've got the right size aircraft (the Saabs), a working knowledge of how to effectively operate EAS services (both Alaska and CONUS), and they're going to solve one of the biggest problems with service at CEC: reliability at SFO. CEC is the first flight from SFO to get scrubbed when WX or aircraft or crew shortages hit (even when OO was running a lot of EMB-120s at SFO). Flying north with an operator that is more skilled at operating in tough weather (CEC gets wicked fog, too) means more flights will get out.

I'd be really happy to see PenAir in this. The only people who aren't going to be happy about this are those connected with the California prison system, and they'll just fly into ACV and drive up.

Tanaka07

Expect PDX-CEC/ACV/LMT/PDT/RDD/OTH/YKM in the next couple years.

VibeGuy

Does PenAir currently operate in any non-EAS markets?

(My snark is that their business model seems to be to operate in EAS markets exclusively, which is a fine model (like insurers that only run Medicaid programs under contract and don't sell to other purchasers) but may not be extendable to markets that have to be competitive.)

PDT I can see happening. Still eligible for subsidy. With enough congressional firepower, LMT could come back online if MFR can avoid being classified as a "Medium Hub". While in general, communities without EAS subsidy can't get it again, there are exceptions for particularly long drive distances to medium and large hubs.

I really can't see ACV, OTH or RDD being viable, even with a 34-seat a/c. ACV has solid capacity south and has supported RJ service before, so OO isn't out of aircraft types that can serve (the retirement of the Brasilia leaves OO without a viable option for the 5,000ft runway and sketchy approach at CEC). More importantly, ACV-SFO is not at financial risk to OO - it's operated under a capacity purchase agreement to UA. OTH has two incumbent carriers and the yields in the Q200 era were pretty low. RDD is a distinct "maybe", perhaps as a PDX-RDD-ACV-PDX tag arrangement.

I'm not sure a PDX-YKM on PenAir is better than the current SEA-YKM QX service. I don't think there's enough O/D demand to do both, and it's probably not going to make the cutoff for a resumption of EAS.

frankmu

That will be interesting. What will happen to SeaPort? I don't know if we (OTH) can support more than one carrier, unless we get the LNG port.

Chugach

Numerous markets they serve in Alaska aren't EAS.

sltlyamusd

It would be cool to have Penair service out of PDX to replace some of the routes that QX used to serve (back in the Q200 and even Metroliner or F27 days).

Chugach

Sounds like that is their plan if the CEC deal comes through. They have the right aircraft for it.

oregold

Any chance of SLE being added to future service possibilities? As an AS partner it would have some legs in drawing from the Southern PDX/mid-Willamette Valley passenger pool.

Chugach

I think PDX-SLE is a relic of a bygone era. SEA-SLE on QX would be a bit more realistic, IMO.

PDXPremier

I agree....I think SLE-SEA is far more realistic, but I wish I would have been able to take the PDX-SLE during the Metroliner days....what was that, maybe 15 minutes in the air??

VibeGuy

Just under :20. When I was on that segment, it was one loop per day, PDX-SLE-OTH-SLE-PDX.

The van shuttle service that ran about 8x/day was about 55 minutes for SLE-PDX (traffic didn't always suuuuck back then), and you earned Mileage Plan miles, but didn't end up post-security so connection times were a lot longer.

IWontRegretThis

As much as it would probably never happen, I would love to see service to PDX from The Dalles, would shorten my commutes by quite a bit

PV_Premier

+1 to this ^