beckalodeon

So, I recently got back from Bali (CX F award), a destination we visit every year or two on AS points. While we were away, I received an AS email promoting a 30% bonus when buying miles. At the time, I was on the beach or drinking Bali Hais or otherwise engaged, so I ignored it.

Fast forward to today and one of my colleagues who coincidentally just got back from Bali yesterday encouraged me to do the math on the offer.

I did a quick forum search and didn't see anything quite on point, so I'm going to do the math myself right now... tell me if I'm off the rails or whether this is actually a pretty amazing deal versus paying outright for - in this case - CX J/F YVR-DPS.

A few notes before I start:
- I'm going to ignore lost opportunity cost, which I judge to be trivial because of the current minuscule no-risk returns and the effect of glorious Canadian income tax.
- I'm also going to ignore the risk that Alaska or CX might change the points cost of awards.
- Since the points are priced in USD, I'm going to allow for 2.5% in credit card FX cost.
- I'm going to ignore the positive side-effect of racking up AS points on my AS credit card while buying the points.

I need to use some kind of 'real' trip as a proxy for mileage spend, so I'm going to start with CX J YVR-DPS, which costs 100,000 points or 8,755.71 CAD for purchase outright. That (obviously) works out to 8.755 cents/mile.

While we're at it, CX F for the same itinerary is 140,000 points or $16,582.71 CAD. That's 11.844 cents/mile. (Great value if you've already got the points, of course.)

Now, based on this bonus offer, what do Alaska Mileage Plan points cost? I can buy 40,000 at a time - with a 12,000 bonus - for 1,100 USD. There's also a 7.5% tax recovery fee, and for those fortunate enough to live in BC, 12% HST as well. I'm not sure whether both taxes will be applied to the principle amount, or whether they will be cumulative, so I'm going to be conservative and assume it's cumulative:

1100*1.075*1.12 = 1,324.40 USD

I also don't know on which amount I'll be charged FX, but let's be conservative again and assume it's the full USD figure:

1324.40*1.025 = 1,357.51 CAD

That works out to 2.610 cents/mile (1357.51/52,000).

Put in context - and assuming of course that I purchased the required tranches of points - if I were to apply the purchased points towards CX J/F YVR-DPS, the cost would be:

CX J: 2,610 CAD (versus 8,755.71 CAD to purchase ticket outright)

CX F: 3,654 CAD (versus 16,582.71 CAD)

Um, what? That seems pretty incredible; am I missing something?

missydarlin

Your math seems sound other than the taxes you are missing that still need to be paid on the award ticket, and the booking fees.

International J/F is a great value when it comes to mileage redemption.

Just keep in mind that buying the ticket outright gets you on just about any plane, on any day of the week. J/F awards have limited availablity, and come with potential change fees unless you are Gold or 75K

beckalodeon

Noted.

Agreed!

Accepted.


Thanks for chiming in.

missydarlin

I was saving my miles for CX F, then I had to burn them to take my stupid kid on his stupid graduation trip in stupid coach.

beckalodeon

But you went somewhere, uh, 'smart', right? Please?

Eastbay1K

She apparently suffered for a couple of weeks in a ghetto flat in the slums of a third world country

Eastbay1K

The good news is that AS mileage purchases post almost immediately so that you can find award space with the agent on the phone, buy the miles right away, and then be ticketed (as opposed to praying to the Holy Mercy Mileage Gods that award space will still exist when the miles post).

missydarlin

ghetto flat with a stupid couch

Pulley

There was a similar post during this promotion where one FT member thought it was terrible idea. Most of us agree with you. I now 400,000+ miles to use on our next trip to BKK or DPS. Worth every penny to me. I have done this before with BA, prior to the increase in fees, and got 2 F tickets for < $ 8,0000. One F on BA would have cost $16,000.

98103

Seems to me if "stupid kid" gets mom to take him on a trip rather than saving them for herself, he ain't so stupid.

Eastbay1K

No it wouldn't, because you'd never have bought it.

The value of these premium fare tickets is of a highly restricted capacity controlled fare, which is perhaps half of the full fare or less. Further, a fair % of the paid premium cabin market is paying a discounted or contracted lower rate than the full fare.

All that said, I burn all of my miles on premium international travel.

Pulley

The $16,000 was the discounted F price. You're right I wouldn't have bought the F ticket but I have bought J fares for international travel when there have been no awards seats available.

smilee

I think the OP's thoughts are good. But a couple of other things to add here.

CX F is getting much harder to find availability for 2 lately. J, is not too bad so if you are travelling with a companion that is also something to consider.

Also, while UA & AA are not is the same league as CX, there recently was many fares Flordia/Texas/Others to PVG for just over $3000 on UA and AA in F.

There have been many deals North America - Asia in J for $2500-$3500 this past year as well (not F though)

Also better deals for miles US at about 1.1 cents per mile this fall, and Avianca Lifemiles for about 1.3 cents per mile as well that you may want to consider.

beckalodeon

Thanks for your thoughts. We've never had an issue booking two CX F seats YVR-DPS, probably because we book them way, way in advance. We've 'slummed it' in CX J several times (both paid and on award tix), and would certainly do so again if F was for some reason unavailable.

As an aside for those wondering whether it can be done, one of my FlyerTalk buddies recently (and has previously) booked 4 CX F seats JFK-DPS - he's also of the paranoid-early-booker ilk.

I take your point about the discounted UA/AA fares from the US, but since I'm also in YYJ, I'll leave it to others to find advantage therein. Of course, you basically sum up the key issue yourself ("UA & AA are not is the same league as CX"). More broadly, I've yet to find a premium cabin pricing deal from NA to Asia that works for us (due to destination/timing/hard product/schedule, etc.). Maybe we're picky. Probably.

I'm not familiar with Avianca Lifemiles, but thanks for the heads-up; I'll investigate whether they'd work for us (if anyone else cares to opine, pls do). I was a bit baffled by this: "Also better deals for miles US at about 1.1 cents per mile this fall". Can you clarify what you meant?

- beck

PS Enjoying the sideways rain?

Tide_from_PAE

US was selling miles at around 1.1 cents multiple times over the last couple of years. Many FTers have used the miles to go on some very interesting trips, check the Trip Reports section of FT for pictures. It is my understanding that US allows one to mix partner airlines on awards, so you could fly YYJ-YVR on AC Jazz and another *A airline from there.