Yes. Unfortunately. You can only put so much lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. I've heard their latest claim to having enough cash on hand to operate, but they did not say anything to convince me that they will be solvent long term. 'Sorry to be negative.
Also, until the FFA is done with their inspections, and investigations, we don't know who will be next to suffer the fate of WN and AA. Those majors who escape it, and are strong now, will become stronger.
Not a lot of people have noticed, but AirTran is doing very well these days. Indeed, despite the insane price of oil, they are managing to increase their liquidity.
Ironically, the analyst who helped trigger the panic -- the loose-lipped Ray Neidl -- UPGRADED the stock afterhours saying the airline didn't face a forseeable bankruptcy risk.
Not a lot of people have noticed, but AirTran is doing very well these days. Indeed, despite the insane price of oil, they are managing to increase their liquidity.
Ironically, the analyst who helped trigger the panic -- the loose-lipped Ray Neidl -- UPGRADED the stock afterhours saying the airline didn't face a forseeable bankruptcy risk.
A very strange story indeed.
One thing that bugs me is that when a stock started to nosedive like AAI did today they used to halt trading until the company made a comment. These days it seems these nosedives are allowed to happen and then the company has to clean up after the fact..
Cheers
Howie
__________________
United we fly together we stand
One thing that bugs me is that when a stock started to nosedive like AAI did today they used to halt trading until the company made a comment. These days it seems these nosedives are allowed to happen and then the company has to clean up after the fact..
Cheers
Howie
Good point. You would think that when a stock went down 10 or 15%, it should be halted for a half hour to ask the company whether they wished to comment.
I was watching this is real time yesterday. The stock was down more than 40% at one time. That dip had occurred in a matter of minutes. There was absolutely no news to be had anywhere. I suspected it was a panic do to the Frontier bankruptcy, because AirTran does not keep billions in cash on hand (they don't need to). But maybe I was wrong: the Frontier bankruptcy was somewhat of a surprise, since they seem to have enough liquidity for the near future (nobody expected that holdback problem). So anything was possible -- and it sure looked like somebody knew AirTran was filing for bankruptcy. How can you bet when it looks like somebody knows something you don't?
Oh, well. If anyone tells you are markets are always "efficient," you should laugh at them.
Programs: AA Platinum, AirTran Elite, Starwood Gold
Posts: 260
Quote:
Originally Posted by HookTheBrotherUp
Yes. Unfortunately. You can only put so much lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig. I've heard their latest claim to having enough cash on hand to operate, but they did not say anything to convince me that they will be solvent long term. 'Sorry to be negative.
Also, until the FFA is done with their inspections, and investigations, we don't know who will be next to suffer the fate of WN and AA. Those majors who escape it, and are strong now, will become stronger.
I have a hard time believing AirTran will suffer the same issues as WN and AA. Their aircraft are much newer and they learned about maintenance issues a long time ago. If anyone is leftover from the old Value Jet (not saying AirTran is Value Jet before anyone responds to such) days and remembers the issues that airline suffered, I'm sure they will not want to go through that again.
Location: nyc us silver (ouch my butt) co silver redicard prefered and just being me :)
Posts: 2,897
Quote:
Originally Posted by iahphx
Good point. You would think that when a stock went down 10 or 15%, it should be halted for a half hour to ask the company whether they wished to comment.
I was watching this is real time yesterday. The stock was down more than 40% at one time. That dip had occurred in a matter of minutes. There was absolutely no news to be had anywhere. I suspected it was a panic do to the Frontier bankruptcy, because AirTran does not keep billions in cash on hand (they don't need to). But maybe I was wrong: the Frontier bankruptcy was somewhat of a surprise, since they seem to have enough liquidity for the near future (nobody expected that holdback problem). So anything was possible -- and it sure looked like somebody knew AirTran was filing for bankruptcy. How can you bet when it looks like somebody knows something you don't?
Oh, well. If anyone tells you are markets are always "efficient," you should laugh at them.
I believe that markets will be "efficient" at the end of the day but even sometimes the most efficient things can be subjected to panics..
Cheers
Howie
__________________
United we fly together we stand
FL seems to have good foot holds in a few key airports, ATL, MCO, BWI, and are out of the basement at BOS, their LCC approach in legacy filled airports I feel is a good strength for them. The new article was all pros, I'm curious what the cons are. Anyone?
There were quite a few in the bad news list yesterday, Southwest,Continental, and Midwest all combined to drive airline stock down.Look at the recent volatility in the markets,with Jack Welch criticizimg Immelt at GE, the stock dropped substantially when others were at highs in other sectors.Right now, one bad report is dragging others down and airlines are under the gun from the FAA and general media.I think Airtran is well poised to continue to do well, I'd give them points ahead of the new "Delta" in most areas.
TalkBoard Member/Moderator: Southwest and JetBlue forums
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: California
Programs: WN CP & A-list, Interstate BBQ at MEM B17, CO Lifetime Presidents Club
Posts: 8,713
A relative asked me about FL's prospects for being able to honor a ticket for January 2009. My guess would be that FL has a better than average chance of surviving for a year or more, because FL is not bleeding cash as much as the legacy carriers. What do you experts think? Is it reasonably safe to buy a ticket for Christmas season travel?
__________________ Thank you for your support in the TalkBoard election!
I'm by no means an expert, but common sense would indicate that AirTran is better off financially than the legacy carriers because of 1) lower labor costs, as they've only been around for 15 years and most employees are much newer than that, even the pilots; 2) only 2 types of aircraft that are newer, more reliable and more fuel efficient than many of the planes the legacies fly; and 3) a reliance primarily on short flights in the East and South, which burn less fuel and have a higher fare per mile than longer-hauls.
And as much as people here have critiqued all the AirTran routes that are seasonal or have been pulled after only a few months, at least they're going where the money is and not continuing to lose cash on unprofitable routes. Look at MKE for example---all the West Coast and East Coast nonstops (aside from 3x/day LGA) are gone from the schedule after Labor Day, and replaced with the usual seasonal PHX, TPA and RSW flights for the snowbirds in the winter. Leisure travelers don't fly from MKE to BOS in the winter; they go to Florida. I think the seasonal strategy (not just in MKE, but in lots of AirTran markets) is brilliant; it just doesn't build loyalty for business travelers.
TalkBoard Member/Moderator: Southwest and JetBlue forums
Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: California
Programs: WN CP & A-list, Interstate BBQ at MEM B17, CO Lifetime Presidents Club
Posts: 8,713
I agree with all these advantages, particularly the one that the airline does not need to go everywhere in the US to feed its international routes.
However AirTran has one serious, serious weakness: a high proportion of leisure customers. These customers will simply stay home if prices get too high. Business travel is much more persistent in the face of price increases.
This is precisely why shutdowns hit the Hawaii market first. High fuel costs for long-haul flights filled with price-sensitive leisure travelers who have the option of staying home.
Given the precariousness of FF miles (specter of shutdown), AirTran may not be able to convince business travelers to choose it no matter what the other advantages. Those same business travelers don't realize that their legacy miles may be in just as much danger.
On balance, I agree that AirTran will outlast at least one legacy carrier if not two. That might be good enough to win this round of Survivor.
__________________ Thank you for your support in the TalkBoard election!
Now that we're having a fire sale, how many FL employees are loading up on the stock?
Before I buy stock in AirTran and I am seriously considering it, I think it would be prudent to wait and see how the 2nd Quarter 2008 numbers look. If they post another loss, look for AAI stock to go even lower. I'm just guessing here, but I believe the stock is going to go down around the 2 dollar mark before it recovers. At least, that is what I am looking for.
