robbau

Great stuff Trumpet, thanks.

Is there any way we can make it sticky?

Also just noticed that the average decline bid for AKL HKG ($367) is higher than the average accept bid for AKL HKG ($358).

I was always poor at statistics but, prima facie, it seems strange.

BbTrumpet

Sure, I'll request stickiness from the moderators.

Yes, there's a few examples of weird data like that. I think it's mostly due to small sample size (only 91 results total), but also not knowing all the other factors that go into the result, especially cabin load. I'm sure a few of the very high rejected bids are due to cabins that ended up being full.

I still wish the whole thing was more transparent. I don't begrudge them trying to make the most $ for their premium seats, but the mysteriousness is what aggravates everyone. At least send you an email if the cabin ends up being sold out, instead of the "we could not confirm..." email.

Or just go back to the old standby/confirmed system, but make the amounts variable instead of on a fixed schedule. I would give upgrades their own set of fare buckets that shadow the availability of the underlying seat. So at T-355 days you could get a standby upgrade for the old rate, but at T-3 days it might be much higher. But of course doing this would mean getting rid of the OneSmart -> APD business.

Rant over.

Trumpkin

What would be a useful addition to the chart is the cost for a gold elite standby upgrade (data in link below). This would enable a GE to help determine if they use the standby upgrade option or a OneUp. For everyone else it lets them see how the bid amounts compare to what Air NZ were previously accepting.

http://www.airnewzealand.com/gold-el...-upgrade-chart

For example, for the first two rows in the table:

The GE costs are 480 and 220 APD, so for a GE this is a significant saving plus it has the chance for them to get the upgrade confirmed much earlier than with OneUp. And for non-GE, it shows that the average cost of the upgrade has jumped significantly, which will be why Air NZ implemented the program.

BbTrumpet

Done.

I already had the chart in the database, just needed to tie it together. I will have to go back through and make sure that all the classes are correct since there could be some bids from Y->PE when they run the 777 whereas these would normally be Y->Biz, but it gives the basic idea.

Trumpkin

Thank you - that was quick work.

It is obvious that for the majority of bids that clear that you need to go over the GE standby bid cost, sometimes significantly so. This might help people with future bids.

l etoile

By request, I made this a sticky. If you want to keep updating the first post, you no longer have to worry about it falling further and further down in the forum. Should something change and the thread stop being updated, please let one of us know so that we can unstick it.

Thanks,
l'etoile
sr. moderator

Kiwi Flyer

Not necessarily. If the bids have been grossed up for status uplift, and the standby upgrade costs have not then they are not directly comparable.

BbTrumpet

Weekly update. Since the thread is sticky now, I'll just update the first post in the thread.

Happy bidding...

inthemix

Thinking of $620 LAX AKL and $650 AKL LAX

I know we cant forcast if it's accepted- but is this too much to pay for e to e+ from a pure cost/benefit? Or put another way, too much for what you get?

Config is 777-300

Thanks

BbTrumpet

No one else can really answer that for you, but personally, yes it would be too much. If you have a critical business meeting or something after the flight, upgrades go up in value, but in that case I would be much more tempted to buy PE and try to upgrade into BP for a proper sleep.

Saxphile

Do the numbers include S/G/GE upweight? This will probably be hard to figure out since the OPs may not have provided that information. But anyway, good job!

pbl22

Refer to post #5

Cappuccino

Thanks for compiling all this helpful data. I'm also interested in the likelihood of someone with a special meal request being successful with their upgrade. I've read on other airline boards that this reduces chances.

BbTrumpet

Data (first post in thread) updated March 3rd.

Happy bidding.

Gypcat

My wife (Koru) placed bid AKL-RAR $300 APD (average rating) cleared 4days out

Hopefully my RU will go through now (AirNZ said that RUs are not looked at until 3 days out and not to put in my RU until my wife hears either way) Note we were on separate booking refs for us to do this scenario