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JNB and NBO in the works?

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Old Dec 11, 2014, 6:26 am
  #1  
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JNB and NBO in the works?

An AC employee told this to my face... is it true? If so, awesome!
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 6:59 am
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7593 nm to NBO
8303 nm to JNB

according to boeing, the 789 is rated at 8300nm. I doubt JNB is possible, and I have a hard time seeing a routing with a stop that would make financial sense.
Seems NBO is technically possible, but I don't have insight in whether there is an O/D market to sustain it.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 7:14 am
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Are there any freedoms that would allow YYZNBOJNB?
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 7:16 am
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Originally Posted by YXXFlyer
7593 nm to NBO
8303 nm to JNB

according to boeing, the 789 is rated at 8300nm. I doubt JNB is possible, and I have a hard time seeing a routing with a stop that would make financial sense.
Seems NBO is technically possible, but I don't have insight in whether there is an O/D market to sustain it.
I think JNB is 8300 statute miles. If the 789 can do 8300 nautical miles, it would be no problem.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 7:17 am
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Originally Posted by YXXFlyer
7593 nm to NBO
8303 nm to JNB

according to boeing, the 789 is rated at 8300nm. I doubt JNB is possible, and I have a hard time seeing a routing with a stop that would make financial sense.
Seems NBO is technically possible, but I don't have insight in whether there is an O/D market to sustain it.
You've got your Nautical miles and Miles mixed up.

Its 7593 miles to NBO or 6660 NM. the 7878, 7879, 777L, and 777W can all fly it.

JNB is

7223 NM or 8300 Miles. Its about at the 7878 range max - keeping in mind AC has never let range max's stop it in the past (767-300 ER anyone...) 7879 has plenty of leg for - its rated to do 9500 miles, so even taking in winds and what not... 777L is obviously the best tool in the shed. It can just munch YYZ->JNB and slosh it down with a heavy load of cargo. The 777W could also do it at 9000 miles range... Granted it wouldn't be with much lift.

Keep in mind AC would know how many passengers are going Canada -> wherever connecting to another airline in the alliance and hitting JNB and NBO.

If its high enough they'll operate it themselves on a nonstop - which tends to further increase traffic.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 7:25 am
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Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
You've got your Nautical miles and Miles mixed up.

Its 7593 miles to NBO or 6660 NM. the 7878, 7879, 777L, and 777W can all fly it.

JNB is

7223 NM or 8300 Miles. Its about at the 7878 range max - keeping in mind AC has never let range max's stop it in the past (767-300 ER anyone...) 7879 has plenty of leg for - its rated to do 9500 miles, so even taking in winds and what not... 777L is obviously the best tool in the shed. It can just munch YYZ->JNB and slosh it down with a heavy load of cargo. The 777W could also do it at 9000 miles range... Granted it wouldn't be with much lift.

Keep in mind AC would know how many passengers are going Canada -> wherever connecting to another airline in the alliance and hitting JNB and NBO.

If its high enough they'll operate it themselves on a nonstop - which tends to further increase traffic.
I'd fly YVRYYZNBO monthly if AC flew it....
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 7:42 am
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Originally Posted by yyznomad
An AC employee told this to my face... is it true? If so, awesome!
Been wondering a lot about AC to JNB lately. I used to hope it would happen, starting to think it will. Would be great
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
The 777W could also do it at 9000 miles range... Granted it wouldn't be with much lift.
Not a chance 77W would be deployed JNBYYZ - it would be absolutely crippled due to max tyre speed, and hot/high conditions. Talking seat blocks approaching 200.
JNBYYZ has an ESAD around 7600nm leaving the 77L or, more likely, 789 as likely aircraft for the mission if it happens.
Originally Posted by LittleYHZ
Keep in mind AC would know how many passengers are going Canada -> wherever connecting to another airline in the alliance and hitting JNB and NBO.
The NBO element told to the OP is, IMO, a way to mitigate payload restricitons issues exJNB and actually gives this notion more plausibility.
Routing YYZ-JNB-NBO-YYZ would be likely ... I would have assumed CPT would have been the airport, not NBO.

Cannot see AC operating distinct, separate flights to NBO and JNB
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 8:18 am
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Originally Posted by yyznomad
An AC employee told this to my face... is it true? If so, awesome!
AC employees have told us lots of things to our faces over the years.
Fortunately most of us know better than to trust what we're told.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 8:23 am
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AC would really have to rely on connecting traffic from the US in order to make this one work.

It seems to be in line with their international strategy of increasing traffic through Canada.

I don't think that this is any different than them seeking new opportunities internationally.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 8:29 am
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I could see them running both these routes - NBO with a 788 and JNB with a 789.

I think there is lots of O&D both current and potential between Canada and JNB and AC could pick up lots of US traffic to augment Canadians going to NBO (first carrier offering non-stop service between East Africa and North America).

If they are planning these two, can Lagos be far behind?

Also wouldn't be surprised to see a Rouge flight YUL to Marrakesh.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 10:46 am
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JNB and NBO in the works?

Over my many years at AC, JNB is perhaps the most rumored new route. There have been reported YYZ-MAD-JNB/YYZ-LIS-JNB/ YYZ-GRU-JNB possible routings. Due to the operating economics including crew movements, this would be a non-stop or bust destination. With the intro of the 787-9, I would give YYZ-JNB 75% odds.
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 10:52 am
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Originally Posted by tracon
AC employees have told us lots of things to our faces over the years.
Fortunately most of us know better than to trust what we're told.
I think this applies to all airline employees, no matter whom they work for. Airline employees are notorious rumour mongers, as if they think working for the carrier makes them privy to the discussions in the executive suite.

On JNB, that's ULH flying, and while the 788 certainly is capable of going the distance, there are serious pilot issues that would have to be resolved. I'm not aware of whether the ULH issue stands between AC and ACPA, but I wonder if a JNB service could be launched without a letter of understanding. That being said, a JNB service might succeed because it's a pretty good yield, and a lot of the available connections over Europe are awful - NA flights tend to arrive in the AM while most departures to JNB or CPT depart in the evening. The shortest connecting flight I have seen is 21 hours via Dulles on UA, with a 1-hour stop in Dakar. Add an extra hour for the joys of US pre-clearance at YYZ. But most elapsed trip times are 25-40 hours. Emirates, for example, is, grosso modo, 24 hours southbound, 30 hours northbound.

Is JNB a possible choice? Sure. But I wonder if it's a wish list destination of AC's. It sure is a wish list destination of many here.

Last edited by Sebring; Dec 11, 2014 at 11:06 am
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 10:57 am
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Originally Posted by ACYYZ/SD
Over my many years at AC, JNB is perhaps the most rumored new route. There have been reported YYZ-MAD-JNB/YYZ-LIS-JNB/ YYZ-GRU-JNB possible routings. Due to the operating economics including crew movements, this would be a non-stop or bust destination. With the intro of the 787-9, I would give YYZ-JNB 75% odds.
What other city pairs would you say are likely?
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Old Dec 11, 2014, 11:08 am
  #14  
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Originally Posted by tracon
AC employees have told us lots of things to our faces over the years.
Fortunately most of us know better than to trust what we're told.
Which is why I am asking here...
yyznomad is offline  
Old Dec 11, 2014, 11:09 am
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Just to clarify, the multi-stop routings were rumored in years past. I would say more China, India and a return of YYZ-ICN with stepped up frequency over the 3-weekly seasonal summer service seen in years past. For purely selfish reasons would love year-round YYZ-FCO.
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