Originally Posted by
GUWonder
Sounds like a mutual understanding about the upcoming reality; for I am recognizing the above mentioned type of "cuts in the FF programs" when I say such "cuts in the FF programs will come around sooner, be worse and be worse for more people, than would be the case in the absence of this 'merger'".
There is no recognition, just pontification.
You can't recognize something that has not yet happened.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
DL or NW, pretty much the same could be applied to either. In any case I wouldn't compare DL or NW with GE when GE has a history of better management and of having larger proportion of its revenue stream coming from business lines in far less commoditized industries than is the case with the airlines.
Many of GE's industries are commodities or commoditized. The point of
Klm is Dead - Long Live KLM's analogy, which you completely missed, was not to draw a direct comparison, but to note the exponential advantage holding a #1 or #2 market position holds in a competitive marketplace.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
Sure, if we were to suspend disbelief and take as a given both:
1. that NW would necessarily go into Chapter 7 or 11 before DL in the absence of this "merger"; and
This would almost certainly happen. Have you read any of Jamie Baker's research notes lately? What about Moody's ratings? How does a B-1 compare to an A-1?
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
2. that a "merger" of this nature necessarily avoids more of NW FFP account holder miles (and other benefits) from being further devalued (which, like at your extreme, includes, but is not limited to, seeing the miles and other benefits being wiped out under Chapter 11 or Chapter 7).
Everyone should operate with the assumption a chapter filing could result in the elimination of accrued frequent flier benefits. Account holders are essentially unsecured creditors.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
However, if we don't suspend disbelief, then those above two "givens", jointly or separately, are not necessarily a given.
Of course they're not a given. They just happen to be a much greater certainty.
Originally Posted by
GUWonder
To sum it up from my vantage point, I don't necessarily take it as a given that this "merger" will be the magic bullet that puts an end to the woes of either DL or NW or of both DL and NW (unless considering a suicide or suicide pact useful to one or both of these parties); and even if it were a magic bullet for either DL or NW or for both DL and NW, it would still be the case that the "cuts in the FF programs .... will come around sooner, be worse and be worse for more people, than would be the case in the absence of this 'merger'". The airlines have far bigger problems than the FFPs; however, as is typical with desperate, frightened and foolish actors, they will pursue courses of actions -- inside and outside -- that don't necessarily turn out to serve their interests or the interests of those who support the "leadership" that will waste (and has wasted) plenty of resources and will squander (and has squandered) goodwill by going about a fool's quest anyway. In the pursuit of noble aims, noble results are not necessarily a given.
This vantage point conveniently ignores the strategic goals of the merger, powerful ancillary players and market dynamics. In summary, it is a flat and limited perspective that excludes basic information about finance, the aviation industry and forward looking analysis.