What would you do? LHR-JFK, Cash for TP vs. 2-4-1
(title should also say, "with chance of Bronze-to-Silver transition")
Thanks for any advice. I appreciate there's a huge amount of YMMV/"how much is an Avios worth to you" etc. around this, but thoughts/sanity check welcome.
Wife and I are lowly Bronzes at 385 TP (thanks to a recent CX flight to Japan) with a 80 TP CE trip coming up.
Separate to this we might go to NY in October.
Our options are
- to use Avios (we have over 400,000) plus 2-4-1 voucher to fly CW both ways (100K points, voucher, + £1K in taxes)
- to pay WT+ in cash (£1.6K) on the basis that it's a shortish flight, and gets us 180 TP which should put us in Silver for 2018
- to wait and see if there is a flash sale for an Oct/Nov flight.
Questions
- is it silly to pass up a companion voucher opportunity, and pay £600 extra for one class down, just to get Silver and a bit of lounge access? (I suspect it is, as we don't actually travel all that often so it's more of a fetish than a practical accoutrement)
- if I go with the voucher + avios option, what are the chances (statistically that is - I won't hold you to it) that there'll be a flash sale that will have me kicking myself that I could have gone CW in cash and got best of both worlds?
- Conversely, if I go ahead and book into CW with points and voucher, is there is reasonable bet than an F upgrade opportunity will open up on this route? Impossible to say for sure I know.
- Finally - my account page says I just need 215 TP (by Nov 8) for Silver. I read somewhere about making 4 BA flights - as it doesn't say anything about this under 'my account' can I assume I'll get to Silver if I get the TP, or will I find I've failed to qualify because (for example) my Japan trip was with Cathay?
Sorry for all the questions! Suggestions with any are very welcome.