Originally Posted by
GCab
or am I making 2+2=5?
Absolutely you are.
The central HfP conjecture that 2-4-1 are targeted for downgrades simply isn't correct (indeed someone in BA involved in the process submitted a post to HfP to say so). Moreover, on a route with such a huge number of seats, regular services, alternative carriers under the JBA and any amount of no-shows, JFK must be the least downgraded route in the network.
The main reason for downgrades on this (and any) route is people getting to the airport late. And you're far more likely to be given an involuntary upgrade than a visit to WTP.