Downgrading of reward flights - particular risk on LHR-JFK / JFK-LHR?
Thinking of using a Companion Voucher and/or Avios for a trip in November.
I've seen a couple of pieces on Headforpoints (I think) about people getting involuntarily bumped down a class, and reward flights being prime targets as they only have to reimburse you the difference in Avios or (in the case of 2-4-1) nothing at all as it's a freebie.
Coupled with this, I was reading Simon Calder on why BA don't use A380s on the London-New York route (i.e. that their business travellers want a higher frequency of flights so they can just walk into the next departure when their meeting in town finishes, rather than fewer bigger planes departing less often).
Putting this together, this sounds to me as if there might be a particular downgrade risk on this route (assuming it does happen at all), i.e. you're booked into CW on a reward ticket, someone with higher status or simply paying full price on this popular route, arrives and needs a seat, and you find yourself downgraded as they are worth more to the airline / they have a reservation guarantee etc.
Does this happen in practice, and am I right that this route might be more of a risk than others, or am I making 2+2=5?