Originally Posted by
TJtv
Color me also confused. I thought we knew exactly where the plane was at the time of the last ping(8:11am) already and that the only uncertainty is what the plane did after that time.
No, they don't know exactly where the aircraft was, not even close. The calculations done by Inmarsat necessarily had to make assumptions about the speed and altitude of the aircraft. Based on an assumed altitude, they produced tracks for different speeds and altitudes, two of which are shown on the map, one for 400 kts and the other for 450 kts. If the aircraft was flying higher or lower than their assumption, the tracks are incorrect. Additionally, they don't know how much longer the aircraft flew after the last ping, although they are apparently making an assumption that the last ping, which was incomplete, occurred at the time the aircraft was going down. Note also that they had to make some assumptions about how many hours of fuel were remaining when the aircraft started on the southerly heading. Depending on how high the aircraft ascended, it wasted some the fuel that would have normally been used for cruising. So you can see why the search area is not a neat little box with a red ribbon around it.
Originally Posted by
Versions
If the plane was moving FASTER than they previously thought, then wouldn't the search area move south instead of north? It's not as if the plane ran out of fuel and stopped flying sooner than we thought-as we have known for a while the plane kept going until at least 8:11am. Perhaps I am missing something.
I agree, this is strange. The argument is that the faster the aircraft flew, the less range it would have. However, as you point out, the time of the pings is known so the aircraft must have been airborne until at least the time of the last ping. If it was travelling more quickly, you'd think it would have gone farther.