Originally Posted by
BearX220
They're hardly racing to do so. Not only because it's the last variant on a planform conceived 45 years ago, but because the topography of world airline networks has changed so much since then. With few exceptions, the future belongs to smaller, lighter, faster planes plying so-called long, thin routes. The VLA market opportunity is very limited and the A380 was first mover. The A380 will probably never feature significantly at more than a dozen superhub airports worldwide.
And the current state of the world's economies isn't helping that thought either. Yes, I realized that my wish to see the B747-8's continuing the great heritage of the -47's would be limited, but I think that the very limited usefulness of the A380, as to the airports it can fly into and the costs assoociated with it, would leave some room for more airlines to order the new -47 model to replace their outgoings ones. U.S-AUS/NZ and US-Asia or longer European routes where the B787's may have the range but not the capacity of the B747-8's would hopefully justify the their cost, although not with as large a fleet of them as in prior years.
Our first flight on a B747 (that appeared to be brand new, right out of the box) was an EI flight from JFK-SNN in 1971. I've often wondered if that particular aircraft was later the ill-fated plane that became TWA 800, as I believe that the one that went down off Long Island (according to reports I read at the time) started its life flying in '71 with the EI logo.
Time will tell...but I hope the new model makes it!
bj-21.