Originally Posted by
FWAAA
I disagree with both of you; the problem with your "odds" calculations is that they assume that all J seats are available for upgrade - that AA doesn't sell any of them. But that would be false.
Just for kicks, let's assume that AA currently sells, on average, 15 of the 30 J seats. That leaves 128 econ passengers hoping to score one of 15 upgrade J seats.
With these A321s, let's assume that AA will sell the same number of J seats, on average, or 15 of the 20 available. The future looks like five J seats for those 72 econ passengers - looks to me like the odds have worsened. And if AA can sell, on average, five more of the J seats (not out of the question if AA takes business away from UA and DL), then the upgrade chances just went to zero. Good for AA, not so good for us upgraders.
You are correct. The upgrade odds will worsen for Y upgraders. There will almost always be a few upgrades available (AA would be stupid to cut F/J capacity down to a number too close to actual demand and risk losing any potential paid F/J), but the days of abundant upgrades are over.
AA is also perfectly happy to cede the 1,000 lowest paid Y pax to other carriers. All that matters is having large enough planes to accommodate paid F/J and the high fares Y pax. This demand is more than covered by 102 seats. Focusing on MCE in Y only confirms this -- they know most elites won't be getting upgraded, and they want to avoid the elite moving to competitors. Even under the most unlikely scenario of a booming economy and increased business travel this strategy still garners the traffic they want, and they'll simply cede the lower fares. Industry attempts in the past to capture the "most" passengers clearly is a failed strategy.
Overall quite a sound business strategy.