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Old May 20, 2010, 7:46 pm
  #13  
ffI
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: WAS
Programs: AA EXP2M, DL 1MM DM ext, UA PP <=> HH G/Marr PE/Hyatt G/IHG P FT RA ( Recovering Addict)
Posts: 4,596
Originally Posted by KMC1982
Hey guys. I am a somewhat frequent flier (30-40 segments/year), but have never booked a flight using miles. I have some upcoming personal trips where I could use miles, but all of the flights are under $300, while the low cost miles options are sold out, meaning it'd be 40k miles to book. Seems better just to pay the money and save the miles for a tip overseas, no?
Let me give you some examples of miles value

Look at the details on this one. Biz Class award to Madras for friend

-120k miles - 235$ taxes = 3240$ + 30k miles (20k travel + 10k Biz bonus if paid ticket)
Add 120k miles each => -235$ = -3235$+150k miles
Add 3235$ each => 3000$ = 150k miles
= 2 cpm value out of 1.5 cpm cost = 0.5 cpm free money.
Real out of pocket cost = 1.5 cpm anyway to get a mile or point. (miles bought in March)

For the economy ticket, it is a slightly different equation.
-80k miles - 150$ = - 1350$ +20k miles
Add 80k miles to each side => -150$ = -1350$ + 100k miles
Add 1350$ => 1200$ = 100 k miles.
Or, you get 1.2c of value for each mile, which itself has an opportunity cost of 1.5 cpm.
The best you can buy miles on sale is about 1.15c each like right now with the share promo.
Usually it is 1.5c each.
So my advice was to save miles for later for C class use or when ticket prices are very high..

There is however hidden value in miles.
I had booked the ticket on AF to BLR and then on Kingfisher, but I was able to cancel for free (DL DM)
Now the second trip is in Y on LH with US miles (fully cancellable) - almost as good as buying a full Y to avoid cancel fees (although if you misconnect, there will be no other airline to help you and get money back)
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