Originally Posted by
hfly
Yes but overall percentage-wise 1world has had far more turnover than any of the other alliances (Star and 1world have each lost three, however Star has twice as many members so percentagewise the loss has been less). CO is to date the only partner that ST has ever lost (yeah Copa will probably go with them), while 1world has lost Aerlingus, Canadian and Swiss (very very briefly), Star Alliance has lost Ansett, Varig and Mexicana.
Interesting theory but not sure anyone can predict the future impact on the make-up of each of the alliances due to:
- bankruptcy (Ansett, Varig)
- takeover by an airline in another alliance (Canadian)
- conversion to LCC (Aer Lingus)
- leaving because the alliance no longer made sense compared to when you joined it (Mexicana, Continental, Copa and theoretically Swiss)
If you were to use the time over which these happened, you'd say SkyTeam's rate is increasing:
*A - 2001 (Ansett) 2003 (Mexicana) 2006 (Varig)
OW - 2000 (Canadian) 2008 (Aer Lingus)
ST - 2009 (Continental) 2009 (Copa)
but that statistic probably also isn't relevant to how their make up will change in the future.